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D R A F T "UNTITLED" (Film on Smoking and Lung Cancer) Special Proj ects April 20, 1982 TIOK 0027321

1 INTERIOR A "VIDEO CONTROL" ENVIRONMENT. THE CAMERA HOLDS TO ESTABLISH A BANK OF MONITORS WITH A VARIETY OF IMAGES ON THE SCREENS: FACES OF PEOPLE, INTERIORS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH LABORATORIES, CHARTS, A GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS, AND -- FINALLY -- THE TITLE OF THE FILM. CAMERA PANS TO REVEAL RICHARD ANDERSON SEATED, READING PAPERS. HE ACKNOWLEDGES CAMERA, AND SPEAKS TO THE AUDIENCE. DICK (SYNC): Medical science has produced remarkable results: the polio vaccine, penicillin, the infant mortality rate has dropped in many instances. The accomplishments go on and on. The list is impressive because there are a great many intelligent, hard-working professionals engaged fulltime in solving life's medical mysteries. CU DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. But the mysteries still exist. There are the obvious ones:. sudden infant death syndrome, Parkinson's disease, Downes Syndrome, the whole area of birth defects, the brain. TIOK 0027322

2 DICK (SYNC): There are the not-so-obvious mysteries: Reyes Syndrome, a long list of diseases that are not well known -- but nevertheless bring great suffering to many people. CU DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. Tragedies... all of them. Perhaps the biggest tragedy of all is when an important medical question has not been answered, but most everyone thinks it has. That's a tragedy of a different sort. DICK WALKS FROM BEHIND CONSOLE AND RESTS ON EDGE OF DESK. Let's take a look at something everyone believes to be true...the matter of cigarette smoking and lung cancer. CAMERA MOVES PAST DICK TO MONITOR WITH GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS. TIOK 0027323

3 DICK (VO): We asked 1,500 adult Americans -- selected at random -- what they thought. We travelled to cities throughout the United States and asked this question: CU MONITOR WITH TEXT OF QUESTION "DOES CIGARETTE SMOKING CAUSE CANCER?" DICK (VO): Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? CUT TO MONITORS WITH FACES OF INDIVIDUALS. SCREEN FILLS WITH ONE OF THOSE FACES. WOMAN (SYNC): No doubt in my mind. Cigarettes cause lung cancer. ANOTHER INTERVIEW. MAN (SYNC): Learned that a dozen years ago in school. The answer is "yes." TIOK 0027324

4 ANOTHER INTERVIEW. MAN (SYNC): Are you kidding me? Everyone knows that. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): Most people we talked to believe smoking causes lung cancer. But medical science isn't so sure. A good many scientists do feel that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer. But a number of scientists feel the jury is still out. CAMERA MOVES PAST DICK TO MONITOR WITH STERLING IN CU. DICK (VO): Dr. Theodore Sterling of Canada's prestigious Simon-Fraser University... CU DR. STERLING. TIOK 0027325

5 DR. STERLING (SYNC): Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? Well, I don't think anyone knows ... there are a lot of statistics which suggest that it does But -- speaking as a scientist -- there are just too many questions without answers. DR. STERLING, ANOTHER ANGLE. I've taken a hard look at some of those questions. For instance, I've found that among smokers who got lung cancer, a good many of them were also exposed repeatedly to a variety of dangerous fumes and dust. Was it the cigarette smoking or the dust and the fumes? Was it the combination? We don't know. CU, DICK. DICK (SYNC): We don't know. How can that be? T101K 0027326

6 DICK (SYNC): Haven't there been years of medical research -- using animals and all sorts of research techniques? MONITOR SHOWING LABORATORY ANIMALS. DICK (VO): Laboratory animals? Well, it wasn't too long ago that a well-respected medical researcher, Dr. Alvan Feinstein, wrote. MONITOR SHOWING QUOTATION FROM DR. FEINSTEIN'S ARTICLE. DICK (VO): No well designed and well conducted experiments have shown that cigarette smoke causes lung cancer in animals. MS DICK, RESTING ON EDGE OF DESK. T1OK 0027327

7 DICK (SYNC): If medical research hasn't shown smoking causes lung cancer in animals, why is everyone so,sure? CAMERA FOLLOWS DICK AS HE STANDS UP AND WALKS TO REVEAL MONITORS. DICK (SYNC): The answer is statistics. Numbers. Are they conclusive? There's no doubt in my mind that statistics...and statistical methods...are a clever tool. CAMERA ON MONITOR WITH GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS. DICK (VO): Let's take a look at one kind of statistics: Opinion research. We asked our panel of 1,500 adult Americans: Are the statistics about cigarette smoking and lung cancer conclusive? Do they leave any doubt in your mind? T10K 0027328

