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D R A F T "UNTITLED" (Film on Smoking and Lung Cancer) Special Proj ects April 20, 1982 TIOK 0027321

1 INTERIOR A "VIDEO CONTROL" ENVIRONMENT. THE CAMERA HOLDS TO ESTABLISH A BANK OF MONITORS WITH A VARIETY OF IMAGES ON THE SCREENS: FACES OF PEOPLE, INTERIORS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH LABORATORIES, CHARTS, A GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS, AND -- FINALLY -- THE TITLE OF THE FILM. CAMERA PANS TO REVEAL RICHARD ANDERSON SEATED, READING PAPERS. HE ACKNOWLEDGES CAMERA, AND SPEAKS TO THE AUDIENCE. DICK (SYNC): Medical science has produced remarkable results: the polio vaccine, penicillin, the infant mortality rate has dropped in many instances. The accomplishments go on and on. The list is impressive because there are a great many intelligent, hard-working professionals engaged fulltime in solving life's medical mysteries. CU DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. But the mysteries still exist. There are the obvious ones:. sudden infant death syndrome, Parkinson's disease, Downes Syndrome, the whole area of birth defects, the brain. TIOK 0027322

2 DICK (SYNC): There are the not-so-obvious mysteries: Reyes Syndrome, a long list of diseases that are not well known -- but nevertheless bring great suffering to many people. CU DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. Tragedies... all of them. Perhaps the biggest tragedy of all is when an important medical question has not been answered, but most everyone thinks it has. That's a tragedy of a different sort. DICK WALKS FROM BEHIND CONSOLE AND RESTS ON EDGE OF DESK. Let's take a look at something everyone believes to be true...the matter of cigarette smoking and lung cancer. CAMERA MOVES PAST DICK TO MONITOR WITH GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS. TIOK 0027323

3 DICK (VO): We asked 1,500 adult Americans -- selected at random -- what they thought. We travelled to cities throughout the United States and asked this question: CU MONITOR WITH TEXT OF QUESTION "DOES CIGARETTE SMOKING CAUSE CANCER?" DICK (VO): Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? CUT TO MONITORS WITH FACES OF INDIVIDUALS. SCREEN FILLS WITH ONE OF THOSE FACES. WOMAN (SYNC): No doubt in my mind. Cigarettes cause lung cancer. ANOTHER INTERVIEW. MAN (SYNC): Learned that a dozen years ago in school. The answer is "yes." TIOK 0027324

4 ANOTHER INTERVIEW. MAN (SYNC): Are you kidding me? Everyone knows that. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): Most people we talked to believe smoking causes lung cancer. But medical science isn't so sure. A good many scientists do feel that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer. But a number of scientists feel the jury is still out. CAMERA MOVES PAST DICK TO MONITOR WITH STERLING IN CU. DICK (VO): Dr. Theodore Sterling of Canada's prestigious Simon-Fraser University... CU DR. STERLING. TIOK 0027325

5 DR. STERLING (SYNC): Does cigarette smoking cause lung cancer? Well, I don't think anyone knows ... there are a lot of statistics which suggest that it does But -- speaking as a scientist -- there are just too many questions without answers. DR. STERLING, ANOTHER ANGLE. I've taken a hard look at some of those questions. For instance, I've found that among smokers who got lung cancer, a good many of them were also exposed repeatedly to a variety of dangerous fumes and dust. Was it the cigarette smoking or the dust and the fumes? Was it the combination? We don't know. CU, DICK. DICK (SYNC): We don't know. How can that be? T101K 0027326

6 DICK (SYNC): Haven't there been years of medical research -- using animals and all sorts of research techniques? MONITOR SHOWING LABORATORY ANIMALS. DICK (VO): Laboratory animals? Well, it wasn't too long ago that a well-respected medical researcher, Dr. Alvan Feinstein, wrote. MONITOR SHOWING QUOTATION FROM DR. FEINSTEIN'S ARTICLE. DICK (VO): No well designed and well conducted experiments have shown that cigarette smoke causes lung cancer in animals. MS DICK, RESTING ON EDGE OF DESK. T1OK 0027327

7 DICK (SYNC): If medical research hasn't shown smoking causes lung cancer in animals, why is everyone so,sure? CAMERA FOLLOWS DICK AS HE STANDS UP AND WALKS TO REVEAL MONITORS. DICK (SYNC): The answer is statistics. Numbers. Are they conclusive? There's no doubt in my mind that statistics...and statistical methods...are a clever tool. CAMERA ON MONITOR WITH GLOWING BANK OF NUMBERS. DICK (VO): Let's take a look at one kind of statistics: Opinion research. We asked our panel of 1,500 adult Americans: Are the statistics about cigarette smoking and lung cancer conclusive? Do they leave any doubt in your mind? T10K 0027328

8 MONITOR SHOWS RAPIDLY TOTALING NUMBER SHOWING THAT MOST RESPONDENTS ARE SATISFIED WITH THE STATISTICAL EVIDENCE. DICK, CU. DICK (SYNC): What do they think in Boston...in San Francisco... Atlanta...around the U.S.? CAMERA MOVES TO MONITORS WITH INDIVIDUAL FACESi SCREEN FILLS WITH FACE OF ONE MAN STANDING IN FRONT OF A SUPER MARKET. MAN (SYNC): Statistics? Sure, when it comes to cigarettes, that's all the evidence I need. A WOMAN'S FACE FILLS THE SCREEN, ANOTHER LOCATION. WOMAN (SYNC): Statistics? Well, I've heard liars figure and figures lie. But, I'm not so sure about this one. There's an awful lot of statistics which show smoking causes lung cancer. T1OK 0027329

- 9 - ANOTHER WOMAN, ANOTHER LOCATION. WOMAN (SYNC): No doubt in my mind. Numbers tell it all. CAMERA RETURNS TO DICK IN FRONT OF CONSOLE. TO HIS LEFT IS A BOWL OF APPLES. DICK TOSSES APPLE IN THE AIR, CATCHES IT. DICK (SYNC): Numbers tell it all? Well, using the same statistical methods used by most medical researchers, I can show you a'close relationship between the consumption of apples in Brooklyn, N.Y. and the birth rate in Chicago. DICK PUTS APPLE BACK IN BOWL. DICK, ANOTHER ANGLE. DICK (SYNC): No, numbers don't tell it all. But they can help sort through a lot of information: Numbers can help scientists decide what to study. But, statistics just plain don't prove anything. TIOK 0027330