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VIDEO MONITORING SERVICES OF AMERICA. INC. R2~ ~~~~ ~~ ~ (Jl.}) ld?~~~ ~1J)'~ ~ 412C ~ A4eB0.id r~s 6 A~ R 3J/ iL (nas) r~tlifor ~ ~ ~ JA~O-/ ~ 1.1) 39a-'t3~1 ~ d7r?]0 .16, Ae." S1nt+N. &atA7++ A44 02115 (6 fn !6l-! 421 / Ksr 161i ?6b iJOf +O0 East Nr,rn awrxa. Dern.e. CU BUaM (JOS) ld 1-7tS! /Fmc (30.T1 EJ?-e 104 pinsra 1.it/ ~+af 6o6u 6tr1 tal Ai+ewor pobl I!c 75251 (11r) dIJ-9d9i / Fdr (2141 Od/• 11155 aj0 Ov (I0.1) 96J- Aenc Wast 9 /!ur 1203) p;S]-1 . C10e5tip (~ s ~ ~~~ rwo.) k7Ad NoAOnd A.aOuk,,a Wt7s ~on DC ?OOdS (2R?) 7 oJ-711~ / F~c (2[7y JoJ-5451 rv5t Fa rtn,~.er,vr.- Son ~reon CA~ fpf (If4) sN.is60/ear(b Sda-Ol ~ 04107 onaon ~ 6 J6/fC~f3 ~1~ ~~ 1 61 ( 1I u.lJl /1 lmr (d b lP 1 A BU ELLA''S AM.4otp DATE April 4, 1993 TII~ 9 :$0-30-ZAQ AM ( ET ) NETWORX ABC-TV PROGRAM Goffd Morni A~nerica TRAIVSCRIPT Bill Ritter, co-host: President Clinton's economic proposals could shake things up on Wall Street, particularly for companies in the health care industry and tobacco.companies that might be affected by the so-called sin tax. Gary shilling is an economic consultant and investment analyst. He also writes a column for Forbes magazine, and he's here to tell us where the stock market is headed and how the Clinton economic plan might change that direction. Thanks for joining us. Let's talk about health care stocks. They have been going down as of late. Is this in reaction--what's the trend--is it in reaction to Clinton's proposal? Gary Shilling (Forbes Magazine): Well, partly. The country has been deciding over the last couple of years that we're through with the era of preserving life at any cost. We're on to the era of medical cost control. The Clintons have certainly helped that era along, but it was there anyway. Ritter: On Friday, the stock market went down sixty-five or so points, led by Philip Morris. Their stock dropped something like twEnt - Cent. What happened there? Shilling: Well, they have a different problem, and itfs really, ca,lled generics. And whether it's generic cigarettes or generic foods, what's interesting, Americans are so pressed to make ends meet that they're not only buying generic dog food, they're buying generic cigarettes. And that's a big difference. Philip Morris makes fifty-fiVe cents a pack on Marlboros, five cents a pack on generics. But they've really said in effect they've Vot to move to generics. They have no choice. The public is demanding them. Ritter: A lot of people are investing in the stock aarket-with interest rates and CD rates low. You have a group of stocks that we've charted called your true believer stocks, and Philip..Morris is on them, is one of them. Let's take a look at some of them. You have IBM, Mobrk7t wippled oy W+ts moy ary b. uaw tor weind revievc aroMb a rexarch My arbioolbn i.~oOCC~ « a+t*e d+owv br peM h tabkkdu. A-Oeorope og " .aaaipl r aAMable h+ anv 00 mot tor a oenoo d 31 ooy. hom atr do1e. ouOb oorst/.ft br 14 doVS. Cot a'N VAG dM1ca

-2- Merck, as well as Philip Morris. Let's take a look at IBM first. what's happening with IBM? It's gone down as we can see for the last three years, over the last three years? (Graphic, chart of IBM stock performance) Shilling: Well, IBM was a true believer stock. A lot of people thought IBM--they called it Big Blue--was the leader of the market. You looked at what they were doing, you knew what the market was going to do. But they've obviously fallen from grace. Their ability to control tha computer industry through mainframes has given way to the PC's that are on everybody's desk, and they were technologically obsolete. Ritter: Is it still good to invest in the stock market, or is this not a place for amateurs? Shilling: Well, there's this great feeling now that money has no place else to go but stocks. Nobody's buying real estate, CD rates are low. But the problem is when everybody believes therefs only one thing stocks can do, go up, driven by money having no place else to go, that's usually the sign of a peak. And I think stocks are in the process of peaking. They may not be quite there, but I rather suspect within the next three, six months, we're going to see a major top. But the problem is we haven't quite sucked in everybody who's suckable yet. Ritter; You don't have any exact predictions, Gary. Here I thought you were going to give us what to do with our money. Thanks for joining us this morning. # # #