Philip Morris
the Question of Thresholds for Radiation and Chemical Carcinogenesis
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Cancer Investigation, 7(3), 267-276 (1989)
CONTROVERSIES IN BASIC SCIENCE
The Question of Thresholds for Radiation
and Chemical Carcinogenesis
Arthur C. Upton
Institute of Environmental Medicine
New York University Medical Center
New York, New York
INTRODUCTION
Selection of the dose-incidence model that is appro-
priate for predicting the risks of cancer from low-level
exposure to a given carcinogen is among the most con-
tentious issues in public health. Although the existence
of a threshold in the dose-effect relationship is well
documented for many, if not most, types of toxicological
effects, the exi stence of a threshold for the mutagenic
effects of ionizing radiation (1-3) and of certain chemicals
(4,5) has been questioned since the middle of the century.
More recently, the existence of a threshold for car-
cinogenic effecm also has been seriously questioned, since
carcinogenesis may, likewise, be envisionei to result from
effects on indivichlat cells rather than groups of cells (6-8).
Because in principle it is not possible to prove or
disprove the existence of a threshold for carcinogenesis,
the argument for or against the threshold hypothesis must
be based on theoretical as well as empirical evidence (7,8).
Some of the cogent data and concepts are surveyed in the
following.
Copyright © 1989 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.
267
BIOLOGY OF CARCINOGENESIS
Monoclonal, Multicausal, Multistage
Nature of Cancer
The evidence that cancer usually originates from a
single transformed cell (9-11) implies that appropriate
damage to one cell alone may suffice to increase the prob-
ability of neoplasia in a suitably susceptible individual.
A single alteration, however, apparently does not suffice
to convert a normal cell into a cancer cell. On the con-
trary, cancer typically appears to evolve through a suc-
cession of stages; for example, initiation, promotion, and
progression (12,13).
The mechanism of initiation remains to be established,
but some type of mutational change is implicated by
evidence that: (i) the initiating event is relatively prompt
and irreversible (14,15); (ii) most ultimate carcinogens
are mutagens (16); (iii) the frequency of cell transforma-
tion that is induced by a given carcinogen is usually max-
imal if exposure to the agent occurs just before or during
2025545949

L
268
DNA synthesis (17); (iv) the carcinogenic potency of an
initiating chemical is generally correlated with the extent
to which it binds covalently to DNA and with the nature
of the resulting DNA adducts; and (v) DNA to which a
chemical carcincgen is bound can serve as a template for
DNA replication (18) which, along with subsequent cell
division, is necessary to "fix" the potential for neoplastic
change (19); (vi) susceptibility to cancer is increased in
persons who are deficient in their capacity to repair DNA
damage (20). Whatever the nature of the mutational
change may be, it results in a frequency of initiation that
is orders of magnitude higher than the rate of mutations
at any given genf: locus (21,22), implying that multiple
oncogenic sites, damage to the genome at sites unlikely
to be repaired (e.;;., tandem repeats), or genetic damage
other than point mutations are likely to be involved (14).
The specific genes that are affected may be presumed
to include antioncogenes as well as oncogenes (Table 1).
Initiation can thus be envisioned to result either from the
homozygous inactivation or deletion of an antioncogene,
or from the aberrant activation of an otherwise normal
proto-oncogene, through aneuploidy, chromosomal re-
arrangement, or point mutation. For neoplastic transfor-
mation, as opposed to initiation, the activation of a single
oncogene alone appears to be insufficient (13).
Although initiation can result from only one exposure
to an appropriate: initiating agent, tumor promotion
typically requires repeated and sustained exposures to an
appropriate promoting agent, although low doses of the
agent may suffice. In two-stage mouse skin carcinogene-
sis, for example, nautomolar concentrations of 12-O-tetra-
decanoyl phorbol-13-acetate (TPA) are sufficient to
Table 1
Comparative Properties of Oncogenes and Antioncogenes
Oncogenes
Gene active
Specific translocations
Translocations not
hereditary
Dominant
Tissue specificity may be
broad
Antioncogenes
Gene inactive
Deletions or invisible
mutations
Mutations hereditary and
nonhereditary
Recessive
Considerable tissue specificity
Especially leukemias ,and
lymphomas
Source: From Ref. 20.
