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Tttr; iVSW YORK TIMSS NATIANAI. MONDAY, MARCH 22,0, Otficials closed Smith Point Beach on Fire Island in July 1988 after syringe$ and needles were found in the water. 666£tV~VLOZ

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1 4 ~ ' Sea-DumpingBan: P litr ~ ~ o es ~ ~ Produced a Disputed Policy G~- C'onunued From Page Al • • Dnn Nog.n ChakfRhe New York Time Workers cleaned up sewage in May 1987, top, at the Island Beach State Park in Berkeley, NJ. Raw sewage, above, entered the Hudson River in June 1984 from a pipe on 125th Street in Manhattan.

• . "A victory for the environment is a victory for the environment," she said. But it is not completely clear that a ban on dumping was such an environ- mental triumph. The negative effecfs of burying sludge close to thR shores have been documented with precision. But the dangers of dumping it In deep~ er water are leas r.~le~~r,. - Studies have shown that -sludge de- posited 106 miles out does reach the. ocean floor and, in the words of Dr. Frederick Grassle, director of the Rutgers Institute of Marine and Coast• al Sciences, "it has a minute but meas- urable impact an the deep-sea ecosys~ tem." However, Dr. Grassle also saidd that health risks from the dumping appeared to be minimal - primarily because the ocean rapidly diluted the waste below dangerous concentrations:- Somc researchers have proposed the nearly lifeless plains at the bottom of the oceans as a relatively inexpensive,and safe, disposal site for sludge. They argue that at the deepest levels of the sea - several hundred miles away from any coastline and under neariy,. 16,000 feet of water - the sludge wi{} rest undisturbed and harmless. "' . Short-Sighted Proposal? „ However, many environmentalisYc and some scientists view the researcir proposals for deep-sea burial of slud&; asshm't-sighted. "It will take 10 seconds of logic a4-d: $10 million to prove that this too wflf' have adverse effects on the environ-. ment," said Dr. Elliott A. Norse; a marine ecologist who is chfef scientfsi;: for the Center for Marine Conserva=tion. But John Edmond, professor tsf chemical oceanography at the Massa- chusetts Institute of Technology, said;;; • "There are going to be impacts on oar- society of anything we throw awa}!',; . That includes ocean dumping. Bat.. there is a real crisis in land disposal bf our waste, and we have acted to 6aneven the consideration of ocean dunep=;r ing. "Even if we don't use the uppW , ocean -d and perhaps we should not---t we should think about the sea floor. Bt1(_' people are so emotional about these- issues that they can hardly see or thitkstraight." Next: The problems with laboratory~ testing. N O A ~ 4 3 ~ W ~ tD ~

i THE SCIENCE MOB BY Plrilip J. Hilts v-e( rrruteites: l") tt're t tf,abie, Ck3c~sctve, and re•sourcrlul. t3tu :au h.aYc nu rahees. uFn4stur: Arrcd ivhcre`s thu eaur tn vnur carrcinq-canr xtarTot.tAtLe; C:xnair,r hri<sre canndnesr. tu duises; [{re r's~,hs thlnh :1nYt 1HYt tnM1t SUF1nti it. -Sramtva fEeazwc's transEat¢un u('soph.ECfc~' Pf.ifurfetr. itt the vearc bei"ure `1"or'ItC th'ar TI, science Isas a •smaiL chatated pr<>iestiirnt. fu 1940 tthere were about '(lU.f}(1Q scientists and S7oi rnillion in P(.dernd mtronec. Scientists cc•ere• a eantetuplatiee oracr, ~ul('k tht,ir espu- ................................ ............ .................... _.... I'tnt.tr j. Ittt:rs is a Wasitiel;¢e[a'e curre`ilnxacErnt For The ,r<-w I~srr. TtrrpS. - ---------- - - -------- - - - ------------- 2d 1H!°. \'FN` kFFlr(31JC MdY 18, 1992 The David Baltimore case-and its lessons. Si1rC !a_r the k.Orld X'as InBllted. M'ite6t :m UCCASHCinal t{ue&tiUtl Uf 5fO1PpOnk.°~5 Cir misconduct arose, it W85 C1uP- etly rsesul.ed within the confines 4 the pra.rfessiun. But rFOW, 4i5 the nLmlber ()f scientists reFlL'he,, I million andd their share raf the natiun's, i'eeierul bxdgct reaches 5_'5 billion, the c4eutands dor F'eater accuunta6ilin and upennetis are uelderstandahlc mtlre insistent. Thetiugh scientists watdd like to remain aicLiRf, tt hrotherhrx%d whose standards and integria remain above public reproach, that era is over. I St:rries about scientific rniscondhlct ;tre nrt longer an aherratictn. Indeed. in recentveaLS tite nlost notorious •

