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**** PRaFS note for HREIF 11i Feb 1993 07:36: Page 1i of From: TBORFT:T,1':--VUSO'212A Date and'itime: 02/10['93' 15:35:18 To: HREIF --VCH0021A Helmut Reif From: Thomas Borelli' Subject: Status on planned conferences I support the concepts of both conferences. Linking ETS to broader issues of sociology and' jiunk science is alwag of reaching new audiences wi'thiour messages Also, our positionion ETS becomes more credible when we cite other examples of bad science as opposed to just f©cusing on ETS. We might want to invite policy makers to participate in the meetings and invite them to attend as well. There:are a number of critics of'bad!science here in the US that could address numerous examples if you thought it would be appropriate. Regards, Tom *** Forwarding, note~ from H!REIiF --VCH0021A 27.01.93 10:38' *** To: TBORETLI--VUS02'12A Thomas Borelli From: Helmut Reif' To: Tom BORELLI Subject: Status on planned conferences Dear Tom, We were not sure about your new FAX number,,therefore Ii send you my status report by PROFS whi'lee checking the best FAX number. Feel free to share with me any ideas about the conferences mentionedL Best regards, Hellmut Reif FTR / SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CH - 2003 NEUCHATEL,/ SWITZERLAND INTER-OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To: Distribution list Date:Jan. 27, 1I9!93 From: Helmut Reif' Cmpies: Subjiect: Organisation of dedicated conferences ini1993 S'tatus.report on preparation of conferences 1. "TOLERANCE" The basi~c idea was to:have a competent forum discussing the hi'ddlen mechanisms of suppression and force which are used in our days to ensure that aicertain prescribed lifestyle is followed. In order tolprepare such a conference, Preliiminarq contacts have been madle to Prof. Dr. Peter Atteslander of the University of Augsburg, Germany (Institute of Sociology and Empirical Social Research). To give this conference a more than local iimpact Prof. Atteslander proposed to;hold it at the reputed. Swiss Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute (CH-81603 Rueschlikon/'Zuerich) which specializes in economical and social studies on a high level. Some possible dates have been given by the Institute for autumn 1993 (September and October), however, Prof. Atteslander is of the opinion that the preparati'on time would be too short to get first class lecturers. He also fears.that his own workload in the:upcoming months would not allow him to prepare the conference thoroughly. Stressing now our internal point of view, I would like to mention the folllow3ng facts:!

**** PR(DFS note for Ha2E1iF 11 Feb 19'93' 07:36 Page 2' of 4 1.) There are a lot of other conferences planned for the year 1993 which could mean that the "conference on tolerance"'would possibly not havee the impact it deserves. 2'.) A decisiJon of the Company on a high level to fully embark on sociology and social science ("soft sciience") is stilil pending and it would be preferablle to have this meeting on tolerance as part of an integrali package. Taking,i'nto account these twolreasons Id would like to have your opinion on a possi.bPe decision to postpone the meeting,to 1994 wi'th the advantage that a more thorough planning,could be made. Pending your decision I wouldithen try to get some new meeting,dates from the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute and keep in touch with Prof. Atteslander. 2'. "JUNK SCIENCE" This working title should represent a workshop on misuse of statistics in epidemiology. This idea surfaced with a view to the ever growing number of'scientifiic publications which are either based on flawed data and/or assumptions or work on inferences which cannot be drawnlin the strict logical sense. On top of this, reports of that type just described are widely (ab)used to pnsh poli'ticall goals. A workshop should1show the limits for conclusions to be drawn from epidiemiological' dsta. Contacts have been establiished with Prof. Dr. Berthold Schneider, Medical University at Hannover, Iinstitute of Biometrics, who put together the, following proposal: Workshop Title: MISUSE OF'STATISTICS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY Possible dates: July 13!-15, Sept. 7-9, Oct. 5-7„ 1993 Venue: Medical Ufiiversity, Hannover, lecture halll Q Duration: One and a half day at maximum Accommodation: New hotel! ca. 500 m from the campus, two other hotels ready in spring 1993. Lunch: Cafeteria (Mensa) on the campus. Topics and!possible speakers:: The following topics represent a blending of ideas of Prof. Schneider with a thorough clipck of the lecturer's special fields, as far as known to,Prof. Schneider. lFe knows most of them personally and is convinced that they would agrrr to participate. However, he will only contact them once a general agreement from our side has been foundl.. a. ) Concepts and Lim iits of Statistical Inference. B'.. Schneider, Medizinische HochschuleniHannover,, Institute f3r BiometrilP, Konstanty-8utschow-Strasse 8, D-30I001Hannover 61. b.) Statistical Pitfalls in Epidemiology. J. Berger, Universitmtskrankenhaus Eppendorf, Abt. Mathematik und DV in der Medizin, Martinistrasse 52, D-2000 Hamburg,2'0. c.) Misuse of Randomization and Error Probabilities. P. Urbach, The London School of Economics & Political Sci~ence, Hbughton Street, London WC2A 2AE, U.K. dl.):Errors in Epidemiological Studiies,.. P. N. Lee, P.N.Lee Statistics and Computing,Ltd., Hamilton house, 17 Cedar Road, Sutton, Surrey SM2'5DA, U.K. e.) Is Biometrics A Science 7. A. Neiss, Universitot Innsbruck, Institut f3r Biiostatistik und Dokumentation, Anichstrasse 35A, A-6020 Innsbruck.

