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Vol. XXX No. 41 Pages 2481-2592 • Oct. 7, 1972 The 1972 Special Election Report Presidential Race by State Profiles of All House Districts Major Issues • Regional Summaries Names, Ages and Occupations of Candidates EXTRA COPIES TO CLIENTS ........ $ 5 each AVAILABLE TO NON-CLIENTS ...... $10 each COPYRIGHT 1972 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC. 1735 K Street. N,W • Was~ington. DC20006 • 1202! 296-6800 TI54253304

TABLE OF CONTENTS General Introduction ................... 2483 South Outlooks introduction ......................... 2485 Alabama ........................... 2486 Arkansas ............................ 2487 Florida ............................. 2488 Georgia ............................ 2491 Kentucky ........................... 2492 Louisiana ........................... 2494 Mississippi ........................... 2495 North Carolina ....................... 2497 Oklahoma .......................... 2499 South Caroffna ....................... 2500 Tennessee ........................... 2502 Texas .............................. 2503 Virginia ............................ 2507 South Senate Biographies Alabama, Arkansas .................... 2509 Georgia, Kentucky ..................... 2510 Louisiana, Mississippi ................... 2511 North Carolina, Oklahoma ............... 2512 South Carolina, Tennessee ............... 2513 Texas, Virginia ....................... 2514 Midwest Outlooks Introduction ......................... 2516 Illlnois .............................. 2517 Indiana ............................ 2520 Iowa ............................... 2522 Kansas ............................. 2523 Michigan ........................... 2525 Minnesota ........................... 2528 Missouri ............................ 2530 Nebraska ........................... 2531 North Dakota, Ohio ................... 2532 South Dakota ........................ 2535 Wisconsin ............................. 2536 Midwest Senate Biographies Illinois, Iowa ......................... 2538 Kansas, Michigan ..................... 2539 Minnesota, Nebraska .................. 2540 South Dakota ........................ 2541 East Outlooks introduction ......................... 2542 Connecticut, Delaware .................. 2543 Maine .............................. 2544 Maryland ........................... 2545 Massachusetts ........................ 2546 New Hampshire, New Jersey ............. 2549 New York ........................... 2552 Pennsylvania ......................... 2559 Rhode Island ........................ 2562 Vermont, West Virginia ................... 2563 East Senate Biographies Delaware, Maine ..................... 2565 Massachusetts, New Hampshire ........... 2566 New Jersey, Rhode island ............... 2567 West Virginia .......................... 2568 West Outlooks Introduction ......................... 2569 Alaska, Arizona ...................... 2570 Cafifornia ........................... 2.571 Colorado ........................... 2576 Hawaii ............................. 2577 idaho .............................. 257'8 Montana ............................ 2579 Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon ........... 2580 Utah .............................. 2581 Washington ........................... 2582 Wyoming ............................. 2583 West Senate Biographies Alaska, Colorado ..................... 2585 Idaho, Montana ...................... 2586 New Mexico, Oregon .................. 2587 Wyoming ............................. 2588 Presidential Vote by Groups, 1956-68 .... 2584 References to 1972 CQ Political Coverage ............................ 2589 Presidential Vote Returns, 1956-68 ...... 2590 This special supplement was prepared by Associate Editor Mercer Cross, OJiver W. Cromwell, Alan Ehronhalt, Martha V. Galleon, Peter A. Harkness and Carol Moore of the editorial staff and Albert W. Caron Jr., Prudence Crewdson, Andrea W. Loewenstein and Warden Moxley of the research staff. The maps were prepared by Howard Chapman, art director. TI54253305

Campaign1 "72 THE 1972 ELECTIONS: OPTIMISM VS. APPREHENSION With the Nov. 7 elections just around the corner, the biggest unanswered question confronting partisans in all 50 states is this: How long will President Nixon's coat- tails be? Republicans, buoyed by continued high showings for the President in public and private opinion polls, hope for a presidential lands|ide of sufficient proportions to elect large numbers of [~epublicans to lesser offices-- possibly even a majority of both houses of Congress. Democrats, discouraged by the lagging performance of theix standard-bearer, South Dakota Sen. George Me- Govern, are fighting to hang onto their majorities in the Senate, the House and the governorships. Polls have shown a wide divergence this year between the expected vote for President and fo~ the lower offices, indicating the potential for ticket-splitting in record numbers. But landslide presidential victories in the past have, nine times out of 10 in the course of American history, been accompanied by gains for the winner's party in Congress. (Weekly Report p. 1819) Numerous Changes. Landslide or not, both houses of the 93rd Congress are assured of significant numbers of new members when the first session begins next Janu- a~. Voters will elect 18 governors, 33 senators and all 435 members of the House. Ten of the governors are Demo- crats, and eight are Republicans. Nineteen of the senators are Republicans, and 14 are Democrats. Gubernatorial Elections State Arkansas Delaware illinois Indiana Kansas Missouri Montana New Hampshire North Carolina North Dakota Rhode Island South Dakota Utah Vermont Wash'mgton West Virg~nio Incumbent Dale Bumpers (D) Russell W. Peterson (R) Richard B. Ogilvie (R) Edgar O. Whitcomb (R)** Robert Ray (R) Robert Docking (D) Warren E. Hearnes (D)** Forrest H. Anderson Waiter R. Peterson (R) Robert W. ~:off William L. Guy (D)* Frank Licht (D)* Richard F. Kneip (D) Preston Smith (D)I" Calvin L. Rampton (D) Dearie C. Davis (R)* Danlel J. Evans (R) Arch A. ~oore Senate