Philip Morris
Statement Before OSHA Informal, Public Hearing on Proposed Rulemaking Vis-A-Vis Indoor Air Quality on (1) Passive Smoking and Heart Disease, and (2) Smoker Misclassification Effects in Passive Smoking Studies by A. Judson Wells Volunteer Consultant, Smoking and Health
Fields
- Author
- Wells, A.J.
- Type
- TRAN, TRANSCRIPT
- BIBL, BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Document File
- 2081784667/2081784736/A. Judson Wells, Ph.D.
- Litigation
- Feda/Produced
- Named Person
- Burghuber
- Correa
- Cummings
- Davis, J.W.
- Fontham
- Garfinkel
- Glantz, S.A.
- He
- Helsing
- Janerich
- Johnson, D.C.
- Kazemi, H.
- Lee, P.N.
- Parmley, W.W.
- Penn
- Sandler
- Sinzinger, H.
- Steenland, K.
- Stewart, W.
- Taylor, A.E.
- Wells, A.J.
- Correa
- Site
- R100
- Named Organization
- American Heart Assn
- American Lung Assn
- Circulation
- Council on Cardiopulmonary + Critical Ca
- Ei Dupont De Nemours
- Environment Intl
- Epa, Environmental Protection Agency
- Federal Register
- Harvard Univ
- Johns Hopkins
- Journal of the American College of Cardi
- Journal of the American Medical Assn
- Kenneth G Brown
- Niosh, Natl Inst for Occupational Safety & Health
- OSHA, Occupational Safety & Health Administration
- Science Advisory Board
- American Lung Assn
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- CENTRAL FILES/STORED FILES
- Date Loaded
- 21 Aug 2002
- UCSF Legacy ID
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misclassification. I will also comment on the ETS part of OSHA's
Preliminary Quantitative Risk Assessment as published in the
Federal Register,2 April 5, 1994.
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I. Heart Disease and Passive Smoking
Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, also known as
passive or involuntary-smoking, results in a number of adverse
health effects. Although most of the attention, for adults, has
been directed toward lung cancer, heart diselse, at least in
terms of probable deaths, is much more important. The reason is
that the percent increase in risk from ETS exposure is about the
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same for both diseases, but lung cancer among people who have
never smoked is a rare disease while heart disease among never
smokers is many times more common. Therefore the same small
fraction of deaths multiplied by a much large number of total
deaths results in a large number of deaths attributed to passive
smoking.
Over the past six years there have been five papers in the
peer-reviewed literature that have assessed the available
evidence on adult mortality from passive smoking and heart
disease. Each of these papers is appended as part of this
testimony. The five papers are also listed in Table 1.
The first is a paper of mine3 published in December 1988 in
the journal Environment International. The seven epidemiologic
studies then available on passive smoking and heart disease were
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reviewed. The relative risks from the seven
studies were pooled v
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to develop a combined relative risk which indicates a 30%
increase in risk for ETS exposure and a predicted 32,000 heart
deaths per year in the U.S. among nonsmokers that are caused by
passive smoking.
The second, important peer-reviewed paper is that of Glantz
and Parmley4 published in January'1991 in Circulation which is
the leading medical journal of the American Heart Association.
They reviewed not only the epidemiologic studies and Wells' death
estimate but also provided a thorough review of the physiology
and biochemistry that connects ETS exposure with heart disease.
They conclude that "ETS causes heart disease."
The third important papers came from Kyle Steenland of the
National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in the
January 1992 issue of the Journal of the American Medical
Association. He reviewed again the epidemiologic studies, now
grown to nine, and the biologic plausibility. He then made a
risk assessment based on the relative risk from the largest U.S.
study and concluded that if the epidemiologic results are valid,
then there were 35,000 to 40,b00 ischemic heIrt disease deaths
per year in the United States that were associated with passive
smoking. Ischemic heart disease is that type of heart disease
where there is obstruction in the coronary arteries so that part
of the heart muscle becomes disabled because of lack of oxygen.
