Tobacco Documents Online

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I- i- [ I- I- I. l L L l_ L L L L I I PHILIP ~HOR~;S U. S. A. INTER-OFFICE CORRESPOMOENCE Dr. Robert ~. Sel1~an Oate: Myron Johnston Youn~ Smokers -- Prevalence~ Trends; Implications, and Rela=ed Demo~raphlc Trends March 31, [9~[ For over flf=een years certain demographic and social trends have been ~oving In directions favorable ~o industry growth. Now, one by one, :hese poverfu~ social and demographic ~ac:ors are :urn£ng agalns~ us, and b7 1985 all ~i!l be opera=£ng agalns= us. After increasing for over a decade, ~he p~evalence of :eenage smok£ng decllnln~ sharply. A/ter increas!n~ ~or over a decade, the average dally oonsump¢Ion of teenage ~mokers is declining. After InereaslnK 18 percen~ from 1967 ~o 1976, ~he absolute number of 15-19 year-olds will deollne 19 percent during the 1980's, wi~h the period of sharpest decline beglmn~ng in 198~. Beginning in 198~ ~he absolute number of 20-24 year-olds (~he ages dur£n~ which ave:age dally clgaret~e cons~mptlon increases most rapldly) 5. FO: ~he ~irs~ ~Ime is a decade of polling, average dally cigarette consmm~loa as reported on ~he National ~anel has declined. 6. ~n 1985, after decllolng fo~ nearly a decade, ~he numbe: of people in the age grOUp moe~ disposed ~o qui~ smoking (ages &5-54) will begln tO increase d~amatically.

[ [ [ [ It is inevi=abl~ therefore, that Indust:/ sales vill begin to decli:e wi:htn next few years. Thus, Philip Morris USA can sustain it~ past rate of growth only by an acceler~tlon of =he race n~ increase in market share. While th£s news iS not good for the industry, I believe we can use these data and other data I plan =o report on to good advantage in order to minimize the adverse effect on Philip Morris. f { [ attitudes toward smoking, together with related demographics, Subsequent reports will cover the social, economic and psychographlo characteristics of teenage smokers and the demo~raphi¢~ o~ other slgn~ficant age groups. Because the ~aJor data sources have Just become available, and because o~ the Importance of these data to the ¢o~pany, I have elected ~o report the data in a. series of memoranda rather than wait and issue all of the material at once. MEJ:yl Attachments Mr. ~. Thomson Mr. J. Zoler (:~0) //~_.~6"-'-.~ Mr. R. Daniel Mr. T. Goodale (NYO) Dr. C. Levy Mr. L. Meyer L [ ,

f I-, f [ [ [ l l I [ Teenage Smoking prevalence 1968L1974 Teenage Smoking Prevalence 197So19g0 Smoking Prevalance and Educational Asplra~£ons F,,~ce ~i~ere~es £~ S~ki~g ~evale~ne Regional D~fferences in S~oklng Prevalence Future Smoking Expectations Reasons for the Decline in Teenage Smoking Concluslons and Impllca~ions Plans 3 4 8 20 21 22 t [ A~ac~nen~ A Description of Data Sources t

overwhelzlng :mJori~y of smokers first begin to smoke while still £n their MorriS: Of the eleven packings of which the nedlan age of smokers is under age 30, seven are ~hillp Morris packings and the share index is highest in the youngest age group for all Marlboro and Virginia Slims packings and for B&H Lights and Menthol. .,,~ i ' ........ ,~ ~ . f'~'. :: ~.~" .... . ' , . ,:.. ~ :. ' .... : . :. stuck with It as they grew older - this combined with the rapid grow=h in the absolute number of teenagers. Between 1967 and 1976 the number of ~5-19 1968 and 197& the number of ~2-18 year-olds who smoked ten or more clgare~es per day. more than doubled. ~ndustry sales were also aided by the ~act tha~ this The prevalence O~ ~eenage smoking peaked in 1976-77 and is now declining. the number of I~-19 olds also peaked lm 1976 and will _ Furthermore, year 19 percen~ durin~ ~he nex~ decade. v na sm in w The effect of this decline in the pre alence of tee ge ok g ill not become apparen~ fo~ a few years. It will continue to ~e ~asked by ~he fac~ ~ha~ will ~ a continued increase In ~he number o~ smokers i~ ~hei~ 20's who have high p~evalence ~a~es and are reachlns ases a~ which ~he average daily result o~ the small number of births durln~ the Depression.

