Youth and Marketing
External Forecast
Abstract
External forecast produced by RJR. Charts consumer demographics and projections for smoking ages, (including 14-24) values, sex roles and smoker environment. Charts demand for menthols by African Americans, whites, and young adults. Charts competitive market and new brands from Philip Morris and market share by brand. Forecasts taxes, future bans on advertising, and incidence of smoking. Discusses new product, Real, to compete with PM's Merit.
User-Contributed Notes
- 14-24 year olds
- p. 3
Fields
- Notes
Original document code was 1009.
- Company
- R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.
- Major Subject
- Advertising and Marketing
- Cigarette
- Target Market
- Adults
- African American
- Young adult
- African American
- Minor Subject
- Advertising and Marketing -market share
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --adult (25+ years old)
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --young adult (18-24 years old)
- Cigarette -consumption
- Cigarette -market share
- Cigarette -sales
- Youth (<18 years old) -data
- Youth (<18 years old) -smoking incidence
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Brand
- Camel (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
- Marlboro (PM)
- Merit (PM)
- More
- Salem (RJR)
- Vantage (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
Document Images
THE.CONSUMER EuVtRONP1ENr
P .,..~.~..~. . , K ,~::,
~E1SOGRAPH I CS
VALUES
THE SAtOKER ` ENVI RONMENT
THE:w EUS,I NESS~fNV I RONFIENT A
THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
~ , ~, ~~~
.,
-~ ~
f~i"
~
r <
~,
~'f['~t:=7~,,,rt'.tT.L~;~-'r.'~S'?c~Qa
THE CIGARETTE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT
p. R,JR,. FORECAMr. F~
. 4:~l °+ v.
=S
r:a
l+
4
.
~
~-
0
[i,~}' rr..
.-
,l ' ~- S 1
R ~ ' ~ ~ ' ~~_ ~-.. ~ ~~I i ~ r
~ ~~
TICONSUh1CR 01VI ROtJMENT
F ~ -
tDE4NOGRAPHICS)
~-
.
T;;1`ZE:';~'+I~4
. -.E . F.~.-.~
SAfOKING AGE POPULATtptt',!;LL'GROl9:'ATMA:SLOtrE(I RATE,.
. ~ .
. . i . ' . . .- . . A, i . . . .
ANNUAL GROWTH
.
a
SF10}C1NG AGE POPULATION
1970 `-=1 J76~ , ; l g77=1982,
'
e - -------
.
1982-1987
+ 1.7 + 1.3 + 9
2, THE SMOKING AGE POPULATION WIL!. BECOME AtORE MIDDLE AGED"hfITH,
THE BULK OF
THE GR011TH
25-34 BErwEEN
1975-1982 AND IN THE'
35'49
GROUP FROM 19821987,
-
GROwTH"
14-2y
25-3y
35-49
50+
1975=1982
1982-Z9E7
s
.
tDEMOGRAPII l CS ` .w < CO
THE SOUTH'AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPEPIEtI. '
CE.POPJLATION
0Y.'TH AT A FASTER RAT£. .
THAN , THE, BALANCE '0F THE-: U,~ S;`
r.P~l TN ",,
19 ~8? 41982= 1987
.,~~~...
,.0 y. THE GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED
THE GROWTH OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, MUCH OF THIS GROWTH WILL
OCCUR IN S INGLE PER30N HOUSEHOLDS,
1975 1980 1985
NOUSf ~{QLDS,. (ni LL1otIS)F
84.7
ANNUAL GROWTH + 243 + 1.9 + 1.6
SINGLE HOUSEHOLDS (MILLIONS) c
,.6
18.2
21,0
-1.,014o PIP qll a
5. THE U. S. POPULATION WILL BECOME WEALTHIERs
i~ FArdIL1ES EARriING $15«
r.rr D(WEs~ ( cvrr sTf,w -r
.I9A DOLLARS)
1975 ~ 1980 1985
110% 53%
59Z
EW VALUES l4ILL CONTINUE TO EXPAIJD
.:
-70; OLDER . POPULATION SEGMENTS
A1:7H0UGH TiHE T07PL GROWT
H ItJ NEW VAL
UES WI
L
L
} IS A RESU ;;IIE MINlMAL, :; TH1S
.: x T OF~. TN~ ,, PIEWw ;VA~ UE~. .