The fourth paperb is a medical/scientifip position statement
from the American Heart Association published in the August 1992
issue of Circulation. The authors, Taylor, Johnson and Kazemi,
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statement before oBHA informal, Public Hearing
on Proposed Rulemaking vis-o-via lndoor'Air Quality on
(i) Passive smoking and Heart Disease, and (2) Smoker
1[isclassification Effects in Passive Smoking Studies
by A. Judson Wells '
Volunteer Consultant, Smoking and Health
My name is A. Judson Wells. I hold a Ph.D. in physical
chemistry from Harvard University. I was employed in the
chemical industry, specifically by E.I. dupont de Nemours and
Company, from 1941 until 1980 in chemical research, research
management and general management. From 1969 to 1980 I was
director of a business division with revenues of $125,000,000 per
year.
Since 1981 I have served as a volunteer consultant in the
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smoking and health area for the American Lung Association. For
the whole of that time I have studied the scientific literature
on the health effects of passive smoking. From 1989 to 1993 I
was an unpaid consultant to Kenneth G. Brown, Inc., a
subcontractor to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in
their work leading up to the publication of their report:
Respiratory Health Effects of Passive Smoking: Lung Cancer and
other Disorders.' I am a co-author of that report. More
recently I have consulted, again unpaid, for the U.S.
Occupational Safety and Health Administration on health effects
of passive smoking and am testifying on their behalf today.
In my testimony today I will be covering two topics: (1)
the association of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)
and heart disease, and (2) methods for correcting observed
passive smoking relative risks for the effects of smoker
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reviewed again the available evidence and concluded that "ETS is
a major preventable cause of cardiovascular disease and death."
The fifth important peer-reviewed paper7 is one of mine
published August 1, 1994, in the Journal of the American College
of Cardiology, another leading medical journal in the heart
field. This paper reviews the newer studies since Glantz and
Parmley that support the biologic plausibility of a link between
passive smoking and heart disease. Results qf the epidemiologic
studies, now grown to 13, are again pooled. They indicate a 37%
increase in ischemic heart disease morbidity and a 22% increase
in heart disease death for those exposed to ETS at home versus
those not so exposed. Then, using the EPA's methods of
calculating deaths from the relative risksi, it is concluded that
in 1985 there were 62,000 heart deaths per year in the U.S.
caused by passive smoking.
These five papers covering some 48 pages of medical journal
text cannot be reviewed in detail here, but the main points will
be summarized. There are several ways in which tobacco smoke can
affect the heart even though there is no direct contact between
the smoke and the heart itself. As with lung cancer, active
smoking causes heart disease.8 Therefore we would expect passive
smoking also to cause heart disease but in lesser amounts. There
is one important difference between lung cancer and heart disease
as far as ETS exposure is concerned. With lung cancer the only
effect is long term, say 20 years exposure, before a cancer
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appears. With ETS and heart disease there are both long term and 0
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Another short term effect is that provided by the carbon
monoxide in the smoke. Carbon monoxide is the odorless,
colorless, toxic gas that also occurs in the exhaust from
automobiles. Carbon monoxide reacts with the hemoglobin in the
blood and renders it incapable of transporting oxygen. It is the
ability of the blood hemoglobin to carry oxygen from the lungs to
the heart, brain and muscles that sustains life. Typical ETS
atmospheres contain from 3 to 25 parts per million of carbon
monoxide resulting in 0.4% to 5% of the hemoglobin being
inactivated.7 A typical situation would be 15 parts per million
resulting in 2% being inactivated. When 30% of the hemoglobin is
inactivated the result is death.14 With part of the blood
hemoglobin inactivated by carbon monoxide from ETS exposure, the
heart must work harder for the same level of physical exertion.
But the carbon monoxide also affects the ability of the heart to
process oxygen by attacking some of the proteins and enzymes in
the heart muscle that are essential to what is called myocardial
mitochondrial respiration.4 Thus ETS exposure reduces the
effective blood supply to the heart while at the same time
reducing the heart's ability to process the blood it receives.
