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- Alho, O.P.
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- Burge, H.
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A-16
investments in human capital and social resources, by
which income inequality may be related to health
outcomes. Finally, we considered the impact of income
inequality and changes in income inequality on
mortality trends."
"The degree of income inequality, defined as the
percentage of total household income received by the
less well off 50% of households, and changes in income
inequality were calculated for the 50 states in 1980 and
1990. These measures were then examined in relation
to all cause mortality adjusted for age for each state, age
specific deaths, changes in mortalities, and other health
outcomes and potential pathways for 1980, 1990, and
1989-91."
"There was a significarit correlation between the
percentage of total household income received by the
less well off 50% in each state and all cause mortality,
unaffected by adjustment for state median incomes.
Income inequality was also significantly associated with
age specific mortalities and rates of low birth weight,
homicide, violent crime, work disability, expenditures
on medical care and police protection, smoking, and
sedentary activity. Rates of unemployment, imprison-
ment, recipients of income assistance and food stamps,
lack of medical insurance, and educational outcomes
were also worse as income inequality increased. Income
inequality was also associated with mortality trends,
and there was a suggestion of an impact of inequality
trends on mortality trends."
[66] "Editorial: Understanding Sociodemographic
Differences in Health -- The Role of Funda-
mental Social Causes," B.G. Link and J.C.
Phelan, American Journal of Public Health 86:
471-473, 1996
"Several articles in this issue of the Journal docu-
ment associations between sociodemographic factors
and health-related conditions. Consistent readers of
the Journal will note that this is not an unusual
phenomenon."
"From one point of view, this repeated documenta-
tion of the association between sociodemographic
factors and health belies a distinct lack of progress and
indicates a major problem in the field of public health."
"But there is an important principle of social epide-
miology that suggests that we will never be able to, nor
ETS/IAQ REPORT, ISSUE 123
should we try to, turn our attention away from the
sociodemographic factors themselves. Put simply, this
principle states that societies shape patterns of disease."
"From this perspective, our continued attention to
sociodemographic factors is not a sign of stalled
progress, but rather a simple reflection of the fact that
societies continue to shape patterns of disease through
time and that it is the job of public health professionals
to stay vibrantly attuned to these processes."
"[H]istory gives credence to the somewhat startling
and counterintuitive notion that social patterns of
disease may persist despite effective interventions on
potent risk factors. We illustrate with the case of
socioeconomic status and health....[B]y the 1960s,
many of the factors previously identified as linking
socioeconomic status to disease had been addressed,
and one might have expected the association to weaken
and perhaps disappear altogether. But it has not.
Recent studies demonstrate an enduring or even
increasing association between socioeconomic status
and many disease outcomes."
"[T]he comparison of past and present risk factors
reveals an important fact: as some risk factors mediat-
ing the association between socioeconomic status_and
c'..sease were eradicated, others emerged. Consequently,
the association between socioeconomic status and
disease has endured."
"[W]e propose that such enduring associations
between sociodemographic factors and disease are
predictable and perhaps unavoidable, because many
social conditions are what we have called 'fundamental
social causes' of disease. As we define it, a fundamental
social cause involves resources like knowledge, money,
power, prestige, and social connections that strongly
influence people's ability to avoid risks and to mini-
mize tlie consequences of disease once it occurs.
Because of the very general utility of these social and
economic resourcz~s, fundamental causes are linked to
multiple disease outcomes through multiple risk-factor
mechanisms."
"In a dynamic system, fundamental causes are likely
to emerge. This is because the resources embodied in
fundamental causes can be transported from one
situation to another. Consequently, as health-related
situations change, those with the most resources are
best able to avoid diseases and their consequences.
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MAY 10, 1996
Thus, no matter what the profile of diseases and
known risks happens to be at any given time, those
who have greater access to important social and
economic resources will be less afflicted by disease."
[67] "Lack of Effect of Long-Term Supplementation
with Beta Carotene on the Incidence of Malig-
nant Neoplasms and Cardiovascular Disease,"
C.H. Hennekens, J.E. Buring, J.E. Manson, M.
