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L-1 1 MUP MOWS 19 84 CW{UZS AVAUB WOU Comrm11CE 2 , IRYI9 lR0at m Y4m 88F2 Bt i4 1984 3 . 4 5 RICHM AflNSlltOG i - 14 00 0 6 ~ cD 7 ~ QUBMENS & AN$WUS 14 - 20 ~. a o. ~ ~ 9 a. O ~ 10 ~ WILLIAM AUDRR W z 20 - 42 11 ~.1 ~ 12 C/) STAKM S. SCOff 42 - ~ z 13 ~ N ~ 14 I Q 15 ~' 5 U 16 0 z ~ 17 0 U w 18 a a ~ 19 O F 20 z x F N 21 z 0 22 Cn ~ N 23 N 24 ~ N 25

L-r 1 2 3 4 5 00 ~' . 6 C? 7 ~. ~ M. ftGi111[ Mt3NMS: P`eapie will be drib- bling in - I want to g.t it itarted bacaa.+s ws da have bussAs - to catch* etc. Thera are evaluation l'orms t.hat gmily has prepared on everybody's place and it would be very much appreclatted by gmily and by Statt and by, me and by all hands if you would give us your views. I am bringing you the fi~.•str speaker of ~ 9 o the afternoon and one of the final speakers of the con- 10 ~ z 11 C~ z 12 ~ ~ ference, Dick Armstrong who is the head of the Public Affairs Councill and the man probably more responsible other individusl for the professSonalieing o f than an y z 13 1-' ~ the public affairs end of our craft as a guy who started ~ 14 I in the public relations business; was aJouYSSalist a-zxi Q 15 a ~ then public ralatians. I've watched public affairs 16 0 Q grow in importance wer the years until today it seems 17 'z 0 to dominate the field or craft a1Co~,~thor. w 18 ~ ~ Di.ck Armstrong's auing to Sive us a talk 19 0 ~, on Vh<at is Rhead, that is beyund' the bussas....(Laughter). 20 Z w MR. RICHARD ARMS1Ri1+TG: Are you ready for F 21 z 22 23 24 25 me already? Thank you very much. Good muwning Iadiea and gontlecner.. It's a pleasure for me to be here and to s ee s o many g ood f r iend s. FAny of y ou I've kn aon f or a number of years. And I'm pleased to heva this oppurtunity to be w•ith you on this program.

L-2 1 ther importance is a cpmmodi.ty thst s traGSd back and 2 ,.,participate in this progrsm,y they told me. you were 4- 3 I v.ry important group of peoplrfts And I'm sure that you 4 are, I come from a city, Wsshington D. C. that whe- 5 t li When I was invited some months ago to f vrce and people like to talk ab uut how important they are. And wetre telling a story in Washington these days of the three people who were trying to build their ~ 8 0 z 13 H importance. And one of them .said well if you're really important in Washingion, and youtre invited to a meeting at The Whitehouse,.thePresident will ask you to stop and stay and have a iittle bite to eat with hi® in the Oval ~Office. And that's is you're really important. And the U) 14 I second one said, well that is importat, theress no ques- 15 '~ 15 ~ tion about that. And I go along with you up to a pointe16 z I mean if you're at a+a+eeting and you're invited to "stay 17 ~ 0 and s ort of have lunch on team with the president in the w 18 Oval o€fice, that's great. But if the red phone rings, 19 0 r- and he pi ic tts it up and aays I'm s orry, I'm busy right d 20 W r,c~ur, than you~re really important. And the third one 21 z sayd well all of these things are importat. But if youvre 22 really important, under those dreumstances, you're having 23 lunch and the phone rings and.the president pi c ks it up 24 and says it's f or yot3, 25 Well I thought we'd talk a little bit about

L-3 1 2 3 4 the eletction„ This is an election year and it Looks , like kin4 of a sleepy etectf.6b* one wag OeEys that Moadate will put you to sloet sad Aonaid Regan already is. 5 1 1 I ran into Gene VIcCarthy so®e months ~ 6 = ~ ago and he has a little analysis of the recent presi- ~ 7 ~ dency which I will pass onto you that I think you might ~ 8° be able to urse at some time. Jim McCarthy says that N4 9 0 FU proved that you could be president forever. And 10 z then Harry Truman came along and he proved that anyone 11 ~ could be preaidento And then we had Bisenhower and a 12 z Bisenhawer proved that we really didnot need a president. 13 E~ ~ And then in rather short order we 6ad JFR and IBJ and they ~ 14 Q~.~uved that we might be better off without a president. 15 ~ ~ T!>an he said Nis~cnn killed t&e office. Ford embalmed it. 16 0 Carter burried and naa aegan has proved that there's life 17 ~ 0 U after death, w 18 a ~ I hope you might get scame mileage out 19 ~ F uf that. 20 z Walll square one on the elaetion, the t- 21 z O conventional wisdorrw and I don't knowi what I can add to ~ ~ 22 ~ it is that Reagan is going to be re-elected, This weeks' ~ 23 polls you might have been too busy to read the paper this tV N ~ 24 week, but is the greatest spread that we've seen at this (11 25 point of an election since the McGovern year of 1972,