Elections State Incumbent Alabama John Sparkman (D) Alaska Ted Stevens (R) Arkansas John k. McClellan (D) Colorado Gordon AIIott (R) Delaware J. Caleb Boggs (R) Georgia David H. GombrelJ (b) Idaho Len B. Jordan (R)* Illinois Charles H. Percy (R) Iowa Jack Miller (R) Kansas James B. Pearson (R) Kentucky John Sherman Cooper touisiana Allen J. E~lender (D)** Maine Margaret Chase Smith (R) Massachusetts Edward W. Brooke (R) Michigan Robert P. Griffin (R) Minnesota Walter F. Mondale (D) Mississippi James O. Eastland (D) Montana Lee Metcalf (D) Nebraska Carl T. Curtis (R) New Hampshire Thomas J. Mclntyre New Jersey Clifford P. Case (R) New Mexico Clinton P. Anderson (D)* North Carolina B. Everett Jordan (D)~" Oklahoma Fred R. Harris (O)~" Oregon Mark O. Hatfield (R) Rhode Island Claiborne Pell (D) South Carolina Strata Thurmond (R) South Dakota Karl E. Mundt (R)* Tennessee Howard H. Baker Jr. (R) Texas John G. Tower (R) Virginia William B. Spong Jr. West Virginia Jennings Randolph (D) Wyoming Clifford P. Hansen (R) • ° Died Democrats control the Senate, 55 to 45. A net Repub- lican gain of six seats--flve if a Republican vice president still has the tie-breaking vote--is needed for control of the Senate. Some observers consider this a definite possibility. Far less likely, said most sources in Congres- sional Quarterly's nationwide survey, is Republican control of the House. In the 92nd Congress, the Democrats have 254 House members; the Republicans have 177, and there are four vacancies--two held most recently by Democrats and two by Republicams. A net shift of 41 seats to the Republicans ~s needed to produce a majority in tl~e next Coagres~. Oct. 7, 1972--PAGE 24~33 T!54253306

In~roducfion - 2 Representatives Not Returning As of Oct. 1, a total of 57 House members, either had announced they would not seek re-election, had been defeated or had died. ~mb~r Watkins M. Abbitt (D Va.) Thomas G. Abernethy (D Miss.) James Abourezk (O S.D.) Elizabeth Andrews (D Wayne N. Asplnall (D Colo.) Walter $. Boring (D Nov.) Page Belcher (R Okla.) Jackson E. Botts (R Ohio) Ray Blanton (D Tenn.) Frank T. flow (R Ohio) James A. Byrne (D Pa.) John W. Byrnes (R Wis.) Patrick J. Cutlery (D ta.) Clifford D. Carlson (R Emanuel Celler (D N.Y.) William M. Calmer (D Miss.) William S. Conover 11 (R Pa.) William P. Curlln (D Ky.) John Dowdy (D Texas) Florence P. Dwyer (R N.J.) Ed Edmondson (D Okla.) Edwin W. Edwards (D t.a.) Nick Galifianakis (D N.C.) Cornelius E. Gallagher (D N.J.) Edward A. Garmatz (D Md.) Charles H. Griffin (D Miss.) G. Elllott Hagen (D Go.) Durward G. Hall (R Me.) Seymour Halpern (R N.Y.) William D. Hathaway (D Maine) W, R. Hull Jr. (D Me.) Charles Raper Jonas (R N.C.) James Kee (D W.Va.) Hastings Kelth (R Mass.) Alton Lennon (D N.C.) Arthur A. Link (D N.D.) Speedy O. Long (D La.) James A. McClure (R Idaho) William M. McCulloch (R Ohio) Jack H. McDonald (R Mich, John L. McMillan (D S.C.) George P. Miller (D Calif.) E. Bradford Morse (R Mass.) Thomas M. Belly (R Wash.) Alexander Pirnle (R Richard H. Poff (R Va.) David Pryor (D Ark.) Roman C. Puclnski (D III,) William E. Ryan (D N.Y.) James H. Scheuer (D N.Y.) John G. Schmitz (R William Uoyd Scott (R Va.) H. A~len Smith (R Calif.) William L Springer (R IIh) John H. Terry (R N.Y'.) F~etcher Thompson (R Go.) J. Irvieg V~ol|ey (R Po.) Reason far L~aving Retiring Retiring Running far Senate Retiring Defeated for renaminat;on Defeated for renomination Ret;rlng Retiring Running for Senate Retiring Defeated for renomination Retiring Retiring Retiring Defeated for renominatian* Retiring Defeated for nomination Retiring Retiring Retiring Running far Senate Resigned to become governor Running for Senate Defeated for renomlnat~on Retiring Retiring Defeated for renomination Retiring Retiring Running for Senate Retiring Retiring Defeated for renominotion Retiring Retiring Running for governor Retiring Running for Senate Retiring Defeated for renomination Defeated for renomination Defeated for renomination Resigned to became United Nations under secretary Retiring Retiring Retired to become judge Running for Senate Running for Senate Defeated for renomination Defeated for renomination Running for Senate Retiring Retiring Retiring Running for Senate Retiring Regardless of the outcome of the congressional races, at least eight newcomers will be elected to the Senate, and 57 to the House. Those are the numbers--h~gher than usual--of incumbents who will not be returning for one reason or another. The lists contain several aging Demo- cratic committee chairmen and ranking Republican com- mittee members. Most of their replacements will be younger men and women, inevitably less committed than their predecessors to the staid and time-worn ways of doing business in the national legislature. Two Democratic Senate committee chairmen will be absent from the next Congress. Allen J. Ellender .(La.), 81, Appropriations Committee chairman, died before the state primary. Clinton P. Anderson (N.M.), 76, chairman of the Aeronautical and Space Sciences Committee, is retiring after four terms. Six senior House Democrats who chair committees w~ll not be returning. Four were defeated in primaries, and two are retiring. Defeated were Wayne N. Aspinall (Colo.), 76, Interior and Insular Affairs; Emanuel Celler (N.Y.), 84, Judiciary; John L. McMillan (S.C.), 74, Dis- trict of Columbia, and George P. Miller (Calif.), 81, Science and Astronautics. The retirees are William M. Calmer (Miss.), 82, Rules, and Edward A. Garmatz (Md.), 69, Merchant Marine and Fisheries. One ranking Republican on a Senate committee, John Sherman Cooper (Ky.), 71, of Public Works, and nine on House committees are retiring. Democratic Obstacles. The survey found an almost solid wall of pessimism among state observers over McGovern's chances of victory, even in those states that usually can be counted on to vote Democratic. The pessi- mism was qualified in some states by claims that the McGovern campaign would catch hold there before elec- tion day and reverse the gloomy prospects. But the atmo- sphere in late September caused Democratic candidates in all parts of