Stampfer, B. Rosner, N.R. Cook, C. Eclanger,
F. LaMotte, J.M. Gaziano, P.M. R.idker, W.
Willett, and R. Peto, New England journal of
Medicine 334: 1145-1149, 1996
"Observational studies suggest that people who
consume more fruits and vegetables containing beta
carotene have somewhat lower risks of cancer and
cardiovascular disease, and earlier basic research
suggested plausible mechanisms. Because large ran-
domized trials of long duration were necessary to test
this hypothesis directly, we conducted a trial of beta
carotene supplementation."
"In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled
trial of beta carotene (50 mg on alternate days), we
enrolled 22,071 male physicians, 40 to 84 years of age,
in the United States; 11 percent were current smo' ers
and 39 percent were former smokers at the beginning
of the study in 1982."
"This large-scale, randomized trial among appar-
ently healthy, well-nourished men demonstrated no
statistically significant benefit or harm due to 12 years
of beta carotene supplementation in terms of malig-
nant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, or death.
Because of the long duration of the trial, these
findings are particularly informative, and the large
sample and narrow confidence intervals exclude even
a small overall benefit or harm due to beta carotene
with a high degree of assurance. However, for indi-
vidual end points such as stroke, myocardial
infarction, and particular types of cancer, the confi-
dence intervals are wider and do not preclude the
possibility of a small absolute effect. In view of the
slow development of many cancers, follow-up in this
and the other trials of beta carotene will continue
even though treatment has ceased, in case any benefits
or hazards become clear later."
A-17
"Factors that could, at least in theory, have produced
a false finding of no benefit or harm include an
inadequate dose of beta carotene or poor compliance
with the assigned treatment. The dose of beta carotene
used in the trial, however, placed participants in the
top few percentiles of the general population with
respect to usual intake, while minimizing noticeable
yellowing of the skin.... This intake is above the level
of dietary beta carotene consumption that is associated
with benefit in observational studies and is roughly
equivalent in effects on blood levels to about two
carrots a day."
[68] "Effects of a Combination of Beta Carotene
and Vitamin A on Lung Cancer and Cardiovas-
cular Disease," G.S. Omenn, G.E. Goodman,
M.D. Thornquist, J. Balmes, M.R. Cullen, A.
Glass, J.P. Keogh, F.L. Meyskens, B. Valanis,
J.H. Williams, S. Barnhart, and S. Hammar,
New England journal of Medicine 334:
1150-1155, 1996
"We conducted a multicenter, randomized,
double-blind, placebo-controlled primary prevention
trial -- the Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial --
involving a total of 18,314 smokers, former smokers,
and workers exposed to asbestos. The effects of a
combination of 30 mg of beta carotene per day and
25,000 IU of retinol (vitamin A) in the form of
retinyl palmitate per day on the primary end point,
the incidence of lung cancer, were compared with
those of placebo."
"This report presents interim efficacy results of the
CARET study, which coincided with the announce-
ment of the steering committee's decision on January
11, 1996, to stop the trial's active intervention.
Follow-up for additional end points is expected to
continue for another five years."
"The results of the trial are troubling. There was no
support for a beneficial effect of beta carotene or
vitamin A, in spite of the large advantages inferred
from observational epidemiologic comparisons of
extreme quintiles or quartiles of dietary intake of fruits
and vegetables or of dietary intake or serum levels of
beta carotene or vitamin A. With 73,135 person-years
of follow-up, the active-treatment group had a 28
percent higher incidence of lung cancer than the
placebo group, and the overall mortality rate and the
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A-18
rate of death from cardiovascular causes were higher by
17 percent and 26 percent, respectively."
"The second interim analysis led our safety and
endpoints monitoring committee and steering commit-
tee to recognize the extremely limited pros-)ect of a
favorable overall effect, as well as the possibility of true
adverse effects."
"We have no explanation for the possible adverse
associations that we have observed to date. There was
no evidence of systemic toxicity in any organ from the
vitamin A or, except for the expected skin yellowing,
the beta carotene."
