Philip Morris
Tobacco-Related Disease
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- Peto, R.
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I 48
New Scientist 24 May 7984
Experimental animals
E. Pascoe's attack on Dr Alma
is disingenuous (Letters, 12
April. p 54). If his pamphlet was
not intended to dissuade young
researchers from becoming too
concerned about the use of animals
in experiments, why choose the
very odd wording which he
employs? \Vhy the persistent
emphasis on whether the
researcher finds a particular
experiment upsetting to do? Why
not. for example, a paragraph
simply stating:
"Vv'e can reasonably make the
assumption that the experience of
pain. discomfort or mental anguish
is an evil for all sentient creatures.
Hence it is obligatory, for the
researcher to take all possible
measures to reduce any distress
likely to result from an
experiment. Anaesthetics.
analgesics and tranquillisers may
be used. or it may be possible to
substitute in vitro methods. You
should discuss the proposed
experiment with your colleagues,
and with the Ho~e Office
Inspector. and seek advice from a
statistician so that numbers of
animals can be reduced to the
minimum needed to yield a valid
result. You should famitiarise
yourself with the relevant literature
so that you can be confident what
you propose to do really does
represent a new contribution to
;cience, If your proposed work
nvolves surge~', it is desirable to
:[iscuss it with colleagues who
possess veterinary, qualifications."
As it stands, the pamphlet can
only give young biologists the
impression that. so far as the
Physiological Society is concerned,
concern about the feelings of
experimental animals is merely an
irrational prejudice,
Rosemary Rodd
Scientifid adviser Quaker Concern
./'or Animal ;f'elfare
Cambridge
As a laboratory technician working
with animals Iapplaud Gill
Langley's article on the
exploitation of laboratoD' animals
(Redundancy for the laboratory
guinea pig", 3 May, p 12).
All animals should be free from
our modern concentration camps.
To cause suffering to any creature
is wrong, and I long for the day
that I can talk about my job
without feeling guilt.
Ashby McGowan
Glasgow
Sounds bad
I object to the Fisher advertisement
in New Scientist (I0 May, pp
34-35), The advertisement refers to
an imaginery Daphne Heaton-
Smvthe as an inane woman who
"thi'nks 'Wow" and 'Hurter' are
dogs in the local hunt', Her
husband "more sensibly" (of
course) realises how good the
product is.
As a woman (who happens to be
a scientist and head teacher of a
girls" comprehensive school) I find
this deeply offensive.
Sister Mary B. 0 ?vSaIIey
West Didsbury
Manchester
Pesticide hazards
Using alternatives such as cell
cultures instead of live animals (3
May, p 12) is one way of reducing
animal experimentation: freedom
of information is another.
Under Britain's Pesticides Safety
Precautions Scheme~ however,
many manufacturers may wish to
sell the same pesticide they must
all repeat an identical battery of
toxicity tests. Each manufacturer's
results are kept secret from the
others--and from the public. The
object apparently is to stop, say,
the 20th manufacturer of a given
pesticide getting safety clearance
without meeting the same costs as
the first.
That may appeal to accountants,
but from every, other point of view
it is wasteful and senseless.
Animals are endlessly sacrificed
repeating tests that have been done
many times before; and people
who work with, or are exposed to,
pesticides are denied basic
information about their hazards
(the Ad~4sory Committee on
Pesticides won't even say what
kinds of tests have been done, let
alone discuss the results).
The government has announced
that it proposed new pesticide
legislation. It has the opportunity
to introduce a more efficient and
accountable system. Publish a
manufacturers' results the first
time they are done. When a second
manufacturer wants to market the
same chemical, it could be
required to compensate the first for
sharing the original data, instead of
pointlessly duplicating it. Even
better, the money could go to a
central research ~'und and be used
to investigate new problems. That
would prevent much wasteful
experimentation: it would increase
the amount of original research
done on such chemicals: and it
would for the first time allow
public access to basic information
about pesticide hazards.
