Lorillard
The Health Consequences of Smoking A Public Health Service Review] 670000
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- Doll
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- Haskell, W.L.
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- Document File
- 03763512/03766002/S H Re 1979 Surgeon General S Report.
- Date Loaded
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THE NATURE OF THIS REPORT
. ... ......... .:...,'4St".-.-....,..,.-
This report which provides a summary of current information on the
health consequences of smoking, is based on the review of the research
reports which have become available since the study of the Surgeon
General's Advisory Committee was released. Public Health Service
staff members consulted the literature and requested additional infor-
mation or interpretations of the published data from the research
scientists when needed. During this review a complete bibliography,
containing some 5,700 citations, was compiled; it is now in manu-
script form and will be published shortly (19).
The advice and comments of experts within the Public Health Serv-
ice, particularly the Bureau of Disease Prevention and Environmental
Control and the National Institutes of Health, as well as of specialists
outside the Public Health Service, were solicited especially on matters
involving judgment and evaluation. , ... ,. . ., . . .
The general criteria used by the Surgeon General's Committee have
been followed. First, epidemiological data were evaluated to determine
whether an association exists. In judging the significance of the as-
sociation, its consistency, strength, specificity, temporll relationship,
and coherence were utilized. The convergence of evidence from animal
experiments, clinical and autopsy studies, and population studies re-
mains the essential basis for evaluation of the significance of the
associations identified. . . . .
. This report presents, under the following headings, the major fmd-
ings of research studies published in the past 3 to 4 years:
1. Smoking and Overall Mortality.
2. Smoking and Overall Morbidity.
3. Smoking and Cardiovascular Diseases. -.
4. Smoking and Chronic Bronchopulmonary Diseases (Non-neo-
plastic). .
5. Smoking and Cancer.
6. Other Conditions and Research Areas. .
Each of these sections is introduced by pertinent conclusions from
the Surgeon General's 1964 Report, which are followed by discussion
and conclusions of the preaent study.
. . . ~..; sK , . .
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the time when there was also a substantial drop in cigarette smoking
among physicians in general, and during the time that lung cancer
There are no adequate data to evaluate the benefit of reductions in
exposure that are more modest than those achieved by complete cessa-
tion, although it seems reasonable to assume that a substantial reduc-
tion in exposure is likely to be accompanied by some reduction in risk
tion of risk compared to those who continue to smoke.
tality for those who give up smoking as also reflecting a direct altera-
case can now be made for interpreting reduced rates of overall mor-
These findings are shown in Table 2, which has been derived from
Doll's report (7). The lung cancer death rate among men in England
and Wales increased from 1.49 per 1,000 in the period 1954-57 to 1.86
per 1,000 in the period 1962-64, a rise of 25 percent. At the same time,
the lung cancer death rate for British physicians dropped from 1.09
per 1,000 in the first period to 0.76 per 1,000 in the second period, a
reduction of 30 percent. This reduction in death rates from lung can-
cer among all physicians is larger than would have been anticipated
from examining only the experience of those physicians who had
stopped smoking before the study began and indicates that the ex-
perience of ex-smokers in prospective studies probably understates
the benefits of giving up smoking.
With these findings the case for cigarette smoking as the principal
cause of lung cancer is overwhelming. The reduction of rates eaperi-
enced in ea-smokers as compared with continuing smokers is clearly
shown in the case of lung cancer to be a reflection of a significant
change in risk. Since the concern that selective bias might have ac-
counted for the earlier findings has been contraindicated, a stronger
length of the cessation period increases.
as the rate of smoking among British physicians decreases and the
report by Doll (7) suggests that this trend is becoming more marked
as against another population in which it is not common. A more recent
the effect of giving up smoking is judged by the mortality results in
an entire population in which the giving up of smoking is common
rates were rising in the male population of Great Britain. This situa-
tion is not unlike that of a controlled cessation experiment in which
relative to those who do not reduce their exposure.

