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August 20, 1980 `Mr. Dick Nordine ~ RE: INCIDENCE OF SMOKING AMONG YOUNG ADULTS/COLLEGE STUDENTS SUMMARY: Retabulation of an HEW longitudinal study [1] done in early 1979 indicates that only 14.5% of male college students, 17-23 years old, smoke. This rate is lower than that reported for any 17-23 groups examined, including female college students (20.8% smokers). Highest incidence is found among out-of-school young adults, with 36.5% incidence - more than double the college student rate. While this HEW study does not report from a perfectly representative sample (as discussed below), its results should have sufficient validity to be a preliminary guide. Tables showing rate of consumption and "tar" level of brands smoked for this age group are appended (Cl and C2) to further assist in the marketing decision at hand. No other specific, current data was located in the time allowed. HEW DATA [1] INCIDENCE= % CURRENT REGULAR AGE AGE AGE AGE SMOKERS AMONG: 17-19* 20-21 22-23 17-23 N Present College Students 17.1% 14.7% 26.3% 17.7% 362 Male 15.6 12.5 16.7 14.5 179 Female 18.2 17.5 37.0 20.8 183 All Present Students 18.8 14.6 23.6 18.4 597 l 17 3 11 8 2 18 16 0 300 Ma e . . . . Female 20.3 18.0 28.2 20.9 297 Former College Students * 35.3 16.4 20.5 181 Male * 25.9 17.3 28.6 83 l * 5 41 2 15 18 4 98 Fema e . . . All Out-Of-School 38.8 41.0 31.3 36.5 597 Male 40.8 36.6 35.1 37.0 308 Female 36.9 45.5 26.4 36.0 289 All 24.6 30.3 29.4 27:5 1194 Male 24.0 26.0 31.7 26.6 608 °Female 25.3 35.0 26.9 28.3 586 548 337 309 1194 tr 0 * Sample size under 25 - not meaningful.

DEFINITIONS: College excludes trade/technical/vocational schools: (Similar data is available.) Current Re ular Smoker smokes one cigarette or more eac week. Incidence (%) is number of smokers in cell divided by survey population in cell times 100% METHODOLOGY: Telephone interviews by Chilton Research with those respondents to HEW's 1974 teenage smoking study who could be reached in 1979. [See Attachment A.] RELIABILITY/TREND ESTIMATORS The ability to reach members of the 1974 nationally representative sample of the teenagers in 1979 has skewed the data reported to some extent. Of the 46.8% of the original sample who were re-interviewed in 1979, HEW states that there was skewing toward: • younger ages, e.g., proportionately more 17-19 year olds than 22-23; • more males, especially in the older YA brackets (overall 51:49 male:female) • fewer persons who were smokers in 1974. (HEW speculates that "smokers tend to be more independent.") The latter skew may produce incidence rates which are below the true national values. Reported rates for college students apparently are based on a proportionately larger sample (30.3% of 20-23 year olds) than in the at-large population ages 20-24 (about 20.3%) [2]. This and the male skewness may only emphasize the groups of special interest to you Overall reported incidence for the age group is fairly consistent with data from other, fully validated HEW studies which show: • 32.1% self-assessed "regular smokers", ages 17-24, in 1978 [3]; • 22.8% overall and 19.3% male smoking incidence (as defined above) among ages 17-18 (4].

If the findings of the HEW longitudinal study are accurate, incidence among college'students has dropped to half the rates observed by TIME Market research in 1970 -- 45.8% overall and 61% for males [5]. Yet this trend,is in line with HEW's own conclusions which show a marked decline in male incidence, with a level trend among females, and which link high educational aspirations to low prevalence of smoking [see attachment Bl-B5]. If I can be of further assistance on this question, please call. Diane S. Burrows attachments SOURCES: [1] U. S. Department of HEW, National Institute of Education. Teenage Smoking: Immediate 'and Long Term Patterns, 1979. Derived from Part II: Longitudinal Study, 1974-1979, pp. 141-151, exhibits C-6, C-7. [2] U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979. Derived from pp. 29, 159. [3] U. S. Department of HEW, Public Health Service, Office of Health Research Statistics and Technology. Advancedata, Number 52, September 19, 1979 and unpublished detal.l from this same study. [4] HEW. Teenage Smoking..., op cit. Part I: National Patterns of Cigarette Smoking, 1979, esp. pp. 7-8. [5] The Cigar Institute of America and TIME Magazine. 1970 Colle e Smoking Survey. TIME Marketing Research Report U606, [19701.