This results in reduced exercise capability both in healthy
people and particularly in people with existing coronary disease.
Going on now to long term effects, one theory about how
heart attacks arise is that first there is damage to the coronary
artery wall. Then plaque builds up around the injury, eventually N
reducing the blood supply to the heart and thereby causing the O
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heart attack. In the platelet experiments that I described
earlier9'11 it was also noticed that short term ETS exposure of
nonsmokers results in an increase in endothelial cell carcasses
in the blood. This indicates damage to the endothelium which is
the very thin lining in artery walls. Such qamage could provide
a starting point for plaque formation. Once.the initial damage
is done researchers have found that exposure'to cigarette smoke
accelerates the growth of these plaques. In other words, not
more plaques form, but bigger ones form sooner. These
experiments, in mice, pigeons, chickens, rabbits and dogs so
far,4 indicate that it is the polyaromatic hydrocarbons in the
smoke that are causing the effect. The most recent of these
papers, namely that by Penn, et al.'s shows a significant
increase in plaque development when cockerels were exposed to the
smoke from one cigarette over a 16 week period. Moreover, one
researcher16 has found through ultrasound experiments that the
arterial walls in humans become thicker if t4e subjects smoke or
are exposed to ETS.
Another long term effect is that ETS exposure appears to
raise total cholesterol in the blood while lowering the high
density or good cholesterol7. This is another known heart
disease risk factor. Other researchersl'f have found that ETS
exposure reduces plasma ascorbic acid (vitamin C) levels in
nonsmokers by an amount that is 65% of the reduction experienced
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very short term effects, some apparent after only 20 minutes
exposure.
Let's look at the short term effects first. The platelets
in the blood are one of the factors that determine the blood's
tendency to coagulate, and platelet sensitivity is a measure of
this tendency. Active smokers have a lower platelet sensitivity
than nonsmokers, meaning that their blood is less resistant to
clotting. The evidence for decreased platelet sensitivity among
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nonsmokers exposed to ETS comes from the laboratories of J.W.
Davis in Kansas City9 18and H. Sinzinger in Vienna, Austria". For
example, Davis found that nonsmokers exposed only 20 minutes in a
hospital lobby where smoking was allowed lost about 60% of their
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platelet sensitivity advantage over active smokers. However,
their platelet sensitivity returned to normal shortly after the
exposure ceased. Similar results from Burghqber, et al.11 in
sinzinger's group are shown in Figure 1. Here the ETS exposure
is also for 20 minutes but at a somewhat higher level. As you
can see, the nonsmokers have lost about 80% of their platelet
sensitivity advantage over the smokers. Sinzinger's group12 also
found that after repeated ETS exposures, nonsmokers' baseline
platelet sensitivity was reduced to a level nearer to that of the
smokers. Low platelet sensitivity is a known heart risk factor.
Experiments by Davisl3 with sham cigarettes indicate that the
lowered platelet sensitivity is related to the nicotine in the
cigarette smoke.
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Summarizing the epidemiology, there is a 20$ to 30% increase
in risk of ischemic heart disease death associated with exposure
to spousal or household ETS.7 The increase in morbidity risk is
similar to that for mortality. There is also strong evidence
that the risks from ETS exposure at work are similar to those
experienced at home. Also these increases risk cannot be
accounted for by the other known heart risk factors, and, as I
shall note later, they are not accounted for by the
misclassification of smokers as nonsmokers.
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II. The Effects of Smoker Misclassification on Passive
Smoking Relative Risks
In this part of my testimony I will be discussing the
misclassification of current and past smokers as never smokers
and the effects that such misclassification has on the observed
relative risks in passive smoking studies. In doing so I will be
defending Appendix B in the EPA reportl on ETS and lung cancer.