Solid tumors (e.g., Wilm's,
retinoblastoma)
Upton
promote the effects of radiation or chemical initiators,
causing concomitant stimulation of: (i) macromolecular
synthesis; (ii) hyperplasia; (iii) polyamine synthesis; (iv)
prostaglandin synthesis; (v) protease production; (vi)
alterations of certain cell membrane enzymes and glyco-
proteins; (vii) induction of sister-chromatid exchanges;
(viii) altered differentiation; and (ix) modified responses
to various growth-controlling factors (23). Whether any
one of these changes is critical for tumor promotion,
however, is not clear. Traditionally, TPA and other
tumor-promoting agents have been considered to act
predominantly through epigenetic mechanisms (24,25),
but recent observations indicate that some of these agents
can damage DNA indirectly (26-29) implying that such
genotoxic effects also may be involved in promotion.
Tumor progression, the process through which suc-
cessive generations of neoplastic cells give rise to increas-
ingly autonomous clonal derivatives (30), has been at-
tributed at least in part to mutations and chromosome aber-
rations (15). The process can be accelerated, however,
by selection pressures that favor the outgrowth of pro-
liferative subpopulations, including repeated exposure to
growth-stimulating agents and carcinogens (15,30).
I
EMPIRICAL DOSE-INCIDENCE
RELATIONSHIPS FOR CARCINOGENSIS
Although hundreds of chemicals have been found to be
oncogenic in laboratory animals, less than three dozen
have been observed to be capable of inducing cancer in
humans (31). With few exceptions, moreover, the relevant
data are not sufficient to characterize the dose-incidence
relationship except in a semiquantitative way (8).
With ionizing radiation, for which the dosimetry is less
complicated by pharmacokinetic variables than is the
dosimetry for most chemicals, dose-incidence data are
available over a relatively wide range of radiation doses
(32,33). At best, however, the data do not suffice to define
the dose-incidence relationship in the low-dose domain.
Assessment of the carcinogenic risks associated with low-
level irradiation must thus depend on extrapolation from
observations at higher levels of exposure, based on
assumptions about the relevant dose-incidence relation-
ships and mechanisms of carcinogenesis.
The extrapolation models that are used for estimating
the carcinogenic risks of low-level irradiation generally
assume a linear nonthreshold relationship between risk
and dose in the low-dose domain, although the data do
not exclude a threshold (8,33,34). Among the lines of
epidemiological evidence that are consistent with a

Thresholds for Radiation and Chemical Carcinogenesis
nonthrehsold relationship are: (i) a 25-50% excess of
leukemia in c;hildren exposed to diagnostic x-rays in utero,
in whom the radiation dose is estimated to have averaged
less than 50 mGy (35,36); (ii) an excess of thyroid tumors
in persons who received therapeutic irradiation of the scalp
in childhood for tinea capitis, in whom the dose to the
thyroid gland is estimated to have averaged no more than
60-80 mGy ;37,38); (iii) a dose-dependent excess of
breast cancer, of essentially the same magnitude for a
given dose, in: (a) women exposed to A bomb radiation,
(b) women given therapeutic irradiation of the breast for
postpartum mastitis, (c) women who received multiple
fluoroscopic examinations of the chest during the treat-
ment of pulmonary tuberculosis with artificial pneumo-
thorax, and (d) women exposed to external gamma radia-
tion in the painting of luminous clock and instrument dials
(33,39); and (iv) a dose-dependent excess of leukemia in
A bomb survivors, which is evident at doses below 300
mGy (33,34). [n each of the above populations, the dose-
incidence data in low-to-intermediate dose range are com-
patible with a linear nonthreshold relationship for the
neoplasms in question. Comparable data, moreover, are
available for certain radiation-induced neoplasms in
laboratory animals (8,32,40,41). As concerns the car-
cinogenic effects of chemicals, quantitative dose-inci-
dence data for humans are extremely limited, with few
exceptions. A iloteworthy exception is cigarette smoke,
the major cause of lung cancer. In cigarette smokers, the
incidence of lung cancer increases as a function of the
number of cigarettes smoked per day raised approximately
to a power of 1.8 (42). Furthermore, the absence of any
clear indication of a threshold in the dose-incidence curve
soo
ANNUAL 400
ENCIDENCE
sta,auai:.d
fer ,se
t'ER 100000 300
MEN
200
too
t9 20 30 40
DoSE RArE tcila,atta Wnok.dp.reayl
Figure 1. Annual in:idence of lung cancer in regular cigarette smokers,
in relation to the number of cigarettes smoked per day. (From Ref. 61.)
