Tobacco Documents Online

= M M M i ~ M M = M M M M M = = M M W THE WALL STREET JOURNAL TUlSOAY. JANUARY t r9pf Cancer Risks f or T hee, but Not f or Me Qy JtaAY TAYLM In Oclober, you nsay recO,1he Journai Of (he NalloRa7 Cenoer IRaittula cawaed qutle a stir bypublkMnZ an eptr4tfib)o~1• cal study cuReabn=Iha1 wocnen wtu have abostlont an SDlb mat likely to deYelop breaat qrner than women whedo IIOL 7fhe right to-lile crowd pred)tlably tetaed upon Ihe study u one more rea3on Ilat abortion should be pletu-N causec canoer. "Not so last," t:ounlered epidemlokpiets: a/.5 tfsk raito (as eplderniol put Nl "is not stronr enough lo call lndoctd abortion a risk raetor fot breatl cancer." Thal starement by ICurenla Ca)k, de• rector ol analytlc epkerriotoQy for the AmerltaaCa.nCer Soclely, N nol aome P.C. Ittempl to proteei (he reputalion o/ abor tion: )t reAeels the eclr:Mlfkeonseneus on whal Is and is not serfit{icD)ly tirnlfkant when esarsifnlrrY small groups ol indlvidtu- eb for analytlc purposes. "f?pldemiolo~lcal sludlet 1n ptnenl are y robatsiy not abk. realbticafly. to Iderdity wiih any confidente any rtlative tliks lower than 13, " Dr. Calk noted. Since epi• dentfe'orsts aormalty take aerlovsly only risk f'actora o1 3 .0 or Sreater. lynn]tosen• bel of Ibe 8oaton UnlYersily 6tDool oi bledkine qTeed wilh most eeknl/sIt that ( he breasl (anoer eludy wae "far dom con- clusive, anrf it is difficuil !o ect how tie) will be Inlonlullvt lDI'he pub)k." So lhoce ot us who choou to hpve aboe• ttons u e eete Rom paternal regwlalbn for Ihe tlme befa=. Those o/ us whoehooae so have a c4grarette. however, area'1 so locky, 'the same risk ralio tAaW was so widely patils•paoAed by scientHlc as Ntiynfficenl and Incondttaive when W comes to Abortlon was deemed by the rery ume acfebtisls an lntolerable health Inenau when i1 oomes lo setafdhand smoke. Aclua•lty, Ihat'1 not quite trne The 1.3 risk fbctor for a sinitle tborllon wac clYritJlea nty V»ater 1 har< rhe really Irrd to detacl 1.19 rlsk n11a fer ln• fenthre, 40-ytar, dayIn•day-all pack'a• day expusure Iosecondttand smoke las fill• urod Oy the iPA). And lhae'r )wl the be=innlng. •the IiPA relsseod to rttulate ekNrosnal<netk qtklt etnanating ftom ptwre sources /al• kXtd by aome Ia Poea a cancti risk) be• cause, aooordtnY to the lilttncy, "the re• ktlonahip rfslls In the published reports have aldoer exceeded 3.0." SirAllarly, some studla} havw found that tlrinkfnj paaleurtsed mlfK tesefes In a 2.1 risk tac- tor lot I un= cancer. tio oAe, however, has 1(atlen arerhealed aborol Ihe evils o1 the death•dealirrt dairy indasiry isave, per• htps, foc (birnan McCarthy and Jeremy Rlfktn, but Ibal'r another story). So what rires? Perhaps the medita) cont~mrrn)ty Is slmply no less cynical than the poiM1tical oontnttrnfyy. Yale epidentiolo• g1s1 Al.an 1'einsleih related i. Toxtcoloyl' cAl PathokKy+ that ha receMly heard a yrornlnent eDldemfotorlst admil uhal Ikt SPA's aecondhand enloke tluly and eorrr• spondin=ptutlc c4•npiltn wtre "rotten cci• ence, but 11's a worthy caute, K will help us to gel rld o/ ciprettes aM to become a smokedne aclety." Or )erhaprll Is sImple Mal honeat sub• consclout lias. A study by Ceorge Carlo el At., puDlisy!d in Irtt/owrnal Rfsk Anslytia, suiveyed 1,461 eptdemloPoqtsts, Ioxicolo• rtsts, phytklans end penetal seienlists on various health tfsia, tncludtn; secoAdt<and smoke. Hill of those surveyed werr read e vlinelte dttapted lo retleti uiairWream scienltlrc Ihin,krnt tn tewndriand smoke: 10% of Ihose indlr,duats thought it e teri• eas environrnen131 health hetard and eblk (ell Ihal pubUc health inierventloe was in• deed