Youth and Marketing
External Forecast
Abstract
External forecast produced by RJR. Charts consumer demographics and projections for smoking ages, (including 14-24) values, sex roles and smoker environment. Charts demand for menthols by African Americans, whites, and young adults. Charts competitive market and new brands from Philip Morris and market share by brand. Forecasts taxes, future bans on advertising, and incidence of smoking. Discusses new product, Real, to compete with PM's Merit.
User-Contributed Notes
- 14-24 year olds
- p. 3
Fields
- Notes
Original document code was 1009.
- Company
- R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.
- Major Subject
- Advertising and Marketing
- Cigarette
- Target Market
- Adults
- African American
- Young adult
- African American
- Minor Subject
- Advertising and Marketing -market share
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --adult (25+ years old)
- Advertising and Marketing -target market --young adult (18-24 years old)
- Cigarette -consumption
- Cigarette -market share
- Cigarette -sales
- Youth (<18 years old) -data
- Youth (<18 years old) -smoking incidence
- Advertising and Marketing -research
- Brand
- Camel (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
- Marlboro (PM)
- Merit (PM)
- More
- Salem (RJR)
- Vantage (RJR)
- Doral (RJR)
Document Images
THE.CONSUMER EuVtRONP1ENr
P .,..~.~..~. . , K ,~::,
~E1SOGRAPH I CS
VALUES
THE SAtOKER ` ENVI RONMENT
THE:w EUS,I NESS~fNV I RONFIENT A
THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
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~'f['~t:=7~,,,rt'.tT.L~;~-'r.'~S'?c~Qa
THE CIGARETTE INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT
p. R,JR,. FORECAMr. F~
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TICONSUh1CR 01VI ROtJMENT
F ~ -
tDE4NOGRAPHICS)
~-
.
T;;1`ZE:';~'+I~4
. -.E . F.~.-.~
SAfOKING AGE POPULATtptt',!;LL'GROl9:'ATMA:SLOtrE(I RATE,.
. ~ .
. . i . ' . . .- . . A, i . . . .
ANNUAL GROWTH
.
a
SF10}C1NG AGE POPULATION
1970 `-=1 J76~ , ; l g77=1982,
'
e - -------
.
1982-1987
+ 1.7 + 1.3 + 9
2, THE SMOKING AGE POPULATION WIL!. BECOME AtORE MIDDLE AGED"hfITH,
THE BULK OF
THE GR011TH
25-34 BErwEEN
1975-1982 AND IN THE'
35'49
GROUP FROM 19821987,
-
GROwTH"
14-2y
25-3y
35-49
50+
1975=1982
1982-Z9E7
s
.
tDEMOGRAPII l CS ` .w < CO
THE SOUTH'AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPEPIEtI. '
CE.POPJLATION
0Y.'TH AT A FASTER RAT£. .
THAN , THE, BALANCE '0F THE-: U,~ S;`
r.P~l TN ",,
19 ~8? 41982= 1987
.,~~~...
,.0 y. THE GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED
THE GROWTH OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, MUCH OF THIS GROWTH WILL
OCCUR IN S INGLE PER30N HOUSEHOLDS,
1975 1980 1985
NOUSf ~{QLDS,. (ni LL1otIS)F
84.7
ANNUAL GROWTH + 243 + 1.9 + 1.6
SINGLE HOUSEHOLDS (MILLIONS) c
,.6
18.2
21,0
-1.,014o PIP qll a
5. THE U. S. POPULATION WILL BECOME WEALTHIERs
i~ FArdIL1ES EARriING $15«
r.rr D(WEs~ ( cvrr sTf,w -r
.I9A DOLLARS)
1975 ~ 1980 1985
110% 53%
59Z
EW VALUES l4ILL CONTINUE TO EXPAIJD
.:
-70; OLDER . POPULATION SEGMENTS
A1:7H0UGH TiHE T07PL GROWT
H ItJ NEW VAL
UES WI
L
L
} IS A RESU ;;IIE MINlMAL, :; TH1S
.: x T OF~. TN~ ,, PIEWw ;VA~ UE~. .
-sE I NG'.° REF' .
S~OF ~4:=, .;.
~ LACFD" '~~Q
Y
a`
A
LACK
- OALS
. .. AMONG YOUTH
.