269
100f-
ffW
C
tii =
z
W
>
~
p40
~ 20
T
T
1
T
1 2 3 4 5
LENGTH OF EXPOSURE (yrs)
Figure 2. Cumulative incidence of cancer of the urinary bladder in
78 distillers of /3-naphthylamine and benzidine. (From ReF. 8, based
on data from Ref. 62.)
(Fig. 1) is consistent with epidemiological data implying
that the risk of lung cancer can be increased even in
nonsmokers by passive exposure to cigarette smoke over
prolonged periods (43).
Other populations for which the dose-incidence data
are compatible with a nonthreshold type of response in-
clude groups of chemists who were employed as distillers
of 2-naphthylamine. In one such group, the cumulative
incidence of cancer of the urinary bladder was observed
to increase with the duration of occupational exposure,
approaching 100% in workers who were exposed for five
years or longer (Fig. 2).
In asbestos workers, likewise, the rates of lung cancer
and mesothelioma appear to increase linearly with the in-
tensity and duration of exposure (44). Furthermore, in
asbestos workers who smoke cigarettes, the combined car-
cinogenic effects of asbestos and cigarette smoke appear
to be multiplicative rather than merely additive (Table 2),
implying that the two agents exert their effects through
complementary rather than similar mechanisms.
With respect to the mechanism of cigarette smoke-
induced carcinogenesis, it is noteworthy that the excess
of lung cancer in ex-smokers stops rising relatively
promptly after cessation of smoking (45), suggesting that
cigarette smoke affects primarily late stages of car-
cinogenesis. The carcinogenic effects of cigarettes thus
stand in contrast to those of radiation (33) and asbestos
(46), which continue to become manifest for decades after
exposure.

270
Upton
Table 2
Age-Standardized Lung Cancer Death Rates as Affected by Cigarette Smok-ing, Occupational Erposure to
Asbestos Dust, or Botha
Exposure to asbestos History of cigarette smoking Death rate Mortality difference Mortality ratio
No No 11.3 0.0 1.00
Yes No 58.4 +47.1 5.17
No Yes 122.6 + 111.3 10.85
Yes Yes 601.6 +590.3 53.24
aAge-standardizz.d lung cancer death rates are rates per 100.000 man-years standardized for age on
the distribution of the man-years of all the
asbestos workers. Number of lung cancer deaths based on death certificate information.
Source: From Ref. 59.
Because of the multicausal, multistage nature of carcin-
ogenesis and the fact that the mechanism of carcinogenesis
is not the same for all cancers and all agents, some diver-
sity of dose-incidence relationships is to be expected. The
neoplasms that a;re induced by a given chemical in dif-
ferent tissues or in animals of different species also may
vary in dose-incidence relationships because of pharmaco-
genetic and pharmacokinetic differences affecting the
dosage of carcinogen to different target cells (47). The
observed age- md tissue-dependent variations in dose-
incidence relationhips among radiation-induced neoplasms
are largely unexplained as yet (41), but differences in cell
proliferation kinetics and homeostatic ability (including
capacity to repair DNA damage) may constitute poten-
tial sources of such variation (20).
