Philip Morris
Philip Morris Usa Five Year Plan 910000 - 950000
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- Viceroy
- Virginia Slims
- Winston
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- ifp92e00
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PHILIP MORRIS USA
BUSINESS PLAN
1991-1995
TAB 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TAB 2 THE ENVIRONMENT ....................................................... 1
Industry Overview ........................................................................... 1
Industry Volume Trends
Pricing
Product Category Trends
Competitive Structure
- R.J. Reynolds
- Brown & Williamson
- Lorillard
- American
- Liggett
Market ............................................................................................
20
Wholesale Community
Trade Class Management
Marketing Mix
Co nsu me r ...................................................................................... 2
6
Age
Occupation
Education
Product ..........................................................................................
29
Society ...........................................................................................
30
Taxation
Marketing Restrictions
Smoking Restrictions
Discrimination in the Workplace
Environmental Tobacco Smoke
Pressure on Smokers
TAB 3 THE COMPANY PLAN ..................................................... 3 7
Mission Statement
Philip Morris USA Objectives
Philip Morris Performance Strategies
Macro Issues
PM-USA ......................................................................................... 45
Representation in Key Industry Segments
PM-USA's Role in the Corporation
Long-Term Energy Requirements
Philip Morris USA Departmental Issues/
Strategies/Action Plans ................................................................... 51
Operations
Marketing
Sales
Corporate Affairs
Employee Relations
Legal
Information Services
TAB 4 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS .............................................. 140
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Funds Flow Analysis
TAB 5 APPENDDC............................................................... A-1
Waterfall Charts
Trend Data

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PHILIP MORRIS USA
1991 1995
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
During the next five years, PM-USA plans to continue its profit growth, generating operating
income increases of 13.2% annually. Domestic cigarettes will contribute a cumulative $17.2 billion
to the corporate cash flow over the plan period. Market share will reach 49.6% in 1995, while
volume will grow at a compound annual rate of half a percent.
PM-USA's volume growth will occur despite a 2.7% compound annual decline in industry volume.
Industry volume will be negatively affected by increasing smoking restrictions, the decreasing
social acceptability of smoking and increasing excise taxes. Corporate Affairs will use direct
lobbying, the media, and industry allies to minimize state and local tax increases, promote
accommodation in public places and preserve the industry's freedom to advertise and promote
cigarettes to adult smokers.
Two federal excise tax increases have been legislated for the plan period, with a $2.00 per
thousand cigarettes increase in January 1991 and a second $2.00 per thousand increase in
January 1993. As a result of these increases, industry volume will decline faster in 1991 and 1993
-- 2.7% and 3.3% respectively -- than in the other years of the Plan when volume declines 2.5%.
PM-USA's volume will continue to grow modestly with growth declining to an increase of 0.1% in
the final year of the Plan. It is our objective to prevent any further increases in federal excise
taxes
during the plan period. The 1990-1994 PM-USA Plan assumed no federal excise tax increase.
Within this environment, PM-USA will widen its lead as the number one cigarette manufacturer.
PM-USA has scheduled up to 6 full margin line extensions during the plan period. These
offerings are expected to add incremental business by appealing to competitive smokers and
retaining PM-USA smokers as they age. They will enable PM-USA to increase its presence in
industry segments where we are underrepresented, such as menthol and ultra low tar, while
building on our leadership in growing demographic segments (25-44). Our brands' marketing mix
will continue to include image advertising and retail promotions. However, retail merchandising
and in-store promotions will steadily gain in importance, with consumer promotion accounting for
40% of the Company marketing budget in 1995, compared to 23% in 1990.
The 1991-1995 Plan includes broad enough coverage in each of the current price/value
categories for PM-USA to be aggressive. New price/value offerings will only be considered as a
defensive move. While PM-USA will continue to actively participate in the price/value category, it
will not fuel its growth, recognizing the market deterioration and the commodity-like status
price/value brings to the industry.
Additional manufacturing capacity will not be required to accommodate projected PM-USA volume
growth. However, PM-USA's current capacity of 313 billion units cannot accommodate both our
domestic volume and growing export volume. The total is forecasted to exceed installed capacity
by 43 billion units by 1995. Consequently, the Plan includes a capital appropriation of $589
million to expand the Cabarrus Manufacturing Center. The project, which would begin early in
1991, consists of expanding the Primary, Make/Pack building and plant infrastructure. Cabarrus'
capacity will rise from 78.9 billion in 1990 to 160 billion cigarettes per year in 1995, bringing
total
PM-USA capacity to the 408 billion unit level by the end of the plan period.
