Tobacco Documents Online

POSITIOI~I PAPER o 1, ~E I'~Y ~[SAiLOCAT~ OUR HARKET]HG RESOUR~ES~ UNCERTA|NTY OVER REI~ATIVE EFFECTIVERESS OF VARIOUS LEVELS OF N)VERTIS[NG AND PROROTION EXPENDITURES, FUNDS ARD HANPONER 3. -I~;= .[L, .OT ~E ~,'~= ~:0 ~XI.~ZE OUR ~RKET.=O EeFeCTIVENESS. ROUT.iNE INVOLVERENT IN Y~RKETIHG DECISION r~KING ON ADVERTISING AND PROHOTION SPENDING, .

.K_~.Y ]~.SIIRS OF R. J, RK~IOI,U.~ TOSACC.O, COMI'ANY Ex~ernall~ O_~lented 1. Conn,o,acr llcalth Concdrns - lnc~sasod health concerns abou~ clgaro~¢e smok£n2 .~rom '~oCh smokers and non-smokers. 2. Social Acce~c~blltc' .~he cigarette smoker are bn£n2 damned by the government, l~o" SCron~,er Enforcement of ,Lays Prohlb£"~tnV, Sales of ~o Teenn~,ors -13. Recession in 1973-1979 and ~n 1983-1985 media and crusqdlng n~n-smokora. 3. carbon-)lono'xido - ~ld'espread.consumer publicity about harmful 'e~fec~s o~ .carbon monoxide an~ ocher ~ases in c£8arecces. Z=prove~ent £n Health Technology ~£th Implications for the. Tobacco Induscr~ 5. Technical Breakcbroush to ~id Person to "~u£t" More 6, KndorsemenC of **S~fe*' C£garetCe - A zo~o **~8~" ciKarecte very lay nicotine nod semen or a syn~hecLc cLsare~8 etc.) is endorsed by the U. S. CovernmenC or medical ~:o~8 as bei~ a "sage" or "r~sk ~ree" pro~ucC, Industry Trend Toward Lov-'Tar". Ci~n~t~ee - CL~are~es havin8 14 a~s. "~a=~' and lees become ~he 1a=Ses~ volume category. the industry. 8. Covernmen~ Ban on,Hi~h-"Ta~" Ci~ar~e~ - Gradua~e~ ~1~a~e~e Tax (3ased "* on T ; N Levels) -~'Threac a ne~ Federal exc~se tax based on "car" and nicotine levels. ~rLce E~asClclty of Ct~arettes "'~. " C?~eLit~on from Forc~n Ha~k~cers ~4. Slovdo~n ~n the Growth Rate of Smoking. Ag~ Popul.atlnn

• 17. )~) nckn v|ll Bun|.ena Females the Smok|n~ i'opuJnLIon Adult Smokers Under 25 ~111 Shova Haler Shift i~ Brand Yreference Menthol nnd Rxtrn Lon~ but This Grovth ~Jll bo Conccn~r=ced ~n Ili-fi's Become a Here ImportonC S~,.~.ment oE thn Ci~,n~ette CentJoue to Become n Here Zmpert.:snc Portion of 21. RJR nnd Philip Horris v£11 have Almost 70Z of the Domestic Ctsarctce Harkcc b~ 1985, ~,i "'22." ~ev Brsnds rill Continue to be Introduced at an TncrenstnS • " ..Rata ." .. . "" Lifest~les~and : .23. Values viii Continue to Chan~e v~th the' Con~inued Brunkdo~n Of Trad£t£onal~sm and Growth ¥ocusn~ on Self-Real£zation • 24. Resurgence of Conspicuous Consumption an~ a ConC~nuinS Trend to Time and Convenience in Produces and Services ~nrkeClnF Restraints - Zncreasins threat o~ greacu~ Kovern~ental ~po~ed cescricttons, on cigarette ndverC~atng, promo~ion; and:, Znbeling . Advertisin8 Space is Gro~in| Zncrensin81v 'LtmiLed vs. Demand ~hereby BuducinS lmpact per Exposure .. Media Costs rill" Increase Here Rsptdl~ than the Genernl. ~nflntion RaCe 28. Crovth in Htsh Volune ~'ecurtcy Type C~arecte Herchandtstn~ • =~ 29, ProllferaClon of Case ~tzus to "fleet Inventor~ ~c~u£remenC~ ,Sophisticated ~ctatl/~olessle Inventory nod Snl~s Equipment land Information 3i,"'Llg~ett Ha~ Cease All Nerchandlsln~ and Pro~oc~unnl Acclvlcies .32. Decline Jn Vending Sales per Hnchlne and Increased Co~¢ of. Hew Equlpmcnt with Here Columns O'utlecs vl~h Tncreused Central Location . eJq (Conti1~t*e(] on nnxt paQO) -~

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the health concerns {e. g., lower 'tar,, reduced gas).with an attendant decline .in demand for cigarettes which do not do so. • --" (e-+. g., .h~. gher 'tar', full or middle flavor) opportunity. ~pt~on as a res~ of fewer new ~mokers and/or more qui~ters - Zt ~aopen? • " "" ~ ~'w con at~ ace a -pace int ~e 1980's...._. ~ cons~dr studiesl current and forecasted ci e~te catego~ +~ .... .. ~fo~nce; gov~r~ent and media press release~22trends in "~ " . ~dustry new brnnd direction, ~dvertising, promotion; anti- . .... ~k~ng propaganda distributed via schools, h~alth organizations ++ .." and public interes~ groups.., con~i~ upward trend in health

~'..~mbllc smoklng~ ~lo~Id Health-Conference report stating their • primary aim is to denigrate cigarette smoking and ~he smoker~ .'.Tobacco Institute roleases; government and media press releases; ~tl-smoking propeganda distributed via schools and oubli= • "interest groups.., confi.-m contl~uod trend towardSreStrictive .l~glslatio~ and denigration of c~garette smo~er~ . .'. .7

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~NTI-SMOKYtlC~ TECIII.]0LOG.Y" ~rcnd/Issuo Event ..There could bee ~echnolo~Icnl breakthrough, elthcr a drug or cli~ical~:prmcedure, that willaid people in' quitting smoking, more easily. What Will ~appen? . .-. .There currently aze~many over-the-co~nter drugs, "mechanical devices, etCo which a~e pro~ted as being effoctive in reducing or stopping ~noking. This trend ~ - ~ .:..~:,.~~ will continue and; :on Judgment, it is felt many • : ~ .~.~ • klnufaoturers are devoting research and development efforts against such products. ,k~nat Will Be Its Impa~t/Impllcat~on? "- . . While data are. not available on the percentage of'the smoking population who would llke to reduce or quit, it is "bel.leved, on ~ud~ment, to be relatlvely large. While • • many persons quit without difficulty, there are others- . who do not. A technologic~l breakthrough, heavily a.dvertlsed and promoted, would have a major negative • - "~mpact on cons .umptlon. . .: . ~. - . 4o . When Will It Happen? . .. .. As it is assumed companies are working on such a product, ~t could happen at any time. $. sources : " " ,/• MedJ.a pres~ releases, adv~rtJ.s:l.ng for anti-sm.o~ing pr6duCt:S, cl~nics, etc. .. . . : .. ..