h 11.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE SAMPLE For example, they are more likely t~escri~e more independent than nonsmokers. bef pl Ee to work, more likely to express a desire for independence, more likely to leave school, etc. The follow-up group is, then, not completely representative of the group of 1974 interviewees from which it was drawn, nor is It repre- sentative of 17- to 23-year-olds in 1979. Comparisons of the 1974 sur- vey sample with the follow-up re- spondents are reported in Exhibit 11. Characteristics of the 1979 Follow- up Respondents The 1979 follow-up respondents were categorized into four groups on the basis of their 1974 and 1979 smoking behavior: (1) those who were regular smokers in both 1974 and 1979; (2) those who were smok- ers in 1974 but were nonsmoker's in 1979; (3) those who were nonsmok- ers in 1974 but were smokers in 1979; (4) those who were nonsmok- ers in 1974 and 1979. For the pur- poses of this analysis, only current.* regular smokers a_q_df,~ine~,cLj n Pa rt T~,~were cateorized a smokers; a o ef~i rs, including experimenters, ex-smokers, and.occasional smokers, were categorized as nonsmokers. reAor/dent /Gvh parent, unless smokers tend to be th Comparison of the Follow-up Re- spondents with the 1974 Survey Sample Of the 2,553 teena9erinter- viewed in 1974, 11194 46 ° wer.._e interviewed again in 1979. A slightly 1arger proportion of -5oys (47.6o) than of girls (45.9%) was reached for reinterview. There was also a relationship between age and ac- cessibility for reinterview; older . teenagers were less accessible_. For boys, the proportion interviewed dropped from 48.8% of those who were 12 to 14 years old in 1974 to 44.9% of those who were 17 and 18 years old then. The decrease was even more pronounced for the rls =-fr-&m 517. 2o for theyoungest -age group to 39.5% for the oldest age group. This was to be expected since the older teenagers were more likely to have moved away from the parental home and, for girls, to have changed their names through marriage. Since smbking behavior is related to age, fewer of those who were regular smokers in 1974 were followed than of those who had never smoked or who had only ex- perimented with cigarettes. Even in each age group, however, J74 smokers were le~s ikely to be avail- able thar~.uierp-.,.clotls~kers.. The reason for this is not readily ap- ~ FaA, U-ekAi I Because of the nature of the analyses in this study, N's are neces- sarily small; percentages are reported, then, on N's less than 25. The reader is cautioned, in reading these percentages, to examine the N's before making interpretations of the data. t~,QQ.a .,A.V.. 4tX_1,0 .. 11.a..~-~ t~~ 142 ~ c ~ ~ ,~,. r ~ •~ ~ '<' . f : ~,;~-`. 3"s!lf;s;j'." M7r~ ' .~r Mr~. , . ,,r .; •~' . . . 1. ~ f •ff. L``~: .l.1 ` 7 • '..7 ' .t-' '• , ,r , . . - - _ _ • . _ . . ~ . • . . . , , . . :r4'4^'~?'ryqti«t+~(~.¢+r}+~~ .r-~ f. t < • .. . . . ' • , g -