-sE I NG'.° REF' .
S~OF ~4:=, .;.
~ LACFD" '~~Q
Y
a`
A
LACK
- OALS
. .. AMONG YOUTH
.
DE-EFIPHASIS OF SYSTEWORDER IN LIFESTYLES CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING TOLERANCE OF ALTERNA7E°LIFESTYLES,
. %t STRONGLY IN TREND -
I'~OVCLT; .A~ID C ;. ;
! " { NANGE
LIVING FOR TODAY
TOLERANCE FOR
CHAOS/DISORDER
26
I$
DESPRF~.fl 74~Al Iru "cn..~..~:.
23
EST
+~4 I t~PHY$ I CAL~ NEA N "~"~'~
~
~. . ~ ~:
INTER
IiAS SLOWED,
---.. .,......,,~
PHYSICAL FITNESS AND
. 1)(.{_L ,P,r ! NG
t<~. 1 N TREN~_
1973 197y 1975 1976
3!1
35
36
36 *
; .-
~~
t
~T1IE~'CONSUNIERFENVIRONMENT- '
<
LUES.";
ONT
LNUED
14
.~~.
1y
INTEREST IN Ai7RACT_IVENESS OFr PIiYSICAL APPEARANCE CONTJN~U,ES,l
;
J 0`
a
5,
;
PHYSICAL SELF-ENHANCEMENT
:
I97~ x wi `1974 1975 y+:v 197611
43 42 44 y6'
.
. 4:YF~ ; "'AA,
TRADITIONAL SEX ROLES CONTINUE TO BLUR AS WOMEN BECOME.MORE
IMPORTANT TO WORK FORCE,
BLURRING OF SEXES
a 4.. ', s.' ta ,
FEMALE CAREERISM
+
~~4NGLY i N TRFRD
42
A
~.-. ~-
.
SMOKERS'. CONCERNS OVER THE ALLEGED HAZARDS OF SMOKING IS
,HIGH AND,EXPECTED TO'FCONTINUE TO`INCREASE.
CONCERNED OVER SMOKING
CLAIMED ENJOYMENT OF SMCKING 1$ EXP!'CTED TO DECLINE AS A
RESULT OF THE:SOCIAL'.ACCEPTABILITY ISSUE,
r
.o,
'ENJOY SMOKING"
56
54
53
THE PERCENT OF FEMALE SMOKERS WILL SHOW SLIGHT INCREASES
THROUGH 1982 AND.THEREAFTER STABILIZE AT 48% OF TOTAL SMOKERS.
19 55~1968wr+~~972~'~:197~"~""198~~`~87
MALE 65 57 55 54 - 52 52
FEMALE.. 35 43 45 46 48 48
TIlE St~10KER ENVI RONriEtJT
`~
;AtCONT1NUEIi)r;i
WOF
EXPRESSED CONCERN~OVER HEALTH WILL PLAY A MORE'IMPORTANT
BLACKS WITH
A~,STROi~u PRQPE.~ + Y~
FOR v«T1ENTNOLS AND' N F~
IGH
ROLE IN THE CIGARETTE,MARKETO
MENTHOL SHARc
"CONCERNED OVER HEALTH"
BLACKS % INDUSTRY VOLUME
z
45
68
9
x
c,26
67
THE YOUNG ADULT'MARKET'IS IN. `TRANSITIr
.ON IN BRAND P.~<REF"RENCE
(AND IN VALUES).SUGGESTING MAJOR SHIFTS WITHIN THE,NEXT 10 YEARS.-
SMOKERS '
18'24 YEARS..
. . ,
; .. .
