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Privileg©d and Gonfidintial February 2, 1'993'. Memotandum to i Dr. Reif & Tolerance and 7unk Scicncx Helxnut,. .This is a response to your memorandum regarding the proposed conferences. Let me address each of the, issues ~ you, raised i in tutnl As a generaI mattcr I agree with yourr conclusions, but I have albo included some suggestions. 1. The timing of any tollerance canferencx seems to me uitimately a, question of PM's own~ priorities. I believe that a meetiag, couldi be held in 1993, but I also recognize that it might be easier if there were more time. If the corporate affairs people are anxious that a meeting be held this year, as some of them : may well be, I would' of course say that we should all do our best to maloe it possible. If they do not feel strongly about it, I would nacommend the spring of 1!994. I agneed that tol6ranae and soft science (sociology, etc,) could be lunkadi to prowide an integrated package of meetings, but I also think that they are ultunately, ddifferent matters and would not myself delay one simply to f2t thc other. As noted' above, 1 the issue is really one of what PM wants, and when. 2'. I' think that a meeting regarding the misuae of stati'stics would be desirable, and Schneider is of'course a good name for the purpose. My concern about hi's proposal is that it might be too serious a meeting for corporate affairs purposes. Schneider himself is not an exciting speaker or writer, and mon of the others he names are not either. I am glad that you and he likad' the suggestion of'Flew„ and he would be likely to add some excitement, but somcone like McCormack from Dublin could also help. I do not mean by this that the meeting ~ should be fluffy, but the goal is to reach an audience of serious regulators, jouttoaiists,, a., an.d! I am not convinced that Schneider will be sensitive to that, or indeod will ewen1 understand the purpose. I therefare think that the speakers list should be carefully reviewed, and thatit should not be focused so muchi upon Sc.iineider'ss friends and colleagues. This is not a criticism of him or thr.m, , but simply a result, of our goa1+s.

Would such a meeting carry a PM, attribution? I was not catain what you enviiRinned. >4reSumably attribution is essential in some form, and that ought'to be made clear to Schneider. In the past, he has sometimes seemed to me rather nervous about such matters. The addition o?'otber spottsors would be an important help, if the meeting is to be accWAble t,o, him and also rcgardad by others as a genuine sdentitlc ewent: Fooids, pLasti+cs, chemicals, and peckrigings wvuld be nuturid crandidatim. Adding them,, and thus their concerns, would itbelf'broaden the focua of the mioetinR, which I'thinlc is impprtsnt. Thc Toaicology Forum might lend its name, but only at a sigmf' acant price. I suggest that aift-analysis be made a specific and important topic of discussiony perhaps using 14tcCo:mack as the spealcar: It is, aftierc all, th.k.y to nmost of our concerns. Consistent with the seaneh~ for other sponsors, diet and lifestyle should also be a substantial part of the disGussion. Coffee, fat, sugar, and cholesterol might all offer, ssome examplcs. In my view; 1£PA could certainly be another focus of~ discusRion, hut it should not be a, eentral prcocxupatioat. No one would take seriously a meeting even partly sponsored ' by PM ih which EPA was more than one eatample among several. In any ewant, our points wn be made more cfi'xdvely and i persuasiiWely if EPA i's discussed within a larger context. It should be one of several exiunples (and centalnly not the ,nost prominent) of'larger and more general concerns about the use and misuse of statistics. 3. Tsming is again a matter of Plui"s priozaties: It would! obviously be easier if the meeting were later in the year, but I believe that it could be dons as early as July. On, balance, however, I would myself opt for later. 4. One point seems particularly important. Such a meeting would I maloe little sense unless the papers (or some of them) were promptly published in some respectable manner. Without publication few would know of the meeang's ezistence, and its impaet would ttknafore be small and ttansiwry. A special journal issue would be valuable, or a small ,nonogr~apb. This would inc-rassa the cx»ts siWk;anQy, but tln!addilnonal expenditures would be well worthwhile. Karger would do it, but penliaps only at a, cost of'as much as 525,AW to $50,001 Such has at least bean our past experience with them. A monograph with the imprint of the medical and statistical faculties of'Iianover Univcraity would be poflcntially, quita uscfui. S'. My own guess is that the projected ooot of W 50,000 would prove substantially too low. Including publication and editing for publication, at, least t+wice that figure is more lilcely. I , note, for eaample, that the proj ection includes nothing , for the preparation of papers. Tlhis sometimes works, but most speakers will expect at lea.ct something for their preparatory time. Several ttiousand dollars per speaker is common, . unless they already have prepared papers. And ! what about announcements and i mailings? And! Schneidat's time in, organiztag it2 He would surely not work for fiee. And wouldn't there be sessions before the conference of an cuWanizuzg oununilttd? ALnyy serious scie.ntifc mecting cx.n4inly has iheml And shouldn't the papers (or at least some of tttem) be reviewad before dalivery? ' Cartainly any, references tb EPA shoutd be carcfully examined in advance. I don't suggest control or censorship, but surely we ~i ~ T Olin

_3_ should have at least an opportunity to be heard beforr any, paper directly related to us iss finalized. This wiU again iacrnase 1 the aosts. In essence, the projected cost would I a9mply buy, you a small, unnotiadi worltshop largety of Schnddbr's friends - whichl would' save money but would! aetually be wastellil; bxause little would have been aacoraplisbed. Such a meeting would be sensible only if it were neally only a, PR exent, whiieh i hardly sounds like Schneider. In maYing. his projcction, I for he has assumed that most costs would be borne by rez;i,atration fees, but that is unlilcely for a small and quick mar,ting. 6i I hopc some of thf s will help. I am of oourse happy' to play whatever role (or, nnone) you thim3t sensible. I have not sent this to your other addressees, 1 other than Clare. I leave to you whether any, of them should see it. Charlas Lister i cc: Irls. Purcell Mrs. Green