8 MONITOR SHOWS RAPIDLY TOTALING NUMBER SHOWING THAT MOST RESPONDENTS ARE SATISFIED WITH THE STATISTICAL EVIDENCE. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): What do they think in Boston...in San Francisco... Atlanta...around the U.S.? CAMERA MOVES TO MONITORS WITH INDIVIDUAL FACESi SCREEN FILLS WITH FACE OF ONE MAN STANDING IN FRONT OF A SUPER MARKET. MAN (SYNC): Statistics? Sure, when it comes to cigarettes, that's all the evidence I need. A WOMAN'S FACE FILLS THE SCREEN, ANOTHER LOCATION. WOMAN (SYNC): Statistics? Well, I've heard liars figure and figures lie. But, I'm not so sure about this one. There's an awful lot of statistics which show smoking causes lung cancer. T1OK 0027329

- 9 - ANOTHER WOMAN, ANOTHER LOCATION. WOMAN (SYNC): No doubt in my mind. Numbers tell it all. CAMERA RETURNS TO DICK IN FRONT OF CONSOLE. TO HIS LEFT IS A BOWL OF APPLES. DICK TOSSES APPLE IN THE AIR, CATCHES IT. DICK (SYNC): Numbers tell it all? Well, using the same statistical methods used by most medical researchers, I can show you a'close relationship between the consumption of apples in Brooklyn, N.Y. and the birth rate in Chicago. DICK PUTS APPLE BACK IN BOWL. DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. DICK (SYNC): No, numbers don't tell it all. But they can help sort through a lot of information: Numbers can help scientists decide what to study. But, statistics just plain don't prove anything. TIOK 0027330

DICK (SYNC): At best, they're a big help; at worst, terribly misleading. CAMERA MOVES TO MONITOR WITH U.S. MAP SHOWING LOCATION OF GREATEST INCIDENCE OF LUNG CANCER. DICK (VO): For instance, you take a look at some general statistics about smoking and lung cancer and you would get the idek that wherever smokers live, the lung cancer rate is high. Makes sense. But, it isn't so. STATISTICAL READOUTS BY GEORGRAPHIC AREA. DICK (VO): Look at this. From the National Cancer Institute... New Jersey. The petroleum regions...the heavy manufacturing areas...this is where lung cancer is heaviest. Are these the areas where smokers are most likely to live? No, smokers live all over the United States. T1OK 0027331

- 11 - CUT TO INTERNATIONAL GRAPHICS ON MONITOR. DICK (VO): Internationally there are a lot of questions; questions not answered but raised by statistics. MONITOR SHOWS CLOSEUP OF U.S. AND CANADA. STATISTICS SUPER OVER MAP OUTLINES. DICK (VO): The U.S. and Canada have the highest per capita cigarette consumption in the world, but they rank eigth and 15th respectively in lung cancer deaths of males. MONITOR CHANGES TO EUROPE OUTLINE. DICK (VO): Conversely, the United Kingdom, Finland and the Netherlands have lower per capita consumption than the U.S. and Canada, but they have far higher lung cancer death rates. TIOK 0027332

- 12 - SUPER STATISTICS OVER MAP OUTLINES. DICK (VO): Number? Let's take an even closer look. After all, the evidence about smoking and lung cancer depends on numbers. Where do the numbers come from? CAMERA MOVES TO A MONITOR WITH THE FACE OF A PHYSICIAN, A MEDICAL EXAMINER. MEDICAL EXAMINER: We get most of our lung cancer statistics from death certificates...you know, the form that is filled out in the hospital when someone dies. The problem is they're not terribly accurate. A lot of it is based on guesswork. You can't really know the cause of death without an autopsy, and autopsies are performed in relatively few cases -- maybe one in five. DICK, CU. TIOK 0027333

DICK (SYNC): Here's another interesting fact we uncovered on the subject of autopsies and statistics. Can doctors look at a lung and know if the person was a smoker? We put this question to our panel of 1,500 American adults. CAMERA MOVES TO MONITOR SHOWING TEXT OF QUESTION AND BANK OF NUMBERS. NUMBERS TOTAL RAPIDLY SHOWING A LARGE PERCENTAGE WHO BELIEVE DOCTORS CAN LOOK AT A LUNG AND DETERMINE WHETHER THE PERSON SMOKED. DICK (VO): Let's talk to some folks directly and get their answers. CAMERA MOVES TO THE MONITORS WITH THE INDIVIDUAL FACES. A MAN APPEARS. MAN (SYNC): Sure. I understand a smoker's lung gets all black over time. WOMAN IS ON THE NEXT MONITOR. T1OK 0027334