SN'
zR
A
ES
MARLBORO
WINSTON
KooL
SALEf-1
31.2
.13,9
14,5
10,7
70.3
HE ECOPJOMY WILL'EXPERIENCEy'A`MILD RECESSION IN 19~4
.,,
RECOVER,: AND THEREAFTER SHOW -REAL GROWTH OF 3X. , AtIOi'NER, MILD
RECESSION IS,,LI9ELY BETWEEN J982,~'AND 19878'
SOURCE:`:- R.JP`'..INDUSTRICS"ECONOMIC C~!!TLOOK '
f'
.
. . iy". ~.
THE INDUSTRY IS EXPECTED TO FACE CONTINUED REGULATORY RESTRAINTS:
A). POSSIBILITY OF FEDERAL TAX ON HIGH TAR AND NICOTINE
- PRODUCTS OR AN OUTRIGHT BAN COULD HAPPEN IN 1980'S:
B) INCREASE IN FEDERAL EXCISE TAX-IN I9S0'S,
C)
POSSIBLE BAN ON
ADVERT I S I NG, OR FURTHE,R~ RES7R I CTI ONS~;~t~-~
I NC2EASE I N`S I 2E OF WARN I NG NOT I CE, BAN OF USE OF FIODELS,
3,* CO coULD BECOrfE AN ISSUE WITH THE FTC PUBLISHING CO NUMBERS
.
IN FALL OF 197a,
.
,
-
V
y. RESTRICTIVE ShOKING LEGISLATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
PARTICULARLY AT LOCAL.LEVELS.
THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY AND OTHER GROUPS WILL INCREASE
THEIR PRESSURE ON THE."SJCIAL ACCEPTABILITYff OF CIGARETTE
-
SMOKINGI
(i. A!J `~t;lJ;;C(_ COULD ~'~,?iORSE A It S/lf'E" CIGAttETTE,
Bha!. .~ Y F~n(^"
~q..'sa~ti~AC.'s ~+. ~z- > ~,~-.a~r ~ :a~.x* , , r ~r~^.r
,COMPETI T I IIE,,Et111I f;OfJf1EIITwr
~4 . z f - .<... . . . ~r . . . =.~
~ '~"r '~S ,~s~.,- ;ti-.:. x-. - f ~_ rti^: r, ]l': ~'- 'R {., .r , . , i .y .i , F~~[ i ~"~ :.
~"'>~"~Y. ~ ~~,. e: .'[-.~
92 99 .:..99:,
REYNOLDS AND PHILIP MORRIS COULD HAVEOVER 70% OF THE
1fARI~FT RY 1987.
V;.r:< <.. ,
.~ I1~KEL S~iAQF
1977 '1982 1987
.RJR 33.4 35.8 39.2
.~- P.M. 26,5 29.8 31.9
59.9 65.6 71,1
..
P.M. (ESTABLISHED) . '
P.M,. (NEW)
1. r- THE ;.NUt48ER ,.OF :I TEh1S ON ;-.THE,ItiARKE~ , S13 0ULD, . INCREASE THROUGH .f~
: . . .. . -.:. . :.,.e :. ~ r1 .. , . .. .-... . . . . -- .~ . , . v,, i.,1 . .. .
. 1982`AND'-COULD STABILIZE TIiCREAFTER.
3. PHILIP MORRIS'WILL HAVE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE IN
NEW BRANDS TO SUSTAIN THEIR GROWTH.
1977 1982
26.2 ' 26.3 + .1
.. 3 ' 3'.*5 +315
26', 5 29.8
If. PHILIP MORRIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A 5 MG. PRODUCT IN
1978 AND A SOLO MENTriCL IN 1979.
f
1970 1977 '. 1982 '1987
MARKET SHARE
r
e
.:
~~' ?t;
;
..
.
+' +
~.
;
,~..~J~ -.-~;i~:~., ..~:~,, ,
~~
:PNHLIP' MORRIS tdEIl"BRANDS
f
- _ . . .. . . - . ~ . . ~
..,~,
WILL BE;MORE;ACTI,VE`.IN, NEW BRANDS
~, ,.:. . , ..
,
.
Pl'I HAS SPINOFF OPPORTUtIITIES (B ~11, VS, HARLBORO)
PM HAS EGUAL I TY I N RESOURCES AND I S WI LL I NG TO COMt1I T
.
RESOURCES.