the country, and particularly in the anti- McGovem South, to turn their backs on the top of the ticket in order to ensure their own survival. Third Parties. An acknowledged boon to the Nixon- Agnew ticket, again particularly in the South, is the absence of Alabama Gay. George C. Wallace (D) as the American Party presidential candidate. Heading the party's slate is Rep. John G. Schmitz (R Calif.), who was defeated in a primary for re-election to his House seat. Only one independent, former Louisiana C~v. John J. McKeithen (D 1964-72), a candidate for the Senate in Louisiana. is considered a potential threat to the major- party nominees. This supplement contains the available names of independent and minor-party candidates. An updated list will be published in the Oct. 28 Weekly Redistricting. One of the principal causes of retire- ments and primary election defeats of incumbent repre- sentatives was the redrawing of district boundaries because of the 1970 census. Some incumbents found themselves in new districts; some, in combined districts with other incumbents of their own or the opposition paxty. More common were districts where the number was the only thing that changed, not the basic territory. Five states gained seats as a result of redistricting: California. five; Florida. three; Arizona, Colorado and Texas, one each. Nine states lost seats: New York and Pennsylvania, two each; Alabama, Iowa. North Dakota, Ohio, Ten~es~e, West Virginia a~d W~sco~sin, orte each. 4 PAGE 24~4--Oct. 7, L~2 i TI54253307

Campaign '72 THE SOUTH: VOLATILE HUB OF REPUBLICAN HOPES The rise of Republicanism in the South will be put to its severest test ever in 1972. In no other region are the opportunities so great for the Republicans to gain seats in the Senate and House. Nowhere else is the McGovern- Shriver ticket so unpopular, forcing Democratic candi- dates to dissociate themselves from their leaders in order to survive. Nowhere else are so many incumbents vacat- ing their seats, increasing their parties' vulnerability to turnover. Senate. Twelve of the 13 southern states will elect senators, the largest number of any region. Eight of the seats are now filled by Democrats, four by Republicans. Six of the Democratic seats and three of the Republican seats appear susceptible to change. In five of the 12 states, susceptibility stems from the fact that incumbents will not be returning: • Georgia's freshman appointee, David H. Gambrell (D), was defeated in a primary by State Rep. Sam Nunn. U.S. Rep. Fletcher Thompson (R) is Nunn's opponent in the general election. Nunn is favored, but the race could go either way. • Kentucky's John Sherman Cooper (R) is retiring. His seat could go to either party. A closely matched battle is in progress between a Republican former governor, Louie B. Nunn (1968-72) and the Democratic majority leader of the state senate, Walter (Dee) Huddleston. • Louisiana's Allen J. Ellender (D) died in July, before the primary, leaving the Democratic field open to his opponent, State Sen. J. Bennett Johnston Jr. Johnston is thought to have an advantage, but he is threatened from two sides: Ben C. Toledano (R), a New Orleans lawyer, and former Gov. John J. McKeithen (D 1964-72), who entered the contest as an independent after Ellender's death. • North Carolina's B. Everett Jordan (D) was defeated in a primary by U.S. Rep. Nick Galifianakis. Now Gali- fianakis has a stiff challenge from a far-right Republican television editorialist from Raleigh, Jesse A. Helms. • Oklahoma's Fred R. Harris (D) is retiring after one term. Competing for his seat are U.S. Rep. Ed Edmondson (D) and former Gov. Dewey F. Bartlett {R 1967-71). Ed- mondson may have an advantage over Bartlett, but both parties have more than their share of internal dissension. Four incumbent senators are in varying degrees of re.election trouble: • Alabama's John J. Sparkman (D}, opposed by former Postmaster General Winton M. Blount {R) and a black third-party candidate who could cut into the Democratic vote. • Tennessee's Howard H. Baker Jr. (R), opposed by U.S. Rep. Ray Blanton (D). • Tex~s' John G. Tower (R), opposed by Barefoot Sanders (D), a former ~si~tant U.S. attorney general. • Virginia's William B. Spong Jr. (D), opposed by U.S. Rep. Will,am Lloyd Scott (R). The three remaining incumbents are expected to have an easier time of it: John L. McClellan (D Ark.), James O. Eastland (D Miss.) and Strom Thurmond (R S.C.). Florida is the one southern state that has no Senate election. House. The South made a net gain of two House seats after the decennial census. Florida added three repre- sentatives, the second-largest gain behind California's five. Texas added one. Alabama and Tennessee lost one each. The region will elect 121 representatives. Its existing 119 seats are now divided among 86 Democrats, 31 Republicans and two vacancies (one for each party). House races in the traditionally Democratic region are more volatile than in other areas this year, and changes in party lineups appear to be distinct possi- bilities everywhere except in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Virginia. Redistricting has thrown two incumbents, Dem- ocrat Graham Purcell and Republican Robert Price, together in Texas' 13th District. The race is a tossup. Another Texas district, the new 18th, is expected to make history by sending a black woman, State Sen. Barbara C. Jordan, to Washington. Governors. All three governorships to be filled, in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas, are now in Demo- cratic hands. Democrats lead in all three races. Freshman Dale Bumpers of Arkansas, a McGovern supporter, is expected to have little trouble winning a second two-year term. Robe~ W. Scott of North Caro- lina is ineligible to succeed himself to a second four-year term, and the race to replace him may be close. Preston Smith of Texas was the only governor to lose in a primary this year. Dolph Briscoe, the Democrat who beat him, is favored to win in November. The South ~ SENATE SEAT ~GOVERNORSHIP IBOTH NEITHER Numbe~ el Hoose s~at$ |o be lilled Oct. 7, 1972--PAGE 2485 TI54253308