In a very few years, however, there will he a reversal of these ~rezls (see Chafe I). Ther~ will be a decline in the nuzber of people, and an even greater decline in the number of smokers, in .he age group in which average daily ~-. oonsumptloR normally increases ~ ~he number of 20-2~ year-olin will peak In "' ,. 198~ and then begin an accelerating decline. Begtnning in 1985 there will be an' increase (which too will accelerate) in ~he number of people reaching the ages '- at which people ~yplcally begin to qui~ smoking or cu~ down (ages &5-54). We will no lon~e= be able ~o rely on a rapldly increasing pool o~ ~e~na~ere which ~o replace smokers loe~ ~hrough aor~l a~ri~ion. :. - .'!... The decline in ~he prevalence of ~eenage smoking has been sharper among boys • ~han among girls, and eow more girls ~ham boys smoke cigarettes. The decline in ~eenage smoking .has been particularly pronounced among blacks, which may accoun~ for the decline in Kool's market share. The Nor~heas~ has the highee~ prevalence of teenage smoking and the WeeE b~s ~he lowest. Bet~ee~ 1975 and 1979 ~he proportion of ~eenagers who say they "definitely will no~' be smoking" ~ive years hence has increased dra~i~ally. The ma~or reasons foe ~he decline are she perceived health hazards of smoking and peer pressure no~ Eo smoke. Because of our high share of ~he market among the younges~ smokers, Philip Morris will suffer more than ~he o~her companies from ~he decline in ~he number of ~eemage smokers. For a~ leas~ ~he next decade~ however, Ehe population ~rende will have a much more powerfu~ influence, and in ~hle regard we appear =o be ~he least v~inerable of all the companies, as will be dlscusse~

[ Teenage Smokln~ Prevalence 1963-[974 The best data ~ have on the overall prevalence of teenage smoking for the 1968-74 period comes from studies conducted by Ch£1=on Research Services for the Narlonal Clearinghouse on Smoking and Health: TABLE Percent who are "Current Regular Smokers"* by age, 196g-toP4 Ages Ages Ages 12-~4 %5-16 17-18 1968 1.8 13.3 24.4 1970 4.4 17.0 30.0 1972 i.7 17.0 27.8 1974 4.6 19.2 28.4 *A current regular smoker was defined as someone who smoked one or more cigarettes per week. Among boys, smoking prevalence increased from 1968 to 1970, declined from 1970 to 1972, and ~hen remained essentially constan~ ~hrough 1974. There was a steady and dramatic increase in th~ number of girls who started smoking, as shown i~ Table 2. TABLE 2 Percen= of ~5-18 yaar-olds who were "Current Regular Smokers" 1968 23.6 14.1 18.8 1970 2~.4 iB.~ 2~.5 1972 24.0 20.~ 22.~ 1974 24,6 23,0 23.8

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{ I- | I I 1 I I l l l l_ l~.e scriki~ thln~ is chat, by wha:ever zeasure is used to describe s=okin~ status, the oerzent of hi~h school seniors who s~oke is dec ....... ~. ~i[e the 197S-!97~ and 1979-~9S0 ti=e periods, ~here have been substantial declines si~ce 1977 in all of the o~her measures of smokln~ sis=us. Table & shows :%e various measures of cigarette ~moklng prevalence. Chart 2 shows ~he percent who smoked a~ all in ~he 30 days prior to ~he survey, and ~he percent who smoked one or more, too or more, and 20 or more cigarettes durlnE that 30-day period, Chart 3 shows the percent of high school seniors who reported that the) were current regular smokers and the total percentage of those Clearly, by whatever measure is used to assess smoking prevalence, it peaked in 1976 and 1977 and ~hen began an accelerating decline. TABLE 4 Percen~ of Seniors who Ever Smoked, Ever Smoked Daily, and Quantity Smoked in ~ast 30 Days Class of 1975 Ever Smoked 73.7 Smoked in last 30 days 36.8 Ten or more per day [8.0 ~O or more per day 9.7 Self-definltlon: Current Regular Smoker Class Class Class Class Clas~ of~1976 of 1977 of 1978 of 1979 of 75.45 75.8 75.3 74.05 38.8b 38.5 36.7a 34.4a 30.~ 28,7b 29.0 27.5b ~5.3a 19.1c 19.3 18,5 16.4a 14.3~ 9.9 10.4 9.7c 8.~a 7.~ 22.0 23.5b 23.9 22.8c 20.3a 38.4 40.4b 40.2 39.0c 36.8a 32.9a l L I0,I00 14,600 • 15,500 asIEnlflcantly different from preceding year p<.OO[ b$lgnlficantly different ~rom preceding year p<.O~ 18,650 16,200 16,5OC The decline in the percent of high school seniors who smoke has been most pronounced among males, and began a year earlier among males than females, as shown in Table 5 and Chart 4. In addition, the females now report that they smoke m~re cigarettes per day than do the males.