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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

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THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY'S POSITION
ON PROPOSED NEW ROTATING HEALTH WARNINGS
ON TOBACCO PRODOCTS AND ADVERTISING
TOBACCO INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA
7 June 1985
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................
(i)
INTRODUCTION ............................................
1
COMMENTS ON WORDING OF WARNINGS .........................
1
COMMERCIAL CONSEQUENCES .................................
7
C
IMPLICATIONS FOR ADVERTISING ...........................
12
CREDIBILITY OF GOVERNMENTS TAKING SUCH ACTION ..........
15
CONCLUSION .............................................
17
REFERENCES .............................................
19
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
(i)
The tobacco industry makes the strongest possible
objection to the proposed new rotating health warnings on
tobacco products and advertising, on the following
grounds:
Australian Health Ministers have presented the
industry with no justification for the proposed
change.
The proposed warnings go well beyond the existing
state of medical and scientific knowledge and far
exceed warnings used anywhere else in the world.
Those proposing the warnings have refused to take
responsibility for them by not accepting
attribution. In no democratic country in the world
has a warning relating to smoking, that makes a
specific charge, been required by law without those
making the statement or charge accepting
responsibility for it.
The warnings, if allowed to stand unqualified and
without attribution, would by government edict and
not by the due process of science find the cause of
cancer and heart disease and would not contribute to
the advancement of knowledge.
The requirement that 20 percent of the area of the
front and back panels of tobacco packs be taken up
with mandatory health warnings amounts to the
commandeering of the tobacco companies' most valuable
commercial property - their brand designs - with the
following implications:
It will destroy or degrade pack designs, brand
identities and brand trademarks.
It will cause serious commercial disruption of
the competitive market for tobacco products in an
arbitrary and random way.
This random transfer of market share will affect
the viability of some competing companies much
more severely than others, with a resulting
significant impact on employment.
It will remove from Australian tobacco
manufacturers and established importers their
current protection provided by the established
strength of their brands with Australian
consumers, thereby exporting jobs, the purchase
of raw materials and investment overseas to the
detriment of the domestic tobacco industry.
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

(ii)
It will make potential investors think twice about
the security of their investment in Australia.
The requirement that 20 percent of tobacco
advertising space be devoted to health warnings
amounts to a de facto advertising ban and will have
economically detrimental effects on the media and
advertising industries and make sponsorship of
sporting and cultural events by tobacco companies
untenable.
The likely effects of a de facto ban on advertising
would be :
Withdrawal of the estimated $15 million annual
contribution by tobacco companies to sports
sponsorship.
Denial of advertising revenue of about
$40 million to Australian newspapers, magazines,
periodicals, cinemas and outdoor contractors.
Removal of up to $20 million currently spent on
advertising production and on sales and
merchandising materials.
The loss of an estimated 40 percent of the
revenue of the outdoor advertising industry which
employs about 2,700 people. Many of these jobs
would have to go.
Withdrawal of an estimated 25 percent of cinema
advertising revenue, placing marginal suburban
and drive-in cinemas at greater risk.
Advertisers should not have to:
make statements which negate their advertising
message;
make statements with which they fundamentally
disagree and which cannot be supported by
scientific research;
libel their product and at the same time bear the
cost of displaying that libel.
Such action is hypocritical when it is considered
that at the same time as requiring such warnings
governments will continue to collect $1.2 billion in
Federal and State taxes.
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

-i-
INTRODUCTION
On May 16 1985 the Australian Health Ministers' Conference
decided on a new system of health warnings for cigarettes
and other tobacco products and advertising of these
products, to commence on July 1 1986.1
The proposed new warnings are:
.i.
2.
3.
4.
"Smoking causes lung cancer and heart disease".
"Smoking damages your lungs".
"Smoking is addictive".
"Smoking kills"
They propose that these warnings be used in rotation and
take up 20 percent of the major faces of cigarette packs
and 20 percent of advertisement space.
The tobacco industry makes the strongest possible
objections - not only to the proposed warnings but also to
the proposed methods of displaying them.
COMMENTS ON WORDING OF WARNINGS
The tobacco industry strongly objects to the proposals for
the following reasons:
Warninu i: "Smoking causes luna cancer and
heart disease"
Warning 2: "Smoking damaaes your lunas"
These warnings make statements which go beyond the
epidemiological evidence. The actual causes of the
diseases referred to are still unknown, despite the
worldwide medical and experimental research
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