South Outlooks - 2: Ala. ALABAMA (Primary results, Weekly Repor~ p. 1038) PRESIDENT McGovern will be lucky ~f he receives 15 percent of the popular vote in Alabama, according to some observers. Most Wallace Democrats are supporting Nixon, and the governor has said he cannot vote for the McGovern- Shriver ticket. The only question about the presidential race is how it will affect the close campaign for the Senate. SENATE Dem~rat. Incumbent John J. Sparkman, 72. Won fourth full term in 1966 with 60.1 percent of the vote. Republican. Winton M. Blount, 51, Montgomery, a construction executive, former president of the U.S, Chamber of Commerce and former U.S. postmaster general. National Democrat. John L. LeFlore, 61, Mobile, a retired letter carrier, civil rights activist and assistant editor of a black newspaper in Mobile. Prohibition. Jerome B. Couch, Oxford. Conservative. Herbert W. Stone, Homewood. Campaign. Republicans feel they have one of their best opportunities to pick up the Senate seat of Spark- man--a veteran of 26 years in the Senate and chairman of the Banking and Currency Committee. The main issue is George McGovern. Blount is waging an aggressive, person-to-person campaign, appearing at factory gates during shift changes, telling workers, "I'm Red Blount and I'm running for the U.S. Senate against that fellow McGovern and his crowd." The Republicans have smoth- ered the state with billboards listing dozens of reasons why voters should support Blount. The Blount forces also are inferring that Sparkman is too old either to campaign very hard or to serve a fifth term in the Senate. Sparkman is stressing his seniority, carrying with him a notebook listing the federal aid programs he has secured for each of Alabama's 67 counties, The state's senior senator has been identified with the national Democratic Party in the past (running as the vice presi- dential candidate with Adlai E. Stevenson in 1952). But a determined shift to the Wallace right apparently has diffused much of the backlash sentiment against him in recent years. Now he is dissociating himself from his party's national ticket, openly disagreeing with Mc- Govern on busing, amnesty, national defense and other issues. The campaign is one of the best-financed in the country. Blount himself is a multi-millionafre with good financial connections (a mixed blessing in Alabama, where the Republican's "country club" image could hurt him). And Sparkman, as chairman of the Banking and Currency Committee, can count on strong support from bankers worried that if Sparkman were defeated--and the Democrats retained control of the Senate--the com- mittee would be headed b.v Sen. William Proxmire (D Wis.), an anathema to b~_king interests. By late September, Sparkman was given a Might edge in the close race, lint that co~dd change before election PAGE 24~--4:tct. 7, !@72 day. The senator needs a strong endorsement from Gov. George C. Wallace (D}; Blount is hoping for a visit from Nixon. And there are two more factors. The first, which should help the incumbent, is the pla6ement of the Sen- ate race on most ballots. While Alabama allows straight- ticket voting with the turn of one lever, the presidential race will be placed at the bottom of the ballot in most counties, with the Senate race at the top. That should encourage more ticket-splitting. But the second factor, which should work in Blount's favor, is the candidacy of John LeFlore, the black civil rights activist from Mobile. Although LeFlore is not expected to poll a significant percentage of the vote, observers agree that whatever support he does receive will be votes that would have gone to Sparkman. HOUSE 1st District (Southwest--Mobile). Dominated by thriving port city of Mobile. City also has sizable alumi- num, chemical, lumber, paper, pulp industries. Military installations--especially Brookley Air Force Base-- have important impact on economy. Blacks make up 33 percent of population. Votes for conservative Demo- crats and Republicans. Republican. Incumbent Jack Edwards, 44. Won fourth term in 1970 with 60.6 percent of the vote. Democrat. O. W. McCrory, 29, an Atmore pharma- cist. National Democrat. Thomas McAboy, Mobile. Campaign. McCrory is a total unknown who feels that "we've got to get this country back on the road toward a Christian, anti-Communist, patriotic rebuilding." Edwards, who has a conservative voting record and keeps in close touch with his constituents, is considered a sure winner. 2rid District (Southeast--Moatgomery, Dothan). A combination of old 2nd and 3r~l Districts. Mont- gomery, state capital, has considerable government employment, both state and federal, and is site of major Air Force base. Montgomery City and County combined contain 34 percent of district's population. Dothan is retail and wholesale trading center. Indus- tries in district include lumber products, furniture, tex- tiles, paper. District contains pa~t of state's Piney Woods section and portion of Black Belt. Blacks consti- tute 30 percent of population. Conservative Democratic, has also supported conservative Republicans. 1Republican. Incumbent William L. Dickinson, 47. Won fourth term in 1970 with 61.4 percent of the vote. Democrat. Ben C. Reeves, 36, Eufaula, Barbour County district attorney. National Democrat. Richard Boone, Montgomery. Conservative. Llewellyn B. Garth, Montgomery. Campaign. Because of Democratic areas added through redistricting, Dickinson may have a tougher time winning re-election this year. {The new district's resi- dents voted 49 percent Democratic to 35 percent Repub- lican in 1970.) He has a strong opponent in Reeves, who is identified with Wallace; Reeves comes from Wallace's home county and is married to the governor's cousin. The candidates di£fer little on the issues; both favor increased military strength, freedom-of-choice schools and strong cir.-control laws. and both oppose extensive foreign aid. Dickinson is given the edge, although it may be close. l TI54253309

