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Exhibit 1 1 * 471 AFFIDAVIT OF CARL SELTZER, Ph.D. 1. 2. 3. Carl C. Seltzer, Ph.D., being sworn, says: I am a doctor of philosophy and have specialized in biological anthropology and epidemiology during my career. I received my undergraduate and doctoral degrees from Harvard University and held staff positions at Harvard and Harvard associated institutions continuously for over 50 years. I have been a consultant at the Boston, Massachusetts, Veteran's Administration Out-Patient Clinic, and have served on the staffs of the Robert Breck Brigham Hospital and the Children's Hospital in Boston. I have been a Fellow of the Council of Epidemiology of the American Heart Association since 1964. I am now an Honorary Research Associate at'the Peabody Museum, Harvard University, and a Visiting Professor at Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. My work in the field of smoking and health has been extensive and I have published nearly 40 articles since 1964 on that subject. 4. I was a consultant to the Surgeon General's Advisory Committee on Smoking and Health and contributed a IV Lq 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ch w 0

Chapter to the Report which was issued in January, 1964. ( [ 5. On several occasions I have submitted statements before committees of the United States Congress, frequently at the specific request of a Senator, regarding legislative proposals relating to the marketing of cigarettes in the United States. My first statement was in April 1969; my most recent was in March 1983. Attached are copies of each of the statements I have submitted. 6. Differing views have been presented over the years regarding tobacco use and disease causation. While there has been a continuing scientific controversy on this subject, many researchers, because of unscientific bias and preconceived beliefs, have ignored the constitutional hypothesis. The constitutional hypothesis maintains that smokers and non-smokers are different kinds of people predisposed by heredity which influences subsequent environmental interactions as to smoking habits. Thus, persons with certain constitutional (genetic) make-up are more likely to develop certain diseases than are the same people more likely to smoke. 2

7. The constitutional hypothesis is supported by my work which was reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 1963. That study was summarized in the 1964 Report of the Advisory Committee as follows: The comparison of 234 non-smokers and 688 smokers showed that the two groups were significantly differentiated both in morphologic dimensions and proportions. In every instance, the smokers had larger mean dimensions than the non-smokers, and in all but one instance these differences were .statistically significant. Smokers were consistently greater than non-smokers in height, weight, and in the dimensions of the head, face, shoulders, chest, hip, leg, and hand. Similarly, the smokers of cigarettes only, pipes only, and cigars only had larger mean dimensions than those of the non-smoker category. In addition, in eight out of ten bodily indices or proportions the smoker types showed mean deviations from the non- smoker that were all in the same direction and indicative of the same trend. A consistent graded pattern of differentiation into a specific order of arrangement of non-smokers, cigarette only, pipe only, and cigaj only smokers, in that order, was found. 8. 1 My primary area of interest in recent years has been the epidemiological study of the claimed causal relationship of smoking and coronary heart disease. My early research led me to believe that such relationship U.S. Public Health Service. Smoking and Health. 1964. U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service Publication No. 1103, p. 386. 3 N CJl ~ ~ 0 ~ cs U! W N

had not been demonstrated, and I presented that view in my first congressional statement. Additional research I conducted confirmed my belief, which I so stated in later statements. 9. In 1985 I reported research which found that smokers differ from non-smokers in many ways. My research and that of a number of other authors supports the applicability of the constitutional hypothesis to other illnesses that are claimed to be related to cigarette smoking. In my paper dealing with pre-smoking differences between non-smokers and eventual smokers, we analyzed the antecedent psychosocial characteristics of a large cohort of boys and girls before some of them later began to smoke cigarettes as teenagers. Our findings included the following: This study shows that teenage smokers, prior to the adoption of the cigarette habit, differed from teenage nonsmokers in several important antecedent psychosocial characteristics. The trends of the mean differences between the groups were alike for boys and girls in every instance, emphasizing the significance and stability of the results. The baseline differences which we have observed demonstrate that teenage smokers and nonsmokers are not representative samples of the same population except for the smoking habit. t 4

The effect of self-selection is manifestly demonstrated.z 10. 2 Data reported in my most recent publication continues to support the hypothesis that relative to coronary heart disease there are constitutional differences between smokers and non-smokers. In that paper, I examined published data from the continuing epidemiologic investigation of heart disease begun in 1948-I950 by the United States National Institutes of Health among adult residents of Framingham, Mass. The Framingham Heart Study is widely recognized as the preeminent and most comprehensive sustained epidemiological investigation of the precursors of coronary heart disease that has ever been conducted. As I noted in my paper, "the results for cigarette smoking and CHD in the Framingham Heart Study do not agree with the conventional 'established wisdom' that there is a casual relationship between them.'13 My conclusion to this date has not been challenged; indeed, the British Medical Journal has summarized my paper as follows: Seltzer, C.C., Oechsli, F.W. Psychosocial Characteristics of Adolescent Smokers Before They Started Smoking: Evidence of Self-Selection. Jnl. Chronic Dis. 3_8(1): 17-26; 1985. N 3 Seltzer, C.C. Framingham Study Data and "Established o Wisdom" About Cigarette Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease. Q Jn1. C.Zin. Epidemiol. 42 (8) : 743-750; 1989. ~ 0 tn 5 W .rN

"It is better to have smoked and stopped than never to have smoked at all": or so it would seem from the data collected in the Framingham Heart Study. An analysis of these data by Carl C. Seltzer (Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 1989; 42:743-50) shows that ex-smokers had a lower rate of coronary heart disease than people who had never smoked. This remained true in five analyses at intervals of nine to 22 years after the initial assessment. For both men and women the Framingham data.are out of line with conventional wisdom on smoking, in that they show only weak or absent associations between smoking and heart disease. And yet the Framingham study is the Ro11s-Royce of epidemiological studies.4 11. Those who maintain the view that there is a causal connection between cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease cannot ignore, reduce or dismiss the contrary evidence from the data of the Framingham study. To do so would be to replace scientific integrity for the sake of accommodation to the embrace of preconceived beliefs and the pressures of universal propaganda. 61 j"7 e ~~ Carl C. Seltzer, F{h.D. Sworn to before me this ~ day of ~ UQJ~F , 1990 a NOTARY OUBLiC ~ 4 British Medical Journal 299: N Cn 0 ~ 0 ~ 524; August 19 1989. 0 , ~ w ~