PM-USA entered the decade of the nineties with considerable momentum despite the erosion of
the industry. During the plan period, management will exploit PM-USA's major competitive
advantage of strong trademark recognition for Marlboro, Merit, B&H and Virginia Slims. Focused
line extensions, geographically targeted marketing, and trade class specific promotional programs
will be used to capitalize on our trademarks. With an established young adult smoker base, PM-
USA will hold smokers as they age. Recognized product quality, strong package sales, and
Marlboro full margin strength will continue to deliver competitive advantage over the next five
years.

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PHIUP MORRIS USA
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
In 1990, the U.S. cigarette industry achieved record revenues and operating income, totalling an
estimated $24 billion and $8.5 billion, respectively. Higher prices and operating efficiencies
continued to more than offset unfavorable mix changes and volume declines.
INDUSTRY VOLUME TRENDS
Industry volume of 521.8 billion in 1990 was down 0.3% versus 1989, continuing a downward
trend which began in 1981/1982. However, a two year comparison is more meaningful because
of RJR's and Lorillard's decision to "de-load" in 1989. Since 1988, Industry volume has declined
an average of 3.3% per year, exceeding the industry's decline over the past decade. Since
reaching Its peak of 626.5 billion units In 1981, U.S. cigarette consumption has declined at a
compound annual rate of 2.0%. Factors negatively influencing volume inciude the health
controversy, the declining social acceptability of smoking, more smoking restrictions, and rising
excise taxes and prices.
Over the next five years, we expect cigarette consumption to continue declining given the
Increasingly hostile smoking environment and the effect of two federal excise tax Increases.
There were no federal excise tax increases during the last five years. Sales of cigarettes in the
U.S. are projected to decrease an average of 2.7% per year between 1990 and 1995, reaching
455.5 billion in 1995. This is a slight acceleration of the trend of the last five years when
industry
volume declined 2.6% per year. Full margin brands will fuel this decline, decreasing an estimated
6.3% per year, while price/vaiue brands will help keep consumers in the marketplace.
INDUSTRY VOLUME TRENDS
1980
1982
-Total
1984
-Full Margin Price/Value
1986
1988
1990
1992
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL VOLUME GROWTH
(%)
3985-1990 1990-1995
Total Industry (2.8) (2.7)
Full Margin (5.2) (6.3)
PriceyNalue 18.3 8.5
1994
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PHILIP MORRIS USA
1991 - 1995
Price/Value
Price/value will continue to be the most dynamic segment in the tobacco industry, fueled by
aggressive full margin pricing, brand/packing proliferation and higher availability at retail.
PRICE/VALUE PROLIFERATION
# Brands # Packinas
1989 25 152
1990 30_ 182
1995 34 196
Over the next five years, price/value's share of the industry is expected to rise approximately 2.8
share points per year, from 19.2% in 1990 to 33.2% in 1995. Over the past five years, the
price/value category grew approximately 2.4 share points per year. Price/value volume is
expected to grow at an annual rate of 8.5%, reaching 151.2 billion units in 1995 compared to
100.4 billion in 1990. New competitive entries are likely to be introduced to meet the increasing
consumer preference for lower priced cigarettes.
MARKET SHARE OF PRICE/VALUE SUBSEGMENTS
I
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1981
1985
1990
1995 Difference
1990-95
Black & Whites 0.5 4.6 3.6 4.1 0.5
Branded Generics - 1.4 10.4 16.0 5.6
Value 25's/30's - 1.3 0.7 0.4 (0.3)
Price-off - - 1.0 1.4 0.4
Sub-generics : _ 2-5 11.3 7 $
Total 0.5 7.3 19.2 33.2 14.0
Assumptions
This industry forecast is based on the following assumptions:
The federal excise tax will rise $2.00/M in January 1991 to $10.00/M and again in January
1993 to $12.00/M, per the budget accord reached in November. There are no further
increases in federal excise taxes planned.
State excise taxes will rise approximately 10.0% per year, increasing from almost $0.24
per pack in 1990 to $0.38 per pack in 1995. This represents a slight increase in the trend of
the past five years when state excise taxes increased 8.7% annually. The state excise tax
increases are higher in the earlier years of the Plan as many states currently have large budget
deficits.
The industry remains relatively price inelastic due partially to the availability of lower priced
alternatives, such as Bristol, which had an average retail carton price (85mm) of $8.48 in 1990,
compared to $15.27 for a full margin brand. Elasticity is assumed to be -.37. This means
that for every 10% increase in price, industry volume will decline 3.7%, or approximately 19
billion units (based on 1990 volume).