L-4 32 314 33 33 3J s Sam Donalcioa said on TV the other day it would take an act of God for Keegan not to be re- eLrscted. One certainty, hr,wewr, about politics is S that nothing is really certain. And there ara some clouds aa the horizon that is Vermo©t roister says ~ are probably no bigger than a man=s band at the moment 30 s E_ but they coW bec ome s torA c i ouds and they c ould `®ake . s :~ a difference. Ja ~ o What are they?- Well Rsgan~s age and ~ health I would suppose would -be oim. A minor 111ness Je CJ ~', c ould be ma j or news that would f ocus attenti on beyond J2 ~ ~ the iamediate problem. A minor illness is the type of 1Q sv , ~' thing of an appendectomy or something like that. Aheart J3 ~ s attack, sbhool would be out. Secondly I suppose there 's 1,3 S the possibility if some sort of an international brush !J, ~ ~ fire perhaps in the Middle 8ast, Central America -- per- J0 ~ o hapa the type of thing where the U.S. took scme sort of ~ o action or intervention perhaps overaction overreaction 8 C~ ~4 : and the criticism would be made that Reagan was being F 2 14 3 J iH trigger happy and moved too fast, etc. The third possibility would be for Reagan to step out of character, to be provoked to anger for in- stance. He mightoame off poorly, very poorly in one of the debates. I guess the decisionwas made last night, late last night that there will be two preaidential debates

L-r3 1 2 and one vice presidential dQbat.. Reagan is I am sure a reluctant participant in thoproeess. lio begins t o 3 loie the m+oment he walks in the door, It is a no-win 4 kind of siAu+ation f or him, And this is al l the more 5 CO so in the case probably with Busb and Ferraro. Cr) 6C' Furtherisore, Fi.tsa Mondale is an attrac- ~ ~ 7 I tive, articulate, very quick, very glib, he 's got an ~ 8~ answer for everything. And you can be sure that in the 9 o format if they possibly can, if they possibly can, the 10 ~ z Reagan will try to avoid any kind of one on one kind of 11 q confrontation. They won st want this at all. ~ 12 Cn ~ But these are the things that might, z 13 ~ F sort of wild cards that might appear on the scene that ~ 14 I might change things. But assumig that this does not hap- 15 ~ psa` le t f s l ook f ar a moment at the neat f our year s a nd 16 0 z_ what they might have to hold for us. 17 2 0 The Republisans have had a lot of luck U ~ 18 a ~ in the Senate. The Dan Bvana, thing in Washington scoop, 19 z F Jackson dying, the inner scene warfare in Texas in the 20 z x Democratic party. Elliott Richardson bursting on the w 0 ~ 21 z scene in Massachusetts, Whether he wins or not, it means ~ P 22 that the Republicans are probably going to hold onto the N N N 23 Senate and the Democrats are probably going to hold onto ~ ~ 24 the tlouse. 25 If Reagan is well ahead some 30 days before

L.-6 1 2 3 5 6 7 the election, really far ahaad, I imagine that he will switch g.ara and try to put all of his efforts toward getting more of a ltepubtican bouse« Eut the likelihood of thathappening is rather ieiprolfole boc,ause the way we are districted and redistricted around the cauntry, CO T) CO Q? the &epublicans would probably have to g®t as much as ,NO 60 or 65 percent of the votes` in many states in order to I ,!t get a majority of the congressional delegation. So who- ~ 0 ~ ~ ever is President, he is going to'hsve a divided Congress. 9 0 10 ~ But he wi11l probably realistically have a workable coali- w Z tion on most matters, most matters, 11 q ~ 12 vai ~ What should we ®xpectoin the next four 13 zysars? Not much I don't think for two reasona, First of 14 15 ~ ~ all, our political system we think and we talk about major- I Q ities. But actually for the system to move very far, very ... a 0 fast, we really need not a ma,f ority but about two-thirds. 16 U 17 18 19 z ~ Tdis is what Roosevelt had in 1936. It's what Johnson had O~ a or close to it in 1964-65-66. At best, the president will az be working with majority and not with two-thirds. O . P and secondly, the greatest strength of ou r z 20 ac 21 z'' system, I think, is its stabilityo And the nexxt few weeks _ 22 23 24. 25 a1L the shouting and hoopla about Mondale and Reagan and this one is for this and this one is for that, we're going to be emphasizing continually; their differences rather than their similarities. And their similarities are probably