**** PROFS note for HREIiF 11 Feb 19!93 07:36 Page 3 of 4 Possible extension in speakers: E. Greiser, Bremer Institut fuer Praeventionsforschung und Sozialmedizin (BIPS), Gnienenstra;sse 120, D-28'00 Bremen. Prof. Greiser i's a practical epidemiollog,ist and has worked extensively in the field of diet,,lifestylie, and!diseases linked to it.. He could add to the workshop his experience of how results could be misunderstood in the public at large. P. Attes1an&,r, Uni~versito't Augsburg,, Lehrstuhl fuer Soziollogie,, Memminger Str.asse 14, D-8!900 Augsburg. He has published numerous papers on the risk invol!vedlwith risk factors, the fundamentalism in the public hesT'th sector, and the one-eyed epidemiology. A. Flew, retired professor from Reading,University, U.K., a well-known and very conservative phiilosopher of science. Defender of the Popperian philosophy (one negative proof of a theory is worth more than thousands of positive affi~rmati'ons). TECHNICAILI'TT ESI. a.) It was my understanding that the costs of suchia conference wouldlbe shared! by different CA entities. If we think of a"triangle of regions" (T. Borelli, M. Wi.nnokur for PMI/CA, EEMA, EEC), then the costs for each could be estiimated around'CHF 17.000 at most. COST ESTIMAT'riON Lecture hail„ 1 - 2 days, overhead costs, etc .................CHF 5.000'- Travel expenses and accommodation for lecturers, 7 x CHF 3.00.0................................................. CHF 21.000'- Consultancy fees for lecturers, 7 x 2 days @ CHF 1.000........................................ CHF 14.00.0'- Diinner i.nvi.tatiJon. .............................................CHF 10.000'- Grandltotal! ................................................... CHF 50.000.'- b.) Prof. Schneiider agreed to establish a special account where the necessary sums could be transferred as funds to the institute. He will' act ass the maiin orgnniser and contact the speakers. c.) The id+^n came upito use the workshop as aidiscussion forum for a very striking example of'flawed science, namely the:recent EPA report. On the upsi'diei of this is the uni,que occasioni to get real expertise and professional input. On the downside might be the obvious proximity of this conference to the InKhistry. Please share with me your thoughts about this. d.) I would very much appreciate to have your answer until 15.Feb.19'91 as'arrangempnts have to be made with the University and the lecturers. Please answer the following questions: Do you agree in principal to such a conference ? YES / NO Do those of you who are mentioned agree to share the costs Involved 7' YES / NO Do you agree that the EPA report be used as an example during,this conference ? YES / NO What are yomr possible inputs for the program 7 Which date is the most preferable for you ?. **A MA

**** PR.OFS note for HREIF 11 Feb 1993 0Z:36 Page 4 of 4 IDistributionillist: S&T: R. Pages CSA :, C. Purcell PMI: M. Winokur A. Okoni'ewskii EEMA: S. Carlson M. Nsis FMCS: D. Greenberg C. van Maerestetten P. Mnglione G. Wirz CB: C. l.ister J'. Green EEC: T. Andrade PMMC:, T. Borel'li cc: GWIR2' --VCH0021A C. Wirz AOK'ONIEW--V(DS021'.2A Anne Okoniewski. GWIR7,' --VCH0021A G. Wirz AOK'ONIEW--V(DS0212A Anne Okoniewski.