. ally exposed to low levels of the suspect subslances. And even if they suffer unusual health problems, it is hard to know whether the illnesses were caused by the substance or something else - smoking, poor diet, etc. "Epidemiology is a real crude tool for looking for associations," Dr. Wilcox ac- knowledged. It is also lime-consuming. As a result, his department, like the pathology laboratory, is able to examine only a tiny percentage ot the substances subjected to animal studies. That nt>"ans the institute and the rest of the Government can seldom offer much more than the animal studies as warnings of a substance's possible danger to humans. ""We're looking for alternative approach- es," Dr. Griesemer said. "But right now, that's what we've got." Quite often, that means no one takes the institute's warnings se'riously any longer. P1'oWms Frustrations Grow With Knowledge Almost two years ago, the results came in from rat and mouse studies of 1,2,3-Irichloroo- propane, an industrial solvent used as a paint and varnish remover or a degreasing agent. Almost every animal exposed to the sub- stance was riddled with tumors "in several organs; " said Dr. Richard D. Irwin, the insti- tute toxicologist who wrote the report. "This is the type of chemical that shows the great- est potential for human effect." "Our understanding is that workers wash themselves in this," Dr. Criesemer said. And since the chemical is absorbed in the skin, he and others said, the finding was particularly. troubling. In Dr. Irwin's view, "It would be real good to get some human data because I'm sure there were people who were exposed to it in the past, maybe even now." £66£tr 4trL6Z • So did the epidemiologists look for people who had been exposed to the substance? "This isn't one we're looking at,° Dr. W il- cox said- Bu1 maybe, he added, the National Cancer Institute's epidemiologists did look at it. The cancer institute has what is probably the world's largest cancer epidemiology de- partment - 100 scientists and support staff. - and they get the animal-study reports automatically. But they seldom choose to begin a study based on the animal research, and they did not initiate one in this case. In 1990, when a rodent study suggested that fluoride might be a carcinogen, "we took that one on," said Dr. Fraumeni, head of epidemi-, ~ ology for the cancer institme. "We found i'nothing, and that was the last time." As for trichloropropane, he said,'9 haven't, heard of it." Dr. Irwin wondered if the Occupational Safety and Health Administration might: have done a survey or found a way to check on workers exposed to the chemical. But Dr. Edward Stein, a health scientist for O.S.H.A., said the agency had done no sur- veys and had not changed its standards for , trichloropt'opane since January 1989, when it Isaued a regulation limiting airborne emis- sions of the substance. , Up to the Manufacturer? As for telling people of the dangers, Dr. Stein added, "The primary manufacturers of, the product would be responsible." "I presume whetl updating training pro- grams at companies that use this, say annu- ally, whoever is doing that would be aware of the new information," Dr. Stein said. "They would make the employees aware of it, but I'm not sure if that is actually being done." "We always have a battle on the Issue of• what to do with the animal data," Dr. Stein. added. "I'm not trying to downplay it, but I do believe other things ought to have priority." So back in North Carolina, Dr. Irwin said: "I really haven't heard of anything happen- ing. It's almost as if our work just goes into a black box." Acknowledging that problem, Dr. Olden said: "I have to say we don't serve the American people very well right now. But that's where we are." I