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PHILIP MORRIS USA
1991-1995
Population trends, while favorable (+7.6 million smoking age people between 1990 and
1995), will not provide as much potential volume as in the past five years when the smoking
age population grew 10.6 million. Growth will occur mainly in older age categories where
smoking incidence has historically declined, partially offsetting the benefits of population
gains. The 35-54 age group will show the largest growth (+16.2%) and will comprise the
largest share of the population (21.8%). The over age 55 population will also grow (+4.1%).
These trends highlight the desirability of retaining smokers as they age.
ADULT POPULATION GROWTH BY AGE GROUP
1Sli4-1995
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Longer term, industry volume will be negatively affected by a decline in the number of
potential new smokers, adults under 25 are forecasted to decline 5.5% - while the 25-34
cohort will decline 5.9%. This trend is of particular concern to PM-USA because of our
historical strength among these cohorts.
Smoking incidence is forecasted to decline 2.6 share points to 26.5% in 1995. Average
daily consumption will also decline, although to a lesser extent, averaging 25.4 cigarettes
per day in 1995. As shown in the following chart, average daily consumption and smoking
incidence are expected to decline the most among 45-54 year olds.
Average Daily ConsumptionW
1990 1995 Difference
Under 25 23.3 22.9 (0.4)
25-34 25.3 24.0 (1.3)
35-44 27.5 25.3 (2.2)
45-54 27.8 25.4 (2.4)
55-64 27.9 26.4 (1.5)
65+ 2U 232 41J,1
Total 25.9 25.4 (0.5)
Incidence t%l
1990 199 5 Difference
31.2% 28.3% (2.9)
35.2 31.7 (3.5)
33.4 29.5 (3.9)
30.3 24.1 (6.2)
26.3 23.5 (2.8)
1&4 1.]_.fi ~34
29.1 26.5 (2.6)
(1) Roper consumption data has been adjusted to reflect industry volume.
Source: Roper (1990 Incidence) and PM-USA Market Research Demographic Model (1995)
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PHILIP MORRIS USA
1991-1995
PRICING
Pricing will continue to be a major contributor to PM-USA's profitability during the plan period.
PM-
USA is faced with the challenge of balancing operating income growth goals with the objective of
unit volume growth. It is critical that PM-USA's pricing strategy, particularly in an environment of
high taxation, does not accelerate the decline of industry volume or encourage consumer
switching from PM-USA's full margin products to less profitable price/vaiue brands.
PM-USA's pricing strategy for 1991 through 1995 inciudes the following actions:
Utilizing price increases to supplement volume increases and productivity gains to achieve
operating Income growth goals.
Structuring frequency and amount of price increases to minimize impact on PM-USA full
margin brands.
Reducing net retail price pressure on high margin segment of the business through price
increases:
- Reduce the gap between Bristol and Full Margin prices from 44% in 1990 to 32% In 1995.
- Reduce the gap between sub-generic and branded generic prices to less than $3.00 per
carton and maintain during plan period.
Maintaining retail price competitiveness using on-carton coupons for branded generic
products. Do not lead new discount levels.
Recognizing that there may be competitive entries introduced at lower price levels during the
plan period.
Manufacturer List Prices
The combination of manufacturers' price increases and rising state excise taxes during the 1980's
caused full margin cigarette prices to increase in excess of inflation. The graph below illustrates
the rate of growth for cigarette prices (excluding FET) versus the consumer price index for the
same period. Manufacturers' list prices increased a compound annual average of 10.9% from
1980 through 1990, while the Inflation rate of other goods and services as measured by the CPI
increased 4.5%.
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PHILJP MORRI8 USA
1991-1995
The rapid growth rate for full margin cigarette prices is the driving force behind the emergence and
growth of the price/value category. The widening retail price gap between the lowest priced
brands (such as Liggett's Pyramid) and full margin brands and the competitive activity it has
encouraged has further accelerated the growth of the category. PM-USA's large share of industry
full margin unit volume puts the company's profitability at risk if the price,kalue category
continues
to grow rapidly.
A new PM-USA pricing strategy is to lead upward pricing pressure in the low price categories,
while stabilizing full margin pricing. Our objective is to reduce the price gap between full margin
and discount brands. The Plan assumes that the industry practice of semi-annual price increases
will be maintained. Annual price increases on full margin brands are projected to be $5.00 in 1991
and 1992, rising to $6.00 in 1993, 1994 and 1995. PM-USA will start by taking an additional
$2.50 per thousand increase on branded generics and $3.00 per thousand increase on sub-
generics out of cycle in March 1991. In addition, annual price increases on branded generics and
sub-generics are projected to be $6.00 in 1991 and 1992, rising to $7.00 in 1993, 1994 and
1995. Pricing actions for FVB will be structured to ensure that the retail price of our black and
white/private label products is comparable to the lowest priced branded products in the industry.