To explore the dose-incidence curve for carcinogenesis
at low doses, a number of large-scale experiments have
been carried out vtith laboratory animals. In the largest
of these to date, the incidence of hepatomas in mice was
observed to increase with the concentration of 2-AAF in
the diet even at the lowest dose level tested (Fig. 3),
whereas the dose-incidence curve for tumors of the
urinary bladder was quasithresholded (Fig. 3). This con-
trast in dose-incidence curves may have resulted from dif-
ferences between thie liver and the bladder in the metabol-
ism of 2-AAF among other explanations.
Because a given carcinogen may influence the probabil-
ity of neoplasia through more than one type of effect, at
least at high dose levels, its dose-incidence curve can
reflect differing combinations of initiating effects, pro-
moting effects, and anticarcinogenic effects, depending
on the dose and other circumstances. The combined effects
of multiple agents may, likewise, be additive, synergistic,
or antagonistic, depending on the agents in question and
the conditions of exposure. At low to moderate dose
levels, the effects of a complete carcinogen can general-
ly be accentuated by appropriate tumor-promoting stimuli,
which unmask initiating effects that would otherwise re-
main unexpressed (Fig. 4). It is noteworthy, moreover,
that under conditions in which initiating effects are pro-
moted to full expression they often increase as a linear
nonthreshold function of the dose of the initiating agent
(Fig. 4). Furthermore, whereas the carcinogenic effec-
tiveness per unit dose of x-rays and gamma rays tends to
100r-
75 ~ Liver
I / 1
~ /
°.~
~50
.E Bladder
25 - /
/
/
0
i
®0 50 100 150
Concentration of 2-AAF
in the Diet (ppm) ,
Figure 3. Cumulative incidence of tumors of the Gver and of the urinary
bladder in female BALB/c mice exposed to 2-acetylaminofluorene
(2-AAF) at various concentrations in the diet for up to 33 months. (From
Ref. 63.).
,

Thresholds for Radiation and Chemical Carcinogenesis
%'isx(1iie1)
o 7Y.(1/91)
" g63 Y.(1t/167)
(0$4) .
50 100 150 200 250 300 3S0 400 450
Radiation dose (r)
Figure 4a. Cumulative incidence (in percent) of leukemia in C57BL
mice in relation to the dose of whole-body x-radiation administered in
a single exposure (--o-o-), with or without subsequent injections of
urethane (-x-x-). (Reproduced from Ref. 64.)
Figure 4b. Cumultui,ve incidence of carcinomas of the skin in mice
exposed once weekly to benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), with or without subse-
quent exposure to 12-C'-tetradecanoyl phorbot-13-acetate (TPA) twice
weekly. Doses refer to the amount of B(a)P applied to the skin each
week. (Reproduced from Ref. 65.)
decrease with decreasing dose and dose rate, that of high-
LET radiation tends to remain constant or even increase
(Fig. 5) (32,40,4I)~.
271
400
A/n, 24 FR. (A)
/ 60 FR. (a)
Figure 5. Life shortening (all causes) in male B6CF, mice in relation
to the total dose of single, fractionated (FR), or continuous whole-body
neutron- or gamma-irradiation. (Reproduced from Ref. 66.)
Cell Transformation In Vitro
The neoplastic transformation of cells in vitro, although
not strictly analogous to carcinogenesis in vivo, provides
a model system that can be helpful in identifying carcino-
genic agents and exploring their mechanisms of action.
Few detailed dose-response curves for cell transforma-
tion have been published as yet, but the morphological
transformaton of Syrian hamster embryo cells by ben-
zo(a)pyrene (BAP) (48,49) is consistent with one-hit
kinetics except at cytotoxic dose levels (50). A one-hit
model also holds for the transformation of such cells by
the combined effects of x-rays and BAP (50). With x-rays
alone, the frequency of transformation per surviving cell
is increased by a dose as low as 10 mGy, above which
it appears to increase curvilinearly with the dose up to
1.5 Gy; however, a linear increase over the same dose
range cannot be excluded (51). Although the rate of
transformation per unit dose typically decreases on pro-
traction or fractionation of exposure to gamma rays, it
may increase on protraction or fractionation of exposure
to fast neutrons (Fig. 6).