Ixe
pl
ts
rs
Smoking and OveraHl Mortality
QviONCLIISIONSOFTHE SIIROl GENIIIhLiS. 1961 R$PORT
CIGARETTE smoking is associated witk a 70-percent increase in
the age-specific death rates of males, and to a lesser extent with in-
creased death rates of females. The tot'al number of excess deaths
causally related to cigarettee smoking in the U.S, population cannot
be accurately estimated« In view of the continuing andmounting evi-
dence from many sources, it is the judgment ofl the Committee that
cigarette smoking contributes substantiallly to mortality from, certain
speeifie diseases and to the overall death rate.
In general, the greater the number of cigarettes smoked daily, the
higher the dhath rate. For men. who smoke fewer than 10~cigarettes
a day,. according to the seven prospective studies, the death rate from
all causes is about 40 percent higher than for nonsmokers. For those
who smoke from 10 to 19 cigarettes a day,, it is about 70 percenthigher
than for nonsmokers; f'orr those whoo smoke 20 to39 a day, 90 percent
higher; and for those who smoke 40.or more, it is 120 percent higher.
Cigarette smokers who stopped smoking,before enrolling in the
seven studies have adeath rate about 40 percent higher than non-
smokers, as against 70 percent higher for current cigarette smokers.
Men who began smoking before age 20 have a substantially higher
death rate than those who began after age 25. Compared.with non-
smokers, the mortality risk of cigarette smokers, after adjustments for
differences in age, increases with duration of smoking (number of
years), andl is higher in those who stopped after age 55 than for those
who stopped at an earlier age..
In two studies which recorded the degree of inhalation, the mortality
ratio for a.given amount of smoking was greater for inhalers than for
noninhalers.
.
The ratio of death rates of smokers to that of nonsmokers is highest
at the earlier ages. (40-50) represented in.these studies, and decPiness
with increasingg age.. -
Possible relationships of death rates to other forms. of tobacco: use
were also investigated ''. The death~ rates for men smoking less
than 5 cigars a day are about the same as for nonsmokers. Fbr men
smoking more than 5 cigars daily death rates are slightly higher.
There is.some indication: that these kigher death rates. occur primarlly
in menn who have been smoking more than 30 years and', who. inhalethe smoke to sorn e dhgnee. The
death rates for pipe smokers are little.
ifat all higher than for nonsmokerseven for men who smoke10 or
more pipefuls a day and for men who have smoked pipes more than
30 years,,
271~394 0--67-2

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'es,
of';
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er-
,nd
he
or
.ion
!ars
ina,
ble
at
it"'
ish
ent
lie.
ers had a comparatively lower rate,. which was still 36 percent above
the rate for nonsmokers "' * Men smoking combinations of ciga-
ret'tes plus cigars and/or pipe also had elevated death rates for overalll
mortality,but these were not elevated to the same eatent as those of
men smoking only cigarettes.
"The death rates for overall mortality of pipe smokers and cigar
smokers were not appreciably different from those of nonsmokers;
"For cigarette: smokers as compared to nonsmokers, overall mor-
tality ratios were elevated after 5 years of smoking at any t'ime in
their life and remained elevated as.long as they continued to smoke
cigarettes..
"Mal'e current cigarette smokers who imhalerl had a death rate for
overall mortality 52 percent higher than that of those who did not
inhale.
"An urban/rural comparison was made between males of equivalent
cigarette smoking habits and nonsmokers. It was found that the
death rate for overall mortality of. urban. dwellers (persons with
a history of 5 years or more.of city residence) was 12 percent higher
than that for rural dwellers of comparable smoking habit$:
"Respondents were classifiedl into occupational groups based on
their history of occupation. No evidence was found in this study of
clear-eut associations between cause of death and occupation. Further,
occupation didl not appear to modify tlhe established asaociationn of
cigarette smokers with death rates in excess of those of nonsmokers."
SOME GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
Iky
The problem of how best to measure the relationship between smok-
ing and mortality has been discussed in the Surgeoni GeneraI's 1964
Report as well as iir some of the prospective stludy reports. As the
amount of data. available. increases, the person-years of observations
in the many population subgroups that are worthi examining increases
so.that stable rates may be computed and compared. A brief discussion
of three measures of comparison available and their utility seems
desirable as confusion frequently arises over these measurea
1. Mortality Ratios: Obtained by dividing the death rate for
a classification of smokers. by the death rate of a comparable
group of nonsmokers.
2.. Differencesin. Mortality Rates.: Obtainerl by subtracting
from the death rate for smokers, the death rate of' a eomparable
group of nonsmokers.
3: Excess Deaths: Obtained by subtraeting, from the number
of deaths occurring,in agroup of smokers the number of deaths
11

