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MEMOPAt4DUM December 2, 1975 TO: - Horace R. Kornegay FROM: _ Marvin=A. Kastenbaum SUBJECT: "Experts Baffled by Rise in Cancer" Appended-are-s,ome official=vital statistics to mull over. All sorts of conjectures car result from a selective choice of the data. 1. The cancer death rate increased by 4.6%,-but the rate for cerebrovascular disease decreased by 4.8$--at the same time. - 2. If infectious diseases are of any interest at all, it is only fair to point to the 9.8% increase in that rate. - - - 3. The total num,be-r of-deaths from all causes increased, but the -death rate decreased.- This can result only from a net population growth, a phenomenon that is reflected in all the figures designated as "percent change".

C Death and Death Rates from Various Causes: January - August, 1974-1975 * ° -- Deaths Death-Ratesj100,000 1974 1975 % change 1974 1975 % change Cancer (140--209) 23,404_ 2-5,037 +7.0 168.1 -175.8 +4.6 Major Cardiovascular Disease (390-448)- - 67,780 - 66;992 -1.2 486.8 470.5 -3.3 ischemic Heart Disease (410-413) 44,826 44,464 -0.8 321.9 312.3 -3.0 Cerebrovascular - Di sease (430-438) 13, 691 13,327 -2 f7 98._3 -93.6 --,4,8 Influenza &-Pneurnonia= 3,681 4,134 +12.3 -26.4 29.0 +9.8 Cirrhosis of Liver 2,250 2,148 -4,,5 16.2 15.1 -6.8 Accidents 6,802 6,786 -0.2 48.9 47.7 -2.5 All Causes - 128,488 130,513 +1.6 922.8 916.6 -0.7 * Source: Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Provisional Statistics. National Center for Health Statistics. Vol. 2,No. 9, November 21, 1975.