necessary, Yhe ettond group surveyed was read eht uelu vi=neUe 1W, instead of bein= toU Iiklt} Iht feele rNated 10 seandhand srooke. It was told IM discwsiDn per Ialned to "eubstanee x." Only 33% of Itwa/ scientiqe and p,lyslctens Ihotighe Ihal subetaact tin reallly, secondhand smoke) a terioue health Ilawrd, and only 41% fell Ihat "suEclance x'• Irauonled public health rerulatton. An antismakln: actirist mirht trrae, however, that ehe lack of oclion against one particular set of risks does not juatily lack nr action epintl olher s. Peraape the torernmtn7 should rep)ate pasteoeiztri nailk, ttnil7 exposure to tlectrk helds, and ban abortion as a casucer rist. 1et what's missing here Is any apprecAallon or Ithe dl/ ftcui(y o/ bsuminr thal rorrelehon neces airily eaualc ausullon or any understand in= ot t latisl lal prolabilities Iror exaasplt. we knew that dwf and ea• ercise are the meel bmporlaM conletbirln= /actors for can0er. And we also krrow Ihai tmokere on average get /ar kss nutrWon and exercise than nonsmokers Are non• iniokiny wlrts o/ imokera (the popvlattorr subgmrp examined by EPA Io crrirt al Ihelr LH rlck ratio fer ueondband smoke) rnore or /ep IiNe)y Oo shace thel r h(nbands' IikstyFes and Jtetary palterns? Ra;ntr RyKndtr of the IlniversHy of Gclhtnburr wrote recently in Ihe Areh)res of Bmrtrsnmental tkalih titlat "social Iaclort were three 4o tour limes more importaht Irisk farlorc) fhan M. lenvir.rtmental tobacco arnotel expo sure." He noted tthal "there k Increasing eriderice thal Melary habits an related 10 several kinds of respUalory dneast. Irr ctadint lung canter and r,hronk broneJn ris;" and Ihose dietary habils of smoklnr mttr are often shoreA by their roncmok• lnY apouses. Dr. Rylander asked; "Could It be that we are cor,wniltln` a(rrod3 mea(a1 elrOr Oy placMc f3TS in the caie• 6ery of a uusal6ve /actor when In reality we raay be eludyin= a co•(ounder?" - Ccrrelalfon atmply does not etpeal caw satton, no matter how ImisressFre (he cle lut1a. Cantker anqidemiolokicat siudy pulilst+ed in Hotland Ihal/ornd that keep Ing birds corrrkles with a srvenfold In crrase In the rkk ul henp canur-. car• relatlon thrte tlmes mort eiynifrcant ttran ehot of eerondhand srnokt. Simgarty, aat• thensicl Brrce Mnes e/ tl)* Uuirerslly of CalilorrMa al ®etkeley it fond or showink his qudrnls a traph wrth ta•n Imrt rep resenting deta lrom 1959 to Ihe present. The Iwo hnea aknest cornptetely match. The students Invariably say yes. the two selt ot dDla must be rrtattd. Yet one lint rtptesenit the number oi enal4s(; sttrkt 4n Germany: Itro olhet, ihr number of INre chrldlfi9As. Ard then Ihere is the messy problem (ter epldeneioiotlsls) ol shcer randoxt• ness. f/ one tNps a cola sd ttnxs, rt't ua likely Ihtsl the sttulls wyi be evenly 4411 between hel and Inds. If JelRrson shows up on tcp ol Ike nmc/N 1!'i atost et• len lhass does MoMretllo, fhfs Itlls eS norNft. Now tvnsttler Ihal mort than half nl the epidtmkolofical studies on sccorkd- hand slnoke itacluded 40 or /ester rubFects, and seldorn dtd rhk ralios ddler mWch hota the above eanmple. Soau stediw, in facl, showed netatrve oourlaloons-•Ihet being exirostd to seoondhand unoke actll aQy reduces the risk of tuert cancer. James Lt Panu warned In l.ondon's Sus+day 7elciraph a few years back tha% t.re cnwld reach a si(uarton where AeOrlh aciwrses. assag IuDious scientrfic evr dente, w(Il be in a position lo blacknail us tato behaving IAe ray they Ihtnk we should. tt is nol an altrachre prospecf " tYell. Dr. Ranu, the futurr is nl Hr. 9bytor is dfreebr o/ rretarr.t rrtou/u s/edtp or ehtGlolo oulfrwtr ho ntrJhlhQron. 5+3CORMClu