"The results of our study and the ATBC Cancer
Prevention Study in populations at high risk for lung
cancer and cardiovascular disease and the finding of the
Physicians' Health Study of no benefit or harm after
12 years of beta carotene treatment clearly do not
support the widely accepted conclusion drawn from
observational epidemiologic studies that beta carotene
is a primary component responsible for the association
of lower risks of cancer and death from cardiovascular
causes with high intakes of fruits and vegetables."
"Our findings provide important new information
with respect to public policy and public health....
[T]hey make it clear that there can be little enthusiasm
about the efficacy or safety of supplemental beta
carotene or vitamin A in efforts to reduce the burdens
of cancer or heart disease in certain populations.
However, we still recommend the dietary intake of
fruits and vegetables."
ETS/IAQ REPORT, iSSUE 123
"Two reports in this issue of the journal should put to
rest any remaining hopes that, for adults, beta carotene
suppleme-ts may be an effective means of lo,vering the
risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease."
"The disappointing results of the clinical trial of beta
carotene reaffirm the important of solid scientific
knowledge as the basis of disease-prevention strategies.
Inferences that beta carotene can prevent cancer and
cardiovascular disease were drawn largely from observa-
tions of a lower risk associated with vegetable and fruit
consumption; they lacked strong support from clinical
trials or mechanistic studies."
"[N]o one should discount the importance of the
findings of epidemiologic studies of diet and chronic
disease. In most such studies, persons who ate a
relatively large quantity of vegetables, fruits, and grains
were found to have a profoundly lower risk of death,
particularly from cardiovascular disease and cancer.
Antioxidant vitamins may not account for all (or even
any) of the benefits associated with this dietary pattern,
and the myriad other substances in plants should be
examined for possible preventive properties."
GENOTOXICITY AND MUTAGENICITY
[70] "Formation of Tobacco Smoke-Induced Hemo-
globin Adducts in Rats," C.G. Gairola, S.R.
Myers, M.T. Pinorini-Godly, and S.
Subramaniam, The Toxicologist30(1, Part 2):
6
[69] "Antioxidant Vitamins, Cancer, and Cardiovas- 503, 199
cular Disease," E.R. Greenberg and M.B. Sporn, "Hemoglobin adducts have been used as indicators of
New EnglandJournal of Medicine 334: cumulative exposure to chemicals. Cigarette smoke,
1189-1190, 1996
"[S]cores of epidemiologic studies have noted a lower
risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease among persons
whose diets include a relatively large amount of
vegetables and fruits.... Beta carotene has received
particular attention as a disease-preventing antioxidant,
with numerous favorable reports in scientific journals,
and sales of supplements have soared....[T]here has
been a persistent expectation that larger trials and
longer periods of follow-up would ultimately demon-
strate the benefits of beta carotene."
which is a complex mixture of chemicals, can poten-
tially generate electrophiles in vivo and interact with
I _moglobin (Hb) to form a variety of adducts. The
present study examined the formation of three Hb
adducts in a rat model following experimental exposure
to tobacco smoke. Sprague Dawley rats were exposed
to sidestream cigarette smoke (SS-CS) for 6 hrs for 1
day or 6 hrs each day for 1 and 3 months in a whole
body exposure chamber ... Three adducts, one formed
by interaction of acrylonitrile with valine residues
(AN-Val) and two formed by interaction of
4-aminobiphenyl (ABP-Cys) or benzo(a)pyrene
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93140343

MAY 10, 1996
(BP-Cys) with cysteine residues, were identified and
measured ... Hb adducts could be detected evern after
1 day of exposure to SS-CS. Daily smoke exposure for
1 month increased the AN-Val, ABP-Cys and
BP-tetrol-Cys adducts in exposed animals by about 2,
40 and 8-fold, respectively, in comparison to control
levels ... These results support the use of Hb adducts
as potential biomarkers of tobacco smoke exposure."