In C3H101/2 cells irradiated in vitro-as well as in
thyroid and mammary "clonogens" irradiated in vivo
(52)-"initiation" appears to occur with a frequency as
high as 0.01-0.1 per cell per Gy (53) and to increase as
a linear nonthreshold function of the dose (Fig. 7). The
subsequent, final transforming event in such cells is far
rarer, however, occurring at a rate of only 10-6 to 10-7
per cell generation (53,54).

272
15
38cGy/mm 0O86cOf/m,n JANUS NEUTRONS
SLOPE (:Gy-'1 59fix10'1 53.0x10-1 IOTV2 CELLS
COR COEF 0.990 0 998
SLOPE RATp(-/el 1 8.89
0 086cGy/min
' 38CGy /min
LL
0 20 40 60
DOSE,cGy
100
Figure 6. Frequency of neoplastic transformation in C3H IOTI/2 cells
exposed to fission-spectrum neutrons. Dashed lines indicate linear regres-
sions fitted to the initial portions of the dose-effect curves. (Reproduced
from Ref. 67.)
Interpolation and Extrapolation Models
Although the relation between the incidence of neoplasia
and the dose of carcinogen is known to vary with the type
of neoplasm, the carcinogen, and other variables, the
dose-incidence relationships at low doses is not known
precisely for any neoplasm or carcinogen. The risks of
low-level exposure to a cancer-causing agent can thus be
assessed only through interpolation or extrapolation from
effects observed at higher levels of exposure. For many
of the neoplasrns induced by ionizing radiation, the dose-
incidence relaticn generally conforms to the patterns il-
lustrated in Figure 8, which are consistent with those to
be expected if the probability of carcinogenesis could be
increased in a suitably susceptible individual by an appro-
priate mutation or chromosomal aberration in a single
somatic cell. Under this assumption, the dose-incidence
curve for high-L',ET radiation would be expected to con-
form, in general, to the expression:
I = C + aD
(1)
where I is the incidence at dose D, C is the incidence in
nonirradiated can:rols, and the coefficient a is a constant;
similarly, for low-LET radiation, the dose-incidence curve
would conform, in general, to the expression:
I = (C + aD + bD2)e-(p°+q°2) (2)
where the symobls are comparable to those above, ex-
cept for a different value of the coefficient a and the ad-
dition of the coefficients b, p, and q (55).
Upton
70
t1
G 30
C
a)
~
ti 20
C
O
~
a
E 10
~
~
~
H
0
-
Dose (Rods)
Figure 7. Dose-response relationship for the induction of neoplastic
transformation in mouse 10T1/2 cells by x-rays alone (o), or by x-rays
followed by phorbol ester, starting 48 h after irradiation and continued
for the full 6-week expression period (). No increase in transforma-
tion frequency was detected following exposure to phorbol ester alone.
(Reproduced from Ref. 68.)
While many of the observed dose-incidence curves con-
form to the latter pattern, the curve for radiation-induced
breast cancer appears more nearly linear, as noted above.
To allow for uncertainty about the shape of the dose-
incidence curve at low doses and thus to obtain a range
of reasonable risk estimates, alternative models (Figs. 9
and 10) have been used in assessing the risks of low-level
exposure to carcinogens. Most such models treat carcino-
genesis as a multicausal, multistage process. Depending
on the particular model that is used for interpolation or
extrapolation, however, the estimated risk at low doses
can vary by order of magnitude (e.g., Table 3). The linear
(one-hit) model for interpolating between the lowest dose

Thresholds for Radiation and Chemical Carcinogenesis
P(d)
30-5 '+
1Figure 8. Estimated risk of liver cancer, p(d), in relation to the dose
of aflatoxin, d, as de:ermined with different dose-incidence models; i.e.,
OH, one-hit model; MS, multistage model; W, Weibull modelt MH
multihit model; and MB, Mantel-Bryan (log-probit model). (From Ref.
56.)
