Tobacco Documents Online

This expansive, 295-page confidential report was prepared for the Brown and Williamson Tobacco Company in 1976. Its purpose was to examine present and past trends and predict what would be likely to affect the future of the cigarette market through the year 1990. It is a vast, comprehensive report (and surprisingly prescient). Its market analyses predict future cigarette sales based on such measures as per capita income and educational levels, fertility rates, life expectancy, likelihood of regulatory legislation, changes in attitudes towards smoking and tobacco issues, world population growth, key trends like changing social values, and more.

The study predicted that social acceptability of smoking would decrease, and noted that even smokers "strongly favored restrictions" in where they could smoke.

"Thus the smoker will find himself increasingly restricted as his habit beceoms less socially acceptable. The study questioned both smokers and non-smokers and this favoring of restrictions was exhibited strongly by smokers as well as nonsmokers."(page 53).

The report also found that teenage girls were exhibiting a marked increase in smoking rates and individual consumption. While mentioning that teenage girls are not a "legitimate market," the paper mentions that this trend "will provide a substantial mrket in the future."

"The implication of these trends is that although this particular age groups is not a legitimate marketing target per se, it will provide a substantial market in the future if trends continue."

Of particular interest was the discussion about drug use and changing social values that permit wider use of drugs, particularly marijuana. Some people have stated that the tobacco industry has trademarked the street names of various types of marijuana for use if and when marijuana ever becomes legalized. The report confirms this, and even goes so far as to predict the value of a legalized marijuana market:

"[Marijuana] is the recreational drug; the choice of a significant minority of the population.

The trend in liberalization of drug laws reflect the overall change in our value system. It also has important implications for teh tobacco industry in terms of an alternative product line. "(The tobacco companies) have the land to grow it, the machines to roll it and package it [and] the distribution to market it" (Reference 20). In fact, some firms have registered trademarks which are taken directly from marijuana street jargon. These tradenames are used currently on little known legal products, but could be switched if and when marijuana is legalized. Estimates indicate that the market in legalized marijuana might be as high as $10 billion annually..."

This curious 1976 Brown & Williamson (B&W) forecasting document appears to list factors that B&W believed could affect tobacco sales through the year 1990. Page two of the document (Bates No. 670118374) contains mathematical equations such as

N = NO + (NS-ND)

...where "NO" = "number of users in prior period", "NS" = "number of new users" of tobacco products), "ND" (number of product "dropouts"). Another factor mentioned is "Q," which stands for "tobacco per dose" and "doses per day." The category "New users" was defined by "number relapses, number teenagers, product characteristics, alternatives...parents peers, opportunity..." Number of doses per day was determined by factors such as "[smoking] opportunities, satiation, price, consumer income..."

The category of "dropouts" (from using the product) is described as "number deaths, anti-smoking graduates, alternatives, propaganda..."

Subsequent pages list lifestyle factors that could potentially affect tobacco use, including:

"ghetto culture (drug use, etc.), transcendental meditation...drug habits, attitudes...compatibility of future drugs...moral outlook...hedonism (immediacy of pleasure)"

A category called "Use System" (Bates page 670118182) lists existing and predicted forms of tobacco administration including things like "chewing gum, toothpaste, shavecream, suppository, syringe kit, implant, cooking..." The next page, entitled "Method of drug application" includes "injectible, aerosol, spray, smoke, lotion, solution, implantation," and "ingestion." Below that, an amount of drug (nicotine) is listed,

"1.6 mg for non-smokers (causes dizziness, nausea, vomiting) 6.5 mg for smokers (causes no untoward effects)" (The above appears to indicate knowledge of development of a tolerance level for nicotine, considered by many to be a hallmark of addiction.)

"Body entry points" proposed by the list include "mouth, nose, armpit, knee joint, elbow joint" and "skin." "Absorption point[s] for Systemic Effects" include "mouth, lungs throat, nose, anal, vaginal, intestinal, skin" and "bloodstream."

"Action Point[s]" include the "brain...bloodstream, respiratory system" and "central nervous system (CNS)."

"Physiological utilities and functions" include "dependence, tolerance, antiobesity...cardiovascular effects (constriction), mobilization of blood sugar...slowing of reactions...addictive (nicotine)..."