Appendix B describes EPA's methods of dealinq with this type of
misclassification; I was the author of Appenc}ix B; and the
tobacco industry consultants have criticized our methods. I will
deal with the effects of smoker misclassification on heart
disease relative risks later.
Why is smoker misclassification an issue? It is known that
a small percentage of smokers, if asked if they ever smoked, will
say no. It is also known that smokers tend to marry smokers and N
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nonsmokers tend to marry nonsmokers. Therefore, for a given ~
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level of misclassification; more of these real smokers will show
up in the group of so-called never smokers married to the smokers
than in the group married to the never smokers. In the case of
lung cancer the high relative risk among those few misclassified
smokers will raise the average lung cancer risk of the self-
reported never smokers, and it will raise it more for those
married to the smokers than for those married to the never
smokers. This then will create a perceived increase in risk that
could be mistaken for a passive smoking effect. There is no
question that such a misclassification effect exists. The real
question is, how big is it?
The EPA method for estimating the bias introduced by smoker
misclassification was developed by Dr. Walter Stewart of the
Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and myself. Dr. Stewart is
an expert in occupational health epidemiology. The method is
basically his which I have adapted to passive smoking. Our
method involves dividing the misclassified smokers into three
groups, (1) current regular smokers, with cotinine levels like
average self-reported current smokers, (2) current occasional
smokers, and (3) ex-smokers. Misclassification rates are then
developed for each class of misclassifieds using cotinine data
for the current smokers and discordant answer studies for the
exsmokers. Proportionate distributions of controls and cases by
smoking status of subjects and spouses are developed using
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demographic data and smoking relative risks. The
misclassification rates are then applied to the various
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The results of these smaller studies can be pooled to see if,
together, they indicate higher statistical significance. When
this is done we find that, in mortality studies for both men and
women, when the Helsing study is removed, the pooled results for
the remaining studies show an odds ratio of 1.26 that is still
highly statistically significant. A new study from Xian, China19
not included by OSHA in their proposal in thq Federal Register,
while too small (59 cases) to show statistically significant
adjusted relative risks, did investigate the heart effects on
nonsmoking women exposed to ETS both at home and at work. For
exposure at work there was an 85% increase i~ risk with a highly
statistically significant trend of increasinq risk with
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increasing amounts of ETS exposure. Only 8% of women in that
part of China smoke, but most of the men smoke and they smoke
freely at work, so the study provides an excellent opportunity to
judge the effects of ETS exposure at work on heart disease in
nonsmokers.
In many of the ETS/heart studies the crude risks were
adjusted for various other heart risk factors. The relative
risks noted above: are the adjusted relative risks after
adjusting for such factors as high blood pressure, high
cholesterol, personal or family history of heart disease, weight
or body mass index, and education or social status. Thus the
potentially most important confounders have been considered and
found not to explain the observed increased xisk.
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Thus we have ample biologic evidence that passive smoking
can affect the blood in ways that are injurious to the heart, and
that these effects are often stronger than one would expect
considering the difference in dose between active and passive
smoking.
To get some idea of the magnitude of the heart risk from
passive smoking one must turn to the epidemiology. There are now
thirteen studies7 based on over 3000 cases where either heart
disease or heart death was studied relative to ETS exposure.
This is an enormous data base compared to what is usually
available in regulating workplace toxins. Five of the studies
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are U.S. based. The others come from Australia, China, England,
Japan, New Zealand and Scotland. Eight of the studies are
mortality studies, and four of them have data for both males and
females resulting in twelve separate data points which are shown
in Figure 2. The twelve odds ratios, or relative risks for the
prospective studies, are plotted on a log scale against the
statistical weights for each data point. As you can see, for the
smaller studies there is considerable scatter, but when the
statistical weight gets beyond abut 20, the odds ratios become
very stable in the 1.15 to 1.30 range. The combined odds ratio
for all of the studies, as shown at the right, is 1.22 and is
dominated by the large, statistically significant, Helsing, et
al.18 study which comprises 42% of the total cases. Many of the
other studies are too small to reach statistical significance at
the 95% level but they do indicate appreciable increased risks.