0 had sp yrfi to bot,/ king--c 'rung ca chroni One- so i o.~ e a 0 ~ es in, t question edge of ific diseas related nary he er, and bronchiti ~ird of t eone wit group heart di ase; ird had )kfiown some ~e with ng nd nearl one-hal had omeone w' h emph ema or is. bronc Gvledge wa ore of th reporting these illl youn arno ses r age g group, lavior 4 slightly ore to cla' knowl each of the t eone widely cigarette disea mphysem (Exhibit s ith 'r-olds with t es king inokers nsmokers meone with The relationship between edu- cational attainment and smoking change is relevant orily if each age group is considered separately. For example, nearly three-fourths (70.8%) of those in the 17- to 19- year age group are still in school, while fewer than one-fourth (23.3%) of the 22- and 23-year-olds are still in school. Exhibit 13 shows the per- centage of those at each educational level who fall into each of the four smoking change groups (Exhibits C-6 and C-7 give details). Of the 17- to 19-year-olds still in school, half are in high school, the other half are in college or vo- cational school. Of those not in school, the majority (59.4%) finished high school, 31.3% did not complete high school, and 9.4% attended col- lege. Comparing those still in high school, below grade 12, with those who dropped out before finishing high school, we see a large differ- ence in smoking behavior; 17.0% of those still in school at this level are smokers, while 38.0% of those who dropped out are smokers. While the numbers of cases are small (47 and 50), the difference is statistically significant. Also, those who are still in high school are less likely to be smokers than those - who finished high school but have not continued their education (19.5% and 40.0%, respectively). Of those still in high school, none are in the S--+-S cate- gory; that is, none was smoking at the time of both surveys. Of those not in school, who have not gone beyond high school, 9.0% are classi- fied in the S-S category. Only 2.3% of those in college were in the S--o -S category, and only 14.8% were in the NS--e S category. There were too few in this age group who had attended college but were not now in school for comparison. Overall, the difference between those in school and those not in school was pronounced. Those not in school had a higher percentage in the S-S category than those in school (8.1% and 1.3%, respectively) and a high- er percentage in the NS-+-S cate- gory (30. 6% and 17. 5%, respective- ly). The total proportion of smokers was more than twice as great among those not in school as among those in school (38.8% and 18.8%, respec- tively). A much smaller proportion of those 20 and 21 years old were in school (40.6%), which, of course, is to be expected. Nearly all of these (94.2%) were in college; the others were in trade schools and the like. Of those not in school, about two-thirds did not continue their education beyond high school. There was little difference in smok- ing categories between those who had not gone beyond high school and those who had. There were, however, larger differences between those who were still in college and those who were not in school. Of ,; .,.,.~•.,. . ...-,., .-.w 9'!-- ,rt.. y~ a+it '# l.rcT ^!ti++f'. '•r y. C - ':~. 147 t

those not in school, 41.0% were smokers, while among those in col- lege, only 14.7% were smokers. The differences were also apparent when change categories *were considered. Those not in school were much more likely to have been smokers five years ago as well as now. Of those not in school, 16.5% were in the S-S category, compared with 3.1% of those in college. More of the for- mer were in the NS-P - S category also--24.5% and 11.6%, respectively. Most of the 22- and 23-year- olds (76.6%) were not in school. Of those who were, 79.2% were in col- lege, and the• others were in some other type of school. In this age group, those who were still in