The old 3rd District, much of which has been included in the 2nd, has been represented by Mrs. George W. Andrews (D) since the death of her husband in December 1971. The d/strict has been eliminated, and she is re~iring. 3rd District (Eaat--Anniston, Phenix City). Based on old 4th District, lost Rirmingham suburbs and gained several counties on south from old 3rd, including Russell County (Phenix City). A rural-small town dis- trict made even more so by loss of Birmingham suburbs. Cotton, livestock are main products. Textiles are an important product in both Anniston, Phenix City. Blacks make up 31 percent of population. Traditionally con- servative Democratic. No incumbent. Democrat. Incumbent William Nichols, 54. Won third term (in 4th District) in 1970 with 83.7 percent of the vote. Republican. Robert M. Kerr, 51, Wedowee, a farmer and retired Navy petty officer. National Democratic. John Ford, Phenix City. Prohibition. James P~ Connell, Oxford. Campaign. Nichols is campaigning on economic is. sues--taxes, imports that rob the nation of jobs, and inflation. He says Nixon's moratorium on busing "didn't go far enough" and supports a constitutional amendment. He should have little trouble defeating Kerr, who is un- known in the district. 4th District (North central--Gadsden). A rural agricultural area north of Birmingham, stretching across state from Georgia to Mississippi. Poultry, cot- ton, livestock are main agricultural products. Small plants throughout district make electrical equipment, tires, steel, textiles, chemicals, fertilizers. Blacks were never very numerous in northern part of state and make up only 8.6 percent of district's population. Usu- ally Democratic. Democrat. Incumbent Tom Bevill, 51. Unopposed for third term in 1970 in the 7th District. Republican. Ed Nelson, 32, a Fort Payne attorney. Prohibition. Daisy Williams, Boar. Campaign. Bevill is a certain winner. 5th District (North--Huntsville). Huntsville's rapid growth is largely due to space age; city is site of large NASA facilities, Redstone Arsenal. TVA facilities are important to economy. Cotton and livestock are raised. Usually votes Democratic. Democrat. Incumbent Robert E. Jones, 60. Won 13th term in 1970 (in the 8th District) with 84.8 percent of the vote. Republican. Dieter J. Schrader, 35, a Huntsville attorney. National Democrat. Shirley Irwin, Huntsville. Caml~aign. Jones, the dean of the Alabama House delegation, is known for staying in close touch with his constituency. The voters are expected to reward him with a 14th term. 6th District (Birmingham). Birmingham is known as steel-making city, with attendant large blue-collar population. Coal mines, railroads also employ large numbers. Republicans have been doing well in Birming- ham over past few years, including election of popular mayor. Blacks constitute 30 percent of the district's population. Republican. Incumbent John Buchanan. 44. Won fourth term in 1970 with 60.1 percent of the vote. Democrat. State Rap. Ben L. Erdreich, 33, Birm- ingham, an attorney. South Outlooks - 3: Ala., Ark. National Democrat. A1 Thomas, Birmingham. Conservative. Dan Scott, Birmingham. Prohibition. Edna Bowling, Birmingham. Campaign. Exdreich is running what he calls a per- sonalized campaign, in much the same style that won him a seat in the state legislature in 1970. He is criticizing Buchanan for his votes against education, health, emer- gency employment and social welfare programs. Despite Erdreich's aggressive campaign, Buchanan is heavily favored to win. He has run against moderate state legislators before and had no trouble beating them. 7th District (West central--Tuscaloosa, Birm- ingham suburbs). Urbanized areas around Be~emer, in Jefferson County and Tuscaloosa form heart of dis- trict. Steel, iron are important in Bessemer. Tuscaloosa is site of University of Alabama and has plants making rubber, chemicals, fertilizers. Textiles, lumber are also of importance. Southern part of district is heavily black; district as a whole has largest black proportion of any in state--38 percent. Remains conservative Democratic. Democrat. Walter Flowers, 39. Won second term in 1970 (in 5th District) with 75.9 percent of the vote. National Democrat. Lewis Black, Greensboro. Conservative. Dr. Hal Radue, Birmingham. Campaign. With no Republican opposition, Flowers is expected to defeat Black and the others by a land- slide. ARKANSAS (Primary results, Weekly Report p. 1264) PRESIDENT Nixon is expected to carry Arkansas comfortably this year, but Democrats are hopeful that the result will be closer than in many of the other southern states. There remains considerable Democratic loyalty in Arkansas-- Wallace carried it four years ago, but Humphrey drew a higher percentage than in any other Wallace state. And Gov. Dale Bumpers, the first progressive Demo- crat to govern Arkansas in nearly a generation, is publicly backing the South Dakota senator. SENATE Democrat. Incumbent John L. McClellan, 76. Won fifth term in 1966 without opposition. Republican. Wayne H. Babbitt, 44, a North Little Rock veterinarian. Campaign. In 30 Senate years and six campaigns, this is the flint time McClellan ever has had a Republican opponent. Babbitt is running hard but is not expected to deny McClellan the term he promises will be his last. The real problem for McClellan was the Democratic primary. in which he was forced into a runoff by Rep. David Pryor and appeared to be Finished until a rousing runoff cam- paign brought him home 23,000 votes ahead. The Pryor vote is also Babbitt's best opportunity, if he can draw votes from the blacks and moderate whites who formed the basis of PD, or's strength. Babbitt has been seeking black votes, but is limited by the fact that he is a convervatlve, a Nebraska native who resembles Midwest-style Republicans more than the moderates who joined the Arkansas party under former Gov. Winthrop l~ekefetler (R 1967-71 ). Oct. 7. 1972--PAGE 2487 TI54253310