. - I Animal Tests as Risk Clues: i The Best Data May Fall Short . ByJOELKRINKLEY .0NI-e~ ~ryty~MVMYorkTmea GAITHERSBURG, Md., March 20 - Doaena of caged rats and mice spend t Price Cleanup? Wha a fErICA 9'huf(,NrfIFJ°q( their iMytibere In a taboratory, chewing the natfMt'a enNUU6 on PJttna rodent chow laced with as is tkY+Wn iaio much boric acid as they can tolerate As a result, even br. Kenneth Olden, without risk of death from poisoning. director ot the National Institute of These rodents and more than 1,000 Environmental Health Sciences, the others are being used to study seven branch of the National Institutes of common environmental and household He~th that direct ; the animal studies, - chemicals to see if any cause reproduc- ask whether Ihe nation is wasting i9ve problems. The rats and mice are billions of dollars reguiating sub- allowed to breed at will. Then scientists stancr~ Ihat might pose little risk. , here at R.O.W. Sciences, a research ~ Thc findings from about 450 animal laboratory that works under Federal studies over the last several decades, contract, examine several generations of offspring for abnormalities or de- fects. This project is just one of roughly 65 rodent studies under way at 15 labora- tories across lhe country at an average cost of about $2 million each. For much of the last two decades, these studies have been the Government's most im- portant diagnostic tool for identifying environmental problems that are health hazards and setting priorities - for Federalregulation. Billions Down the Drain? But now the animal-studies program "is being hobbled by doubts about its worth. So much evidence has accumu- lated that chemicals frequently have wholly different effects in animals and humans that officials throughout Gov-' ' ernment and industry often do not act ' on the studies' findings. And with that growing skepticism, the raatlonale behind a large portion of Continued on Page A16, Column I i L66£ti4tiLOZ Continued From Page Af Dr. Olden said, have led Federal and state governments to write thousands of regulations forcing government and industry to spend tens of billions of dollars a year regulating the use and disposal of several dozen chemicals, or finding alternatives for chemicals that have been restricted or banned. For instance, it was data from ro- dent studies that led the Government to ban or restrict the use of two kinds of artificial sweeteners, cyclamates and saccharin, as well-as the pesticide DDT and the industrial byproduct dioxin. In Dr. Olden's view, "That's art awful lot of money to be spending to be regulating sub- stances we might not have to be regulating at all if we had more information." After spending many billions of dollars to *clean up dioxin, the Government is midway through a reassessment because new studies of people exposed to dioxin - once consid- ered one of the most poisonous substances in the world - show it is not nearly as harmful as originally believed. Similarly, John A. Moore, a former assist- ant administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency who now heads the pri- vate Institute for Evaluating Health~Risks, noted that DDT was banned because it was believed to be a carcinogen. But new data show that it poses "a rela- tively modest cancer risk," Dr. Moore said, though DDT does present other environmen- tal hazards. And as for some of the other chemicals that have caused cancer in ro- dents, Dr. Richard A. Griesemer, deputy director of Dr. Olden's institute, offered some additional revisionist ideas. "Saccharin doesn't have much risk," he said, "and I don't think cyclamates have any risk at all." Scott Green understands the weaknesses of his research. He is R.O.W.'s laboratory, manager, and he did note that the reproduc- tive studies "are already finding snme ef- fects." Some rats and mice are producing fewer litters that are smaller than average. "But is that relevant to what's happening out there in the environment?" he asked. "I can't tell you." •

GREGG EASTERBROOK: HAS ENVIRONMENTALISM BLOWN IT? Has environmentalism blown it? GREEN CASSANDRAS By Gregg Easterbrook T he distinction between a bicycle accident and the end of ci ilizarion has seldom been so blurred as at the Earth Summit. recently con- cluded in Rio de Janeiro. There. discussion of palpable threats to nature mixed in equal proportion • with improbable claims of instant doom. Emironmen- talists, who wnuld seem to have an interest in separating . ........ . ......... . ........................ _ ..................................... _ ..................................... GREGG E.ISTERBROOR is a contributing editor for .\'ewsweek and The d!(¢ntic. the types of alarms, instead encouraged the confusion - on doctrinal grounds. namely that all environmental news should be negative. This ccorldview mav be appro- priate for fund-raising and facultv sherrv hours, but it can backfire in the realm of public policc. Consider the interplav between global warming hype and the Earth Summit. Most C.S. pollution controls exceed those of other nations. including Japan and Western Europe. Carbon emissions are the one impor- tant environmental category where :lmerica is the worst JULV fi. t992 THE NEw REPUBLIC 23

• • . nC Ssaftu1etIto:BCe taory sim.a aes.drd a ros yaw ^%U UetxAX+++r,.ros }s7 r.u oxktcWtbn..atxo~.~~ tsasims ¢FUNoRMoaAtr++r.arr+crr+imsWt wiu.f8lP.rotE9..elat tiDS•IYN CJERIOCtKt'a+r.pr, rmbIM f1tIMoRV FAVHE. .raM..abr PE't~t BdsUO, .Abr W pnp. ab RWW RJ.MMtiJM4R A crisis that wasn't n the late 1980s, it became an artide of faith at the National Science Foundation -that America w00-running out of scientists Iattd engineers. By the year 2010, the agency predicted, there would be a shortfall of 675,000 of these valuable specialists. NSF'a chief administrator in those days, ;Erich Bloch, tirelessly repeated that gloomy forecaat to academic leaders, the media and especially to Congress when NSFs budget 'came up for review. His claims in turn were kited as further proof of the failure of Ameri- kaait educational institutions and of our in- "ity to keep paoew with Japan in an in- kteaeingly competitive world economy. ;Out as a recent congressional investigi ion makes dear, Bloch's shortfall never ma- Instead, the General Accounting ice reports that there'o a surplus of aaien- iata and engineers, that unemployment tee in some disciplines far exceed the na- ~bonal average and that beginning salaries for newly minted PhD's in many of these `,f'ietds are way down. NSFs faulty prediction turns out to have " the product of its own Policy and Re- hearch Analysis Division. The original re• port proclaiming the shortage was itself so iladly flawed and drew so much criticism xrom the statistical experts who reviewed it that NSFs Office of Legislative and Public Affairs refused to publish it at all. But that didn't atop Bloch from circulating thousands of photocopies and computer printouts far and wide. T he author of the report, Peter House, told a congressional hearing that he never really intended to influence public pol- icy and that he had no idea that his study had so much impact. The chairman of the in- vestigating subcommittee then read back to him passages from one of House's own books in which he extolled the considerable influ , ence his report had exercised over scienoe policy and how it had been assiduously dis- tributed among decision-makers. Bloch him- self made 55 speeches between 1987 and 1990 warning of the impending shortfall. Congress and much of the scientific com- munity have joined in expressing dismay at this tawdry chapter and the blot it has left on NSF's claim to scientific integrity. There may be some relief in finding that at least one of the threats to the nation didn't turn out to be so bad after all. But it's quickly dis- sipated by the thought that now we need to start worrying about what to do with all those unemployed scientists and engineers. 0