[71] "Formation of 8-Hydroxy-2'-Deoxyguanosine in
Heart, Liver, and Lung Tissue Due to Environ-
mental Tobacco Smoke Exposure," D.J. Howard
and C.A. Pritsos, The Toxicologist 30(1, Part 2):
357, 1996
"Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a hotly
debated social, political, and scientific issue; pitting
smoker's rights against the health and safety of
non-smokers. Striking an acceptable balance between
the two depends largely on the potential health hazard
assessment of ETS. Studies from this laboratory have
shown that exposure to ETS contributes to oxidative
stress in mouse heart, liver, and lung tissues. This study
measures the level of oxidative damage to mouse liver,
lung, and heart DNA as a result of this oxidative stress.
Adult female Balb/c mice were exposed to a regimen
consisting of seque.,ces of a 30 minute exposure
followed by a 1.5 hour non-exposure, repeated up to 3
times. Tissues were excised following the exposure and
non-exposure periods. DNA was then extracted from
the tissues and analyzed for the presence of the oxida-
tive product 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG).
In all three tissues, the exposure increased the presence
of 8-OHdG above the control levels. In some in-
stances, the increased levels returned to normal by the
end of the non-exposure period, while other tissues
showed a further increase following non-exposure.
These studies demonstrate that limited exposure to
ETS produces measurable DNA oxidative damage."
INDOOR AIR QUALITY
A-19
[72] "The Impact of Heavy Metals from Environ-
mental Tobacco Smoke on Indoor Air Quality
as Determined by Compton Suppression
Neutron Activation Analysis," S. Landsberger
and D. Wu, The Science of the Total Bnviron-
ment 173/174: 323-337, 1995
"The objective of this study is to improve neutron
activation analysis (NAA) by using epithermal neutron
irradiation and Compton suppression techniques for
low level metal determination, and to monitor the
concentrations of some heavy metals in public places,
where ETS is present; for understanding its impact on
indoor air quality."
"[T]he detection limits of cadmium, arsenic and
antimony measurement have been dramatically
reduced to 2 ng for Cd, 0.2 ng for As and 0.05 ng
for Sb."
"Cadmium has been found as an important heavy
metal in particulate phase of indoor air from smoking.
Other heavy metals, such As, Sb and Zn are also found
at elevated levels. Since these elements are classified as
potentially toxic substances, long term inhalation of
the metals, even at a low level, has a risk for respirable
diseases. The accurate assessment of the risk is difficult
to determine in a short period. Therefore, it is benefi-
cial for general population to prohibit smoking in the
indoor public places, or at least to separate smoking
area and non-smoking area to decrease the risk of the
passive smoking."
[731 "Separating the Impact of Exposure and Person-
ality in Annoyance Response to Environmental
Stressors, Particularly Odors," G. Winneke, M.
Neuf, and B. Steinheider, Environment Interna-
tional22:73-81, 1996
"Experimental and field studies illustrate the impor-
tance of person-related covariates in modulating
annoyance responses to environmental stressors,
particularly industrial odours. Experimental evidence is
presented on trait-aspects of the annoyance-response,
using traffic-noise, environmental tobacco-smoke
(ETS), and odor (H,S) as controlled environmental
stressors: Subjects preclassified as being high or low
responders to either traffic noise or industrial odors in
SHB

A-20
their everyday living environment exhibited similarly
elevated or reduced reactivity to any of the stressors.
Furthermore, field studies on exposure-response
associations for odor-annoyance in the vicinity of
odor-emitting industrial sources reveal that apart from
age and perceived health general stress coping-styles
modulate the degree of odor-annoyance: Problem-oriented
coping activates and avoidance-coping reduces the
expression of annoyance to environmental odours. It is
concluded that transactions between person-related
variables and environmental perceptions need to be
considered for a better understanding of psychological
responses to environmental stressors in general, and to
environmental odors in particular."
"In this paper, an effort is made by the authors to
critically review certain experimental and epidemiologi-
cal studies on annoyance by environmental stressors.
Industrial odors are emphasized in order to demon-
strate exposure response contingencies for
environmental annoyance as well as their modification
by person-related factors, namely trait annoyance,
coping style, perceived health and age."