PRODUCT SUPERIORITY (CONSUMER) ORIENTATION AND HAS
PHILOSOPHY THAT NUMBERS ARE NOT EVERYTHING.
5. PM I S AHEAD I N TAR/N I COTI NE TECHNOLOGY.
MERIT IS THEIR BIG HORSE AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO i2IDE-
IT HARD.
~x . .. ,~,..
ur. , .
PM HAS NO.BRANDS WITH "LOWER THAN P10ST" PERCEPTION AND
IS WEAK IN.THE MENTHOL CATEGORY.
='MERIT SUCCtSS
F EDED f'' FOR'CORP,QRATE `GROIiTH'° '
,
S
C!~
in WI~''y-~~1~Fin{.
TIIE~`CO' ~~PEETITIVE ENVlliONMEN
a
HEIR~, -
D
,.
6,
r LOR1LLARDw WILL,. I~ECOME_ y INCREASINGLY,, COfdPE7ITIVE.
~
BRANDS ARE ALL POSITIONED IN THE LOW-TAR,CATEGORY;,;,,A~
HEY ARE :`CURREN7LY, ADDI WG ' SALES~ F1ANP0WER, ".
BROWN ~ WILLIAMSON WILL HAVE TO BECOMECOMPETITIVE'THROUGH
NEW BRANDS. THEY HAVE NEW MARKETING MANAGEMENT AND THE
RESOURCES~ . FIOWEVE,._ R, . WI .....,..7HOUT aA° RESOUNDING SUCCESS,.,-THEIR
SHARE-WILL DECLINE,
A1IERICAN ,.AND LIGGETT WILL DECLINE#
.
~ .
SHARE OF MARKET BY COMPANY
R. J, hY.;oLDS
P. MoRRIS
3 & W'
AMERICAN T0?ACCO'
P. LORILLARD
LIGGETT a :',YERS
L69B 90*4S
33.4 :~ 34.5 35.2
26.5 ~ 27.8 28.5
15.7 14.9 : 14.6
12.5 `: 11.4 10.7
8.2 8.0 7.8
3.7 - 3.4 ' 3.2
INDUSTRY''; GFO{VTH, e{J1 lL: ~SLOW~'=AND - T H E '1?ND%USTRY~YCOULD' FACE `'A Y4F
R
A
OF ZERO GROSlTli {1 1 THI N THE~ 1JEXT 5 YEARS, A 110-GR0IJTH I PJDUSTRY
IS FORECASTED IN THE MID-I98Q'SI'
2. INCIDENCF OF SMOKING IS
~
T
PROJECTEb TO DECLINE wim I: DeTr
... .,
,
D TO~~~; aS
EC
TE
INCRE E
91
FO.qECAST ASSUMPT I 0NS
B hrrN I 1`!G
SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
~;ALiH CONCERNS
t,y --=-GORIES
rOrULATION MIX
1965-1970"
HEAVY
MILD RECESSION
MAJOR EFFECT
~
1970-1975
DEEP ~ECESSION
F
.1
LI GHTER
~
~
FULL FLAVOR FULL FL,AVOR
POSITIVE
~.
:
POSITIYE
t
f
q
t
TAXES
I-COt4CmY
BtiNN I tIG
SCC-Ir".L ACCc'TAtiCE
HEALTH CCNCEPNS
CATEGOP. I ES
POPULATIMN +'IIX
LOLB 90fi0S
MI L dRECESS I ON = DEEP RECESS I ON -~
MAJOitEFFECT
LI GHTER
FtlLL ILAVOR '
FULL FALVOR
pOSITIti'E pOSITIVE
I
,
l-
l ~tL 1 LLI~I,..
1965-1970
41
39;2 -- 34,2
h
n nl;~1U:,L CHG. 1(2.7)
RA;TE
A. 4::~~,V'nL CHG.
.~
~
25; - 27.0
~+1.0
A.`;NUAL VOLUME
' ~
HC
~
RAK C, F -2.5 To 1.7
Z0L8 90fi0S
1970-1975 ' 11176-1982
34,2 - 32.2 32.2 - 28:5
(1.0) (2.0)
27.0 - 30.3 ~: 30. 3- 33: 5
+1.9
+2.6
1.0 To 3.8
. No EST.