DE-EFIPHASIS OF SYSTEWORDER IN LIFESTYLES CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING TOLERANCE OF ALTERNA7E°LIFESTYLES,
. %t STRONGLY IN TREND -
I'~OVCLT; .A~ID C ;. ;
! " { NANGE
LIVING FOR TODAY
TOLERANCE FOR
CHAOS/DISORDER
26
I$
DESPRF~.fl 74~Al Iru "cn..~..~:.
23
EST
+~4 I t~PHY$ I CAL~ NEA N "~"~'~
~
~. . ~ ~:
INTER
IiAS SLOWED,
---.. .,......,,~
PHYSICAL FITNESS AND
. 1)(.{_L ,P,r ! NG
t<~. 1 N TREN~_
1973 197y 1975 1976
3!1
35
36
36 *
; .-
~~
t
~T1IE~'CONSUNIERFENVIRONMENT- '
<
LUES.";
ONT
LNUED
14
.~~.
1y
INTEREST IN Ai7RACT_IVENESS OFr PIiYSICAL APPEARANCE CONTJN~U,ES,l
;
J 0`
a
5,
;
PHYSICAL SELF-ENHANCEMENT
:
I97~ x wi `1974 1975 y+:v 197611
43 42 44 y6'
.
. 4:YF~ ; "'AA,
TRADITIONAL SEX ROLES CONTINUE TO BLUR AS WOMEN BECOME.MORE
IMPORTANT TO WORK FORCE,
BLURRING OF SEXES
a 4.. ', s.' ta ,
FEMALE CAREERISM
+
~~4NGLY i N TRFRD
42
A
~.-. ~-
.
SMOKERS'. CONCERNS OVER THE ALLEGED HAZARDS OF SMOKING IS
,HIGH AND,EXPECTED TO'FCONTINUE TO`INCREASE.
CONCERNED OVER SMOKING
CLAIMED ENJOYMENT OF SMCKING 1$ EXP!'CTED TO DECLINE AS A
RESULT OF THE:SOCIAL'.ACCEPTABILITY ISSUE,
r
.o,
'ENJOY SMOKING"
56
54
53
THE PERCENT OF FEMALE SMOKERS WILL SHOW SLIGHT INCREASES
THROUGH 1982 AND.THEREAFTER STABILIZE AT 48% OF TOTAL SMOKERS.
19 55~1968wr+~~972~'~:197~"~""198~~`~87
MALE 65 57 55 54 - 52 52
FEMALE.. 35 43 45 46 48 48
TIlE St~10KER ENVI RONriEtJT
`~
;AtCONT1NUEIi)r;i
WOF
EXPRESSED CONCERN~OVER HEALTH WILL PLAY A MORE'IMPORTANT
BLACKS WITH
A~,STROi~u PRQPE.~ + Y~
FOR v«T1ENTNOLS AND' N F~
IGH
ROLE IN THE CIGARETTE,MARKETO
MENTHOL SHARc
"CONCERNED OVER HEALTH"
BLACKS % INDUSTRY VOLUME
z
45
68
9
x
c,26
67
THE YOUNG ADULT'MARKET'IS IN. `TRANSITIr
.ON IN BRAND P.~<REF"RENCE
(AND IN VALUES).SUGGESTING MAJOR SHIFTS WITHIN THE,NEXT 10 YEARS.-
SMOKERS '
18'24 YEARS..
. . ,
; .. .
SN'
zR
A
ES
MARLBORO
WINSTON
KooL
SALEf-1
31.2
.13,9
14,5
10,7
70.3
HE ECOPJOMY WILL'EXPERIENCEy'A`MILD RECESSION IN 19~4
.,,
RECOVER,: AND THEREAFTER SHOW -REAL GROWTH OF 3X. , AtIOi'NER, MILD
RECESSION IS,,LI9ELY BETWEEN J982,~'AND 19878'
SOURCE:`:- R.JP`'..INDUSTRICS"ECONOMIC C~!!TLOOK '
f'
.
. . iy". ~.