SMOKING POLICIES AND RELATED ISSUES
[74] "Cigarette Smoking in China: Prevalence,
Characteristics, and Attitudes in Minhang
District," Y.L. Gong, J.P. Koplan, W. Feng,
C.H.C. Chen, P. Zheng, and J.R. Harris,
Journal of the American Medical Association 274:
1232-1234, 1995
"In this study, we describe the prevalence, pattern,
and familial financial implications of smoking and the
attitudes toward and knowledge of the health effects of
tobacco use in Minhang in 1993."
"Of all 7016 male and female respondents, 6202
(88.4%) believed that smoking is harmful for the
smoker and 6195 (88.3%) believed smoking is also
harmful to those passively exposed to cigarette smoke."
"A total of 332 (14.1%) of all 2279 male current
smokers wished to quit smoking.... The most
common reasons for wanting to quit were concern
about their own health (72.4%), economic consider-
ETS/IAQ REPORT, ISSUE 123
ations (27.6%)), objections of family members
(12.9%), and concerns about the health of others
(9.6%)."
"This survey reveals a dangerous health situation that
in all likelihood will worsen. More than two thirds of
--males in Minhang District smoke, a rate comparable
with those found in other parts of China (57% to
80%). People in successive age cohorts seem to start
smoking at earlier ages. Young smokers prefer and
more often smoke imported brands. Smokers are
willing to spend a substantial proportion of their
income on supporting their habit. There is a low rate
-of quitting smoking and a low desire to quit despite
high awareness of the detrimental health consequences
of tobacco use. In addition, cigarettes sold in China
rave higher tar content and are more likely to be
unfiltered than those sold in the United States and thus
present a greater health risk."
"Future prospects could be even grimmer. Females,
most of whom generate their own income, represent an
untapped market for tobacco interests. Only 2% of
females smoke in Minhang.... For the entire popula-
tion of China, lung cancer rates are increasing by 4.5%
per year."
Beyond the personal economic costs of smoking, in
China as well as the United States, tobacco as a
profitable crop and commodity creates a conflict of
interest for a government also responsible for improv-
ing its people's health."
"Warnings have been issued previously in the medical
literature on the health crisis in China due to tobacco
use, and some reassurance has been found in regula-
tions imposing controts and restrictions on the tobacco
industry. However, the warnings have provoked little
organized local governmental or international action,
and the regulations have been inconsistently enforced."
[75] "Resident Smoking in Long-Term Care Facili-
ties -- Policies and Ethics," G. Kochersberger
and E.C. Clipp, Public Health Reports III:
66-70, 1996
"Concerns about the quality of care for the 1.5
million nursing home residents in this country led to
the nursing home reform measures contained in the _
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987. Promo-
tion of nursing home residents' rights, including
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93140346

MAY 10, 1996
`accommodations of individual needs and preferences,'
was an integral part of that legislation. Nursing homes
are no different from society as a whole in balancing
issues of personal autonomy and the rights of others as
they relate to cigarette smoking. In fact, the close living
proximity and restricted mobility of must nursing
home residents accentuate these conflicts. When
smoking is permitted, nonsmoking staff and residents
are exposed to secondhand smoke. Also, residents with
cognitive impairment and various physical disabilities
are often unsafe smokers and present safety risks to
themselves and others."
"We ... conducted a national survey of Department
of Veterans Affairs (VA) Nursing Home Care Units to
collect information on the number of smokers among
long-term care residents and the problems arising from
allowing patients to smoke."
"[I] n the facilities for which we received reports,
approximately one-quarter (22%) of the residents were
reported to be smokers. All responding facilities
accommodated smokers. Seventy-six percent had a
designated smoking area connected with the nursing
home; smokers in the remaining facilities utilized areas
designated for smoking for the entire medical center
population. Over half (61%) of the nursing home
smoking areas were indoors, and the remainder were
reported as being separate structures outside the
nursing home, for example, a patio. Most administra-
tors (91%) reported that residents were never allowed
to smoke in their rooms, with 9% of the facilities
`seldom or occasionally' allowing this practice."