Animal Tests as Risk Clues; The Best Data May Fall Shorti . ByJOELBRINKLEY Spocalb•ReNMYwkTlmn GAITHERSBURG, Md., March 20 - Dozens of caged rats and mice spend their days here in a laboratory chewing on Purina rodent chow laced with as much boric acid as they can tolerate without risk of death from poisoning. These rodents and more than I,606 others are being used to study seven common environmental and househo(d chemicals to see if any cause reproduc- tive problems. The rats and mice are allowed to breed at will. Then scientists here at R.O.W. Sciences, a research laboratory that works under Federal contract, examine several generations of offspring for abnormalities or de- fects. This project is just one of roughly 65 rodent studies under way at 151abora- tories across the country at an average cost of about $2 million each. For much of the last two decades, these studies have been the Government's most im- portant diagnostic tool for identifying environmental problems that are health hazards and setting priorities for Federal regulation. • Bllllons Down the Drain? But now the animal-studies program is being hobbled by doubts about its worth. So much evidence has accumu- lated that chemicals frequently have wholly different effects in animals and humans that officials throughout Gov-' ernment and industry often do not act on the studies' findinp. And with that growing skepticism, the rationale behind a large portion of What Price Cleanup? Third lAic(e pf a wrfas. the nation's Mp! ,tlittlalis thrown inttt = >' s ' As a result, even Dn Kenneth Oiden, director of the National Institute of Environmental HealU Sciences, the branch of the National Inatitutes of He th that direcc+ the animal studies, ask whether the nation is wasting billions of dollars regulating sub- slamtr:Ihat might pose little risk. . 7hc Ilndings from about 450 animal sutdies over the last several decades, Continued on Page AI8, Column I ebbChih L0-C Continued From Page Al Dr. Olden said, have led Federal and state governments to write thousands of regulations forcing government and industry to spend tens of billions of dollars a year regulating the use and disposal of several dozen chemicals, or finding alternatives for chemicals that have been restricted or banned. For instance, it was data from ro- dent sttidies that led the Government to ban or restrict the use of two kinds of artificial sweeteners, cyclamates and saccharin, as welPas the pesticide DDT and the industrial byproduct dioxin. In Or. Olden's view, "That's an awful lot of money to be spending to be regulating sub- stances we might not have to be regulating at all if we had more information." After spending many billions of dollars to clean up dioxin, the Government Is midway through a reassessment because new studies of people exposed to dioxin - once consid- ered one of the most poisonous substances in the world - show it is not nearly as harmful as originally believed, Similarly, John A. Moore, a former assist- ant administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency who now heads the pri- vate Institute for Evaluating Health Risks, noted that DDT was banned because it was believed to be a carcinogen. But new data show that it poses "a rela-tively modest cancer risk," Dr. Moore said, though DDT does present other environmen- tal hazards. And as for some of the other chemicals that have caused cancer in ro- denls, Dr. Richard A. Griesemer, deputy director of Dr. Olden's institute, offered some additional revisionist ideas. "Saccharin doesn't have much risk," he said,'•and I don't think cyclamates have any risk at all." Scott Green understands the weaknesses of his research. He is R.O.W.'s laboratory, manager, and he did note that the reproduc- tive studies "are already finding some ef- fects." Some rats and mice are producing fewer litters that are smaller than average. "But is that relevant to what's happeningout there in the environment?" he asked. "1 can't tell vou."