Philip Morris
Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality Among Nonsmokers and A Note on Passive Smoking
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- Garfinkel, L.
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- Merlino, L.
- Rogot, E.
- Vasquez, H.
- Merlino, L.
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Time Trends In Lung Cancer Mortality Among Nonsmokers and a
Note on Passive Smoking t NoTicE
Lawr.noe Catllnk*l, AA.A. 2.3
ABSTRACT--1_unq cancer mortsiity rats were oomputed for
nonamok.rs in th. American Cancer SocdWs prospecttve study
for thr.N 4-year pMiods trom 106o to 1972 aand in ths, Dorn study
of wt.rans for three 5-yw psriods trom 1954 ~to 190. Th.n was
no evidanee of ~ any trend in ths." ratss by 5-ysar ape groups or
for thM total groups. No time trend was observed in nonsmokers
for cancers of other sNecl,d sitaa sxcspt for a devsaas In
cancer of tM utsrus. Compared to norumokinq women marr/sd
to nonsmoking husbands, nonsmokers manied to smoking tws-
bands showed very little. If any. increased risk of lung oancir.-
JN C I 1981: 66:1061-1 oEB:
Mortality rates from lung cancer in men in the
United States have been rising steadily since 1930 (the
first year these cancers were classified separately), and in
women since the mid-1960's. It has generally been
accepted that the major reason tor the increase has
been the cigarette smoking patterns which began in
young men around World War I and in young women
in the 1!930's and 1940's. A large body of evidence from
epidemiologic and pathologic studies on smokers con-
firms this concl'usion (1): A recent estimate of the
percentage of cancers attributable to smoking in men
was 34.5% for total cancers and 82.8% for lung cancer.
In women the comparable percentages were 5.4 and
43.1% (2), This analysis was based on data from the
large epidemiologic study of the ACS and covered the
period 1967-71. It was based on a number of assump-
tions than would give slightly different figures if the
smoking distributions in the study population differed
from those of the general population or if smoking
distributions changed in the late 1970's compared to
the late 1960's (as they indeed have in women).
There has been a suggestion, however, that the lung
cancer trend in nonsmokers has also increased in the
United States over the years. Fnstrom (3) stated that "a
more complete understanding of lung cancer etiologyy
is needed." This analysis indicated a large relative
increase in lung cancer mortaliry, in nonsmokers in
both white men and white women between 1914 and
1975 on the basis of an interpretation of data in
samples of national mortality statistics and several
epidemiologic studies in different periods of time (3).
Enstrom recognized that most of the increase occurred
between a 1914 survey of death registration areas in 24
states and national mortality statistics reported in 1935
and that most of that increase was probably attributable
to incompleteness of reporting lung cancer and to
changes in diagnostic criteria.
Nevertheless, the possibility exists that lung cancer is
increasing in nonsmokers who have had increasing
exposure to other factors-occupational exposures,
This mater+al may be
protected by copyrigM
hn (Tiqo 17 U.S. Code~
general air pollution, and perhaps even to passive
smoking (inhaling the smoke from smokers). Even if
these factors were related to the alleged increase in
lung cancer, they could have had only minimal effect
on the upward trend for lung cancer in men, since the
mortality rates among smokers and nonsmokers differ
so greatly: Moreover, in the last 50 years and until
recently, most men had a history of cigarette smoking.
Among women lung cancer rates remained low up to
about 1960. Since then, there has been a threefold
increase in rates attributable in large part to the
changes in smoking patterns among women during the
preceding two or three decades.
In this paper, information is provided on trends for
lung cancer (and cancers of several other sites) in
nonsmokers over a 12-year period (1960-72) from data
in the prospective study of the ACS. In addition, data
for nonsmokers from the Dorn study of veterans for the
years 1955-69 are given. While such data do not
provide evidence over a very long time span, they are
based on the two largest prospective studies in the
United States and cover a 174-year period from 1955 to
1972.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Procedures in the collection of data in the prospec-
tive study of: the ACS have been presented in a number
of publications (4-6). There were 94,000 male and
375,000 female nonsmokers at the start of the study. In
the ACS study, a'nonsmoker" is one who reported he
or she had never smoked or smoked only occasionally,
but had never smoked regularly. Classification was
made as of the start of the study, and very few
nonsmokers reported that they started to smoke on any
of four later questionnaires.
