Philip Morris
Significance of Nicotine, Carbon Monoxide and Other Smoke Components in the Deyelopment of Cardiovascular Disease
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- Castelli, W.P.
- Kannel, W.B.
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- 1005052801/3146
- 1005052801-3146 Background Material for Working Meeting: Research Needs on Low-Yield Cigarettes 800609-800611
- 1005052805
- 1005052806-2824 Biomedical Abstracts
- 1005052825-2840 Chemistry,Pharmacology and Toxicology Abstracts
- 1005052841-2856 Behavioral Abstracts
- 1005052857
- 1005052858
- 1005052859-2870 'tar' and Nicotine Content of Cigarette Smoke in Relation to Death Rates
- 1005052871-2882 Some Recent Findings Concerning Cigarette Smoking
- 1005052883
- 1005052884-2888 Toward Less Hazardous Cigarettes
- 1005052889-2890
- 1005052891-2900 Less Harmful Ways of Smoking
- 1005052901
- 1005052902-2907 Heart Rate and Carbon Monoxide Level After Smoking High-, Low-, and Non-Nicotine Cigabettes A Study in Male Patients with Angina Pectoris
- 1005052908-2921 Smoking, Carbon Monoxide and Arterial Disease
- 1005052922-2925 Clinical Investigations Hemodynamic Effects of Smoking Cigarettes of High and Low Nicotine Content
- 1005052926-2929 Effect of Non-Nicotine Cigarettes and Carbon Monoxide on Angina
- 1005052930-2933 Comparsion of Increases in Carboxyhaemoglobin After Smoking 'extra - Mild' and 'non - Mild' Cigarettes
- 1005052947
- 1005052948-2955 the Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Recent Trends
- 1005052956-2961 Effects of Smoking Modified Cigarettes on Respiratory Symptoms and Ventilatory Capacity
- 1005052962-2967 Changes in Bronchial Epithelium in Relation to Cigarette Smoking, 550000-600000 Vs. 700000-770000
- 1005052968-2970 Obsterical and Gynecological Survey Cigarette Smoking and Fetal Breathing Movements
- 1005052971
- 1005052972
- 1005052973-2987 19. Is Tobacco Smoking A Form of Nicotine Dependence?
- 1005052988-3012 14. The Analysis of Smoking Parameters: Inhalation and Absorption of Tobacco Smoke in Studies of Human Smoking Behaviour
- 1005053013 Section 6
- 1005053014-3035 17. Pharmacological and Psychological Determinants of Smoking
- 1005053036-3038 Changes in the Cigarette Consumption of Smokers in Relation to Changes in Tar/Nicotine Content of Cigarettes Smoked
- 1005053039-3048 Proceedings of the Tobacco and Health Conference
- 1005053049-3072 Cigarette Smoking As A Dependence Process
- 1005053073-3076 Pharmacological and Psychological Determinants of Smoking.
- 1005053077
- 1005053078-3091 Selective Reduction of Tumorgenicity of Tobacco Smoke. 11. Experimental Approaches
- 1005053092
- 1005053093
- 1005053094-3097 the Limiting Factors in Understanding the Natural History of Tobacco Smoke Effects in the Lung
- 1005053098-3102 Carbon Monoxide As A Contributor to the Health Hazards of Cigarette Smoking
- 1005053103-3113 Smoking and Cardiovascular Diseases
- 1005053114-3120 Carcinogens, Cocarcinogens, and Tumor Inhibitors in Cigarette Smoke Condensate
- 1005053121-3133 Chemical Composition of Cigarette Smoke
- 1005053134-3145 the Case for Medium - Nicotine, Low - Tar, Low - Carbon Monoxide Cigarettes
- 1005053146
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William B. Kannel and William P. CosteUl
There is.now ample evidence to show that nicotine absorbed from inhaled
tobacco has acutetransient effects on the circulation which could explain many
of the observed epidemiologic features of the reiation of cigarette smoking to the
development of, cardiovascular disease. Its actions are eompatabte with a transient,
non-cumulative and reversible triggering effect operati ve in persons with an already
compromised coronary, circulation. The high carboxyhemoglobin values generated
by cigarette smokers also fitsthis pathogeneticconceptuali¢ation by causingiiurther
impairment of oxy,geniudlization by ischemic tissuessupplied by critically narrowed
.