t6
3. Exceea Deatha aa a Percentage of Totad Deatha-As with mor-
tality ratios, this statistic appears to be highest in the age group 45-54
where it reaches 43 percent in one group of men and 38 percent in
the other. Hammond's data by 5-year age groups show the highest
rate at ages 45-49, where it is 44 percent. Reviewing both study groups
it appears that for men between the ages of 35 and 60 approximately
one-third of all deaths that occur are excess deaths in the sense that
they would not have occurred as early as they did if cigarette smokers
had the same death rates as the nonsmoking group. For women, the
percentage is much lower, reaching a peak of 9 percent of all deaths
in age group 45-54. It should be noted that this measure not only de-
pends on the differences in death rates between the smokers and the
nonsmokers, but also on the proportion of smokers in the group. Thus,
even with a large difference in rates between smokers and nonsmokers,
a population with very few smokers would have very few excess
deaths. This measure is therefore an indicator of the public health
sigruficmrce of the differences found since it measures the number of
people affected and therefore the magnitude of the problem for society
as a whola
Once the magnitude of the excess is identified the problem becomes
one of determining (1) how much of the eacess would not have oc-
curred if it had not been for cigarette smoking and (2) how much
would have occurred anyhow. It should be noted that much of the ex-
cess has already been identified as belonging in the first category. Of
the remainder, little of the excess has been clearly identified as belong-
ing in the second category-that is, not caused by smoking. With most
of that remainder there is uncertainty as to the category in which it.
belongs.
MEasunes oF Earosoxs
Studies involving smoking, whether epidemiological or behavioral,
have been concerned with measures of exposure to tobacco smoke. For
the most part, these studies have been restricted principally to the in-
dex of number of cigarettes smoked over a specified period of time,
usually an "average day." The heavy reliance on numbers of cigarettes
alone as a measure has produced important findings but it has possi-
bly obscured others. The new reports on the prospective studies have
provided a substantial amount of data to support the concept that
many elements should enter into an overall measure of exposure. Such
factors as age at beginning smoking, duration of smoking, and inhala-.
tion have all shown some independent contributions to the overall
effect, along with numbers of cigarettes. A recent report (12) has at-
tempted to develop a more adequate measure of exposure in which
various individual components of dosage would be combined to form
composite scores.
.~, ._
14
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I

CHAPTER 1
Smoking and Cardiovascular Diseases
CONTENTS
Page
timoking and Coronary Heart Disease....................... 47
Coronary Heart Disease Mortalit'y .................... 47
Coronary Heart IDiseasel4forllidity ..................... 53
Manifestations of'Coronary Heart Disease .............. 58'
Cardiovascular Response to Smoking and/or I+Iicotfiete.... 60
Coronary Blood Flow inrn Normal Subjects .......... 60
Coronary B1ood Flov in Subjects With Cbronary
Heart. Disease ................................. ... ........... 6'.I.
Carbon.-Monoxidie Effectl ......................... 62'
Studies on In Vitro Thrombus Formation ..... ..... 64
Autopsy Studies ................................................ 6'.5~
Smoking andl Cerebrovascular Disease..................... . 66'
Smoking andl Aortic Aneurysm ............................ 69'
Cited References ........................................ 6'.9.
Supplemental References................................. ............ 76'~
45