"Most nursing home supervisors ranked patient safety
(the risk of fire) as a`major concern.' Seventy-eight
percent of respondents ranked health effects to the
smokers themselves a`major concern,' while 70% put
health effects of smoking to exposed nonsmokers in
that category. Less than half (46%) considered damage
to the smoking area (burns in rugs and furniture) of
major concern. To a follow-up question, 'Should
nursing homes provide a designated indoor smoking
areas?' 43.7% of respondents answered yes."
"The exposure of nonsmokers to passive or 'second-
hand' smoke led to at least occasional complaints in
62% of facilities. Frequent complaints were reported in
23% of responding facilities. Smoking areas in nursing
homes are often situated so that it is logistically
impossible to protect nonsmokers from smoke expo-
A-21
sure. Fifty-three percent of respondents reported that
nonsmokers as well as smokers use smoking areas in
their fucilities. Of the 47 facilities with ir.door smoking
areas, 38 (76%) used exhaust fans to vent smoke
directly to the outside. Most nursing homes with such
an arrangement (95%) reported these fans to be
somewhat effective (62% noting them to be moder-
ately or very effective), but the differences between the
number of complaints in facilities with and without
ventilation fans were not statistically significant."
"The majority (91%) of the chief nurses or unit
supervisors responding to the survey did not smoke
themselves. However, there were differences between
these smokers and nonsmokers in the concerns they
expressed about smoking behavior. For example, a
greater proportion of the nonsmokers (95%) than
smokers (78%) expressed concern about exposure of
nonsmokers to smoke. VA policy continues to allow
smoking in nursing homes 'except when patients are a
danger to themselves.' Interestingly, the majority
(67%) of the respondents reported seeing smoking as
a`privilege,' while 59% felt that smoking was a`right'
for their patients. Some respondents reported that
smoking is both a right and a privilege. Several
explained this apparent contradiction by noting that
administrative and personal views were at odds on
this matter."
"The adverse effects of exposure to passive smoke
have received increasing attention and have been the
impetus behind indoor smoking bans in many public
facilities and healthcare institutions. VA policy, which
established smoke-free hospitals in 1991, has recently
been made less stringent by controversial federal
legislation. Smoking bans on hospitalized patients may
be viewed as paternalistic acts, but it is believed that
the resulting inconvenience is temporary and offset by
improved health for deprived smokers and those
around them. Clearly, a smoking ban on long-term
care residents would be more difficult to impose. The
hospitalized smoker, denied his or her cigarettes, will
return home in a week or two, free to exercise self
determination which may include a resumption of
smoking. The nursing home resident is rarely dis-
charged to another `home,' making the smoking ban a
lifelong imposition."
SHB

A-22
STATISTICS AND RISK ASSESSAfENT
[76] "Who's Exaggerating?" A.M. Finkel, Discover
May: 48-51, 54, 1996
"Quantitative risk assessment, or QRA, tries to l;ive
policymakers the information they need to answer ...
questions in a rational way. It tries to determine how
many people are likely to get sick or die as a result of a
particular hazard, and how much it would cost to save
at least some of them."
"[T]he version of QRA that many in Congress,
academia, and the media have embraced is a repudia-
tion of much of what has gone before iri this field. It is
reform premised on a myth -- namely, the myth that
current assessment methods routinely exaggerate risk,
at a huge cost to society. To my mind, risk assessment
is in danger of being subverted just as it is coming into
its own as a scientific discipline."
"Producing either `best' or `most plausible' estimates of
risk sounds like a commonsense goal. But is it really? To
decide, you need to answer two questions that critics of
current QRA tend to duck. First, what is the evidence..
. that risk estimates today are routinely skewed in an
overly conservative way? Second, if risk estimates really
are skewed, is that a serious social problem and one for
which 'best' estimates are the cure?"