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OSHA has used as a lung cancer relative risk the
occupational risk of 1.34 for women from the preliminary report
by Fontham, et al.Z1 This is without doubt the best U.S. study
and is an appropriate choice. However, the final report22 for
that study is now available so the updated occupational relative
risk of 1.39 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.11 to 1.74
should be used. For heart disease OSHA used the relative risk
for household ETS exposure from the largest U.S. heart study,
namely, Helsing et al.76 This again is appropriate. However, an
alternative analysis of the data based on a somewhat different
mathematical model appears in Sandler, et al.a The relative
risk for males at 1.31 is the same in both papers but the
relative risk for females is slightly different, namely, 1.19 in
Sandler versus 1.24 in Helsing. Dr. Sandler advises that these
two estimates are statistically equivalent so an average of, say,
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1.21 might be appropriate for the female relative risk. OSHA's
discussion of why the household exposure data can be used for
occupational exposure is appropriate and well done. Major
support for OSHA's position that there is an adverse heart effect
from ETS exposure at the workplace comes from the new He, et al19
paper from Xian, China, that was mentioned earlier. This very
recent study covers females only. Although the number of cases
is not large, this is an excellent paper wit4 about 15 heart
disease risk factors including all of the important ones either
adjusted for or accounted for. These authors found a relative
risk for spousal ETS exposure of 1.24, not significant but very
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sub-classes of smokers to estimate the proportions of each
category misclassified. These are then subtracted from the
proportions of observed never smokers to yield the proportion of
true never smokers among exposed and unexposed cases and
controls. From these numbers a corrected relative risk can be
calculated.
Our method has been peer reviewed by EPA's Science Advisory
Board. In late 1991 Peter Lee, a consultant to the tobacco
industry, came up with an alternative methodaD for estimating the
smoker misclassification bias. As shown in EPA's Appendix B,
which is shown in condensed form in Table 2, when the same inputs
are used, their method and ours give essentially the same
results. However, their inputs are different so their results
are different, namely, much higher bias.
There are four important inputs for these calculations.
They are, as shown in Table 3, (1) the misclassification rates,
(2) the prevalence of smoking among the subjects (the more
smokers, the more will misclassified), (3) the relative risks
assumed for the misclassified smokers, and (4): the marriage
concordance among smokers and non smokers, i.e., the relative
degree to which smokers marry smokers and nogsmokers marry
nonsmokers.
Regarding the first important input, namely,
misclassification rates, we used, for current smokers, all of the
literature data on females where we could get individual cotinine
measurements from the authors. This allowed us to tell exactly
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et al studyZl on which OSSA's lung cancer risk assessment is
based the correction for smoker misclassification is very small
because the authors were able to eliminate most
smokers from the study by cotinine tests.
of the current
For heart disease there is an even smaller correction for
smoker misclassification. The reason is that the relative risk
for active smoking for heart disease is much lower than for lung
cancer, about 1.7 versus about 4 world wide for lung cancer in
females or about 8 in recent U.S. studies. This lower relative
risk carries over to the smokers misclassified as never smokers,
thus lowering the correction. In Wells' recent paperT on passive
smoking and heart disease the pooled heart relative risk for
females was lowered only from 1.25 to 1.24 by the smoker
misclassification correction. For males the correction was
larger, 1.38 to 1.30, because of the larger proportion of
smokers. Again, these corrections are probably too large by a
factor of two to four.