Enrollment of subjects in the ACS study began in
October 1959 and extended through March 1!960. Fol'-
low-up was complete for 98.4% of all subjects through
June 1971 and 92.8% complete for the 12th year of the
study. Deaths were reported by the ACS volunteers, and
death certificates were obtained from state health de-
AaattcvutvoN usw ACS- American Cancer Society.
.
" Received Oaober 23, 1980; accepted: January, 26, 1981.
' DDepartment ot Epidemiob`y, and Sutistics. American Cancer
Seciety. 777 Third Ave., New York. N.Y. 10017..
' I thank Eugene Rogot for supplying the data (or the Dorn studs
of vetaans and Henry Vasqua and L-inda Merlino for atsisuing
the ptocessing of the data in this study.
1061
JNd: WOL 66. NO: 6., JUNE 1961
2+C :338Z172

1'062 Guflnksl
partments. Mortality data for this analysis begin with
observation starting on July 1, 1960. Data are presented
for three 4-year periods: period 1, July 1, 1960; through
June 30, 1964;, period 2. July 1, 1964, through June 30,
1968; and period 3, July 1. 1968, through June 30,
1972. Person-years of observatson in nonsmokers and
deaths at single years of attained ages 35-89 years were
computed and combined by 5-year attained age groups.
In the Dorn study of veterans, questionnaires were
mailed' starting in January 1954 to 293,000 veterans
holding U.S. Government life insurance. About 65% of
the questionnaires were received over a period of
severil', months. In January 1957 a second questionnaire
was mailed to those not responding to the first mailing
and the replies raised the total to 85% (7). About 54,000
of those who replied were nonsmokers. The same
classification of nonsmokers was used in this study as
was used for the ACS study. Person-years of observa-
tion and mortality by single years of attained age were
computed starting with January 1, 1955, for the re-
sponders to the first mailing and starting with January
1. 1958, for the responders to the second mailing.
Death certificates were supplied to the Veterans' Ad-
ministration in support of insurance claims through
1962. For the period 1962-69, death certificates were
obtained through field work at health departments by.
ACS personnel (8):
Death rates by 5-year age groups were adjusted to the
distribution of the stationary population (,L:) of white
men and white women of ages 35 years and over in the
abridged life tables for the U.S. popul'atian in 1965 (9).
Differences in death rates for periods I and 2 and
periods I and 3 were tested for significance at the
P<0.05 level by the Mantel-Haenszel procedure (10).
RESULTS
Tlrts. Tnndk In Lung Cancar Mortality
Among Nonsrnok.n
Table I shows the 5-year attained age death rates for
lung cancer among nonsmokers in three periods of
time. The table includes men and women in the ACS
study and men in the Dom study of veterans. There
were 195 deaths from: lung cancer among male non-
smokers and 564 deaths from lung cancer among
female nonsmokers in the ACS study during the 12-
year period. There were 168 deaths from lung cancer
among nonsmokers in the 1!5-year period in the Dom
study of veterans. Some of the rates computed for 5-
TeBLE 1-DeatA rates fmin ltiwp cancer per 100.000 person-years among worsmokers. apa 35-89 yeara, by
time period:
ACS prospective study and thc DorR study of aeteruna
ACS prospective study'
Attained a8e eroup, yr' Period 1: Period 2: Period 3:
July 1960- July 1964- July 1968-
June 1964 June 1968 June 1972
Dorn's study of veteranss
Period 1: Period 2: Period 3:
Jan. 1955- Jan. 1960- Jan. 1965-
Dec. 1959 Dec. 1964 Dec. 1969
Males
35-39
40-44 - (8:7) (14.3)
45-49 (4.0) (5.1)
50-54 (5.3) 8.8 (8.8)
56-59 10.5 11.6 8.3 (12.0)
60-64 17.0 17.3 17.5 112 (10.7)
66-69 18.6 29.4 34.3 25.1 16.9
70-74 32.3 26.4 19.2 39.9 40.5
76-79 32.7 41.5 58.6 (37.8) (15.0)
80-84 (47.9) 106.8 51.9 - (200.6)
86-89 61.8 152.7 (69.9) (595.2)
No. of deaths 52 74 69 38 52
Ase-atandardisad death rate 12.5 18.5 15.8 189 13.4
Females
36-39
40-44 - (3.5) (3.5)
45-49 6.9 (3.3) (1.6)
50-54 6.2 7.7 (3.0)
W59 7.4 8.0 6.8
6Q-6i 14.0 12.3 14.5
66-69 15.6 152 17.7
70-74 19.4 21.1 22.0
76-79 37.3 30.5 36.3
80-84 51.5 45.1 40.8
W89 53.4 44.6 59.5
No. of deaths 175 184 205
Ase-standr<rdised death rate 13.8 12.9 13.1
(103.5)
(8.6)
(48.0)
43.5
382
472
(20.6)
78
19.6
~
~
~
w.