PM-USA AVERAGE LIST PRICES
1991-1995
$ Per Thousand
100
80
60
40
20
57.00
_.... 47.60
0
Full Margin
Branded Generic Bristol
85MM
81.75
75.85
75.75
69.75
68.85
62.00 61.85
_,__ 53.60
32.85
1991 1992
Source: PM-USA Market Research
54.10
1995
1993
47.10
1994
Our goal is to reduce the retail price gap to the following levels by 1995:
ESTIMATED RETAIL CARTON PRICE DIFFERENTIAL
85m m
b
1990
Full Margin $15.27
1995
$24.94
Branded Generics $10.01 $18.93
vs. FM $5.26(34%) $6.01 (24%)
Bristol $8.48 $16.84
vs. FM $6.79 (44aYo) $8.10 (32%)
vs. BG $1.53(15°Y6) $2.09(11%)
38.85
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PHIUP MORRIS USA
1991-1995
The accelerated pricing of price/value products will improve the profitability of the category.
Projected net margins are forecasted to increase substantially over the plan period.
PROJECTED NET CONTRIBUTION PER THOUSAND
1990-95
Full Margin 1990 1991 1992 1993 ]99 4 1995 S ASz
Marlboro $29.63 $33.77 $37.66 $42.28 $47.74 $52.75 12.2%
B&H 26.63 30.18 33.82 38.87 46.03 51.05 13.9
Merit 28.58 32.81 34.42 41.75 44.91 51.80 12.6
V S 23.90 29.43 33.87 36.58 42.38 48.20 15.1
Parliament 24.49 30.57 34.42 39.19 44.35 49.38 15.0
Price/Value 1991-95
CAG
Cambridge $2.63 $9.19 $11.00 $13.77 $15.66 $18.60 19.3%
Alpine (1.23) 4.42 6.77 12.55 14.34 18.02 42.1
Bristol 1.25 10.88 10.60 13.60 16.61 19.80 16.1
Bucks (47.00) 6.06 5.58 10.06 13.87 16.83 29.1
The profitability of the price/value category is ultimately dependent on the level of marketing
support. Competitive marketing efforts including escalating coupon rates and values, increased
retail promotion and new brand introductions are slowing the increase in net margins for the
category. PM-USA must remain competitive in this category and minimize the possibility that
competitors will see their volume potential being greater than the risk to their profitability.
Competitors who are using full margin brand profits to finance price/value marketing efforts must
be pressured into defending their full margin brands or risk accelerated volume decline rates,
further impairing their profitability. PM-USA's strategy is to leverage full margin brands to
relieve
competitive pressure in the price/value category.
Pricing assumptions for the plan period create the possibility of the emergence of a fourth price
tier. As price/value margins increase, the opportunity to introduce a marginally profitable product
could become appealing to competitors, who are willing to postpone profitability in the hope of
gaining volume. PM-USA will defend against new entries of this nature by matching competitive
price efforts through couponing and other promotional efforts.
Although this pricing strategy enables PM-USA to meet projected income growth targets, it is
possible that other manufacturers will seek to accelerate pricing. While estimates of RJR's
forecasted profits indicate that cash flow is more than adequate to cover debt obligations under
current pricing assumptions, RJR's parent, KKR, may seek to improve operating income growth
performance to improve the market for its high yield debt and recent equity issues. In addition,
PM-USA's pricing strategy is forecasted to yield RJR a compound average operating income
growth rate of 5.8% (1990-1995), below the pre-KKR average growth rate of 11.9% (1983-1988).
Retail Pricing
PM-USA price increases over the plan period will increase retail cigarette prices at a higher rate
than both the consumer price index and disposable income per capita. In the current
recessionary economy, PM-USA must achieve its income goals without increasing prices to a level
that leads to the acceleration of industry volume decline.
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PHILIP MORRIS USA
1ti91 -1tifi5
RETAIL PRICE COMPOUND AVERAGE GROWTH
1990-1995
DIPC CPI Fuli Margin
Source: WEFAVPbIdJSA Merket Research-85MM Carton
Brand Generic
Bristol
The average retail carton and pack prices for full margin, branded generics and Bristol are
forecasted to increase annually an average of 10.3%, 13.6% and 14.7%, respectively. Excluding
1990, Bristol has a compound growth rate of 11.0%. This compares with a 5.0% increase for
general inflation and a 1.1% increase in disposable income. Average retail pack prices are
projected to near the $3.00 mark by 1995 for full margin.
ESTIMATED AVERAGE RETAIL PACK PRICES
Full Margin Branded Generic
Source: PM-USA Market Research-85MM
7
Bristol
