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18 C i ~ ' t. .;,,P~ s ~ E4XPj',IT~': `~ ~ Li: t l L'i I•+Jrf 11 T+i~'fi;I ;tr, t .) ~ L.i ~ UJ'3li,;;J_~1 i i 7-P,1o15ti'1 increase in Dca'il' Rate-_is Uerhaps 5 Timcs ! Higher Than Expected ;~ Ry JANE ii. DIiODY I Natior:al- Lancer exRert e baffled by thc -apparcntly su;l-, .den and dramatic rise in t`e cancer death rate reported e,.r-, lier this month, are sc:r:hi;" : their rccords for son;e z1u+:F to the ca!r-. - Accordin, to provisional fiU-j ures issued by the Aatioaal - Ccnter for Hca;th Statistics,` the increase in the nation's, cancer death ratc for the first seven mor:ths of this year-%vas perhaps iii-e times hib:n•?r than. expected. Instead of abo_ut a 1percent annual increase in the nt.ur.her of cancer, deaths -p^r 10.00 persons :n the popula;ior,-a rate that has ptevailed for de- eades-the rate jumped 5.2 per-~ cent. I At the worst, some cancer slatisticiars Say, the jUntp 1n3V1 represent'the mu:hroot;lin^_ of, a lone-forecast cpidemic~ of, lung cancer an'ong won:en. At -best, it may be the i!;dircct j resu!t of a -drop in-the ratci of deaths fratn heart ducase-j the nation's leading l:i!!cr-, }caving moro i>cople su_ccpt:bie~ to drath frcm car.ccr. - + ;<tore conqen-;4tive experts; belicve that the increase v.i;l. turn cut to be a statisucaE I f:ukc, the res:ilt of some cii la;: j in the w•: +• ca::ccr death =t: ;.s-. tics are co!Iectcd. New Data Cited _ However, new data from taci Metropolitan Life Insurancc• Campany indicate that a real:' infre.lsi h.~s ii.aeCd ocC'urrhd.l - Metropolitan has- found a 6' percent increase in the cancer! death rate among its_-pnl:cy holders for the first six tnontit: of this year. in previous years,:. guing back to 1?1G't, the :n-I crease has not exceeded 1 per-~ cent. At the same timc, the N1^tro-I polilan stati+tics show a 7 pcr-I cent jump in dcath.r• fro:n Ittn.^,I cancer for th; first haif of i this year cmnparcil to the li'ncj six months of last year. i. - Thus far, the intense anal+•sts of the national data under wa}'-= -at tac N <;tione.l G.i;icer Ihstitutc, - has--bccn singularly unrcvca:-; "Unless the National -Centei•! for }fcalth Statistics is conccal-i ino sontcthin, -; or is unawa-rct of somn_ change in their data! collection process, we haven't* yet found any evidence that; the increase is the -result of: a statistical artifact," Dr. Nlfar-i Yin Schl,ei'dcrn,.+n, one of thei instittttc's - chief statisticians,j said. - "Therc`ore, we've ?ot to lool:f at this seriously and st<e «•ilat~ we can find." Accord:n-ly, four experts at the institute's biometry hranchl, are collecting and co::iOingi through thousands of numbersl glcaned from cancer regist::csl acrossthe-country. ! A•Look at the Detail 's "We are going to lool: at the fine details-the distr:bu- tion of cancer deaths _across such categories as age, - sex.I r tce, rcgion ot the countr}~ and! kind cf canccr,";aid Dr. Lco-l nard Chi;zzc, chief of the insti-I tute's _bicmetry branch. Analy-1 ses of thcse data nia_v disc?uscl a dramatic increase in- canccr! deaths amono ccr:ain pcrsons; or for certain kinds-of canc,ers that could account for the over-, all rise. i In addition to studyir.- htn;: cancer anlon, women, wiic•h, has been increasing at an c•:er:. accelerating rate since the j 1:?v0's, the experts are looking; closely at c.:ncer of the uterus,: ++hi,h in sonic parts of tile; country -has increasc,t prccipi-~ tously in tFc la-st fc:+ yc r~ ~ as a rcsuit, so^lc tl,in,, of-i t1lc ;roninq use of cstro;cnt tl;crapv dur;r.,-and after mcno•i pau:c. Une ex!,!anation ttrat is al-. rlost uni%:cc-al:v d:xcourtcct-- at ihis roint. at lcast-i, t-he introduction into the en++ro:t- , mcr.t pcril: ps 10 s or 'O ycarS a,,o of somc new car.cer-c:tw -~ is:g a,ent, thr cffcct of which: are just now sho;vino up. ' A Timc-Bomb Lffcct Althou.^,l CanCCr-CaUgtn; I agents tcnd to have a tit;te-1 bumb- effcct-a long latcncy: period between the time of, first exposure and the t±nal-; de>,'clopnlctlt of ohvicus can:•er, -the bomb docs- not go off ', at the same time for cvcrvnne; exposed to it. A ncwlv intrn-I duccd cancer cause shows upi clowly in the death stati:tica, ; incrc:t,inr tile rate a pcrcent' or two a year. i "A 5 percent jump is justi too large to be accounted for' by the impact-of scne cnv+ron-; -mental a;ent;' Dr. Cai ;zzc j , said. 1 Another point most expcrts, aoree on is that the incrcase! - in the cancer death rate isl unusualh• large. "It's out of line- with tliel ir.crcascs we have sccn s:: thc` pact;'- hr. Schnlcidtrmart said.I ' s the lar.est jump s:nce` the late 19:,0's or early 1tt60's." I_ Statlsticians at t~le Amcrtcan! Cancer Societ}• called thc size of the increa,c -"•unbrlte+'abte,l a baffling mystery." ir.c next qac>tion ia whetherl the i.^.crcase -will disappear as , rapidly as it materialiw:ed as more cotn plrte rcports are col-. Iated for the cntirc year. Since the pro+isional nation tt data arc. hascd on a 10 pcrecnt, sample of dcath:, the full cQftnt.- of all dcaths could -possiL•1; I chanbe thc f;tral rate.

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