-2-
programmes conducted for over 30 years to find their
causes. To assume that smoking causes these diseases
is to turn hypothesis into fact, thereby also
ignoring or discounting the other factors that
epidemiological studies have shown to be associated
with the same diseases.
<
The assumption that smoking causes these diseases
also ignores or discounts the lack of evidence as to
how smoke or smoking is supposed to cause the
physiological changes in the onset of these diseases,
let alone how this is done to the exclusion of the
other factors shown to be associated with them.
It is a basic rule of science that a statistical
correlation, no matter how strong or consistent, does
not constitute proof of causal relationship in an
association.
Also ignored by those who propose these new warnings
is the fact that the basic epidemiological studies,
undertaken in the United States and the United
Kingdom by Doll and Hill2, Hammond and Horn3, Dorn et
al4, Kahn et al5 and other studies and upon which the
causal hypothesis is based, have been criticised by
eminent statisticians such as Sir Ronald Fisher6,
Professor Theodor Sterling7, Professor Joseph
Berkson8 Professor Emeritus Eleanor MacDonald9 and
Professor Philip ButchI0 to name a few. Their
criticisms, as published in the scientific
literature, are that:
the populations concerned were not randomly
selected;
the populations studied were not representative
of their national population, let alone those of
other countries;
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

-3-
the participants were 'self-selected' as either
smokers, ex-smokers or non-smokers and it has
been shown that there are different personality
traits between these types which can bias a
statistical analysis as can 'self-selection';
and, in some studies, the interviewers were not
experienced.
More recent epidemiological studies have shown that
the correlation between smoking and the causation of
lung cancer, heart disease and emphysema diminishes
er becomes insignificant when other factors,
including lifestyle, workplace and residential
pollution, hereditary and genetic factors, were
measured.II
Apart from these epidemiological findings it is
accepted by scientists that one of the steps towards
determining whether or not a statistical correlation
shows a cause and effect is by experiments with
animals. Over the last 20 years there has not been
one experiment with animals that was scientifically
acceptable, or that produced the same results when
repeated, that has shown smoking to cause either lung
cancer, heart disease or emphysema. Experiments,
using the same animal models, have produced lung
cancer or heart disease or emphysema with other
chemicals or product~ but have not produced these
diseases with whole cigarette smoke. In some
experiments the smoking animals contracted less
disease and lived longer than the non-smoking
animals.12
In the face oE all this evidence and the lack oE any
experimental or medical evidenc_~ to show the
mechanisms of ~he onset of these diseases, to sinule
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

-4-
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.
out cigarette smoking as the only known cause is
wrong. Therefore the warnings proposed cannot be
substantiated.
Warnina 3: "Smokinq is addictive"
This warning simply does not reflect the current
scientific literature. There are those who support
the addiction theory, but there are also those of
equal professional standing who say that smoking is
only a learned habit. When a similar warning, albeit
attributed to the US Surgeon General, was proposed
last year in the U.S. it was withdrawn.
In the USA alone it is said that 35 million people
have quit smoking over the last 20 years, almost all
without any outside assistance. Claims that smoking
is "as addictive as heroin" are highly mischievous
and based on emotionalism. The UK Office of
Population, Censuses and Surveys has characterised
smoking as a learned dependence.13
The U.S. Surgeon General in his 1982 report
recognised that 95 percent of Americans quit smoking
without the aid of an organised smoking cessation
14
programme.
This warning cannot be substantiated.
Warnina 4: "Smokinq kills"
This statement is absolute and says everyone who
smokes will die as a result of their smoking. This
is patently untrue. Statistics published by the
Commonwealth Department of Health show quite clearly
that the vast majority of smokers do not die of the
15
diseases which are said to be related to smoking.
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999

-5-
Again, for all the reasons given before, this
statement not only takes an assumption and makes it a
fact but does so in a totally emotional manner that,
at the least, can only be designed to scare and
frighten and turn one group of the community against
another, one member of a family against another.
There is even the inference that the health of the
non-smoker is affected by so-called passive and
involuntary smoking. This, however, is also
insupportable as has been demonstrated in the past
two years with three international reviews of the
scientific data on "passive smoking".16 For example,
a meeting of some of the world's top scientists in
this field in Vienna in 1984 concluded: "Should
lawmakers wish to take legislative measures with
regard to passive smoking they will for the present
not be able to base their efforts on a demonstrated
health hazard from passive smoking".17
No doubt in defence of the claim "Smoking Kills" it
will be argued that smoking is the 'leading cause of
premature death in this country' as is often alleged
by health authorities. If so, why is it that the
average age of death from the diseases allegedly
associated with smoking is significantly higher than
the average for all other causes even after taking
account of perinatal death and accidental death, as
demonstrated by the graphs attached, and as stated by
the government in the Senate on 6 March 1984?18
Similarly, in this regard, why is it that smokers and
non-smokers alike contract these diseases in their
older age?
This warning is alarmist and emotive and simply not
true.
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BATCo document for PFSFC 1 March 1999