South Outlooks. 4: Ark., Fla. A good campaigner, Babbitt has augmented his per- sonal efforts with three full-page "open letters" to Mc- Clellan in three of the state's largest newspapem. He raises the question of McCellan's advanced age, which Republicans believe is Babbitt's single best issue against hifn. But party regulam admit that Babbitt is not well- organized and that he is finding it difficult obtaining the money he needs to pursue McClellan further. Local politicians feel that Babbitt could make headway by re- kindling the resentment Pryor Democrats felt toward McClellan in the primary. But most of the Pryor voters are lifelong Democrats, and the problems involved in winning them over make Babbitt's challenge a long shot at best, GOVERNOR Democrat. Incumbent Dale L. Bumpers, 47. Won first term in 1970 with 61.7 percent of the vote. Republican. Len E. Blaylock, 53, Perryville, former state welfare commissioner. Campaign. Bumpers, after emerging from obscurity in 1970 to win his first term by a wide margin, appears likely to win his second by at least as much. Blaylock was a key man in the administration of former Gov. Winthrop A. Rockefeller (R 1967-71), the man Bumpers defeated. Sources describe Blaylock as an exceptionally competent administrator but a poor campaigner. Blaylock criticizes Bumpers' administration of state government, charging that he mishandled a 1971 reor- ganization plan and that he is indecisive. Blaylock has imported a California consulting firm to handle his cam- paign, but he appears to have more than his match in Bumpers, who is naturally talented on the campaign trail and who has emerged from his fLrst term without serious scars. Few observers expect a close race even if Nixon wins easily in Arkansas. HOUSE 1st District (East--Jonesboro, West Memphis). A largely rural agricultural area. West Memphis is sub- urb of fast-growing Memphis, Tenn. Cotton is mainstay of economy, grown throughout Mississippi River delta. Blacks form 23 percent of population. Remains Demo- cratic in local and congressional elections. Democrat. Incumbent Bill Alexander, 38. Won second term in 1970 without opposition. No Republican candidate. 2rid District (Central--Little Rock). Little Rock is governmental, commercial, cultural center of state and is most important influence in district. Besides white- collar employment of capital city. there is also some diversified industry in district--aluminum, watches, industrial controls, clothing. Leading agricultural crops are cotton, soybeans, livestock, rice. Republicans have some localized strength, but Democrats still prevail in congressional elections. Democrat. Incumbent Wilbur D. Mills. 63. Won 17th term in 1970 without opposition. No Republican candidate. 3~1 District (West--Fort Smith, Fayetteville). Contains most of Arkansas' mountainous Ozark region. Poultry. fo~l p~ocessing are mo~t important eco.~omic • ctivitie~. Fwyetteville i~ ~ite of Uaiver$ity of Arkansas. PAGE 248~---Oct. 7, 1972 Republican strength in Ozarks is being reinforced by de- fection of conservative Democrats in southern part of district. Republican. Incumbent John Paul Hammerschmidt, 50. Won third term in 1970 with 66.7 percent of the vote. Democrat. Guy W. Hatfield, 65, Rogers, a retired actor. Campaign. Hammerschmidt's first election to the House in 1966 broke the Democratic Party's historic hold on this district, and the seat is not likely to change hands in the near future. Hammerschmidt's conservative views have increased his popularity to the point where Demo- crats no longer run top-name candidates against him. Hatfield, educated as an architect and a civil engineer before he switched to acting, has never run for public of- fice before. He claims the support of Comedian Groucho Marx, who he says is a close personal friend. 4th District (South--Pine Bluff). A rural agricul- tural area. Cotton, rice, livestock, soybeans are main products. Paper and wood products are a major industry. Thirty-one percent black population. Usually votes Democratic. Democrat. Arkansas Attorney General Ray Thorn- ton, 44, Sheridan. No Republican candidate. Campaign. Incumbent David H. Pryor left this seat to challenge McClellan in the Democratic Senate pri- mary. FLORIDA (Primary results, Weekly Report p. 2330, 585) PRE~DENT With the exception of 1964, no Democrat has carried Florida for President since 1948. Observers in the state seem to be nearly unanimous that this year will not be an exception. Many of the state's prominent Democrats-- former Governors Millard Fillmore Caldwell (1945-49), Charley E. Johns (1953-55), Farris Bryant (1961-65) and Haydon Burns (1965-67) and Mayor David Kennedy of Miami--have either indicated displeasure with Mc- Govern or outright support of Nixon. Gov. Reubin Askew (D), once considered by McGovern as a running mate, has ruled out any campaign effort on McGovern's behalf, saying he will concentrate on the re-election of a Demo- cratic Legislature. HOUSE Ist District (Northwest--Pensacola, Panama City). A rural-small.town agricultural area whose economy is heavily dependent on several large military installations, both Air Force and naval. Agricultural products include cotton, peanuts, livestock. Fishing, tourism also important. Some small industry, including textiles, wo~d products, paper, pulp. Unlike southern portions of state, area remains much like Old South areas of adjoining Alabama. Georgia. It votes conserva- tively regardless of party--for Goldwater in 1964 and Wallace in 19~8. Democrat. Incumbent Robert L. F. Sikes, 66. Won l~th term in 1970 with 80.2 percent of the vote. No Republican eamlidate. TI54253311