col- lege had a higher smoking rate than those who had attended college but were no longer in school (26.3% and 16.3%, respectively). The highest smoking rate was among those whose education did not extend beyond high school (41.7 0) . (See Exhibit C-7.) These findings bear out those in the national survey of teenagers which revealed the relationship be- tween educational aspirations and smoking behavior. While there may be sex differences, our sample is too small for an age/sex break to be mea n i n g f u l. Measures of the dynamic of teenage smoking have bee de- scribed earlier. (See Part , Page 20.) These measures ar available for both the 1974 and 79 national samples, as well as f that part of the 1974 sample thaas interviewed a second time in 1'979. For this lat- ter group, two~<ets of measures are available--tho,se obtained in 1974 and those obtai ed in 1979. The means of those Acores are reported for each of e smoking change groups, along h the means of the scores of the total 1974 national sample a of the total 1979 national sampiof teenagers (Exhibit 14). If the teenagers who w,.dre ac- cessible for follow-up interviews were a representative sample of the total 1974 group, the mean 1974 scores for the follow-up group should be similar to the scores of the total 1974 national sample. From Exhibit 14 we can see that the means of measures otained in 1974 for both smo~ers and nonsmokers are very close on all factors except Factor 4, Pationalization. On thi factor, s res for smokers e slightly gher for the total sa ple than fo the follow-up sample and scores for nonsmokers are ightly lower for the total sample an for t.~e ollow-up sample. No e,xplanation i readily available for/this slight deviance. In comparing 1979 follow-up sam, the 1979 cohort s we do not expe, correspondenc sample is fi surprising correspon the inst teenage adults fact th p scores of the Fe with those of ple of teenagers, the same kind of since the follow-up years older. It is there is as much as there is, since ument was designed for 's rather than for young The means on the first four , however, are similar.//For s next two factors, on w "rson with a high score se ge smoking and the teena somewhat negatively, ch a teen- e smoker he older smoker has slightly tyi'gher scores and the older nonsmoker slightly lower scores than t6e 1979 teenage sample. The youq~ adult is appar- ently not seei statements, thus, he is negative ager w Feelin for himself in these is the teenager; ore willing to express titudes toward the teen- smokes. On Factor 7, Toward Authority, scores oth . smokers and nonsmokers 151 cn 0 M W

Exhibit 1 . TEENAGE CIGARETTE SMOKING AGE BY SEX BOYS N Smoking Status 13 14 15,16 17,18 N N Never Smoked or Experimented Only 1968 876 93.1 465 1970 512 90.5 268 1972 533 91.1 273 1974 496 90.7 253 1979 527 92.8 284 75.2 344 54.7 70.5 178 48.1 68.3 211 54.4 69.5 202 55.3 75.3 254 68.1 1968 25 2.7 34 5.5 •71 11.3 1970 21 3.7. 35 9.2 52 14.1 1972 20 3.4 50 12.5 56 14.4 1974 28 5.1 45 12.4 44 12.1 1979 23 4.0 38 10.1 46 12.3 Current Occasional Smoker 1968 13 1.4 14 2.3 24 1970 1 0.2 3 0.8 2 1972 5 0.9 6 1.5 4 1974 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 1979 0 0.0 4 1.1 1 Current• Regular Smoker 1968 27 2.9 105 17.0 190 1970 32 5.7 74 19.5 138 1972 27 4.6 71 17.8 117 1974 23 4.2 66 •18.1 113 1979 18 3.2 51 13.5 72 Total 1968 941 100.1 618 100.0 1970 566 100.1 380 100.0 1972 585 100.0 400 100.1 1974 547 100.0 ' 364 100.0 1979 568 100.0' 377 100.0 3.8 0.5 1.0 1.6 0.3 30.2 37.3 30.2 31.0 19.3 629 100.0 370 100.0 388 100.0 365 100.0 373 100.0 Chilton Teenage Telephone Surveys--1968, 1970, 1972, 1974, Total N. 1685 77.0 958 72.8 1017 74.1 951 74.5 ' 1065 80.8 130 5.9 108 8.2 126 9.2' 117 9.2 107 8.1 51 2.3 6 ' 0.5 15 1.1 6 0.5 5 0.4 322 14.7 244 18.5 215 15.7 202 15.8 141 10.7 2188 99.9 1316 100.0 1373 -100.1 1276 100.0 1318 100.0 1979 7 . ~ 0 ~ . . - ... . . . w ~ ' ~ hM