Cj
GO
~
' Some 5-yr aQe eroupe were combined in the standardization of ratss to avoid 0 cases in these
aroups.
~ NY+nbers iw pareetAeses indicate <5 deaths in group. ~
w
JNQ,, YOC. 66. NO. 6. ]UNE 1961

Lung Csna.r Tr.nds In Non.mok.n 10(
year age groups were small and subject to considerable
sampling variation. There was no appearance of any
consistent increase in the lung cancer death rate among
nonsmokers with ume by 5-year age groups. The age-
standardized rates for males shown in table I and in
text-figure 1 showed no trend~: The rates for women
were based on many more cases, and the age-standard~
ized rate was virtually the same in all three periods.
The differences in rates between periods I and 2 and
periods I and 3 were not statistically significant in
both the ACS study and the Dorn study of veterans.
The analysis was based on the underlying cause of
death on death certifiotes. The death rates for the
three periods were also standardized to the distribution
of the stationary population of white men and women
combined, of ages 35 years and over, in the abridged
life table for the U.S. population in 1965. This
standardization raised the ntes frn males slightly and
decreased the rates for females slightly, but it changed
the pattern of the trends very little.
An atterhpt was made in the first 6 years of follow-up
in the ACS study to obtain confirmation of diagnosis
for all cases with cancer from physicians who signed
the death certificates or from hospitals in which death
occurred. Information was received confirming the
primary site of cancer in 78% of the cases, and
microscopic confirmation was obtained in 69% of the
cases in the first 6 years (6).
Table 2 shows a comparison of the death certificate
diagnosis and the final diagnosis from the medical
report. Among nonsmoking men, 74 were reported to
have died of lung cancer according to the death
certificates. Six of these (8.1%) were reported to have
died of cancer of another site on the final report.
However, 9 (0.8%) of the deaths reported as being due
to cancer of a site other than lung on death certificates
proved to be due to lung cancer on the final report.
Thus among nonsmoking men there were 74 deaths
from lung cancer reported on death certificates and 77
deaths from lung cancer according to the final medical
report.
3
so
oamt stuM ..c.s 6ruM,
MEN 01"
ACS S7UO'Y,,
o so
0
lo
k
TABLE 2-Lisnp cancer dfat/u among worinoken in firat 6 years
qf attidy on death aeriiJi,uitea and on Jira! rcporr.
Final De+th certificate diagnosis
report Lung cancer Other cancer
disenosis
No.
Percent
No.
Percent
Males
Lung eancer 68 91.9 9 0.8
Other cancer 6 8:1 1.153 992
Total 74 100.0 1.162 100.0
Femsles
Lung eancer 169 83.3 10 0:2
Other cancer 34 16.7 6.160 99.8
TocaP 203 100.0 5.170 100.0
lin women the picture was somewhat different. Two
hundred and three cases of lung cancer among non-
smokers were reported to be lung cancers on death
certificates, and 34 (16.7%) were reported to be cancers
of other sites on the final medical report. A smaller
number, 10 (0.8%), of those cancers that were reported
as being of a site other than the lung on death
certificates were reported to be lung cancers on the
final report. Thus on death certificate reports, 203
nonsmoking women were reported to have died of lung
cancer in the first 6 years. On the final report, 179 (a
decrease of 11.8%) were reported to have d'ied of lung
cancer. About one-third of the 34 females whose causes
of death were attributed to lung cancer on the death
certificates and changed on medical confirmation died
from breast cancers. However, breast cancer was under-
diagnosed on death certificates in nonsmoking women.