2nd District (North--TalIahassee, Gai~esville). A rural agricultural area, part of Old South section of state. Tallahassee is state capital and site of FIarida State University. Gainesville is a fast-growing univer- sity community, home of University of Florida. In vicin- ity of these two cities, there is little industry, but unl- varsities and state government generate considerable white-collar employment. Cotton, fruit, tobacco grown. Traditionally Democratic and conservative, with some liberal voters around universities. Democrat. Incumbent Don Fuqua, 39. Won fifth term in 1970 without opposition. No Republican candidate. 3rd District (Northeast--Jacksonville). Most of Jacksonville plus rural Nassau County. Jacksonville is major Atlantic port south of Norfolk, Va. It is also im- portant and growing insurance, banking center. City has extensive rail. truck lines. Mixture of blue-collar and white-collar workers. Votes conservatively, with some liberal strength among blacks.. Democrat. Incumbent Charles E. Bennett, 61. Won 12th term in 1970 without opposition. Republican. John F. Bowen, a Jacksonville elec- trical contractor. Campaign. Bennett is a conservative, a philosophy well suited to his district. He has strong personal popularity in the district and is not expected to have any difficulty returning to the House. Bowen, his opponent, is a political unknown. 4th District (Northeast--Daytona Beach). Agri- culture, tourism, recreation are dominant factors in economy. Industrial production is mainly food-process- ing, meat-packing, pulp and paper. Some Republican territory was removed from southern portion of district as well as some conservative Democratic counties across central Florida. District is now centered on Atlantic Coast and is marginal politically, with Democrats given an edge. Also contains some beach communities border- ing Jacksonville. Democrat. Incumbent Bill Chappell Jr., 50. Won second term in 1970 with 57.8 percent of the vote. Republican. P. T. (Bud) Fleuchaus, 45, a Daytona Beach oral surgeon. Campaign. Republicans have hopes of capturing the district because of its conservative nature and the attrac- tiveness of their candidate. Fleuchaus is conducting an aggressive campaign and is reported to be making a strong impression. But Chappell is well organized and has con- solidated his strength among Democrats in the district. He is favored to keep his seat, but an upset is not ruled out. 5th District (West central--Parts of Clearwater and Orlando). A new district taking in several small but fast-growing mid-Florida counties. On west, district takes in part of St. Petersburg metropolitan area, in- cluding part of Clearwater. On east, district ~akas in portion of Orange County, including part of city of Or- lando. Citrus products and vegetables are grown. Or- lando has some electronics and missile-related industries. Republicans are generally given advantage. Republican. Jack P. Insco, 42, New Port Richey, a former congressional aide, or Charles E. Rainey, 40, Clearwater, chaixman of the Pinellas County Commis- sion. Winner was to be determined in an Oct. 3 runoff. Democrat. State Sen. William D. Gunter Jr., 38, Orlando. 5ou~h Outlooks - 5: Fla. Campaign. When the district was originally drawn, with conservative Republican areas near St. Petersburg and Orlando included, most observers felt the Repub- licans would capture the seat. But the Democrats have come forward with a candidate who has achieved unusual success in strongly Republican areas. Gunter is an insur- ance executive and a state senator. He is touring the dis- trict in his "Guntermobile," stressing issues such as tax reform and a more active role for the public in govern- ment. He is a close friend of Sen. Lawton Chiles (D) and was one of Chiles' earliest supporters in his uphill campaign for the Senate in 1970. Insco, a former aide to U.S. Rep. William C. Cramer (R 1955-71), is on leave from his job as an aide to Rep. J. Herbert Burke (R). He has taken a very conservative stance in his campaign, at one time being quoted as saying, "I would charge Jane Fonda with treason and ship Ramsey Clark to North Vietnam to be attorney general there." Rainey, while also conservative, is considered more moderate. Observers believe Insco is likely to win the primary and rate the general election a tossup. 6th District (St. Petersburg). Besides city" of St. Petersburg, also includes some suburban communities north of city, including part of Clearwater. St. Peters- burg is famous retirement community. Also has some industry, notably food processing, electronics, commu- nications equipment. Overwhelmingly Republican. Republican. Incumbent C. W. Bill Young, 51. Won first term in 1970 with 67.2 percent of the vote. Democrat. Michael O. Plunkett, 32. a Clearwater attorney. Campaign. St. Petersburg has elected Republicans to the House since the victory of Cramer in 1954. Cramer ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1970 and was re- placed in the House by Young, whose percentage of the vote was one of the largest for any freshman that year. He should have no trouble being re-elected. 7th District (Tampa), City of Tampa contains 6t percent of district population. A major port city. Tampa manufactures computer equipment, cans. plastics, tele- phone equipment, cigars. Has large blue-collar element and many people of Spanish origin. They usually keep area in Democratic hands. Removal of some Republican areas in redistricting has helped Democrats. Democrat. Incumbent Sam Gibbons, 52. Won 5th term in 1970 with 72.3 percent of the vote. Republican. Robert A. Carter, 56, Tampa, a retired Air Force officer. Campaign. Gibbons has received support in the past from organized labor, which is strong in the district, and from Tampa's various minority groups, as well as the large majority of the district's voters, who are tradi- tionally Democratic. He should be able to turn such support into another victory over Carter, whom he de- feated in 1970. 8th District (West central--Lakeland, Sarasota). An area of citrus trees, resorts, cattle-grazing, vege- table-growing. Lakeland has high percentage of white- collar workers because of numerous citrus cooperative and service organizations. Conservative Republican areas along Gulf Coast have been removed, and Demo- cratic areas in Polk and Hiilshorough Counties have been added, making this increasing~" margirtal district more favorable for Democrats. Oct. 7, 1972--PAGE 2489 TI542S3312

