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RET/JP/46J. DR. R.E. THORNTON. 13th J~nuary, 1976. I enclose • note entltled "The Product in 1980" which discusses, amongst o~heE things, the role of blofee~back cigarette s~king' Time has not permitted the complete development of all the Ideasl this could be done at • later date, if required. c.c. Dr. F. Hasl~. BAT Co TRIAL EXHIBIT 10,996

RET/Jp/46J. 9th January, 1976. THE PRODUCT IN 1980 This note is organised according to the foll~wlng scheme: I. Certain assumptions made - e.g. on company policy - are listed. 2. Some aspects of smoking motivation are reviewed. Relevant historical trends in the tobacco industry are reviewed. The potential of rival products and substitutes is assessed. 5. Conclusions. I. Assumptions 1.1 Whatever the company's business objectives may be, it is necessary to consider the future of the tobacco industry in the broadest context of "products" which result in "satisfaction" for the consumer. 1.2 The concept of the product in 1980 is most usefully examined for developed countries, but any conclusions reached may be applicable to other situations at a later date. 1.3 Although. changes in taxation systems related to tobacco might affect the conclusions reached in section 5, there is no way of .anticipating such changes. BAT Co LTD- MINNESOTA TOB.%CCO LITIGATION

- 2- 2. Smokin~ Motivation An understanding of smoking motivation is necessary if any forecasts are to be made of the effects of other factors on the smoking habit. To date, the theories due to Russell(1) are considered to represent the most comprehensive account of smoking motivation yet. offered, including a consideration of both commencing smoking and of the continuation of the habit. Implicit in Russell's theories are the existence of various segments of smokers, and of the importance of nicotine to a relatively large number of smokers, perhaps 80%. Russell's theories may be related to the idea that, for some smokers, there is a basic need to control levels of brain activity appropriate to the situation in which a subject finds himself. It is considered that there is a valid distinction between drugs acting on levels of brain activity and drugs acting on the state of consciousness. Nicotine (and.certain other stimulants and depressants) are considered to come into the former category while marihuana, L.S.D. and other hallucinogens are considered to fall into the second category. In support of this view it has been claimed, independently by two groups (2,3), that the arousal (EEG analysis} caused by nicotine cannot be distinguished from normal arousal. There are also a number of indications, e.g. Russell (4), and unpubllshed studies at Group R. & D. Centre, Southampton, that the smoking motivation of women differs from that of men: the nature of these differences may become clearer during the period 1976-1980. Historical Trends in the Cigarette Industry 3.1 Trends in tar and nicotine delivery per cigarette in the U.K. for the years 1965-1973 have been published (5}. If ~ese trends continue it is possible to predict the deliveries in the year 1980 (Fig. l}. The predicted deliverles are: Tar % 10mg; Nicotine % Img. The reductions in deliverles are presumed to be due to "league tables" resultlng from the activities of various pressure groups, and during the period up to 1980 increasing pressure is likely to be applied BAT Co L-r , -To .,cco Lrrl AT,OX

- 3- to limit the delivery of other compounds, especially carbon monoxide. . 3.2 Trends in the consumption of cigarettes (in terms of constant tar} have also been published (5). A similar extrapolation to that carried out in 3.1 suggests that, in 1980, the equivalent number of constant tar cigarettes smoked per annum will diminish to about 1,660 per annum. However, because of the l~w dellvery of actual cigarettes expected by 1980, the actual number smoked will not be greatly different from the period 1965-1975, although.some reduction (say 10%) seems most likely. (Fig.2}. 3.3 Trends in the consumption of cigars are also available (6) and suggest that a modest ~ncrease in the sales of these products can ~be anticipated (Fig. 3): even so, such products appear to most likely take only about 5% of th~ market. 3.4 It seems likely that smoking will become increasingly a socially unacceptable and working-class habit, as it was An the 1860s. "Men had to indulge in the practice out of doors or else ..... sneak away into the kitchen when the servants had gone to bed, and puff up the chimney"(7). In the 1840s the working classes accounted for 90% of tobacco consumDtlon ~7). A similar trend is setting in at the present time, as the followlng figures show: Men Women Registrar General's % Smoking % Smoking Soclal Class 1961 1973 1980t 1961 1973 1980% I. 53 39 31 46 26 14 . II 59 42 32 44 42 41 III 59 50 45 47 47 47 ALL 59 50 45 43 44 45 %Extrapolation of 1961-1973 trend. It has been confirmed by Philip Morris that upper-class smokers are more successful at quitting than are lower-class smokers (8}. BAT Co To ,. cco Lmc,.,'rlox

