Philip Morris
World Conference on Smoking + Health A Summary of the Proceedings
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- World Conference on Smoking + Health
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- Date Loaded
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Document Images
Life Table For 32.5 Year Old Men
.EOSRestzoz
Estimate For Canadian Study
Never Cigarette Smokers By. Daily Amount
Smoked
Age Regularly 1-9
o~p
32.5 100.0
%
100.0
J
67.5 71.5
72.5 60.2
77.5 46.8
84.3 29.2
Life Expectancy:
Age 72.1
Years 59.6
Years Lost
0
63.2
48.8
32.6
14.8
68.5
36.0
3.6
10-20
%
100.0
57.8
43.7
30.8
13.9
67.2
34.7
4.9
21+
%
100.0
56.3
42.2
28.1
13.3
66.4
33.9
5.7
18 The Scientific Backgroun&
The figures in the body of the table show the
chances such 32.5 year-old-men have of living to
various ages depending upon their smoking habits.
71.5% of those who never smoked regularly may be
expected' to live to the age of 67.5. In contrast,
only 56.3% of those who smoke 21 or more ciga-
rettes a day may be expected to live to that age.
29.2% of the non-smokers, but only 13.3% of those
who smoke 21 or more cigarettes a day may be ex-
pected to live to the age of 84.3.
As shown at the bottom of the table, 32.5-year-
ol& Canadian veterans who never smoked regularly
have a remaining life expectancy of 39.6 years. In
contrast, those who smoke 21 or more cigarettes a
day have a remaining life expectancy of only 33.9
years. This is a difference of 5.7 years.
Findings in independent' studies carried out in the
United States are very close to findings in the study
of Canadian veterans.
This slide (# 3) shows life tables for 25-year-old
American men. It is based upon findings from a
study of 447,000 ~ men enroiled in an epidemiological
study by volunteer workers of the American Cancer
Society. 39,178 of these men died during the five
year period July 1, 1960 through June 30, 1965.
The figures shown here were adjusted to the 1959-
1961 United States life table for men.
77:7% of 25-year-old non-smokers may be ex-
pected to live to age 65. Only 54.0 fa of 25-year-old
men who smoke (and' continue to smoke) 40 or
more cigarettes a day may be expected to live to that
age.
119.2% of 25-year-old non-smokers may be ex-
pected pected to live to the age of 85. Only one-third that
many men who smoke 40 or more cigarettes a day
may be expected to live to that age.
Lighter smokers survive longer than heavy smok-
ers, but even smoking 1 to 9 cigarettes a day short-
ens life expectancy.
As shown at the bottom of the table, 25-year-ol&
Age
80
85
Life Table For 25 Year Old Men
Estimate For United States
Never Cigarette Smokers By Daily
Smoked
Regularly 1-9 10-19 20-39
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
.... .... .... ...
77.7 67.3 63.4 61.1
66.7 52.4 47.7 45.9
52.3 36.2 33.3 30.3
35.6 20.6 18.6 18.1
19.2 7.3 8.5 7.2
Amount
40+
100.0
. 54.0
40.0
25.7
14.3
6.5
~ Life Expectancy:
Er
.~ Age 73.6 69.0 68.1 67.4 65.3
° Years 48.6 44.0 43.1 42.4 40.3
0
'soseSsIVzoz
~ Years Last 0 4.6 5.5 6.2 8.3
Life Expectancy (Years) At Various Ages
Estimate For United States Males
Never
d Cigarette Smokers By Daily Amount
Age Smoke
Regularly 1-9 10-19 20-39 40 +
25 48.6 44.0 43.1 42.4 40.3
30 43.9 39.3 38.4 37.8 35.8
35 39.2 34.7 33.8 33.2 31.3
40 34.5 30.2 29.3 28.7 26.9
45 30.0 25.9 25.0 24.4 23.0
50 25.6 21.8 21.0 20.5 19.3
55 21.4 17.9 17.4 17.0 16.0
60 17.6 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.2
65 14.1 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.7
N
O
9o9RestVzoz
Loss` In Life _ Expectancy At Various Ages
Estimate For United States Males
----- - ---
Cigarette Smokers By Daily Amount
1-9 a day 10-1.9 a day 20-39 a day 40+ a day
Age ----
Years
%
Years
°a
Years
%
Years
%
25 4.6 9.5 5.5 11.3 6.2 12.8 - 8.3 17.1
30 4.6 10.5 5.5 12.5 6.1 13.9 8.1 18.5
35 4.5 11.5 5.4 13.8 6.0 15.3 7.9 20.2
40 4.3 12.5 5.2 15.1 5.8 16...8 7.6 22.0
45 4.1 13.7 5.0 16.7 5.6 18.7 7.0 23.3
50 3.8 14.8 4.6 18.0 5.1 19.9 6.3 24.6
55 3.5 16.4 4.0 18.7 4.4 20.6 5.4 25.2
60 3.1 17.6 3.5 19.9 3.9 22.2 4.4 25.0
65 2.8 19.9 2.9 20.6 3.1 22.0 3.4 24.1
~ Life expectancy of inen who never smoked regularly taken as 0 standard.
22
The Scientific Background
men who never smoked regularly have a remaining
life expectancy of 48.6 years. In contrast, those who
smoke 40 or more cigarettes a day have a remaining
life expectancy of only 40.3 years. This is a differ-
ence of 8.3 years.
