Silfen, Thomas E.
Thanks to Bert Hirshhorn for forwarding this document.
This remarkable memorandum, written by lawyer Thomas Silfen of Philip Morris' law firm Arnold and Porter, comes about as close to soul-searching as a tobacco industry operative probably could. In the memo, Silfen muses about what can be done "to relieve the industry's long agony over health issues--to get the industry out of the 'it hasn't been proven' trap once and for all."
Silfen mulls over the utility of the "hasn't been proven" stance, but discloses its shortfalls when it comes to litigation and public health:
"In litigation, we have sought to defuse the issue by adopting the slightly softened risk factor position: i.e., there is a statistical association which could possibly be causal, but the evidence is still not conclusive. Out of court, and especially before Congress, that position will not suffice. When the issue is public health not scientific proof, admitting that tobacco is a 'risk' actually highlights the hard questions. How big is the risk: is it 20% proven or 40% proven or 55%?... Given that risk, how many people die from smoking: if not 350,000, is it 200,000 or 100,000? What would it take to convince us that it is proven; are we waiting until every doctor in the world agrees? And what are we going to do once we are finally convinced; will we stop selling the, product, as some company officials have said in the past?"
Despite this, Silfen argues against admitting causation, putting higher priority on the image and liability problems that would be caused if the industry admitted that cigarettes kill people. Silfen counsels that abandoning the industry's long-standing "case isn't proven" stance without a sizeable scientific event
"...would look bad in the public forum and, perhaps, in court as well. More importantly, admitting causation leaves the really significant public health questions unanswered: What do we do next? Do we stop selling cigarettes altogether or stop advertising or submit to FDA jurisdiction? We are right back on the spot, maybe worse off."
Silfen envies the model of the alcohol industry, since their product has similar problems. He says,
"Why do we tolerate alcohol sales and promotion, despite the attendant death, crime and
misery. Several elements seem to contribute. Everybody knows the danger of alcohol (or at least, we all assume that everybody knows). The alcohol manufacturers do not deny the negative aspects of their product and, in fact, counsel both moderation and adult use....as a matter of law, alcohol use is restricted to adults. Finally, we tried prohibition in this country and it was a miserable failure. That is the position we want for tobacco. Once a product is used only by fully informed, competent adults, all that remains (we would say) is prohibition."
However, Silfen recognizes a major difference from the "alcohol model":
"Cohen tells us that we have created an inconsistent information environment in which vulnerable smokers are able to disbelieve even the best known health warnings. This is, of course, a major difference from the 'alcohol model.' "
This is a fascinating look into the ruminations of an industry attorney who knows well the tobacco industry's track record for deception and who is left trying to find ways to get the industry out of the difficulties it created for itself by its history of denial.