76 1250
369
SIGNIFICANCE OF' NICOTINE, CARBON MONOXIDE AND1 OTHER'
vessels and catechol stimulated by nicotine. In additioni efifects of nicotine on
platelet adhesiveness and other clotting factors coutd, impair flow in the micro-
vasculature or promote thrombosis,in near occludedl arteries. Evidence which in*
criminates ciprettes in the process of atherogenesis isiess substantial and does not'
explain as well'the epidemiological relationships of the cigarette habit to the oc-
currence of cardiovascular disease. Ailthough it is quite likely that severe exposuree
to carbon monoxide promotes atherosclerosis in the heavy smoker, it is more like-
ly that the acute precipitating effects of nicotine and carbon monoxide are re-
sponsible for the excess risk in the cardiovasculardisease-prone smoker. Giving up,
smoking has been shown to reduce risk,by about,half so there is much to be gained
by abolishing the use of cigarettes or in reducing their nicotine and carbon mon-
oxide content.
There should no, longer be any lingering doubt that cigarette smoking is as-
sociated with an, excess rate of occurrence of cardiovascular morbidity and mor-
tality (11-3). Because the relationship is independent of adl the known contribu-
tors to cardiovascular disease and since giving up the habit is associated with a
substantial reduction in risk,:a causal relationship seems likely (4-7),. A number
of'pathogenetic mechanisms have been postulated toexplain how cigarettesmok-
ing induces cardiovascular illness (4, 8, 9)L The action of cigarette-induced acute
and chronic nicotine and carbon monoxide poisoning has been most prominent-
ly incriminated by investigators (2, 8, 9;10),.
Mechanisms postulated to explainihow cigarettes promote cardiovascular dis-
ease must be consistent' withi the known facts aboutthe relation of'the cigareite
smoking habit to the development of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases.
These facts may be illustrated fromiFrarninghartt data and summarized as follows:
The risk is dose related to the number of cigarettes smoked per day (Fig. 1) .
Althoughi there is some evidence to suggest otherwise (6, 1'2) the risk may not be
related to the duration of the cigarette habit (Fig. 1!).
~~SIV10'~KE~~CIO'MiPO'NENTS IN THE DEYELOP~MiE'NT'O'~F~
CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE
I

KANNEL A(WDCASTE'Llll.
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f IG. 1. Risk of wronary, attacks according to number of cigarettes smoked pen day vs. dura-
tfon of ci=arette habit-Fiunlngham Study. ._.._ ,_ -
The risk of coronary heart disease in the ex+smoker may be as low or lower
than that of'ttiose:who never smoked (4). Giving,up the habit is associated with
a, prompt reversal to lower risk, although some contend that the benefits acuue
more gradually (9, 11,,12)',. In any event, those who quit the habit have been
found to have only haif'ttie risk of those who continued to smoke (Fig. 2). The
:o
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I
sWoMMa. w.ar
RtK!!OM Oo0*.
snwow trwoe
O.HO
o.Po. o.ar,
o: m. OJ P6'
0229
Tr~IU[' l.lt :..T 107
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FIG. 2. Incidenee of'eotonary attacks among ciyaretta smokers accordfn; to subsequent clt-
arette habit-h1ee~45-74 at exam: Framingham Study-1S yeariollow-ip.

SMOKE COMPONENTS AND CVD 371
benefits of' quitting wane with advancing age and no longer accrue beyond age
65' (7);.
The contribution of the cigarette habit to coronary risk in women is feeble
(Table I) and in both sexes diminishes with advancing, age (Table I I'). In men ciga-
rettes are significantly related to all cardiovascular endpointsexcept possibly con-
gestive heart failure. For women in the Framingham cohort only in brain infarc-
tion is there no apparent association (Table IIl).