Maurice Frankel
The ] 984 Campaign for Freedom
of InJbrmation
London
Dialogues of the deaf
The example of the short paper On
the role and activities of the
Advisor' Board for the Research
Council~ (ABRC) and inability of
scientists to comprehend it
(Forum, 24 April, p 24) does not
seem to be unique to Britain.
Wilson Dizard writes in his book
The Coming Information Age
about the US: "As an MIT study
put it several years ago:
communications technology is
flooding policy makers with
options they do not understand,
among which they must choose,
and which will have profound
effects on society."
What chances does the rest of
the society stand to understand the
impact o(IT on their lives, if two
(or even three) relatively small
"cultures" fail to communicate
with each other, especially when,
as Dizard writes, in the present age
of converging technologies and
greater social complexity, the
balance between economic
I THIN~, (VE
I..-OGAT',~ TH~ B o~
~roduct harmony become difficul
to maintain"?
This Dizard says, is why "we do
need a better understanding of the
issues raised in the Nora and Minc
report to the French government
form 1978, facing esser~tially the
same situation--a massive
technocractic drive, threatening to
go out of control unless its
potentially dehumanising effects
are understood and reined in".
Ivor Fodor
Darmstadt
West Germany
Tobacco-related disease
In Britain, only two external
factors have thus far been
identified as really major
killers--tobacco smoke, and the
(still incompletely characterised)
dietary, determinants of blood
lipids. Each of these is responsible
for oftbe order of 100 000 deaths
a year, out of our annual total of
600-odd thousand.
At a recent Ciba symposium,
where I was asked to lecture on the
control of tobacco-related disease, I
pointed out two main approaches
were possible--reduction of the
number of cigarettes consumed,
and reduction of the hazard per
cigarette--and that both were
important. Admittedly, the
evidence thus far available suggests
that the types of tar-level
reductions that have been
introduced in Britain during the
past quarter of a century appear to
produce substantial avoidance of
risk only for lung cancer: no
GRIMBLEDON DOWN
q
Bill Tidy

New Scientist 24 May 1984
substantial effect (in either
direction) on the.other main
slno,Vdng-relatk~d diseases has been
demonstrated. Therefore, although
further reductions in tar levels
should continue to be encouraged
(as long as this can be done in
prays that do not interfere with
ff~rts to reduce overall cigarette
consumption), we need to
encourase research on how to
design cigarettes that also produce
lower risks of heart disease and
chronic lung disease.
Your report of my talk (19
April) inadvertently attributed to
me certain views that I neither
expressed nor could consistently
hold• For example, while I
emphasised the importance of
continuing to encourage
reductions in tar level, the first
sentence of your report (under the
headline "Unhealthy verdict on
tow-tar brands") misleadingly
attributes to me the view that low-
tar brands could increase the
chance of dying from heart and
lung disease. Three paragraphs
later, it attributes to me exactly
the opposite "belief" for chronic
obstructive lung disease!
Elsewhere. although in fact
Englishmen have lung cancer rates
a hundred times larger at age 80
than at age 40. I am misquoted as
describing 35-44 year-olds as being
the group "most susceptible to
lung cancer".
Ricitard Pcto
Radcli~, Infirmary
O.~tbr3 " "
Parlous view
I dtd not say that "'particle
a~sicists have no wish to know
other branch of science", but
nat we have no wish to knock any
other branch ILetters. 10 May,
p 49). That, I am sure you will
agree, is a very different thing.
Imperial Colleee ol" Science
and
London
Leprosy
The article on leprosy by Debora
MacKenzie (3 May. p 30)
reiterates the current World
Health Organlsation (WHO) view
that the prevalence, but not the
incidence, of leprosy has declined
since the introduction of dapsone.
This view is held despite the huge
reductions in numbers of patients
reporting for treatment (the so-
called "case-detection rate"). The
argument
case-aetecuon ~oes not mean a
true reduction in new cases of the
disease/that is to say, the
incidence), but merely reflects a
declining bac "klog of old patients
over time.
This explanation will certainly
account for a reduction in the
treatment is first offered, but as a
decline continues over many years
it becomes increasingly
implausible that this merely
reflects a backlog effect. For
~mple, in Burma the case-
tcct~on rate fell from 5 per I000
1962 to 0.8 per 1000 in 1972,
and the rate of decline was as
great in the second half of that
period as in the first (Int. J.