- 4 - 4. "Rival Prcduc~s 4.1 Alternative tobacco .products (to the cigarette); As pointed out by Russell (I), for.many smokers the optimum method of administering nicotine appears to be by smoking, this being related to the pulsed transmission of nicotine- .rich blood from the lungs to the brain (in about 7 seconds). This leads to numerous stimulus-response reinforcements and hence dependence on smoking. 'Cigar smoking (in which the nicotine is usually retained relatively inefficiently by buccal absorption)might therefore be considered to involve less dependence than cigarette smoking, while if nicotine is ingestedit travels to the liver and is metabollsed to cotinine, which is less pharmacologically active. Consequently it seems unllkely that other forms of tobacco usage will seriously rival cigarette smoking, and certainly not by 1980. This conclusion is in agreement with data presented in Section 3.3. With regard to other products, such as nicotine- containing chewing-gum, the prospects appear to be even dimmer. 4.2 Nicotine analoq~. Although a number of ~Icotlne analogues are known to have been syntheslsed, e.g. by B-A.T. (9), Imperial Tobacco (10) and others (II), it is n~t known that any have sufficiently interesting properties to become acceptable alternatives to nicotine itself. Furthermore, even if such a material were available now, it is unlikely that the necessary biological tests could be completed before 1980. 4.3 Nicotine substitutes. A technglo~ical forecast (12) has made the followlng prediction: introduction of new, safe drugs for mood control, crime reduction and personallty control, pro~ably within the next decade (1971-1981). A second fore- cast (13) suggests that drugs will be used to ameliorate specific conditions and control specific unwanted behaviour, although the period suggested is the early 1990s. If such drugs were developed, it seems probable that their use would affect the tobacco industry: however, it see~s unlikely that development of such compounds will occur before 1980. BAT Co L -D- Mixx :sm-.-x To .,cco LITm. .T OX

- 5 - 4.4 ~~S-~_~~- "Narcotic Plants" (14) lists some eighty species of plants containing hallucinogens, stimulants, inebriants and hypnotics. A French. paper, "Les Succ~dan~s du Tabac" (15), also discusses numerous plants which might conceivably replace nicotiana sp. as a smoking .material. Although a number of such materials have gained limited acceptance in some parts of the world, or in times of tobacco shortage, none of these materials appear to have achieved widespread success as a substitute, and none of them appear to have the popularity of tobacco. Since reservations might also be expressed on the economics of cultivating alternative plant products relative to tobacco, alternative plant products, are not considered a viable alternative. 4.5 Other druq~. For .the reasons stated in Section 2 it is not considered that other drugs in widespread use, notably mari~uana, are in direct competition with nicotine, although there may be some interaction between them, as there is between drinking and smoking. 4.6 Biofeedback. There is an increasing amount of evidence (16,17) that subjects can control their levels of brain activity, without recourse to drugs, if they are given information o~ the level of brain activity (biofeedback}. Results (as yet unpub- lished) obtained by Dr. Burman, working at St. Bartholomew*s Hospital, London (18), suggests that the behavlour of physiatrlc patients can be improved if they are trained in biofeedback techniques, and the doses of tranquilising dru~s can been reduced. This suggests that, for some groups of smokers at least, smoking could become red~dant and the effects obtained by biofeedback techniques. Furthermore, the smokers who would appear to be most susceptible to this alternative would seem ~o be the nicotine-dependent majority. At first sight, biofeedback might appear to offer less competition to cigarettes needed by "social" smokersT. Finally, there is #However, it should be noted that Dr. Burman's results suggest that only occasional practice with a biofeedback machine is required, and the anti-social elements of biofeedback training may be fairly low. BAT Co LTD- Mzxx so-r.,, Toe,. ,cco LITm. 'rlOy