Comments on the O8HA Preliminarv Risk Rssessment
The passive smoking risk assessments that have been carried
out so far both for lung cancer and for heart disease have
covered the entire U.S. population. This risk assessment by OSHA
is the first, to my knowledge, that is restricted entirely to
workplace exposure. Although I might differ on some of the
details, the assessment methodology is well conceived and the N
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similiar to the combined result for home exposure from all of the
other studies. In addition they found an almost statistically
significant relative risk for workplace exposure of 1.85 with a
highly statistically significant upward trencl as workplace
exposure increased. As I noted earlier, Xian is a good place to
study the effects of ETS exposure on the heart because very few
women smoke there, about 8%, thereby cutting down on background
and misclassification effects, but most of the men smoke, and
they smoke freely both at home and at work. The high workplace
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significant at the 954 level, and when the risks are applied to
the large number of people exposed, a very large public health
risk is indicated.
In the risk assessments for the total population3'S7 it is
customary to adjust the relative risks upward to account for
exposure to background ETS. This is done in order to estimate
the risk relative to a hypothetical population that has no ETS
exposure at all. However, in OSHA's case where they are trying
to determine the effect of workplace exposure alone, using a
relative risk without adjusting for background is more
relative risk mayy result from higher exposure than is typical
U.S. workplaces, but this paper indicates strongly that ETS
exposure at work can indeed result in coronary heart disease,
just as the Fontham, et al paper22 suggests the same for lung
cancer.
Although the risk elevations from Fontham, et al.a and
Helsing, et al.18 are small, the results are statistically
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how many of the false negatives among the never smokers were
really regular smokers and how many were only occasional smokers.
We are the only group that has gone to this extent to develop
accurate current smoker misclassification rates. Similar care
was taken with the exsmoker surveys. We concluded that 1.09% of
regular smokers would say never, plus 24.2% of occasionals and
11.7% of exsmokers. Lee used a single overall misclassification
rate which was in effect, about 30% larger than ours. We used
smoking prevalence and smoker relative risks that were
appropriate for each study. Lee used values that in some cases
were twice as high as indicated in the studies themselves. On
marriage concordance he and we used similar values. The overall
effect when these overages were all multiplied together was, that
his estimated bias was in some cases several times as large as
ours.
There is evidence that even our estimates of the
misclassification effect are too high. Our data come from some
epidemiologic studies but mostly from community survey type
studies. For the regular smokers and the exqmokers, the two most
important classes, the misclassification rates from the community
type surveys tend to run about seven times as large as those from
the few epidemiolologic studies that we have. For example,
Fontham, et al.,r is one of the best lung cancer epidemiologic
studies. After they went through all of their normal
questionnaire procedures, they ran cotinine levels on the
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regular smokers misclassified versus our estimate of 1.09%, and
about 10% of occasional smokers versus our estimate of 24%.
Another indication that our bias estimate is high is found in the
male data. Here smoking prevalences are high. When we used male
misclassification rates derived as above for the female rates, we
found in some studies that the number of smokers misclassified as
never smokers exceeded the number of self-reported never smokers
that we had to start with. This is evidently impossible, again
indicating that our misclassification rates are too high.
To get a measure of the impact of these corrections on the
lung cancer relative risks Dr. Stewart and I pooled the relative
risks from 25 of the lung cancer studies in the EPA report. The
EPA had divided the epidemiologic studies on ETS exposure and
lung cancer into four quality tier levels based on scores for
` various factors either included in or excluded from the various
' studies. They then based their lung cancer risk assessment on
the top three quality tiers. We also used their quality
assignments and drew our 25 studies from the top three tiers.
These were all studies on females. We then corrected each of the
studies for smoker misclassification and pooled the corrected
relative risks. The pooled uncorrected risk was 1.40. The
pooled corrected risk was 1.37. So, for lung cancer, the overall
effect is small. For studies in western countries where female
smoking prevalence is high, the corrections are larger. For
Asian and other studies in conservative societies where female N
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smoking is low, the corrections are very small. For the Fontham, ca
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appropriate. In the final draft some discussion of the point may
be in order.
OSHA may have underestimated the number of nonsmoking
workers exposed to ETS at work based on the Cummings data in
Table IV-9. Those exposed at work but not at home totalled
48.67% but an additional 29.22% said they were exposed both at
home and at work. Therefore the range should be from 18.81% to
77.89%.