TABLE I
Average Annual Incidence of Coronary Attacks Per 10,000 Persons at
Risk According,to Cigarette Habit. Men and Women 45-74
Framingham Study: 18 Year Follow-Up
Men Rate ot Coronary Attackt
No.ol'Ggorettes
Per Dny Person- Yrs.
At Rlah No.oLNtw
Coronary Attakcs
Crude Smoothed Actual
Age-Adjusted Age-Adjusted
None 11552 85 ' 74 70.6 67.0
Uhder 20 3938 40 1102 90.7 98.3
20 S3'24 71 133 116.3 137:1
pver 20: 5096 59
Women 116 148.8 125.6
None 22802 70 311 27.4 27.6
Under 20 6986 22 31' 3IIS 35.4
20 3754 10 27 38'.6 33:5
Over 20, 1610 5' 31 452 29.3
T-Vaiue-For age:adJusted rate: Men = 4.77
Women = 1.50
Source: Framingham Monographi#30,.
TABLE 11
Cae ucient forthe Regression of Incidencrof'Coronary Attacks"'on
Number of Cigarettes Smoked Daily According,to Age in
Each Sex. Meniand Women 45-74 Framingham
Study: 18 Year Follow-Up
Men Women
45-54' 33-64 65-74 45-54 SS-64 65-74
Regressfbn Coetflcients. .342' .227 .039 .313 .123 -.142
T-Values 3.73 295 .0-27 1.54 0.76 -0.47
N:umberofEvents 92 121 45 22 SO 36
'Goronary attacks: Manifestations of coronary heart disease other than angina pectoris.
Source: Framingtiam Monograph #30.

,.
372
KANNEL AND CASTELia
TABLE' III
Regression of Incidence of Major Cardiovascular Diseases onPlumber of'
Cigarettes SmokedlDaily: Men andlWomen 45-74 Framingham
Study: 18 Year Follow-Up
'
Msn
Regression
Coronary
Brain
Intermittenr'
Congestive
Totol
Coefficient Attacks Infarction Claudlcation Failure C: V' Olteast
BivarJate' .255 .318 .375' .080' .209
Multivariate*" .300 .373 .410 .148' .237
Multivariate
ThValues
5.48
3.011
4.67'
1.61
'6,27
Women.
Bivariate
.173
-.096
374I
.253'
.063
Niultivariate" .227, -.0'1'3 .5'07 .314' .134
Multivariate
T-ValUes
193
-0A0
3.431
2.46
191
'Bivariate: Number of cigarettes and age.
*Muitivariate: Number of cigarettes andagepius-systoiic blood pressure,serum cholesterol,
glucose tolerance, ECG-LVH. -
Source: Framinghami Monograph `TM`301
The impact of the cigarette habit is stronger, for some cardiovascular end-
points (9) (such as occlusive peripheral arterial'disease) than others (sucfi as con-
gestive heart failure) (Tables II,,III): In coronary heart disease:the relationship iss
strong, for sudden death, moderate for myocardial infarction and non-existent
for angina pectoris (Table IV'):
,
TABLE IV
Incidence of Specified'Clinical Manifestations of Coronary Heart Disease
According,to Cigarette Habit at Each Biennial Exam. Men 4'5-64
Framingham Study: 18'Year Foll'ow-Up
N'o.,of Cigarettes Averoge Annual,Lncidemce Per 1G1,000-Age-AdJusted
Per Day Each Coronary Myocardial Coronary Sudden Angina
Biennial Exam. Attocks' InfactJon'' InsuffJciencyt Dieath PecrorJt*
None 50 32 8 ~ 8 43
Under 20 83' 53 10 25 35
20
Over 20 118 ' 81' 7 20 35
1106 68 14 22 51 1-4 Q'
tNotstatisticaiiy significant at P=<.05.
P- C.05
'~T
~1
**P - <.01
.