WOMAN (SYNC): That's probably the tar and nicotine you're talking about. Sure, I've seen pictures... I guess. ANOTHER WOMAN. WOMAN (SYNC): Smoker's lungs are definitely blacker... makes sense. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): Well, maybe it makes sense because it's been said so often. But that doesn't make it true. Let's look at the Congressional Record, testimony from a pathologist who has looked at thousands of lungs. . . CAMERA MOVES TO MONITOR WHERE THESE WORDS ARE DISPLAYED. TIOK 0027335

PATHOLOGIST (VO): It is not possible, grossly or microscopically, or in any other way known to me, to distinguish between the lung of a smoker or a nonsmoker. DICK (VO): At the same hearing, another expert said: NEW TEXT DISPLAYED ON MONITOR. EXPERT (VO): I would estimate that of a thousand pathologists in this country 998 would say, 'I could not tell' and two would say 'I could tell' and that those two who could tell either had some divine intuition or were not telling the truth. DICK, WALKING BEHIND CONSOLE. DICK (SYNC): Pretty strong words. TIOK p02733b ~

DICK SITS DOWN. MONITORS IN BKG. DICK (SYNC): Well what have we found so far? We started by agreeing that most people believe cigarette smoking causes cancer...but we found that some scientists aren't so sure... CUT TO MONITOR AND REPRISE FACES OF INTERVIEWEES. THEN CUT TO MONITOR WITH EXPERIMENTAL ANIMAL FOOTAGE. DICK (V0): We found that most people believe that extensive laboratory experiments involving animals is the basis of knowing that smoking causes lung cancer. But we found that just wasn't so either. MS. DICK NEW ANGLE. DICK (SYNC): We found that most people are satisfied that TiOK 0027337

DICK (SYNC): statistics tell the whole story, but we found out that statistics do a better job of raising questions than answering them. DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. DICK (SYNC): And we found that even the statistics that are being used...well, maybe they're not all that accurate. DICK GETS UP FROM BEHIND THE CONSOLE, WALKS OVER TO A MEDICAL MODEL OF A SET OF LUNGS. DICK (SYNC): Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? You may be expecting me to say 'no.' But the answer is. I don't know...no one does. Not the scientists, nor the physicians; not the American Cancer Society nor the American Lung Association. And the people who make cigarettes, they don't know either. TIOK 0027338

DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. DICK (SYNC): Does that surprise you? Certainly, we've all read that the cigarette industry denies that smoking causes lung cancer. CAMERA MOVES TO MONITORS WITH INDIVIDUAL FACES. A MAN'S FACE FILLS THE SCREEN. MAN (SYNC): The cigarette companies? I've heard they say that smoking definitely doesn't cause lung cancer, or anything else for that matter. A WOMAN APPEARS. WOMAN (SYNC): No. The cigarette companies believe their products do not cause lung cancer. What do you expect them to say? DICK, CU. TIOK 0027339

DICK (SYNC): Well, let's hear what the cigarette companies do say. Let's go to Washington and hear from the chairman of The Tobacco Institute, the organization which represents tobacco companies. Horace Kornegay. CAMERA MOVES TO MONITOR WITH KORNEGAY. KORNEGAY (SYNC): We don't know, nobody does. But, as an industry, we've spent more than any non-governmental agency trying to f ind out, more than the American Cancer Society and Lung Association combined. We have one position and that's all: there is a clear need for answers and carefully conducted medi=al research is the only way we're going to get answers. KORNEGAY, DIFFERENT ANGLE. KORNEGAY (SYNC): We do know that a lot of folks feel that all T1OK 0027340

KORNEGAY (SYNC): of the answers are known, that cigarette smoking does cause cancer. We know that a lot of people consider it a closed subject. But that's all the more reason for us to fund serious research. It's the right thing, the constructive thing to do. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): Cigarette smoking and lung cancer? Is it a closed book? No. It is one of many medical mysteries yet to be solved. CU DICK. Thanks for joining us. This is Dick Anderson. CAMERA ZOOMS BACK TO LS WITH DICK AT CONSOLE. CLOSING CREDITS SUPERED OVER LS SET IN DIM LIGHT. T1OK 0027341