~
C3_
{/ +
.zP
Ab
S?
1
ltl
, K1I
W
Q1 l.D
O Co
Z=
7 ~--i M
.
.J
O
~ to
.
~ , N
~ . ~--f 00
~ Ql
1--- --1
N
~ 'CV
tD
=
~ .
.
CO
CYI
W
F--
F-
W
n=
4
N
00 -i CYI
.
V Q1 wt
4
~ .-i N
LO
.aJk°, :ry s." .
N~ II
/ ~\
JV W
. M\
W
W
N.
I
MENTHOLS SHARE
1~2
32.3
EXTRA LONG *CIGARETTES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW BUT AT A SLOWER '
.. ~ .:. ~ '..4:.. . ..: - .
FULL-FLAVORED CIGARETTES WILL DECLINE SHARPLY.
-PION.-F.I LTERS. SHARE..:
FULL-FLAVOR SHARE,.
~yi. " i'.. ., .
61,6 44.6
LuZ
36,2
HE MEN1 HOL CATEGORY hII LL SHOW GOOD GROWTH DUE LARGELY TO
ITS PROFILE OF YOUNG ADULT SMOKERS. SEVERAL NEW BRANDS ARE ,
EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THIS CATEGORY@
RATE THAN IN RECENT PAST,
at..~qjr* ~4~d ,
fll& C~I GllRE~TTE~°I I4DUS~TttY~1 ENV I ROPIh1Et~T~ ~~
3;
~
it
O
U
~
~
y
f
C
NTtN
ED
-~.
I
NON-FILTERS WILL DECLINE TO LESS THAN 42 OF THE MARKET BY. 1987 1
19Z ..
30.7
jI1F l.Otl-TAR CATLC-OZY 1;ILL Gf?d,~ i:) OF TitE F:..RKET
ii Y
=q
EXTRA LONG SHARE 26.0
19K 18~2 19$Z
15.9 41.8 53,9
-f
;,
ULTRA Lows
LQWER THAi.',.,Mo,ST
'! .. .
FULL FLAVOR Low TARS
u" l~rlidi
i9k
35.8
t
85MM 18,4% 34.2% ' +95%
109MM 4,1 7,6 +9y%
MENTHOL 6, 6 1u, 4 +129%
pd
J NOIJ-I'IENTHOL 15,9 27,4 +81%
TOTAL Low TAR 22, 5% 41, 8X +95%.
.i
1.
GAMEL KEGULAR WILL CONTINUE TO.RECEIVE NO.SUYPORT AND WILL
r
,CONTINUE: TO LOSE VOLUME AT. THE SAME ° RaTE. - THIS {1ILL- RESULT._,
I N SMALLER SHARE LOSSES AS THE BRAND EtITERS THE LATTER STAGES
CAMEL FILTER WILC LOSE SHARE AS THE_NORMAL,FLAVOR.FILTER ..
CATEGORY DECLINES. THIS LOSS WILL ACCELERATE AS ARESULT OF
CAMEL LIGHTS INTRODUCTION Iri 1978,
10% ANNUALLY$
FROM CAMEL FILTER AT 33%. CAMEL LIGHTS WILL RECEIVE MOST OF
TNE CAFIEL. BRANDS*"SUPPORT IN"FUT.*,,
URE YEARS AND WILL GROW ABOUT
CAMEL LIGHTS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL AND WILL DRAW COMPETITIVE
SMOKERS AND FEMALES. INITIALLY THE BRAND WILL CANNIBALIZE'
3Y
LIGHTS
11
'
195 .19-& 19ZZ, J-91_8 .109 I.~8_0 1-81 1982
~ ~'ri~F w9G
.~.
.6
.., 8
*. 9 . 1 .9 ' 1.0
3,~>1-+C: ;, ;
TOTAL
4.7 4.3 y,0 4.1
4,0 3.8 3.6 3,5
>,.