~
Source: Framingham Monograph #'30. ~
~
V.1 .
The relationship of the cigarette habitto cardiovascular disease is independ-
ent of the other majwr contributors to risk and it is most ominous in those pre-
disposed by other risk factors (Table Illly Fig. 3);

SMOKE COMPONENTS AND CVD 373'
1
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4
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0
70.e
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333
t
FIG. 3. Probability of, developint, cardiorascular ditsase in,a'. years--clPrette smokers vs.
nonsmokers accord(ng to Ibvel of'other risk factors-40 year oldlmen: Framineham Stud!y-
1E year, followwp.
SYlfOtlC Iu000:
rllcseNRl0g .1!I! I.ssWrol4OLtaRCna' rs1M. 3311'
.
QilUWtaNfOl[wIK9 0' O. 0 tc0-lx" 0 0 0
SO{ACG YOMO0IWM M0. a~'
T0
so
so.
40
30
20
10
There is littVe$, if any, increased risk associated with cigar and!pipe smoking,,
presumably because the tobacco is not inhaied (4).
While there is a strong association in most' affluent' societies, there is a, lack
of'demonstrabie effect of cigaretrtes in some low coronary incidence populations
(Fig. 4). .
= M.
E
l
/
' ~.
i ~.
._
FIG. 4. Probability of'CHO occurrence In two years according to amount of cigarette unok-
ing-Framin2hamMonolulu and'Puert'o Rlco-Men 45-65.

374
KANNEL A~MD CASTELLI
The postulated pathogenetic mechanisms must' be consistent with these facts.
They must therefore. explain what appears to be an independent, transient non-
cumulhtive,,reversible triggering effect that appears to operate impersons with ani
already compromised arterial circulation in a fashion tharfavors sudden occllrsionn
of the circulation to the head, heart or limbs or promotes lethal cardiac dysrhyth-
mias (4; 8, 9) rather than one which primarily promotes the underlying athero-
scierotic process.
TOXIC PROPERTIES OF' THE CIGARETTE
The awesome number of'toxic substances have been isolated from the ciga+
rette (13; 14). Among the gaseous and'particulate substances released when ciga-
rettes are burned and inhaled are some which have been, demonstratedlto at least
acutelif affect card'iovascular, metabolism, function, and physiology (8,9,,13;14).
Foremost' amongst those identified are nicotine and carbon:monoxide (!8, 9, 1i0).
Apparently of lesser importance are heavy metals,,trace metalsnitrogen dioxide
and substances whichi provoke autoantibody and non-specific inflammatory re-
sponses (15). Cigarette smoke contains in the mainstream of the gaseous phase-
not only CO; but 2'50 p:p.m. ofnitrogen dioxide (or dinitrogen tetraoxide) sub+
stances of concern, to environmental' protection agencies. The safe level of this
gas (5' p.p.m.) is easily exceededby many cigarette smokers. Although this noxi-
ous gas has been incriminated in lungdisease,,no connection with cardiovascular
disease has been demonstrated.
Pernicious adverse mechanisms affecting, the cardiovascular system, which
can be invoked from the known properties of inhaled cigarette smoke include:
hemostatic effects, cardiodynamic influences, atherogenic results, and vasculo-
toxic or inflammatory responses (8, 9)',. These are: among the known cardiovas-
cular effects of nicotine and carbon monoxide which must brconsidered.