THE INDUSTRY IS EXPECTED TO FACE CONTINUED REGULATORY RESTRAINTS:
A). POSSIBILITY OF FEDERAL TAX ON HIGH TAR AND NICOTINE
- PRODUCTS OR AN OUTRIGHT BAN COULD HAPPEN IN 1980'S:
B) INCREASE IN FEDERAL EXCISE TAX-IN I9S0'S,
C)
POSSIBLE BAN ON
ADVERT I S I NG, OR FURTHE,R~ RES7R I CTI ONS~;~t~-~
I NC2EASE I N`S I 2E OF WARN I NG NOT I CE, BAN OF USE OF FIODELS,
3,* CO coULD BECOrfE AN ISSUE WITH THE FTC PUBLISHING CO NUMBERS
.
IN FALL OF 197a,
.
,
-
V
y. RESTRICTIVE ShOKING LEGISLATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
PARTICULARLY AT LOCAL.LEVELS.
THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY AND OTHER GROUPS WILL INCREASE
THEIR PRESSURE ON THE."SJCIAL ACCEPTABILITYff OF CIGARETTE
-
SMOKINGI
(i. A!J `~t;lJ;;C(_ COULD ~'~,?iORSE A It S/lf'E" CIGAttETTE,
Bha!. .~ Y F~n(^"
~q..'sa~ti~AC.'s ~+. ~z- > ~,~-.a~r ~ :a~.x* , , r ~r~^.r
,COMPETI T I IIE,,Et111I f;OfJf1EIITwr
~4 . z f - .<... . . . ~r . . . =.~
~ '~"r '~S ,~s~.,- ;ti-.:. x-. - f ~_ rti^: r, ]l': ~'- 'R {., .r , . , i .y .i , F~~[ i ~"~ :.
~"'>~"~Y. ~ ~~,. e: .'[-.~
92 99 .:..99:,
REYNOLDS AND PHILIP MORRIS COULD HAVEOVER 70% OF THE
1fARI~FT RY 1987.
V;.r:< <.. ,
.~ I1~KEL S~iAQF
1977 '1982 1987
.RJR 33.4 35.8 39.2
.~- P.M. 26,5 29.8 31.9
59.9 65.6 71,1
..
P.M. (ESTABLISHED) . '
P.M,. (NEW)
1. r- THE ;.NUt48ER ,.OF :I TEh1S ON ;-.THE,ItiARKE~ , S13 0ULD, . INCREASE THROUGH .f~
: . . .. . -.:. . :.,.e :. ~ r1 .. , . .. .-... . . . . -- .~ . , . v,, i.,1 . .. .
. 1982`AND'-COULD STABILIZE TIiCREAFTER.
3. PHILIP MORRIS'WILL HAVE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE IN
NEW BRANDS TO SUSTAIN THEIR GROWTH.
1977 1982
26.2 ' 26.3 + .1
.. 3 ' 3'.*5 +315
26', 5 29.8
If. PHILIP MORRIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE A 5 MG. PRODUCT IN
1978 AND A SOLO MENTriCL IN 1979.
f
1970 1977 '. 1982 '1987
MARKET SHARE
r
e
.:
~~' ?t;
;
..
.
+' +
~.
;
,~..~J~ -.-~;i~:~., ..~:~,, ,
~~
:PNHLIP' MORRIS tdEIl"BRANDS
f
- _ . . .. . . - . ~ . . ~
..,~,
WILL BE;MORE;ACTI,VE`.IN, NEW BRANDS
~, ,.:. . , ..
,
.
Pl'I HAS SPINOFF OPPORTUtIITIES (B ~11, VS, HARLBORO)
PM HAS EGUAL I TY I N RESOURCES AND I S WI LL I NG TO COMt1I T
.
RESOURCES.
PRODUCT SUPERIORITY (CONSUMER) ORIENTATION AND HAS
PHILOSOPHY THAT NUMBERS ARE NOT EVERYTHING.
5. PM I S AHEAD I N TAR/N I COTI NE TECHNOLOGY.
MERIT IS THEIR BIG HORSE AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO i2IDE-
IT HARD.
~x . .. ,~,..
ur. , .
PM HAS NO.BRANDS WITH "LOWER THAN P10ST" PERCEPTION AND
IS WEAK IN.THE MENTHOL CATEGORY.
='MERIT SUCCtSS
F EDED f'' FOR'CORP,QRATE `GROIiTH'° '
