Youth and Marketing
External Forecast
Abstract
External forecast produced by RJR. Charts consumer demographics and projections for smoking ages, (including 14-24) values, sex roles and smoker environment. Charts demand for menthols by African Americans, whites, and young adults. Charts competitive market and new brands from Philip Morris and market share by brand. Forecasts taxes, future bans on advertising, and incidence of smoking. Discusses new product, Real, to compete with PM's Merit.
User-Contributed Notes
- 14-24 year olds
- p. 3
Fields
- Notes
Original document code was 1009.
- Company
- R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.
- Major Subject
- Advertising and Marketing
- Cigarette
- Target Market
- Adults
- African American
- Young adult
- African American
- Minor Subject
- Advertising and Marketing -market share
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --adult (25+ years old)
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --young adult (18-24 years old)
- Cigarette -consumption
- Cigarette -market share
- Cigarette -sales
- Youth (<18 years old) -data
- Youth (<18 years old) -smoking incidence
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Brand
- Camel (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
- Marlboro (PM)
- Merit (PM)
- More
- Salem (RJR)
- Vantage (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
Document Images
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TIIE~`CO' ~~PEETITIVE ENVlliONMEN
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HEIR~, -
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r LOR1LLARDw WILL,. I~ECOME_ y INCREASINGLY,, COfdPE7ITIVE.
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BRANDS ARE ALL POSITIONED IN THE LOW-TAR,CATEGORY;,;,,A~
HEY ARE :`CURREN7LY, ADDI WG ' SALES~ F1ANP0WER, ".
BROWN ~ WILLIAMSON WILL HAVE TO BECOMECOMPETITIVE'THROUGH
NEW BRANDS. THEY HAVE NEW MARKETING MANAGEMENT AND THE
RESOURCES~ . FIOWEVE,._ R, . WI .....,..7HOUT aA° RESOUNDING SUCCESS,.,-THEIR
SHARE-WILL DECLINE,
A1IERICAN ,.AND LIGGETT WILL DECLINE#
.
~ .
SHARE OF MARKET BY COMPANY
R. J, hY.;oLDS
P. MoRRIS
3 & W'
AMERICAN T0?ACCO'
P. LORILLARD
LIGGETT a :',YERS
L69B 90*4S
33.4 :~ 34.5 35.2
26.5 ~ 27.8 28.5
15.7 14.9 : 14.6
12.5 `: 11.4 10.7
8.2 8.0 7.8
3.7 - 3.4 ' 3.2
INDUSTRY''; GFO{VTH, e{J1 lL: ~SLOW~'=AND - T H E '1?ND%USTRY~YCOULD' FACE `'A Y4F
R
A
OF ZERO GROSlTli {1 1 THI N THE~ 1JEXT 5 YEARS, A 110-GR0IJTH I PJDUSTRY
IS FORECASTED IN THE MID-I98Q'SI'
2. INCIDENCF OF SMOKING IS
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PROJECTEb TO DECLINE wim I: DeTr
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EC
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INCRE E
91
FO.qECAST ASSUMPT I 0NS
B hrrN I 1`!G
SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
~;ALiH CONCERNS
t,y --=-GORIES
rOrULATION MIX
1965-1970"
HEAVY
MILD RECESSION
MAJOR EFFECT
~
1970-1975
DEEP ~ECESSION
F
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LI GHTER
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FULL FLAVOR FULL FL,AVOR
POSITIVE
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POSITIYE
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TAXES
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SCC-Ir".L ACCc'TAtiCE
HEALTH CCNCEPNS
CATEGOP. I ES
POPULATIMN +'IIX
LOLB 90fi0S
MI L dRECESS I ON = DEEP RECESS I ON -~
MAJOitEFFECT
LI GHTER
FtlLL ILAVOR '
FULL FALVOR
pOSITIti'E pOSITIVE
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,
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l ~tL 1 LLI~I,..
1965-1970
41
39;2 -- 34,2
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n nl;~1U:,L CHG. 1(2.7)
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A.`;NUAL VOLUME
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RAK C, F -2.5 To 1.7
Z0L8 90fi0S
1970-1975 ' 11176-1982
34,2 - 32.2 32.2 - 28:5
(1.0) (2.0)
27.0 - 30.3 ~: 30. 3- 33: 5
+1.9
+2.6
1.0 To 3.8
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MENTHOLS SHARE
1~2
32.3
EXTRA LONG *CIGARETTES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW BUT AT A SLOWER '
.. ~ .:. ~ '..4:.. . ..: - .
FULL-FLAVORED CIGARETTES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY.
-PION.-F.I LTERS. SHARE..:
FULL-FLAVOR SHARE,.
~yi. " i'.. ., .
61,6 44.6
LuZ
36,2
HE MEN1 HOL CATEGORY hII LL SHOW GOOD GROWTH DUE LARGELY TO
ITS PROFILE OF YOUNG ADULT SMOKERS. SEVERAL NEW BRANDS ARE ,
EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THIS CATEGORY@
RATE THAN IN RECENT PAST,
at..~qjr* ~4~d ,
fll& C~I GllRE~TTE~°I I4DUS~TttY~1 ENV I ROPIh1Et~T~ ~~
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NON-FILTERS WILL DECLINE TO LESS THAN 42 OF THE MARKET BY. 1987 1
19Z ..
30.7
jI1F l.Otl-TAR CATLC-OZY 1;ILL Gf?d,~ i:) OF TitE F:..RKET
ii Y
=q
EXTRA LONG SHARE 26.0
19K 18~2 19$Z
15.9 41.8 53,9
-f
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ULTRA Lows
LQWER THAi.',.,Mo,ST
'! .. .
FULL FLAVOR Low TARS
u" l~rlidi
i9k
35.8
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