Nicotine
From 0:3-3.0 mg, of nicotine can be recovered' from smoke taken into the
mouth from a cigarette. The amount absorbed wilUvary from 5% in thosewho do
not inhale to 10096lin!the deep inhaler. A heavy smoker who inhales is subjecting
himself to the influence of 50-100 mg of nicotine daily ('8).The principal effecrof
this absorbed nicotine appears to be to stiinulatrcatecholamine production and
release of noradrenaline from local stores (8, 9),. This prodwces sympathetic over-
activity provoking cardiodynamic effects manifeste&by a rise in heart rateblood
pressure, cardiac contractile force, cardiac output and; as a result, rnyocardial
oxygen demand ('8; 9). Inihealthy persons this is compensated for by a compensa-
tory increase in coronary blood flowbut in those with atherosclerotic stenosed
coronary arteries this may not occur and ischemiaresul!ts (I8). Indeed,aftera myo-
caidial' infarction, smoking may cause cardiac output and stroke volume to fall'
('1 G)'. The high myocardial oxygen consumption of the cigarette smoker may-not be
entirely explained on the basis of the 'nicotinc-catecholamine induced enhance-
ment of inechanical' activity of_' the heart and about half; may result from the
metabolic stimulation oPthe high concentrations of free fatry acid's generated!(17).

SMOKE COMPONENTS AND CVD
375.
In contrast tioi these eardiodynatnic effects, few atherogenic effects of nico-
tine have beeni convincingly demonstrated. Even when adfninistered'in amounts
relatively. higher thanithe nicotine uptake of a human smoker, no atherogenic ef-'
fects have been shown inianimals ('18)', Some,, but no't' all studies, have foundia il
rise in serum cholesterol in cigarette smokers (8), On the other hand, an increas+e li
in circulating free fatty acids has been consistently demonstratedlwhich may later
result in increased triglyceride, or possibly, cholesterol levels ('1'9)'. Such athero+ ~
genic effects as there are seem minor, reversible and the findings arenoz consis- ~i
tent. More importantly, either as a consequence of the rise in free fatty acid or ' i
as a direct effect of noradrenalin, myocardral irritability is increased which may I,
predispose to sudden death (8, 9, 20). ,. ' IIIII
Nicooine-inducedl release of catecholamines also has hemostatic effects and
can increase platelet stickiness and aggregation thereby accelerating thrombus I
formation in damaged vessels, possibly contributing to the development of athero-
mata andl enhancing thromboembolic sequelae in personswith advanced athero-
sclerosis (9, 2'1'),. The~smoking of a cigarette has been shown to increase the plate-
(et's' response to a standard aggregating stimulus. This phenomenon,, which is i
specifically related to the inhalation of'tobacco smoke is not' related to carbon
monoxide or to the particulate : matter in the tobacco smoke. Nor does it' appear
dependent on the rise in plasma free-fatty acid provoked by cigarette smoking
(22'): Evidence to date suggest that thys platelet response is a direct consequence
of either the niiaotine itself or the catecholamine response: it elieits (22): This
smoking-induced potentiatuon of platelet aggregation could' go a long, way to-
wards explaining premature occlusions of stenotic arteries in cigarette smokers.
Other hemostatic effects claimed in about 100 papers since 1963 include: de-
creased fibrinolysis, decreased clotting time, change in the rateoPinitiaV clot for-
mati©n, maximum clor tensile strength andiclo't'retraction (23)s
In the brain,,nicotine as well as smoking,inereases cerebraliblbod flmw while
at the same time decreasing the arteriovenous oxygen difference, leaving the cere-
bral metabolic oxygen rate unchanged (24). -
. i
Cor6o
Nl
de l
n
onnxr
Cigarette smoke, in addition to nicotine, also contains from 2.7-6.0% carbone monoxide which when
inhaled exposes the smoker to 400-500 p.p.m. of CO, a,
level eight times that permitted ini industry (I8). The hazards of CO have been
recognized for many years, but only recently connected with the cigarette habitt
which now appears to, be the chief cause of chronic CO intoxication. The CO
levels encountered in city traffic range from 20-200 p.p.m.exposingnpn-smokers
to a T,3'S o carboxyhemoglobin content. Such an exposure is trivial compared to
that self-induced by smoking.