There were 1.310 breast cancers reported on death
certificates in the first 6 years of the study and 1,371 on
the final report.
Table 3 shows the age-standardized rates for total
mortality for all cancers and for cancers of selected sites
among nonsmokers in the three time periods. Overall
mortality in men decreased 3% from period' 1 to 3. This
slight difference was statistically significant at the
PC0.05 level because of the large number of deaths
involved. None of the differences in total cancer or in
cancers of other sites in men in table 3 between periods
1 and 2 and periods I and 3 were statistically signifi-
cant. Women had an 8% decrease in total death rates
between periods 1 and 3. The difference in rates was
statistically significant. The decreases in total cancer
and uterine cancer between periods I and 2 and periods
I and 3 were statistically significant. None of the
differences for cancers of other sites were statistically
significant except for the 29% decrease in cancers of the
buccal cavity, pharynx, larynx, and esophagus between
periods 1 and 3.
YM Pssshr. Smoking
TE%TFlGURL t...-l-una caflcEr IDoriali[y. rates in three 4-yf pCrlOdl
for nonsmokers in the ACS prospecuve study and for nonsmokers A number of studies have established
that non-
in three 5-yr periods in the Dorn study of vercrans. smokers exposed to smoke from cigarettes in a
poorly
JNQ, vOL 66. NO 6. JUNE 1%1

1064 Caritnk.l
TABLE 3-Trendr in mortality ratu f*one eereerm of ielscttd rittt ix 6lree tiMt penoda for
wow.mr~kera A CS svr stvdv: 196o-7
r*afa«t'
No. of Period' 1! Period 2: Period 3:
Parameter deaths July 1!960- July 1964- July 1968-
June1964 June 1968 June 1972
Males
Total desths 19,805 1,608.7 1.588.6 1.b69.9
Total cancers 8,151 247.8 252.4 251.6
Cancers of bucca)iavity. pFiarynz. larynx, and esophagus 62 6.86 6.79 5.46
Ce,ncer of colon-rectum 636 51.9 46.0 60.4
Cancer of pancreas 199 15.0 17.6 14.0
Cancer of prostate gland 573 69.5 63.1 59:6
Fem.les
Total deaths 62.966 1.494.5 1,485.8 1.374.2
Total cancers 13.275 317.9 304.6 298.1
Cancers of buccal cavity. pharynz, larynz, and' esophaaw 159 4.88 4.21 3.48
Cancer of colon-rectum 2,429 68.0 59.8 56.7
Cancer of pancreas 688 17.4 16.2 14.8
Cancer of breast 3,186 69.3 68.0 76.0
Cancer of uterus 833 22.1 18.4 15.0
ventilated room will show increased' levels of carbon
monoxide in their blood. These higher levels of carbon
monoxide can result in deterioratiom of psychomotor
performance. Many nonsmokers have acute eye and
throat irritation responses in the environment of ciga-
rette smokers (11). One paper reported changes in lung
function tests in people classified as passive smokers
compared& to nonsmokers, and these changes were
interpreted as demonstrating a greater reduction in the
function of small airways (12). Hirayama (13) reported
lung cancer mortality ratios in Japan ranging up to 2':1
in nonsmoking women with husbands who smoked 20
or more cigarettes a day compared to nonsmoking
women with nonsmoking husbands. Trichopolous et
al. (I4) reported similar findings in a case-control
study in Greece.
A similar analysis was made of nonsmokers in the
ACS study, even though classifying nonsmoking women
on the basis of the smoking habits of their husbands is
not an accurate measure of their degree of passive
smoking. Moreover, exposures in Japan and Greece
may be very different than they are in the United States.
Lung cancer mortality among persons who were
married to cigarette smokers was compared with the
mortality among those married to nonsmokers.