Soufh Outlooks - 6: Fla. Democrat. Incumbent James A. Haley, 73. Won 10th term in 1970 with 53.4 percent of the vote. P~publlcan. Roy Thompson Jr., 44, a Sarasota con- sultant and retired Army officer. Campaign. Haley has had some close races, but the legislature treated him well in redistricting. He was weak in areas removed from his district. The addition of Demo- crats should also accrue to his benefit. But Republicans still can be expected to wage an aggressive campaign. A strong Republican presidential vote, expected in the district, could pull Thompson in. 9th District (East central'Part of Orlando, Mel- bottrne). A r~'idly growing area which includes Cape Kennedy facilities of NASA. The facility has attracted a sizable complex of missile-related industries. Citrus products, vegetables are leading agricultural products. Strongly Republican. Republican. Incumbent Louis Frey Jr., 38. Won second term in 1970 with 75.8 percent of the vote. No Democratic candidate. 10th District (South central--Fort Myers, Fort Pierce, part of West Palm Beach). A new district com- bining rapidly growing Gulf Coast retirement area, some urban areas along Atlantic Coast north of Palm Beach, large rural areas of south central Florida. Cattle, sugar, fruit a~e main agricultural products. Industrial products include chemicals, aircraft (Piper Cub). Rated a tossup politically, with Republicans strong on Gnlf Coast, conservative Democrats leading in interior. Republican. L. A. (Skip) Bufalis, 43, Palm Beach Gardens, an investment banker and former state senator. Democrat. Bruce J. Scott, 39, North Fort Myers, a Lee County commissioner, or Bill Sikes, 29, Clewiston, a former congressional aide. Winner was to he chosen in a runoff Oct. 3. Campaign. Bafalis is fairly wall known in the dis- trict because of his campaign for the Republican guber- natorial nomination in 1970. He ran third in the primary. He has since gone into a business partnership with former Gov. Claude R. Kirk Jr. (R 1967-71), who is cam- paigulng for him. Both Sikes and Scott are conservative, a political necessity in the district. Sikes is a business- man and former aide to Rep. Paul G. Rogers (D). Scott is well known in the Fort Myers area. A close race is fore- cast, with an edge given to Bafalis. 11th District (Southeast--Palm Beach, Boca Raton). Heavily populated Atlantic Coast tourist and retirement areas in Palm Beach County, with an arm extending down into northern Broward County and in- eluding Pompano Beach and part of Fort Lauderdale. Also includes some rural and agricultural areas toward Lake Okechobee. Lost several interior counties to new 10th District. Strongly Republican in most elections. but will support conservative Democrats for local offices. Democrat. Incumbent Paul G. Rogers, 51. Won 9th term in 1970 with 70.6 percent of the vote. Republican. State Pep. Joel Karl Gustafson, 35, Fort Lauderdale. Campaign. Rogers has repeatedly demonstrated his vote-getting abilities in strong Republican areas. His opponent has been a state representative since 1967 and is an attractive campaigner. Gustafson is reportedly strong in the Broward County-Fort Landerdsle portion of the district. With an especially strong Republican presi- dential vote expected in the area this year, Rogers will have to encourage ticket-splitting. The consensus seems PAGE to be that Rogers will have enough strength to pull through. 12th District (Southeast--Fort Lauderdale, Hel- lywood). Most of Broward County. A rapidly growing area of resort cities and some industry. Industrial prod- ucts include electronics equipment, pleasure boats, motors. Middle- to upper-income communities. Demo- cratic areas in north Dade County were removed by redistricting, making district more securely Republican. Republican. Incumbent J. Herbert Burke, 59. Won third term in 1970 with 54. I percent of the vote. Democrat. James T. Stephanis, 38, Fort Lauder- dale, a rancher and businessman. Campaign. Despite relatively close elections in 1968 and 1970, when his margin fell below 55 percent, Burke is favored to retain his seat this year. He lost some Demo- crats in redistricting, and an expected heavy. Republican presidential vote should further boost his stren~h. Ste- phanis is well acquainted with politics, having served as finance chairman for Democrat Earl Faircloth in his unsuccessful 1970 primary race for the gubernatorial nomination. 13th District (Northern Miami and suburbs). A new district, composed of northern tip of Miami and portions of suburban communities such as Opa Locka, Miami Shores, North Miami, North Miami Beach. Also includes a small southern tip of Broward County. Gen- erally middle-income area, with many residents retired northerners. A sizable number of Jews. Some industry, including water filtration devices, shoes, aluminum win- dows. Democrats are given edge. Democrat. State Sen. Lee Weissenborn, 43, North Miami Beach, or William Lehman, 58, a North Miami Beach auto dealer and former president of the Dade County School Board. Winner was to be determined in an Oct. 3 runoff. Republican. Paul D. Bethel, 52, a Miami writer. Campaign. This is a Democratic district, and the winner of the runoff will be favored in November. Weis- sanborn is considered a liberal; in the legislature he supported handgun control, a statewide kindergarten system, food stamps, tenant protection and increased taxes on corporate profits. Lehman. a more centrist candidate, has been stressing tax reform, Social Security benefit increases and rapid transit. Weissenborn may have been hurt by a controversy surrounding the alleged counterfeiting of some campaign literature in the first primary. Bethel is a conservative Republican who worked as an aide to Rep. John M. Ashbrook (R Ohio) in his primary campaign against President Nixon. He is a former foreign service officer and has been active in Miami's anti- Castro movement for 10 years. 14th District (Central Miami and suburbs). Bulk of Miami and Miami Beach plus some western suburbs. Many Jewish residents, often from New York City. Siza- ble numbers of Cubans. Retail trade, personal services, hotel trade are largest employers. Should remain Demo- cratic. Democrat. Incumbent Claude Pepper, 72. Won fifth term in 1970 without opposition. Republican. Evelio S. Estrella, 45, a Miami sales executive and realtor. Campaign. Pepper seems to have ensconced himself quite securely. It would be a major upset if he were to lose. F~rella, a Cuban immigrant, has been aeti~ in local TI54253313