Because of its greater affinity for hemoglobin than ozygenj CO converts from
3-1596 of smokers' hemoglobin to carboutyhernoglobin. Carboxyhemoglobin not
only decreases the-0i capacity of the blood but also al!ters itsoaryhemogliDbin dis-
sociation curve so that oxygen is released'more reluctantly to the tissue because
of tighter binding,(25, 26). Carbon monoxide may aVso interfere with tissye oxy-
gen metabolism because of its high affinity to myoglobin (27,28) which normally
t

376 KANNEL AND CASTELLI
takes part in the transfer of oxY$en from hemoglobin to tissue mit+achondria and'o also plays a role
in storageof oxygen. Through hypoxia CO acts to increase the
permeability of'the~ end©theliumi allowing deposition of cholesterol (29). No sig-
nificant change! in arterial lipid synthesis has been observed (30),. Thus by mecha-
nisms different than those inditced by niicotineCO may also adversely affect the
cardiovascular system. The vessel' damaging effecu of carbon monoxide and hy
poxia which allow deposition of cholesterol in the vascular in!tima has beernex-
perimentallydemonstrated in animals (31I32).
All the atherogenic changes'attributed to carbon monoxide-increased endo-
theliali permeability, accumulation of lipid in the vessel wall and anatomical
changes-can be produced by hypoxia alone.
Severall investigators have found increased'hematocrits in bothi experimental
animals and man as a result of cigarette smoking (33,, 34', 35). This has been
shown to result from an increased!eryt'hrocyte mass.(3~6) and may at times reach
polycythemic proportions (37). This smoker's erythrocytosis is evidence that.
chronic carbon monoxide exposure results in significant tissue hypoxia. In the
Framingharn cohort, within the normal range of hemoglobin, valltes,,risk of cere-
bral infarction was found to be proportional to blood hemoglobin concentratiom
in both sexes ('Fig; 5),. Higherfiemoglobin valuerwere also foundito beassociated
withi higher, diastolic blood pressures (38): Eff.ects of carbon monoxide on the
brain, other than lethargy and obtundedlsensorium are notwell described.
®
! IN
i
FIG. S. Risk of cerebral lnfarctlon (9!6 year follow-up) according to antecedent hemoglobin
and blood pressure status-Men andlwomen3l0-6II at entry; Framingham Study.
More important than its atherogenic effects, the carbdn monoxide inhaled
with tobacco smoke reduces the amount of oxygen available to vital.organs such
as the heart at a time when its work and demand for oxygen has been stimulatedd
by nicotine (25): In, normal persons carbon monoxide will increase coronary
blood flow as nicotine does. On the other hand, like nicotine it may produce
myocardial hypoxial in the presence of severe coronary atheromatosis: This has
been demonstrated clinically in humans by Aronow who showed ttiat'lessezercise
is needetd to induce angina after smoking (39). This effect is'very likely a, conse-
quence of'CO, induced impaired oxygen utilization in the presence of'critically
l

SMOKE COMPONENTS'ANiD CVD 377
narrowed vessels which cannot dilate inia heart'which at the same time has beenn
stirmuiated by nicotine.
V1laldletol have provided some epiderniologicai data directly connecting,car-
boxyhemoglbbin levels: and the frequency of coronary heart disease (40)L It is
hard to adduce! from this whether the risk is actually related to the CO per se or
to the daily dose of other substances simultaneously inhaledlwithtobaccosmoke.
Hmwever, experimental studies show that smokinginduced elevation of car-
boxyhemoglobin may adversely affecrcardiac work performance, induce ischemic
ECG changes and dysrhythmias in persons with clinical or subclinical coronary
disease: The carboxyhemoglobin value may also be a more objective means of
determining risk in relation to smoking,thana personal history of cigarette use.
A maximum of'about 15% carboxyhemoglobin has been recorded in heavy
cigarette smokers. Most pipe and cigar smokers who.presumably do not inhale,
achieve a 1-2% carboxyhemoglobin level. However, converted cigarette smokers
who take up cigars often continue to inhale and may indu+ae carboxyhemoglobin:
levels of: 20% or more, a level capable of prodtacing symptomatic acute and
chronic effects (41).