"Tackling the second question first, let's think about
what it would mean to protect the 'average person'
from the 'average risk.' Most individuals are not
average as far as risks are concerned; they vary greatly
in their exposure and susceptibility to pollution, just
as they vary in, say, body weight.... If we design our
regulations to protect the average person, risk asses-
sors reason, we may fail to adequately protect large
segments of the population. Would that really be
'good science'?"
"Then there is the question of what it would mean to
estimate an 'average risk.' All estimates of risk involve
uncertainry....[Y]ou can never get a single definite
number; if you're honest with yourself, you'll get a
range of answers. Picking the average value of that
range is no more scientific than any other choice; all
choices are value judgments in that they strike some
balance between the health and economic costs of
underestimating the risk and the costs of overestimat-
ETS/IAQ REPnRT, ISSUE 123
ing it. Choosing the average, as 'unbiased' as that may
sound, merely implies that those costs are exactly equal
which is a strong bias indeed."
"Risk assessors traditionally set their sights on the
'reasonable worst case' -- that is, they try to give
themselves more than an even chance of overestimating
the risk in order to be reasonably sure they won't
underestimate it."
"If instead of averaging the various risk estimates
we simply pick the 'most plausible' among them, we
may be even worse off. How do we decide which of.
two or more plausible but competing scientific
theories is most plausible? By some kind of majority
vote among experts?"
"So much for the idea that 'best' estimates would
naturally lead to 'objective' or commonsense regula-
tions. But the great irony of the current debate is the
surprising lack of credible evidence that today's risk
assessments do in fact tend to be overly conservative."
"To be sure, risk assessors do make assumptions that
tend to exaggerate risk. For example, they usually
assume that subjects are exposed to a suspected car-
cinogen 24 hours a day instead of, say, 8. The pending
1P,islation would allow court challences to any regula-
tion that uses that assumption, on the grounds that it
typically introduces a threefold over-estimate of __
exposure. But dozens of assumptions go into a risk
assessment, and critics tend to ignore the ones that cut
in the opposite direction."
"All in all, no one has yet succeeded in finding a
systematic bias in current risk assessment procedures,
apart from the desire -- not always fulfilled -- to protect
nonaverage people."
"To make sensible cost-benefit decisions, obviously,
you need to know the costs as well as the benefits of the
action you're contemplating. The legislation Congress is
now considering prescribes dozens of rules for risk
assessment without mentioning problems of cost analysis
at all. But figuring out the true cost to the economy of
health and environmental regulations is as hard and as
fraught with uncertainty as risk assessment itself. And
the evidence thatcosts are routinely exaggerated is in fact
far stronger than the evidence that risks are."
SHB
93140347

MAY 10, 1996
"For all these reasons, the direct costs of regulations
tend to be overestimated when they are first imposed."
"[W]e should not ask of risk assessment more_quan-
tity or quality than it can yet deliver. Above all, we
should not pretend we are promoting 'good science'
when we are really pushing a political ideology -- one
that says less government regulation, at least where
health and the environment are concerned, is always
better than more. It is not that there is anything wrong
with value judgments; risk assessment cannot be done
without them. It is just that those value judgments
should be made explicit and not be allowed to mas-
querade as objectivity. Here are my values, the ones
that got me into this business in the first place: I
believe that risk assessment, as it is now practiced and
as it is steadily being improved, can help us protect
health and the environment more cheaply and
efficiently and prevent unnecessary injuries, illnesses,
and deaths. And I believe that whatever society
decides about how much it is worth to save a life or
protect an ecosystem, the real 'best' risk assessment is
one that encourages decision makers to be honest
about uncertainty and to make smart -- and humane
-- responses to it."