Table 3
Estimated Risk cf Cancer of the Human Urinary Bladder
from Dail,v Ingestion of 0.12 g of Saccharin
Method of transspecies scaling and of
high- to low-dose extrapolation Lifetime cases
per million
exposed
Rat dose adjusted to human dose by surface
area rule
Single-hit model 1,200
Multistage model (with quadratic term) 5
Multihit model 0.001
Mantel-Bryan probit model 450
Rat dose adjusted to human dose by
mg/kg/day equivalence
Single-hit modet
210
Multihit model 0.001
Mantel-Bryan prot» t model 21
Rat dose adjusted to human dose by
mg/kg/lifetime equivalence
Single-hit model
5,200
Multihit model 0.001
Mantel-Bryan probit model . 4,200
Source: From Ref. 60.
273
g:ner.)forrn
all killing
atterwrttes F (D)
F(D) -(ap + at D+aZD2IeKP(-dt D-QZD2)
Dose, D
F(D)=aa+nZD2
WMrauc
Dou,D
F(D)-aa+etD
tineu
Oose, 0
F{D)=ca+crD.c~D~
hner auadytic
Figure 9. Dose-response curves for four different mathematical models
relating cancer incidence to radiation dose which were evaluated by the
National Academy of Sciences Advisory Committee on the Biological
Effects of Ionizing Radiation. (From Ref. 33.)
- high dose rate
- - - iow dose rate
DOSE -~-
Figure )[0. Diagrammatic representation of char.tcterisdc dose-response
curves, relating the incidence of tumors in laboratory animals to the
dose and dose rate of high-LET (-) radiation and low-LET (---)
radiation. (Reproduced from Ref. 69.)
at which a significantly increased incidence has been
observed and the baseline (zero dose) incidence is general-
1y thought to overestimate the risk at low doses (8,56),
and thus to provide an "upper limit" estimate of risk, with
the lower limit of the range extending to zero.

274
Although the mechanisms of action of carcinogens of
different types are still to be defined precisely, the ex-
isting data suggest that a linear nonthreshold interpola-
tion model may be appropriate only for an initiating agent
or a complete carcinogen, and that a model yielding a
smaller estimate of the risk at low doses is more likely
to be appropriate for a promoting agent. Similarly, for
a chemical that is activated through nonlinear metabolic
processes (57) or that acts through toxic effects elicited
only at relatively high doses (e.g., immunosuppression)
(58), a thresholad or quasithreshold dose-incidence model
is likely to be more appropriate.
In view, howt:ver, of the existence within the human
population of individuals who vary widely in their suscep-
tibility to cancer, as well as those who are at different
stages of carcingenesis as a result of the action of other
cancer-causing agents or risk factors, it is assumed that
a carcinogen may pose some degree of risk to the popula-
tion at any dose, by exerting carcinogenic effects that are
additive with those which account for the "spontaneous"
baseline incidence of cancer (Fig. 11). Hence, unless an
agent can be shown to act through effects that are not addi-
tive with those which account for the "spontaneous"
baseline incidence of cancer, a nonthreshold model is
generally recommended for assessing the carcinogenic
risks of the agenr for public health purposes.
ProbabNRy
of Cancer
Figtnre 11. Diagram illustrating the expected increment in risk of cancer
resulting from a lowdose of a hypothetical carcinogen. Because cellular
effects similar to those of the carcinogen may be produced in its absence
by "background" mechanisms, the effects resulting from low doses of
that carcinogen may be additive with those resulting from other "back-
ground" risk factors, thu;; causing an increase in the risk that is propor-
tional to the dose. (From Ref. 70.)
Upton
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Preparation of this report was supported in part by Grants ES 00260
and CA 13343 from the U.S. Public Health Service and Grant S[G-9
from the American Cancer Society.
The author is grateful to Mrs. Lynda Witte for assistance in the prepar-
tion of this report.
Address reprint requests to Arthur C. Upton, Institute of Environmen-
tal Medicine, New York University Medical Center. 550 First Avenue.
New York, New York 10016.
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