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VIDEO NfO1VfTC3R1A1G S£RV I CE5 OF AMERICA. fNC: ,'.3G' wPsr 4hzf Srrocv. nrw Vb+t AA' tGG.ld (212) 2?Ik?OW /fma rL7.Z1'1J8-d9Qb <l*~~ lnha+r ROOd :SW/e~.3 Z'5 ~wk1Ay~dAQ,AI (ap) ~i6~2•adtto /r+or (i i3) ~s?`977a }:Jd Wt7+ 5~'~+~ i'wK`C (rni Cr'A.]020 ~`' '. .i6'+ Ne..br,ry SNeeL 8odon 4" 02115 . tW, (it~) 3eo-W+r kx f2f3J (71 N9- 1~i/J ~R7~6d01527 ~u v;SO Charanur SMocd ~ . (d f) 26,11 aa,- (ef.7 26o- fat9l $ff1'f8';~A~I Dp11vt,lJt7$25li (1 w1) dt.w. Pb fd % Fos, ,m<1 dsr-h715S', +LW hbforsry As.r W4~yt C 20045 . Sd3 fJES (1rQ)6IWPO0ir.~,(1tl~ -.AIL-isonSheetSonFrxr+oaCp CA 04107 (Irt6/ 6t2Ji3+6YJlt~ (df51 SeJ bf~B (M) JpS-xto'/kU rzs .iq3-sas fC7n0 wrssmer.-rc fbusnnm T,X rr,'W2 (NJ)'7a9-1d,fb /FDr (J1,3) 780Yx16p 2y35iBb~r 8°u+e`°rq 9 ~•,l137 (t Ps7 i76-t411 f /r ialso~- wo Eon nl,r,w:, Awrwe. oerne. Co $020 (J011 'idI-Tf3d,/ Fac,h7(lt/ &12.e t0n e:70 OAOh.eoe ANerr ~s. ~ Ct qstep (l0!)'C6J-: (~1d /Iur 1411 f05Y'FpUfm AKInyrer. Sonpl~~,rl 02f01 (f fVJ ftI •IA60 / 1•tmr (d1t~),Sdd-02JD A BVRU-1LFS A'rrworp TRANSCRIPT DATE April 4, 1993 TIZCIK 9::90-iasZII AM, ('ET) . Z+T~.^TWRK ABC-T_V PROGRAM Gand' Mormi ca Bill Ritter, co-host: _ Presidient Clinton's economic proposals could shake things up'on Wall Street, particularly for companiesin the health care industry and tobacco.companies that might be a'ffected by the so-called sin tax. Gary shilling is an economic consultant and investment analyst. He also writes a column for Forbes magazine', and he's here to tell us where the stock market is headed and how the Clinton economic plan might change that direction. Thanks for joining us. Let''s talk about health care stocks. They have been going down as of'late. Is this in reaction--what's thie trend'--is it'in, reaction, to Clinton's proposal? Gary shilling (Forbes M'agazine)': Well, partly. Thee country has been deciding over the last couple of years that we're through with the era of preserving life at any cost. we're on to the era of medical cost control. The Clintons have certainly helped that era along, but it was there anyway. Ritter: On Friday, the stock market went down sixty-five or so points, led by Philip Morris. Their stock dropped'something likee tw ent. What happened there? Shilling: Well, they have a different problem, and it''s really called generics. And whether it's generic cigarettes or generic foods, what's interesting,. Americans are so pressed to make ends meet that they're not only buying generic dog food, they're buying genericc cigarettes. And that's a big difference. Philip Morris makes fifty-fiLe cents a pack on MarLboros, five cents a pack on generics. But they've really said in effect they've 7ot to move to generics. They have no choice. The public is' demandling them. Ritterr A lot of people are investing in the stock market with interest rates and, CD rates low'. You have a group of stocks that we've charted called your true' believer stocks, and Philip_.Morris is on them, is one of them. Let's'take a look:at some of them. Youlhave IBM, iNm+aa f~~ov~ oywas rt,ay oryoe ~aeorof rrsR,a nev,~w amonrw.a re~eac7~,Any atKoonor,Aao~tlCO~o~oucFCaBOwy /o• r~nl.r ~«aeder~. QI A•.oe,orope oa evs rorei r owa.atmr in onv lomnolltor a oerco a 3t ooy. Aan air dolC. ovob oo..etk. Io« t4 dara. Cea$Cr•r v1YlS ofM1cs

-z- }Kerck, as well as Philip~Morris. Let's take a look at IBM first. What's happening with IBM? It's gone down as we can see for the last three years, over the last three yaars? (Graphic, chart of IBM stock performance) Shil~lingr We1l, IBM was a true belisver stoclc. A lot of people thought IBM--they called, it Big Blue--was the leader of the market. You looked' at what they were doing, you knew what the market was going: to do. But they've obviously faLlen from grace. Their ability to control the computer industry, through malinfrantes has given way to the PC''s that are on everybody's desk, and they were technologically obsolete. Ritter: Is it still good'to invest in the stock market, or is this not a place for amateurs? Shilli~ng: We11, there's this great feeling now that money has no place else to go but stocks., Mobody's buying real estate, CD rates are low. But the problem is when everybody believes there's only one thing stocks can do, go up, driven by money having no place else to go, that's usually the sign of'a peak. Arnd I think stocks are in the process of peaking. They may not be quite there, but I rather suspect within the: next three, six months, we're going to see a teaj!or top. But the problem is we haven't quite sucked in everybody who's suckable yet. Ritter: You don't have any exact predictions, Gary. Here I thought you were going to give us what to do with our money. Thanks for j!oiningius this morning. I 1 #!