A total of 176,739 nonsmoking women were identified
who were married a) to men who never smoked, b) to
men who currently smoked cigarettes regularly but less
than 20 cigarettes a d2y, and c): to men who currently
smoked 20 or more cigarettes a day. Most husbands had
smoked for 20 or more years before the study began,
and presumably their wives were more likely to have
been passive smokers than were the women married to
nonsmokers. Twenty-eight percent of the husbands of
nonsmoking women were nonsmokers compared' to
21% of men in the total study population. Table 4
shows the results of this analysis. Expected numbers of
deaths were based on the lung carrcer rates for the 12-
year period' (1960-72) by 5-year age groups of' the
JNCt. VOL. 66. NO. 6. )t'NE 1981
women with nonsmoking husbands. No attempt was
made in this first analysis to adjust for other possible
confounding factors. The observed versus expected
lung cancer mortality ratio for women whose husbands
smoked less than 20 cigarettes a day was 1.27; for those
whose husbands smoked 20 or more cigarettes a day, it
was 1.10. Neither of these differences was statistically
significant at P<0.05 by the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.
A separate matched-groups analysis was made of the
lung cancer deaths among the same 3 groups of
women to eliminate the possible effects of potential
confounding factors. The women in the 3 groups were
matched by age (5-yr age groups), race (white, non-
whice), highest educational status of husband or wife
(not a high school graduate, high school graduate, or
higher), residence (rural, not rural), and husband
occupationally exposed to dust fumes, or vapors (yes
or no). The analysis was restricted to nonsmoking
women who were not sick and who had no serious
disease at the start of the study. "Adjusted" numbers of
deaths for each matched diad were computed, as
described in other publications (1'3, 16). In this pro-
TAaLL 4.-Ob~ nerm upat.d' heW screer d.atJia among
woweewkiep wvnW. Wa/t eipnrette eMok-p Ayeba*ds: ACS stLdy.
Jaeo-zs'
Husband Husband
Husband
Parsmeter did not smoked <20 smok.d ?M
unohe c4arettes/ c+ga+'etw/
day day
OMerred dst}u 65 39 49
Expected ~ deaths 65.00 30.67 44.67
Mortal ity ratio 1.00 1.27 1.10
' Expected deaths ate based on the lung cancer tates by 5-yr
ese srottps in ..omen with non.mokinQ husbands applied to the
peFaon.years of wornen with smoking husbands.
TAe 96% confidence limit for women with husbsnda smoking
<20 eit;arettea/day was 0.86, 1.89: for women with husbands
smoking z20 eiprettes/day, it was 0.77, 1.61.

Lung Cancer Ttwtde In Nonsmokers tC
TAsLE 5-Matched proup itvdy: Agjvsted' twp faneer d.atJtW
a"wo+tQ women witA nonamodrirp bwbawd+ +RateAcd with sswwen
mib4 rnlokinp kti.bandr
Group No. of
~
eanoer
deaths
Rstio,
P`
Nonsmoking husband 26.6 1.00
Husband smoked <20 35.0 1.37 NS
eis.rtttea/tisy
Nonsmoking husband
$4.5
1.001
Husband smoked ;z20 86.s 1.04 Ns
eirisr+ctta/day
' See text tor definition of adjusted d..t3n.
~ Matched on the basiu of a)..ite's 5-yr ase sroup, b) ht»band's
oeup.tiorulI exposure. c) highest educational level of husband or
wife, d) tsa, c) urban-rural residence, and 1) ab.enoe of .erious
diasa.c at the start of the study..
` NS=not ugttif'ii~ant.
cedure women whose husbands never smoked were
compared to women from each of the 2 groups in
which the husband smoked; cigarettes. The number of
lung cancer deaths in each matched diad was adjusted
to the proportion of persons for each group and
summed over all groups to give an "adjusted ' number
of lung cancer deaths. Variances were computed for
each of the matched groups and summed over all
matched groups, and' probabilities were computed under
the null hypothesis of observing no differences. The
results of this analysis are shown in table 5. The ratio
of adjusted lung cancer deaths in women whose
husbands smoked less than 20 cigarettes a dayy to those
in women whose husbands never smoked was 1A7. The
comparable ratio for women whose husbands smoked
20 or more cigarettes a day was 1.04. None of these
differences were statistically significant (P70;05)..
DISCUSSION
Data from the two prospective studies reported in
this paper indicate that the age-adjusted mortality rate
for lung cancer in nonsmoking men, 35-89~ years old
was between 12 and 19/100,000 in the 1950's and
1960's. The observed rate for women was about 131
100,000. The rate may actually be about 10% less
because lung cancer in nonsmoking women raay be
over-reponed on death certificates. The lung cancer
rates shown in table 1 may be slightly different from
those shown in other publications because different
years, age groups, or methods of standardization were
employed.