T
Smoking and Overall Morbidity
r THE TrmE of the Surgeon General's 1964 Report there was no
A information availiable on the overall' disability associated with
smoking. To incestigate the. relationship between smoking and' mor-
bidity, the National Center for Health Statistics of the Public Heal!Gh
Service introduced questions about cigarette smoking into iits National
HeaIth. Survey,., beginning in. July 1964. This. Surveyis a continuing
study conducted'since195Z.
Inn carrying on th is.Su.rvey,interviewers eaahh year vi'sit 42,006W fami-
lies (selected as a, probability sample of the civilian, noninstitiutional
population of the United Stat'es)) and'question them about illness, dis-
ability, and days absent from work because of illnessas well as the
nature of tfiee illness.. In the year ending in JYme.1965, they inquired
(after all other questions about headtlh had been asked) about the smok-
ing habits of'persons in the family who were 17 years of age or over.
The National Health Survey is concerned with three overall meas-
uresof the impact of illness.
1. Days Lost From Work.-These are days absent from job or busi'-
neasbecause of illness or injiury. They apply onlly to those persons
who are currently employed and are therefore heavily concentrated in
agegroups I7-64.. 2. Bed Dnys.-These are days when the person is sufficiently ill or
disabled so as t'o spend all or most of' the day in bed,, either at home
or ini a hospital. All days spent as a hospital patient are included.
3.. Days of Restvicted Activzty.-These are days when.a person cuts
down, his usual activities for most of a day because of an illness or
an injury. Dayslost from work because of'illnessand bed days are, of
eourse, counted as days of restricted activity. This represents the most
general measure of di'sabillty available in the United States today:,
Table 3 summarizes the findings in a form similar to that used for
summarizing, the overall mortality utilizing t.hreemeasures of. mor-
bidity effect: Morbidity ratios,,difPerences in rates,,and'eaeess days of
d'isability.
f

Os by 11 HIGiHLIGITTS OF CURR.ENT INFORMATION
dfiffer-
iJ3ficmlt
tudies
3ition,
ang is
J Even
§ymp-
itug is
hough
ratory
!h one
e have
alities
dem
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dl air
ang is'
IflrIDs's
lchiall
dYuced
iveo-
~rtant
fmnary
thiis
rm or
;e evi-
IItal)
intant
~ put
NPhy-
1. Nlew data.confirm and to some extent strengthen the conclu-
sions of the Surgeon General's 1964 Report.
2. Cigarette smoking is the most important of'the causes of chronic'
non-neoplastic bronchopulimonary diseases in the United States. It
greatly increases the risk of dying not only from both chronic bron.
clutisbut also firom pulmonary emphysema..
3. Cessation of smoking is followed by a reduction in mortality from
chronic bronchopulmonary disease relative to the mortality of those
who continue to smoke.
4. Even relatively young cigarette smokers frequently have demon-
strable respiratory sy~mptoms and reduction in~ ventilat;ory function.

4. Cessation or appreciable reduction of cigarette smoking
could delay or avert a substantial portion of deaths which occur
from lung cancer, a substantial portion of the earlier deaths and
excess disability from chronic bronchopulmonary diseases, and a
portion of the earlier deaths and excess disability of osrdiovas-
+ cularorigin. f: A51~'f.i:'Y't,}'-4 .
NATURE OF RECENT RESEARCH FINDINGS `
~ Since the Surgeon General's Report was published in January 1964,
there has been a proliferation of additional studies and reports on
smoking research. In the 12 years'preceding that report, some 3,000
articles were published reporting research; since 1964, there have been
ry.t more than 2,000 additional studies.
az These studies have helped to clarify the role that age plays in the
rt; relationship of smoking to health; the similarities and differences in
the ways in which men and women are affected by smoking; and the
influences and effects of stopping smoking, particularly in the case of
lung cancer where there is significant data to show that sharp reduc-
tions in lung cancer deaths follow closely reductions in cigarette
smoking. The studies also suggest the importance of a variety of
measures of exposure; add substantial new information on the magni-
tude of the morbidity problem associated with smoking; and provide
more adequate data upon which to base estimates of the magnitude
of the mortality problem.
Historically, concern about the effects of smoking began with ob-
servations of the extremely high frequency with which lung cancer
patients were identified as cigarette smokeia Thesa observations took
i on a fuller meaning with the first publication of the prospective studies
"i' in 1954 when higher overall death rates among cigarette smokers
were identified. The rates were found to exceed the difference that
could be accounted for by lung cancer alone. Until that time, the
possibility remained that although more cigarette smokers appeared to
suffer from lung cancer, if there were no significant excess overall
mortality, some other cause or causes of mortality would have had to
be underrepresented among cigarette smokers. The Surgeon General's 1964 Report concluded that
cigarette smokers
do have higher death rates than their nonsmoking counterparts. This
has changed the emphasis of the present problem away from the ques-
tion tion "does cigarette smoking cause diseasel" to the more precise
questionsof: . . .- ...< .. : .:. . ~. _..:..: ,
~: 1. How much mortality and excess disability are associated with
smoking4
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