L-7 1 far more important than their differences. I don't 2 ll 3 s anyone in this room that is going to go think there 4 to, bed the night before el.ection day worrying about what is going totrppen to the country the next day. 5 ' t huddling in Walt The bankers a"n w 6 2.0 ' ~ Street n+ow aying that my gosh, if Mondale is elected ~. I witre going to nationaiize the bank. The farmers are 8 0 bt.tching but thsysre not chilUng. The poor aren't Aout ~ 9 0 to riot because of the fear of starvation, Now foreign+s" ~ 10 ~1- ' t understand this ab o generally speaking don z 11 q ut our system, that the differences are very very smalZ. Th ~ ey way be 12 v~i z very important to us, but overall they are v ery very 22 23 24 25 I recall speaking to a group in Strwuda- burgh shortly after the so-called Saturday Night massacre and that was a group from almost a11 from Western Europe. And I said 1ook, forget about impeachment. Nixon is not g oing to be impeached. He might be impeached but he will not stand trial. If it comes to that he will resign. But there will be no riots in the street. The National Guard will not be called out. There will be no changes in foreign policy. There will be a feeling of humiliation and of shame. But our government will go on much the same. Precisely the same as it has. And itls interesting because when I run into some of the people who were at that meeting,

L-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 they still z+eme®ber that. Because what I said turned out to be right and I wasn't ctaiyevorytant. Anyone in this room cout have said tlse same thiegs. We know this and it's the stability of ouz.sqstem raaily that holds ~ ttte whole business to6;ether. So not much is going to CO 01 ~ ~~°• ~. 7 I But cain we expoct, no matter whose ele- 8° cted, weIre going to have taa increases -- we have to, 9 o Under the Republican administration, ther®'s some talk 10 z about a flat tax or a value-added tax. On the Democratic 11 ~ administration the first place they would go would be 12 c"1 n upper Incomes and corp~ate taxes. Lots of talk about z ~ 13 ~ tax reform, flat tax, value-added tax, but my friends, ~ 14 I the political pricetag of tax` reform is a tax cut. And Q 15 ~ ~ that isn't in the cards right now. Rod they wanted to do 16 0 this in 1981, they might have been able to pull together 17 0 () and sell it all at once. I don't thak that they can do w a 18 ~ it naw. 19 O P Some more taxes coming from some direction. 20 Z ~,., Secondly, a continuation of the so-called New FederaZism F 21 Z which is a ritzy language f or transferring power fr um 22 Washington to the states. And this is tdd.ng place more 23 24 25 by default than by design today for two reasons. Fforst of all, the atates are better off financially, so they have a measure of flexibility that the lbderal goderment

L-9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CO CO w c? (D ~ I ~ 8 0 doea mt have,, They don't have the long-ran* coemit- toants. And sec o©cily, the states many oif tbeaa stream- lined a lot o9 their opWatiQas and their procedures in th..19b0's and in the 19T0tsand they can ®ave a lot taster today than can the fedsrai governoant. So youi're goitlg to see without much talk about it and without much legislation a continued flow of more and more ~ authority to the statee, 9 ' 10 o ~r Next, we may tave seen - may have seen ' w z the end of deregulation. I think that it s pretty.much 11 z' over and what we may be looking at is re-regulation in- 12 12 ~ at,ad of deregulation, Now the airlines got their act. 1 3 z F ,< together this week. Had they not done so, the federai ~ 14 I Spvernaaent would have moved in and established soas; regu~. ~ 15 ~ latios to take care of the problem. But believe me, when ~ 16 0 z you ®ee the NAM advocating federal regulation on toxic ~ 17 ~ 8 Q w x waste, you can believe that the concept of deregulation t ~ may be ab out f inished and y w d be tte r watch s o I think 19 z O that is a trend that we're going tu see reversing. F 0< 20 W What would you ~tch for? Well under F 21 z 22 23 24 25 Mundale should he become president, I think you'd ha* lesa tolerance toward acquisitions and mergers so Stan, if you're thinking about buying another company or solne- thing like that, you might want to do it you know, quickly because of the Reagan attitude toward this, the Reagan