THE' TOTAL WINSTON FAMI LY WI LCCONTINUE TO BE BTRONGLY ~ SUPPORTED;'
.01
BUSINESS IS IN THE DECLINING FULL-FLAVOR CATEGORY.
THE TOTAL IIINSTON LINE WILL LOSE SHARE AS THE BULK OF ITS .
4,.
1'1INSTON.KING WILL DEVELOP A MORE 'COl1PETITIVE PRODUCT AND BRAND
IMAGE OVER THE LONG TERM. .
VIINSTON~ K1N3"ANr D''SUPER~KING'*'~,I.r1l:L~,~ HAVE `INCREASING PRESSURE'
;... ~. FROM LOIN-TAR BRAIIDS POSIT101JED AGAIIJST THE FULL FLAVOR 11ARKET.
I'II NSTON SUPER KI NG I S NOT AS -VULNERABLE AS WI NSTON KI NG BUT
WILL LOSE HEAVILY TO WINSTON 100'S LIGHTS IN THE NEAR FUTURE,
i
11
WINSTON LIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVILY SUPPORTED AND THE
~4 BRAND~~1~~1 L~L DRAW tF~POM WI NSTpM~KI NG~ AN~D FUt~L-~F~R~BRANDS
~{'IINSTON~ LIGHTS HAS A LOW-TAR IMAGE PLUS A"FLAVOR" HERITAGE,)'
MARKETING EFFORTS WILL SHIFT FROM WINSTON 100'S TO WINSTON 100'5
LIGHTS.
x
51
1
1975
1976_
KING & Box .11.y 10.7 9,6 . 9,0` 8.4 7.8
SUPER KING
LIGHTS
LtGHTS 100's
hiENTHOL
TOTAL
3,1.
.7
.3 .3
J91_7_ 1978
.19_L9
2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1
1.7 2.0
2.4
2.7
.2
1,0
15.5 15.1 14,8 .1y,y 14.1 . 13.7
aau .
im
7.2 6.7
2.1 * 2.0
.3;0 3.2
13.5 13,2
l
SALEM FORECAST
..:,THE.. SALEM FRAIJCH I SE: I S POS I TI VELY POS I T I ONE . , D FOR 70f1GitROW'S 11ARKET
(I.E., MILD/SMOOTH IFIAGE),
SALEM KING/Box/100'S ARE VULNERABLE"TO LOW-TARS, BUT- ACTION
WILL BE TAKEU TO BE MORE COMPETITIVE IN THE LOW-TAR AREA.
SALEM K1NG/BOX/100'S WILL LOSE SOME ABILITY TO ATTRACT NEW
SMOKERS.
SALEM'S LIGHT STYLES WILL CON7INUE TO BE HEAVILY SUPPORTED AND
~.*«WI.LL BECOME~, INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT~TO?THE BRAND. . k'i
'"a
!}=~.i: tr,.
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
1981 1982
Kirtc & Box 5.8 5.0 4, 3 3; 8 3.5 -3,1 - 2.8 2.6
100's 2,7 2.6 2;2 2,2 2.1 2.0 2.0 119
~ LIGHT .1 1.0 1,*5 1.8
2.0
2,3
2.5
2.7
LIGHT 100's . ,9 1:1 --13 ; 5 -
l 1, 6 8
8.6 8.8 8.9 y~8.9 8.9 8,9 [y] 98 0
'Lyq :~~
rr-.~-s^F3ar;
f
1
m
NANTAGE I S NOT TH E~, °~lI NS,TON ,.OF ''.TOP10RR0W,"
COMPETITIVE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE
.I3RANDAND ITS P0S I TI,ON :WI LL, BECOFtE ~MORE DI LUTED. ~4' THE'"BRAND'''
r
WI LL BE 't OVER AIJD UNDERCUT. ~/
VANTAGE tidILL CONTINUE 70 RECEIVE HEAVY ADVERTISING SUPPO,RT'.
1975 1976 1 977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
.
*
*
VANTAGE FILTER 168 2.0 0 °
28 2
. 1 2.3 2.*4 2. 5 ,2..5:
VANTAGE MENTHOL .3 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .5 .5
,
. VANTAGE 100'S .6 .7 .8 .9 1:0
TOTAL 2, 1 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3,9 4.2-
..,,M £
GROW ABOUT 52 PER YEAR.