This slide (#4) shows remaining years of life ex-
pectancy for men of various ages in relation to their
smoking habits. Of' course, as we grow older, we
have less years of life remaining to us; but at alli
ages, non-smokers may look forward to more years
of life than cigarette smokers.
This slide (#5) shows the difference between the
life expectancy of non-smokers and the life expec-
tancy of cigarette smokers of various ages. In age
range 35 through 65, men who smoke, (and con-
tinue to smoke) 40 or more cigarettes a day have
20% to 25of'o less years of life remaining to them
than are remaining to their friends who never
smoked r aaularly. Light smokers are not as badly off'
in this respect as heavy smokers.
Men who started to smoke cigarettes early in
their youth tend to smoke more cigarettes per day
and~ tend' to inhale the smoke more deeply than men
who started to smoke later in life; and they have
correspondingly shorter life expectancies. This is
shown in this slide (# 6) where the cigarette smok-
ers are clbssified' by the ages at which they began to
smoke.
Now let us consider (slide #7) the impact of cig-
arette smoking upon the male population of the
United States as a whole. The column at the left of
this table shows the survivorship of 25-year-old men
who never smoked regularly. That at the right shows
the survivorship of all 25-year-old American men.
The figures imply that' if it were not for cigarette
smoking, life expectancy for 25-year-old' American
men would be 3.4 years longer than it is today. If
you are inclined to think that this is a small differ-
ence, consider the following figures:
so9e9stzoz
Ufe Ta . le For 25-Year-Old Men
Estimate For United States
~a Never
k
d
S Cigarette Smokers By Age Began Smoking
~
a~ mo
e
Age Regularly 25-34 20-24 15-19 <15
% % % % %
~~ 25 100.0 100.0 100.0 .100.0 *100.0
..
65 77.7 67.2 65.0 60.2 55.5
~~ch 70 66.7 52.5 50.8 44.7 39.7
a; 75 52.3 38.7 35.1 30.0 24.6
o a 80 35.6 24.6 20.4 16.8 14.0
p o. 85 19.2 10.5 9.1 6.3 5.8
o ---
~ Life Expectancy:
~ Age 73.6 69.9 68.8 67.1 65.4
0
o Years 48.6 44.9 43.8 42.1 40.4
<
~ Years Lost 0 3.7 4.8 6.5 82
OT9886tiZoz
Survivorship Of 25-Year Old Men
United States Males
b. ~
W~ Never
Smoked
Reculariy
A I I
Men
n % Surviving
~ ~ 25 100.0 100.0 ~
,~ ., .... ....
p
~
P., & ~ 65 77.7 67.8 ~
n&n p
70
66.7 A
55.2
75
52.3 ~
41.2 ~
~ ~ 80 35
6 26.7
. ~
~ ~ 85 19.2 13.6
~
p
p ~
a~
Life Expectancy
Age
73.6 a
70.2
~ ~ Years 48.6 45.2
"°
p~ Years Lost 0 3.4
E. Cuyler Hammond
Life Expectancy At Age 25
United States 1919-1965
Year White
Male
1919-1921, 41,6
1'929-1931 4 1.8
1939-1941 43.31
1949-1951 44.9
1959-1961 45.7
1963 45.5
1965 45.6
25
N'on-White
Male
35.5
32.7
35.9
39.5
41.4
40.7
40.7
1960-1!965 Estimated Years Lost Due To
Cigarette Smoking (total U.S. Males)---- 3.4
Slide 8
Vital Statistics of the United States and the American Cancer
Society's epidemiology study of'over one million men and women,
This slide (#8) shows trends in the life expec-
tancy of' 25-year-old American men~ from 1919 to
1965.
This has been a half century of tremendous ad-
vances in medicine, public health and the American
standard of living. The sulfa drugs and antibiotics
were developed; infectious diseases, pneumonia, and
tuberculbsis were brought under control, and new
miracles of surgery were introduced. As a result, life
expectancy increase& by 4.0 years for white males
and 5.2 years for non-white males.
During this same period, cigarette smoking in the
United States became popular and increased by leaps
.26 The Scientific Background
and bounds. It is estimated that approximately 3.4
~years of life expectancy are now lost due to the habit'.
a Thzs loss is not far short of the net gain~ from halff a
century of scientific and sociali progress. Were it not
for this, it appears that life expectancy of American
men would have increased by about 7.4 years for
white males and 8.6 years for non.white males.
Most distressing is the fact that the life expectancy
of American men has shown no improvement since
1959-1961. This flattening off has been observed in,
other countries in recent years; and.in some countries
life expectancy of males has actually started to de-
crease.
Morbidity
Information on morbidity among smokers and
non-smokers has recently been reported by the US.
National Health Survey of Cigarette Smoking and
Health Characteristics. Data on smoking habits were
collected for all persons aged 17 and over in a sam-
ple of 42,000 families interviewed during the 12
months ending June, 1965 about episodes of illness
and disability. Three conventional indices of morbid-
ity were used; days lost from work, days of re-
stricted activity and bed days. All three yielde&
essentially similar findings.
This slide (#9) summarizes the findings on
"days lost to work." The risks expressed as days lost
per person-year were higher among cigarette smok-
ers than among non-smokers. This was found in
both sexes under age 64. No such difference was ob-
served among males over 65, but this point could
not' be investigated for females over 65 because of
insufficient data. The information on bed-days is
consistent with that on work days lost in indicating
the excess morbidity reported' for smokers to be con-
centrated at ages under 65 and to be negligible at
the older ages.
The contrast between cigarette smokers and non-
smokers was further accentuated when the smokers