SHB

MAY 10, 1996
APPENDIX B
UPCOMING SCIENTIFIC MEETINGS
May 10-15, 1996
American Thoracic Society/American Lung Associa-
tion 1996 International Conference, Morial
Convention Center, New Orleans, Louisiana [Issue
116 item 41]
May 16, 1996
Frontiers in Genetic Toxicology, Hotel Dupont,
Wilmington, Delaware, May 16, 1996 [Issue 121
item 46]
May 18-24, 1996
1996 American Industrial Hygiene Conference &
Exposition, Washington Convention Center, Wash-
ington, D.C. [Issue 119 item 40]
May 19-22, 1996
Fourth International Symposium on Metal Ions in
Biology and Medicine, Tarragona, Spain [Issue 119
item 41 ]
9 May 20-21, 1996
Harmonization of State/Federal Approaches to
Environmental Risk, Kellogg Center, Michigan State
University, East Lansing, Michigan [Issue 118 item 47]
May 20-22, 1996
Issues and Answers to Indoor Air Quality, Falls
Church, Virginia [Issue 119 item 37]
June 10-July 5, 1996
New England Epidemiology Summer Program,
Boston, Massachusetts [Issue 119 item 42]
June 12-15, 1996
Society for Epidemiologic Research Annual Meeting,
Park Plaza Hotel, Boston, Massachusetts [in this issue]
June 20-28, 1996
Air & Waste Management Association 89th Annual
Meeting and Exhibition, Nashville, Tennessee [Issue
109 item 28]
9 June 22-26, 1996
ASHRAE Annual Meeting, Marriott River Center,
San Antonio, Texas [in this issue]
B=1
July 7-11, 1996
Indoor Air Quality: A Critical Evaluation of the
Science and the Art, Johnson State College, Johnson,
Vermont [Issue 120 item 35]
July 8-12, 1996
Annual Summer Toxicology Forum, Given Biomedical
Institute, Aspen, Colorado [in this issue]
July 17-19, 1996
5th International Conference on Air Distribution in
Rooms, Room Vent '96, Yokohama, Japan [Issue 100
item 28]
July 21-26, 1996
Indoor Air '96: The 7th International Conference on
Indoor Air Quality and Climate, Nagoya, Japan [Issue
82 item 29]
August 5-9, 1996
Toxicology for the 21st Century, Plaza San Antonio
Hotel, San Antonio, Texas [Issue 122 item 39]
August 12-16, 1996
Occupational and Environmental Radiation Protec-
tion, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston,
Massachusetts [Issue 122 item 40]
August 26-30, 1996
3rd International Course on Sick Building Syndrome
in the Office Environment--Measurements and
Evaluation, Schaeffergaarden, Copenhagen, Denmark
[Issue 112 item 41]
August 26-30, 1996
Inhaled Human Particles VIII: Occupational and
Environmental Implications for Human Health,
Robinson College, Cambridge, England [Issue 117
item 50]
August 27-30, 1996
The 14th International Scientific Meeting of the
International Epidemiological Association: Global
Health in a Changing Environment, Nagoya Congress
Center, Nagoya, Japan [Issue 121 item 47]
SHB

B-2 ETS/IAQ REPORT, ISSUE 123
September 15-18, 1996
Sixth International Meeting on the Toxicology of
Natural and Manmade Fibrous and Non-Fibrous
Particles, Hilton Hotel, Lake Placid, New York [Issue
120 item 36]
September 15-20, 1996
25th International Congress on Occupational Health,
Stockholm International Fairs, Stockholm, Sweden
[Issue 115 item 32]
September 16-18, 1996
The Ninth Annual National Conference on Indoor Air
Pollution, Hotel Royal Plaza, Orlando, Florida,
September 16-18, 1996 [Issue 121 item 48]
September 16-20, 1996
13th Inte-national Symposium on Contamination
Control, The Hague, Netherlands [in this issue]
September 20-22, 1996
Ist International Course on Risk Assessment of
Carcinogens, Silja Serenade, Stockholm, Sweden [Issue
113 item 54]
October 6-8, 1996
IAQ'96: Paths to Better Building Environments,
Baltimore, Maryland [Issue 110 item 39]
October 6-9, 1996
Carcinogenesis from Environmental Pollution: Assess-
ment of Human Risk and Strategies for Prevention,
Hotel Gellert, Budapest, Hungary [Issue 120 item 37]
August 24-28, 1997
10th World Conference on Tobacco or Health, Beijing
International Convention Center, Beijing, China [Issue
122 item 41]
SHB