PATHOGENETIC IMPLICATIONS
Thus, there is ample experimental evidence w show that' the nicotine ab
sorbed from inhaled tobacco has acutetransient effects on the circulation which
could explain many of the observed epidemiological features of'the relation of
cigarettes to cardiovascular disease. Its actions fit fairiy wellff with a transient,
non-cumuliitive, reversible triggering effect operative in persons with an already
compromised coronary circulation. The observation of high carboxyhemoglobin
values in cigarette smokers also fits this pathogenetic.conceptualizatipn since this
could further impair oxygen utilization by ischemic tissues supplied by critically
narrowed'vessels and catechol,stimulated by nicotine. Likewise,,effects ofrico-
tine on platelet' adhesiveness andi other clotting parameters could'inflWence flow
in rnicrovascul~ture or promote thrombosis in near occluded'vessels precipitating
vascular catastrophes.
Evidence which incriininates cigarettes in the process of atherogenesis (lin-
volviing nicotine and carbon monoxide)~ seems to, these reviewers Iess substantiaV
and does not explain as well the known relationship of'the cigarette habit to the
occurrence of cardiovascular disease. It is qµite:likely that severe exposure to car-
bon monoxide (in the very heavy cigarettesrnokeror inhaling cigar smoke) pro-
motes at'herosclerosis, but it is more likely that the triggering or precipitating ef-
fects of nicotine and carbon monoxide are responsible for the bulk of'the excess
risk in the smoker. It is more reasonable at' this point to interpret the cigarettee
habi't as playing,a contributory rather than a primary roie in cardiovascular'dise'ase.
This is not the case in emphysema and lung cancer.

.
N
378
KANNEL AND CASTELLI'
THE'RAPEWT'IC~~ AND PREVENTIVE IMPLICATIONS
Aside from abstention, soJutions to the cigarette health problem may be
sought in producing, a safer cigarette-i.e., one with~less nicotine and tar and one!
which generates less carbon monoxide. The possible beneficial effect of a less
harmful cigarette or of giving up the! habit is difficuh to estimate precisely in the
absence of data from a eqntrolled clinical trial. If one examines the attributable
risk for cigarettes (i.e., incidence of C-V' disease in smokers minus non+smokers
divided by incidence in smokers) we would attribute as much as 33% of cardla
.vascular cases to the cigarette habit (Table V). If the effect were cornpletely in-
dependknt (as it seems to be) and ?otally and permanently reversible (as it may
be) one would expect a 33% reduction in~cardiovascular mortality from cessation
of smoking. While there is no secure basis for making such predictions data, from
Framingham seem to indicate that the estimated benefitsmay not be unrealistie.
TABLE V
Attributable Risk for Cigarette Smoking,in.Cardiovascular Disease.
Men 45-74'. F'ramingham Study: 18 Year Fo(lowJJp. 1
t
CardlowscuJar Dlfcase
Cigonttts Awerogr Annual'Jncidencr Per 10,000
Per Day' 45-54 SS:-64 6d+74' All Aqa (yl djusted)
None 79 203' 293 150
20 172 3'37' 3011 223
Difference 93 134 . E 73
A'tuibutable Risk (%) S4' 40' 3 33
Coronary Attacks
Gqoretres Averoge Atinual'lncidence Per 10,000
Per Day 45-54 55-64' 65-74 AJI Agu (Adjusted)
None 33 90 ": 14S'1 71'.
20 109 169 163' 116
D(fference 76 79 1d' 4S'
Attributable Risk (96) 70 47 11 39
For coronary attacks one would estimate from the attributable risk (Table V) a
399o reduction should occur and this is in fact close to what was observed (Fig. 2).
Thus; this is not a triivial'. issue and there is something substantialito be gained in
identifying,the harmful!ingredients in cigarettes and removing them or abolishing
cigarette use.
The problem of devising,a safer cigaretteisapparently'tecFinologicalVyachiew
able without great, difficulty. Getting the public to use them may be a more dif-flicult matter
since the harmful ingredients may weil'be the ones that give the
habitual smoker his satisfaction. Turner eto/ fiound thatonichanging to-very low
I .
t