OSHA used an incidence rate for lung cancer for nonsmokers.
With the low survival rate this is almost equivalent to a
mortality rate. However, they used a mortality rate for heart
disease. Therefore the risk estimates in Table IV-lo and
surrounding text are inconsistent. They are disease estimates
for lung cancer and death estimates for heart disease. Since the
incidence rate for heart disease is about three times the
mortality rate, the true number of workers exposed to ETS who
"will develop heart disease" could be about three times the
numbers of 7 to 16 per thousand mentioned in the text and shown
in Table IV-10. Perhaps Table IV-10 should be amended to show
three cases, lung cancer incidence, heart disease deaths, and
heart disease incidence.
The reason that the heart disease numbers are so large
relative to lung cancer is that lung cancer 4mong nonsmokers is a
rare disease, so even with an appreciable increase in risk from
ETS exposure, the number of lung cancer deaths from ETS exposure
(about 3000 for the U.S.) is small relative to the number for
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heart disease (about 35,000 to 50,000). However, the ETS lung
cancer deaths are still enormous when compared to those from what
EPA usually regulates, such as asbestos at 15 and vinyl chloride
at 27". With heart disease the underlying death or incidence
rate for nonsmokers is large. The death rate is about 3/0.121 or
25 time as large as for lung cancer. So when this large rate is
multiplied by even a small increase in risk from ETS exposure,
very large numbers result.
In conclusion OSHA is to be commended fqr quantifying these
workplace risks. They are real and they need to be attended to.
19

Table 1. Peer reviewed papers that have assessed the available evidence on adult mortality from
passive
smoking and heart disease.
Wells, A.J. An Estimate of Adult Mortality in the United states from Passive smoking.
Environment International 14:249-265, 1988.
Glantz, S.A., Parmlay, W.W. Passive Smoking and Heart Disease; Epidemiology, Physiology,
circulation 83:1-12, 1991.
and Biochemistry.
Steenland, K. Passive Smoking and Risk of Heart Disease.
Journal of the American Medical Association 267:94-99, 1992. Taylor, A.E., Johnson, D.C., Kazemi, H.
Environmental Tobacco Smoke and Cardiovascular Disease; a
Position Paper from the Council on Cardiopulmonary and Critical Care, American Heart
Association. Circulation 86:699-702, 1992.
Wells, A.J. Passive Smoking as a Cause of Heart Disease.
Journal of the American College of Cardiology 24:546-554, 1994.
689v81L80Z 3

Table 3. The four important inputs in smoker misclassification
bias calculations in passive smoking studies.
1. The misclassification rates for smokers who say they never
smoked.
2. The prevalence of smoking among the study subjects.
3. The relative risks assumed for the misclassified smokers.
4. The degree of marriage concordance among the smokers and
the nonsmokers.
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Table 2. Examples, using five U.S. studies,of differences in smoker misclassification bias between
EPA estimates and those of P.N. Lee regarding passive smoking relative risks for females.
- Lee Hode1 Nells-stewart Nodel
studp Lee inouts Lee inputs EPA Inputs
B&,/88, = Bias &Ra/RAe = Bias RR,/BR, = Bias
Fontham at al 1.32/1.18 - 1.11 1.32/1.13 - 1.16 1.29/1.28 1.01
Garfinkel 1981 1.17/1.02 - 1.14 1.17/1.02 - 1.14 1.17/1.16 1.01
Garfinkel et al 1985 1.23/1.10 - 1.12 1.23/1.08 = 1.14 1.31/1.27 1.03
Janerich et al 0.75/0.62 = 1.21 0.75/0.61 = 1.24 0.86/0.79 1.09
Correa et al 2.07/1.84 - 1.12 2.07/1.70 = 1.22 2.07/1.89 1.10
Adapted from the EPA report', Table B-2.
RRo is the observed relative risk. RR, is the observed relative risk corrected for smoker
misclassification.
4
069ti8L680Z
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