Exhibit 1 (Cont. ) TEENAGE CIGARETTE SMOKING AGE BY SEX GIRLS Smoking Status 1211304 15,16 Never Smoked or Experimented Only N , b N 1968 919 97.9 552 84.4 1970 536 95.0 312 81.5 1972 569 95.3 312 77.0 1974 495 90.2 250 69.3 1979 514 92.3 319 81.8 Ex-Smoker 1968 7 0.7 25 3.8 1970 8 1.4 15 3.9 1972 .11 1.8 26 6.4 1974 26 4.7 33 9.1 1979 19 3.4 23 5.9 Current Occasional Smoker 1968 7 0.7 14 2.1 1970 3 0.5 1 0..3 1972 0 0.0 1 0.2 1974 1 0.2 S 1.4 1979 0 0.0 2 0.5 Current Regular Smoker 1968 6 0.6 63 9.6 1970 17 3.0 55 14.4 1972 17 2.8 66 16.3 1974 27 4.9 73 20,2 1979 24 4.3 46 11.8 Tota l 1968' 939 99.9 654 99.9 1970 564 99.9 383 100.1 1972 597 99.9 405 99.9 1974 549 100.0 361 100.0 1979 557 100.0 390 100.0 17,18 462 73.0 264 70.0 277 66.7 228 62.1 239 63.9 38 6.0 22 5.8 30 7.2 42 11.4 34 9.1 15 2.4 5 1.3 3 0.7 2 0.5 3 0.8 118 86 10 9 9 633 10ZS:0 377 99.9 415 99.9 367 99.9 374 100.0 Total 1933 86.8 1112 84.0 1158 81.7 973 76.2 1072 81.2 70 3.1 45 3.4 67 4.7 101 7.9 76 5.8 36 1.6 9 0.7 4 0.3 8 0.6 5 ~0,4 187 8.4 158 11.9 188 13.3 195 15.3 168 12.7 2226 99.9 1324 100.0 1417 -100.0 1277 100.0 1321 100.1 Chilton Teenage Telephone Surveys--1968, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1979 8 ..~'~d`~~TZ!~,

2 advancedata Table 1. Percent of persons 17 years and over, by cigarette smoking status; sex, and ago: United States, 1970, 1974, and 1978 (pata arc hased on household interviews of the civilian noninstitutionalized population. The source of data, sampling, and limitations and qualifications of Data are given in the technical notesl Sex and ago Both sexes All ages 17 years and over ................. 17-24 years .................................................. 25-44 years ..........................................:....... 45-64 years .................................................. 65 years and over ......................................... Male All ages 17 years and over .............. 17-24 years ..............................................:... 25-44 years .................................................. 45-64 years .................................................. 65 years and over .........................:............... Female All ages 17 years and over ................. 17-24 years .................................................. 25-44 years .................................................. 45-64 years .................................................. 65 years and over ....................................... Present smoker 1978 33.7 32.6 39.0 36.5 16.5 37.4 33.9 42.3 39.9 22.9 31.4 35.9 33.4 11.9 1974 1970 1974 Never smoked 1978 1974 1970 1978 Former smo Percentl 36.8 36.9 45.6 44.1 45.1 20.3 36.2 35.4 58.7 54.6 56.3 8.4 44.5 44.6 41.0 37.1 36.6 19.5 37.7 38.6 36.9 37.5 39.7 26.0 17.3 16.1 55.4 59.4 62.6 28.0 42.7 4 3.5 P ~ 34.7 30.1 30.9 27.4 40.3 .2 .2 56,4 48.5 49.3 9.2 50.7 50.9 33.1 26.0 25.8 24.1 42.6 44.8 22.6 21.0 23.1 36.9 24.8 23.1 30.3 33.6 -•37.3 46.4 