- 6- the ~ossibility that biofeedback techniques might, in addition, permit subjects to obtain (desirable) altered levels of consciousness (16) without recourse to sccially unacceptable drugs. Initially, biofeedback techniques might also be used by anti-smoking clinics, and the cllnlcal use wf biofeedback has already been suggested in ~he editorial column of the British Medlcal Journal (19). 4.7 Tobacco substitutes. During the period 1975-1980, it seems likely that a number of tobacco substitutes will be introduced (e.g. Cytrel, N.S.M. and diluents such as. BATFLAKE), partlcularly in cigarettes intended to give low deliveries of tar and nicotine. 5. Concluslons (based on the U.K. market) 5.1 oThe total market will shrink. 5.2 The standard product (cigarette A) in 1980 will deliver 10mg tar, lmg nicotine. 5.3 This cigarette will be less universally popular than present cigarettes, and further fragmentation of the market will occur. 5.4 This will lead to a demand for a second type of cigarette, cigarette B, high nicotine, low everything else, lncluding • carbon monoxide. This cigarette has already been proposed by Russell (20) and may appeal t~ the more sophisticated, shrinking upper-class sections of the community. 5.5 As a variation on theme 5.4, there may be opportunities, for t~e same upper-class segment, for another cigarette, cigarette C, incorporating as many scientific design principles as possible, especially in the area of filter design. 5.6 There may be a d~mand for a suitable cigarette for another large market segment or fragment. Women smokers appear to BAT Co L-i-t)- Mixx :sor.a To . cco Lm AT OX

- 7 - be the most obvious segment to consider: cigarette D is proposed, essentially A aimed at a different segment.. 5.7 Taking into account that further fragmentation of the market may occur, there might also be opportunities for novel cigarettes of the CODEVAC type (cigarette E), as well as an expansion of the marked for a U.S. type cigarette (cigarette F). 5.8 There may be a reaction against the relatively low deliveries of the standardcigarette A, particular, ly if smoking becomes a predominantly working-~lass habit and the virtues of A are proclalmed by the higher soclai classes (as seems inevitable). This suggests that a cigarette G (something like Capstan Full Strength) may have some anti- e~tablishment appeal. 5.9 There Will be a continued and perhaps increased demand for an ultra-low delivery cigarette, cigarette H. This might appeal to health-conscious and social smokers. 5.10 Marketing will have to be re-orientated in the light of conclusions 5.1- 5.9, and because of a general tendency to move down the social classes. 5.11 The cigarette is llkely to account for the bulk ofthe tobacco-based activities, and it is assumed that the great majority, of cigarettes will have filter tips. Low delivery cigarettes may well include tobacco ~ub~itutes and diluents. 5.12 Biofeedback techniques seem to be the most probable threat to the cigarette, both as a means of stopping smoking • and as an alternative to smoking. BAT Co LTD- MI.XXESOTA TOBACCO LITIG.-XTION

REFERENCES Comer, A.K. "Comments on a Talk given by Dr. M.A.H.. Russell,. ." File 46J, 14.7.75. 2. Cheshire, P.J., et al. Experimentia, 1973, 71 (15.1.73). Eysenck, H.J., et al. ma~ c e" • p.54. Russet1, M.A.H., et el. 313. 5. Todd, G.F. "Effects of Smoking on Human Perfor- T.R.C. Review of Activities, 1967-1969, 6. Lee, P.N. J.R. Statist. Soc. A., 1974, 137, "Changes in Smoking Patterns in the U.K." T.R.C.. Occasional Paper I - 1975. "Tobacco Consumption in Various Countries". T.R.C. Research Paper 6, Fourth Edition, 1975. B.W.E. Al£ord. "W.D. & H.O. Wills and the Development of the U.K. Tobacco Industry, 1786-1965". Methuen, London, 1973. 8. Ryan, F.J., in "Smoking Behaviour: Motives and Incentives" (W.L. Dunn, Ed.). V.H~ Winston & Sons, Washington, 1973. 9. B-A.T. Report No. RD.953-R, 9.11~72. I0. N.M. Sinclair. D.Phil. ThesiS, University of Oxford, 1973. 11. Barlow, R.B., et al. Brit. J. Pha~acol. 39, 647, 1970. 12. Parker, E.F. Business Economist, Spring 1971, p.18. 13. Smith, M. New Scientist, October I0, 1974, p.90. BAT Co LTD- M xx :SOT., To . cco

- 9 - 14. Emboden, W. Narcotic Plants. Studio Vista, London, 1972. 15. Cuenot, A. "Les Succ4dan~s du Tabac", Journal d'Agriculture tropicale, XIV; (5-7), 1967, 1915 16. Karlins, M. and Andrews, L.M. "Biofeedback". Garnstone • Press, London, 1973. 17. Brown, B.B. "New Mind, New Body". Hodder & Stoughton, London, 1974. 18. Comer, A.K. "Visit to Dr. S. Burman". File 46J, 10.9.75. 19. "Biofeedback". British Medlcal Journal. Edltorial. 17.8.7~ 20. Russell, M.A.H. Post. Med. J., 1973, 49, 684. BAT Co L-rD- MIXXESOTA TO~.~CCO LITI~.aTIO.X