The rates for male and female nonsmokers by age
group in this analysis were in about the same range as
that of the 1958 rates for nonsmokers in Haenszel's
report of a 10% sample of death certificates in the
United' States (17, 1B): The 1966-68 estimates derived by
Enstrom from several sources are not directfy com-
parable because of a different classification of non-
smokers ("never smoked cigarettes") (3); The male rates
in the period 1968-72 are about one-half those reported
by Enstrom for active Mormons in 1968-75 (19).
Enstrom defined active Morm:ons as a cohort that can
be considered "almost entirely as white males who
never smoked," and he used: this cohort to serve as the
nonsmoker lung cancer rates in the 1968-75 period "in:
lieu of recent national mortality data on nonsmokers."
The mortality rates for lung cancer in: both male and
female nonsmokers by, 5-year age groups showed no
consistent trends over the period in this study.
Long-term effects of passive smoking are difficult to
establish because of the problems in classification. It
may be misleading to classify a women as a passive
smoker or not on the basis of her husband's smoking
habit. Wives of nonsmokers may be more exposed! to
cigarrtte smoke of others than wives of cigarette-
smoking men; wives of smokers may be very little
exposed to; the cigarette smoke from their husbands or
others. In addition, 13% of the women nonsmokers
who died of lung cancer in the ACS study reported that
they were previously married, and the classification of
their exposure to their husbands' smoking may not be
pertinent.
In autopsy studies of cigarette smokers, there was a
dose-related spectrum of histologic findings, including
basal cell hyperplasia, metaplasia, and cell5 with atypi-
cal nuclei in the mucosa of' the tracheobronchial tree
that may lead to invasive carcinoma. In contrast,,
advanced histologic changes in specimens from the
tracheobronchial tree, such as lesions with six or more
cell rows, lesions having 50% or more cells with
aty;pical nuclei, and' carcinoma in situ, were found in
less than 0.1% of the slides of nonsmokers (20). Since
there is such little variation in the appearance of these
histologic changes in nonsmokers of different age, sex,
and residence, it seems doubtful that those nonsmokers
who had been heavily exposed to cigarette smoke from
others in their lives could have had many more
precursor lesions for the development of lttng cancer
than nonsmokers not so exposed. Therefore, there is
evidence from, these studies that passive smoking cannot
play more than a very small rolt in the development of
lung cancer.
Mortality ratios for male smokers of less than 10
dgarrttes a day compared to those of nonsmokers
range from: 2 to I in Japan to nearly 5 to 1 in the
United States. Mortality ratios in women are even
lower. It appears unlikely on a biologic basis, therefore,
that wives with husbands who smoke 20 or more
cigarettes a day can have mortality ratios that approach
those of regular cigarette smokers.
To obtain data on passive smoking in nonsmoking
women, an epidemiologic study shoul& be specifically
designed to measure their exposure as accurately as
possible. This is very difficult to do. Neither the
Japanese study nor the ACS study was designed to
obtain definitive information on passive smoking.
Data for lung cancer risks in occupationally exposed;
nonsmokers compared to nonexposed nonsmokers art
JNQ. VOL 66. NO 6. JUNE 199'
zo~3,s21,7s

pltl! Garfink.l
not very extensive. One study showed an increased risk
in heavily exposed asbestos workers on the basis of a
~ small number of cases (21).
tl
It would be interesting to continue studtes of lung
cancer trends in nonsmokers over a long period of
time, but,the major public he2lth problem in lung
lancer is With cigarQtte srnokeis. Cigarette smokers who.
-Are occupationally exposed' to asbestos have a greatly
elevated risk compared to the risk among cigarette
smokers not so exposed (21),. Lung cancer rates are
rising at an alarming rate in women who smoke
cigarettes. Educational efforts should focus on smoking-
cessation programs for these groups and particuularly
on persuading young pe+ople not to stan. Even if the
estimates from this analysis are in error and there was
a slight increase in lung cancer trends in nonsmokers,
it did not appear to be an important problem in the
overal' picture 6or the time period of this study.
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