°:r,A [.1EK'.'
INITIAL NET LOSS COULD REACH 30% AND TNEREAFTER THE BRAND WILL
..,. .
_
TNE'R6~{it1LL'6BE`~A' TOr FtA'RK{c"Tlt3G'l`Ctii4PIGE""'FQRY D~rRAL ~IN THE
FIRST QUARTER 1978 TO INCLUDE ADVERTISING, PACKAGIPI
6 AND
PHILIP MORRIS WILL ENTER THE "LOWER THAN MOST" TAR GROUPING
. IN 77/78,
DORAL
....~.. .. . 6 .. .. .. ..
1,0 ,9 ,7 .5 ,5 .6 ,6- .6
MORE 1^l I LL RECE I VE SOL I D SUPPORT FOR A BRAND I TS S I ZE,
,
MORE'S llPJIOUE CHARACTERISTICS WILL i.OiITItJUE TO BE A POSITIVE
AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH OCCASIOt:AL USs:.
MORE WI LL I NCREASE I TS DOMI NANCE OF THE 12Umt9 MARKET.
MORE
191.~ J 4Z~ 191Z 1~Z$ 19Z.~. 1.~_$0_ ~], h9B2
.8 ,9 1,0 1.0 1,1 1.2 1.3. 1,3
THE BRAND HAS LOST ALL THAT IT WILL LOSE DUE TO PRODUCT
THE PRODUCT WILL BE IMPROVED,
THE ULTRA L0W-TAR CATEGORY WILL GROW RAPIDLY AND COMMUNICATION
OF NOW'S UNIQUE LOW-TAR BENEFIT wIIL BE IMPROVED.
Now
1975 1916 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
- ,6 ,5 .6 .7 ,8 .9 1,0
f
B
~~
~(S}:F - ) '°04
k
,.. . ,.~
s.-ti ,. . . .
r E L FORECAST
R ,.4J .. . .. . . `"+ 7'. . . . . . x '~" . . .
REAL WILL BE SUCCESSFULLY INTRODUCED ON JUNE 13, 197-7.
. ,
,.,
.
(THIS ASSUMPTION SUPPORTED BY PRE-FIARKET
TESTINGr)
THE REAL CONCEPT HAS A BROAD BASE OF APPEAL.
z
t+.,4r'.;;a
D1
,
THE BRAND WILL BE HEAVILY SUPPORTED INITIALLY AND BECAUSE
OF ITS PROFIT AND VOLUME POTENTIA'L THE BRAND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HEAVILY SUPPORTED IN FUTURE YEARSr
REAL WILL NOT DO AS WELL AS.PIERIT SIIJCE MERIT WAS FIRSTr
REAL
.6 1.5 1,8 2.0 2.1 ; 2,2
EXISTING BRANDS
REAL
NEW BRANDS
ACTQAL
U/5 '.. 7 [_SL
4.7 4,3
15.5 .15.1
8.6 8.8
1.0 ,9
2.1 2.4
.9
. _~ ___11
3207 33.0
. .~
.
~
32:7 33,0
4 i..p, 4A-.^++~~.R 4'k.At~! w°
1.~C1_ " ~.LL
4.0 4.1 4. 0 3.8
1y.4 14.1 13.7
8.9 b.9 6.9 8.9
.7 .5 .5 .6
2.9 3.1 3.4 . 3.6
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
__.~ ._.._.~
~ _
1
. _
32.8 32.6 32.7. 32.6
.6 .1.5 1.8 2.0
33,4 34.5
3.6 S, 5-
13.5 13.2=.`
8.9 ~ 9.0.
.6 .b.
-3.9 4.
-3
,
3~2.7 `~;; 32. b
:2.1 . 'l.2 ~
6tL8 90fi0S
192.9 197,;:3
. _+4,1 +2.0
33.4 34.5 . 35.2
.200.2 208.9 215.9
+2.1 .+4.4 +2,8
35.8
222.1
Oy`
~,