The list of "Medical diseases" includes "emphysema, asthma...coronary artery disease...cancer of tongue, lip...miscellaneous..accidents-fire, allergies, withdrawal symptoms...Problems of Pregnancy...spontaneous abortion, low birth weight, infant mortality, infant neurological damage..." and much more.

Other categories listed include physiological and psychological utilities and functions of tobacco (the latter list includes "wish for adult status" and "rebellion against authority,") techology affecting growth, processing and forumlation of "dose-forms" of tobacco and alternatives to tobacco (which include marijuana, "synthetic drugs," "Zen Buddhism," "self-hypnosis" and "Yoga.")

The entire document is fascinating and offers an intimate view of how the tobacco industry views its own products, the position that tobacco products hold in human culture, they industry's knowledge about their products' physical, physiological and psychological effects on consumers, and how and why tobacco products appeal to consumers.

This 1983 British American Tobacco (BAT) Research and Development document shows the company grappling with the fact that cigarettes are objectionable to others, that others then complain to smokers about their smoking and pressure them to quit. This document shows BAT struggling to produce a less annoying cigarette to help them maintain the overall social acceptability of smoking, ease pressure on smokers to quit, and thus avoid further erosion of the cigarette market in Britain:

BAT recognized that "complaints [about smoking] relate more to smoke (40%) and smell (30%) than health (15%)" and that "The only solution to social pressure is to quit, albeit temporarily." According to the document, "the need for the tobacco industry to address this problem is critical to secure the total [cigarette] market against accelerating erosion." Problems facing BAT with the proposition of a new cigarette that puts out less smoke and less odor were how to advertise these properties, since advertising that a certain brand of cigarette was a "low smoke, low smell" brand would call more attention to the fact that cigarettes--particularly "traditional" ones-- constitute a source of pollution:

"It would be unwise to suggest that conventional cigarettes are a pollution source and nor should the end benefits of reduced side stream [smoke] be pointed out."

BAT also recognized that, if they should introduce a "beneficial" low sidstream cigarette into their domestic market, "we could be open to the double-standards argument being raised by such bodies as the W.H.O.", if such products were not introduced into less developed countries as well.

The history of Marlboro from being a feminine cigarette to one marketed to men.

Contains phraseology descriptive of cigarette marketing techniques, e.g. "utilizing a music theme to reach less literate prime prospects," "Position BELAIR as a superior, light, refreshing low-tar and provide a mature, romantic attractive image that embraces the emotional needs of older women," "Provide an image of dignity, independence and traditional masculinity which embraces the emotional needs of prime prospects...[advertise] at rodeos and truck pulls."

This Brown & Williamson marketing research and strategy document states, "KOOL should actively position itself toward the only growth in the smoking population -- females." (Page 2). It says, "As a percent of total starters and switchers-in for the industry, females show active growth, 1979-1982." (Page 3). The document suggests (on page 20) using ad copy "with subtle (classy) sexual undercurrents" to address the female smoker segment. It uses terms like like "young adult male starter pool" and "starter inflow," to refer to new young smokers. It says, "KOOL ("cool")/music association may continually reinforce our Black downscale image, e.g. all KOOL music is black music." and (on Pg. 21) and recommends "that we introduce KOOL Ten's in Black, low income and other value conscious neighborhoods and possibly college towns...Blacks..while not attracted to generics (on judgement, because they lack status, image and personality cues) ... probably would be attracted to lower price transaction of a recogized and acceptable brand name." It laments on page 39 that "KOOL does not have its fair share of starters...KOOL has the lowest starter rate in the competitive menthol set," and says (on page 34) that "The split of gains from starters...has traditionally shown KOOL to be highly dependent on starters for inflow source."

Overall, the document shows B&W strategizing to target cigarette advertising at low income African Americans, and young male and female "starters" as a way to sustain the brand sales into the future.

Discusses difficulties facing industry and industry responses. Discusses E. Pepples' analyses and responses to the "cigarette/Health controversy": "produce more filter brands...support scientific research to refute unfavorable findings or at a minimum to keep the scientific question open...conduct information campaigns against claims by the anti-smoking lobby...corporate diversification to minimize potential adverse financial consequences of the controversy on cigarete sales..."