31.9 31.1 55.3 55.7 57.5 13.9 32.6 30.5 60.8 60.0 62.3 7.5 39.2 38.8 48.5 46.6 46.6 15.2 33.4 33.0 49.7 51.6 54.8 16.2 12.0 11.0 72.9 77.4 81.4 15.2 1 Excludes persons with unknown smoking stahus. more c•ontplctc edit of the data, plaltnccl for later this year, may proclucc slight v.u•iations between these fil;ures ancl final results. A mt>rc cictailcd report in Series 10 of Vital and Ilcaltlt Statistics, scheduled for release next year, will include thc combincd cigarette smoking results frtrttt thc 1978 aand 1979 surveys. llata from this latest sutvcy show that about I out of 3 adults (33.7 percent) in the U.S. civil- ian nottinstittttionalixcct population arc cigarette smokers-down slightly from 36.8 percent in 1974 tuttl 3(i.9 pc•rct:nt in 1970 ((tables 1-3). 'I'his latest estimate represcnts thc lowest llro- p<rrtion of cigarette smokers, as a group, since thc 1950's. The 1974 aand 1978 results were obtstinctl from sclf-t•cspunclcnts wltilc in 1970 proxy respondents were also used. '1'hc rcccttt decline itt cigarette stntlkcrs hsts tlcc•ttrrccl liri- marily anlan8 mttlcs (from 43.5 pc•tccnt in 1970 tto 37.4 percent in 1978). In contrast, the pro- portion of female smokers 17 ycctrs of age and 19.2 9.2 18.4 24.8 23.3 27.2 11.2 23.3 36.3 41.6 12.5 7.5 14.2 14.9 10.6 er 1970 over has remained about tile same (31.1 pcr• ccnt in 1970 and 30.4 percent in 1978). A person is classificd as a present cigarette smoker if he reports that ltc has smoked at least 100 cigarettes (five packs) during his en- tire life and that lic is presently smoking. Present cigarette smokers are further classified as rct;• tilar smokers and occassional smokers. A present occasional smoker smokes cigarettes now but volunteers that lle has ncvcr smoked reg- ularly whcn asked: "About how old were you when you first started smoking cigarettes fairly regularly?" Present regular smokcrs are all other present smokers. A similar dichotomy is ttsccl to classify fc~rt»cr cigarette smokers. ''hc diffci•cnccs which hstvc occurred in tite cigarette smoking hal~its of men and wt~mctt from 1970 to 1978 arr also apparent in c•sti- matcss uf persons wht, have never smoked. While the proportion c~f aclult tnalcs whtl have never smoked is incrc•asini;-30.9 11rrc•c•ttt in

Exhibit 16 NUMBERS OF CIGARETTES SMOKED PER DAY Boys Girls Total 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 Current Ex- Current Ex- Current Ex- Smoker Smoker Total Smoker Smoker Total Smoker Smoker Total N $ N $ N $ N $ N % N % N % N % N % ~~LiOC c2T05 Number of Cigarettes Less Than Every Day 11 6.8 30 28.0 41 15.2 14 8.4 18 20.7 32 12.6 25 7.6 48 24.7 1 - 4 Per Day 2 1.2 6 5.6 8 3.0 13 7.8 9 10.3 22 8.7 15 4.6 15 7.7 5 - 9 Per Day 14 8.6 9 8.4 23 8.6 10 6.0 11 12.6 21 8.3 24 7.3 20 10.3 10 - 14 Per Day 41 25.3 13 12.1 54 20.1 45 27.1 19 21.8 64 25.3 86 26.2 32 16.5 15 - 24 Per Day 65 40.1 33 30.8 98 36.4 69 41.6 23 26.4 92 36.4 134 40.9 56 28.9 25 - 34 Per Day 17 10.5 5 4.7 22 8.2 11 6.6 3 3.4 14 5.5 28 8.5 8 4.1 35 - 44 Per Day 10 6.2 8 7.5 18 G.7 3 1.8 4 4.6 7 2.8 13 4.0 12 6.2 45 - 54 Per Day 2 1.2 , 1 0.9 3 1.1 1 0.6 0 0.0 1 0.4 3 0.9 1 0.5 55 Per Day and Over 0 0.0 2 1.9 2 0.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 1.0 Total . 162 99.9 107 99.9 269 100.0 166 99.9 87 99.8 253 100.0 328 100.0 194 99.9 Base: All current regular and ex-smokers. 73 14.0 30 5.1 44 8.4. 118 22.6 190 36.4 ' 3G • 6.9 25 4.$ 4 0.8 2 0.4 522 100.0