Leprosy, vol 43, p 125). Further
evidence for the effectiveness of
dapsone in reducing the true
incidence of new cases of leprosy
comes from a comparison of
Uganda and New Guinea.
Sulphones were introduced to an
area of New Guinea only in late
1967, and the case-detection rate
remained at 6 per 1000 each year
from 1964 to 1969 (Med J.
Austral., vol 1, p 1258). In
contrast, the case-detection rate in
Uganda fell from 5.5 to 1.7 per
1000 in four years (in the control
group of the BCG trial), but
dapsone treatment was employed
throughout that period (Nature,
vol 254, p 168).
Finally, the map in the article
incorrectly attributes a prevalence
rate of more than 20 per 1000 to
the Northern Territory of
Australia, despite the publication
of the correct data in 1977 (Med.
J. Austral., vol 2, p 652), showing
a fall from 46 new cases in 1967
to just 6 in 1976.
C. L. Crawford
Chafing Cross Hospital Medical
School,
London
QED
In the issue of New Scientist for
10 May (p 3) you carry a note
"UN admits failure to halt
deserts". In the same issue (p 30)
there is an article b\ John Gribbin
entitled "The world's beaches are
vanishing". Surely the solution is
obvious!
Rtlth Newmark
Bishops Stortford
Random leapfrogs
There is another explanation for
the occurrence of "leapfrog"
patterns in the plumage of birds
(Monitor. 10 May, p 22)
If a species becomes broken up
into three fairly isolated
w~atever reason, in the ~lumage
of the central group would inhibit
breeding between it and either of
the other groups. The two outer
groups would be far apart and so
also unlikely to mate. This
situation could arise only if the
,.g, ou.p He along a line (which is
there were no ancient flight
corridors linking the outside pair
of sub-species.
If one of the outer populations
develops different plumage, then
two species would result (assuming
occasional breeding between the
two unchanged groups).
This interpretation differs from
J. V. Remsen's in predicting
leapfrog patterns in factors which
may affect mating behaviour such
as vocal dial.ects, but not in other
characteristics such as bone
structure. In plants only those
characteristics important to animal
pollinators, or which otherwise
affect pollination, could be
expected to show this pa~ern.
Whether the initial change were
random or adaptive could only be
decided in each case individually,
if at all
Paul Gailiunas
Gosfor~h,
Newcastle upon Tyne
Competition
Robert Brooks (Forum, 5 April,
p 45) advises "never cite your
enemies in the bibliography. The
danger here is that the editor may
select referees from your list of
references..."
In the Journal of the American
Medical Association (vol 218,
p 886). I indicated that it is
necessar7 to quote your
competitors. If you would have
people locate your publications
through Science Citation Index,
whenever innocent strangers look
up your enemies, they will be
certain to learn about your
publications. This is a new
variation on the uncertainty
principle. The closer you get to
ignoring your competition the
closer you come to oblivion. To
achiev~ a total state of oblivion
always use clever but ambiguous
tries in your papers, use a
pseudonym and publish in any
one of the numberous obscure
languages available.
Eugene Garfield
Institute for Scientific Information,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
I cannot let Trevor Kitson
(Letters, 3 May, p 50) have the I~
last word. Both he and Robert.
Brooks's (Forum, 5 April, p 45)
make the error of believing that
age brings quality. Simply dividing
the number ofphblicafio'ns by age
a person who, from age 25, "
publishes regularly some two
papers a year can expect his
coefficent to rise from 2/26 to
50/50, a 25-fold improvement.
Furthermore, it is accepted that
the £wst author actually carried out
most of the work, No. 2 kept
things running when No. 1 was on
holiday, No. 3 made the coffee,
and so on right down to the last
author who never bothered to read
the paper or, if he did, didn't
understand it. My revised
coefficent of publicatonmanship
(CA is therefore-
x 1
~ X
age--25 y
Where x is the number of
publications, and y is the position
~n order of names.
R. Lathe Edinburgh
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