Anne Landman's Collection
A Technological Forecast of the Future Environment and Its Effects on the Tobacco Industry
Abstract
This expansive, 295-page confidential report was prepared for the Brown and Williamson Tobacco Company in 1976. Its purpose was to examine present and past trends and predict what would be likely to affect the future of the cigarette market through the year 1990. It is a vast, comprehensive report (and surprisingly prescient). Its market analyses predict future cigarette sales based on such measures as per capita income and educational levels, fertility rates, life expectancy, likelihood of regulatory legislation, changes in attitudes towards smoking and tobacco issues, world population growth, key trends like changing social values, and more.
The study predicted that social acceptability of smoking would decrease, and noted that even smokers "strongly favored restrictions" in where they could smoke.
"Thus the smoker will find himself increasingly restricted as his habit beceoms less socially acceptable. The study questioned both smokers and non-smokers and this favoring of restrictions was exhibited strongly by smokers as well as nonsmokers."(page 53).
The report also found that teenage girls were exhibiting a marked increase in smoking rates and individual consumption. While mentioning that teenage girls are not a "legitimate market," the paper mentions that this trend "will provide a substantial mrket in the future."
"The implication of these trends is that although this particular age groups is not a legitimate marketing target per se, it will provide a substantial market in the future if trends continue."
Of particular interest was the discussion about drug use and changing social values that permit wider use of drugs, particularly marijuana. Some people have stated that the tobacco industry has trademarked the street names of various types of marijuana for use if and when marijuana ever becomes legalized. The report confirms this, and even goes so far as to predict the value of a legalized marijuana market:
"[Marijuana] is the recreational drug; the choice of a significant minority of the population.
The trend in liberalization of drug laws reflect the overall change in our value system. It also has important implications for teh tobacco industry in terms of an alternative product line. "(The tobacco companies) have the land to grow it, the machines to roll it and package it [and] the distribution to market it" (Reference 20). In fact, some firms have registered trademarks which are taken directly from marijuana street jargon. These tradenames are used currently on little known legal products, but could be switched if and when marijuana is legalized. Estimates indicate that the market in legalized marijuana might be as high as $10 billion annually..."
Fields
- Quotes
(From Page 57 of the document)
Drug Use
One prime example of changing values is in the area of drug use, particularly marijuana. Considerable attention has been devoted to the rising use of marijuana within our culture and, in fact, use has risen significantly since reappearing again in the 60's...What is more interesting is the shift in attitude which has occurred towards the use of marijuana. The Drug Abuse Advisory Council and HEW have done numerous surveys on attitudes and opinions regarding marijuana. A Survey released December 1, 1975 revealed that 582 or the Oregon resident surveyed favored the law which makes possession of marijuana a civil offense somewhat on that order of a parking ticket...[In]Another recent survey 86% of the respondents favored decriminalization for possession. In fact, the trend toward decriminalization of marijuana by state law is gaining momentum, with a total of 8 states which have now removed criminal penalties for possession and another 27 considering similar legislation.
The use of marijuana has become so widespread that the individual who smokes marijuana today hardly fits the stereotypical image created in the1930's of the depraved criminal who got "high" on a reefer and committed vicious crimes. In fact, the National Commission on Marijuana and Drug Abuse (Shafer Commission) found, in their March 1972 Report recommending marijuana decriminalization -- "the most notable statement that can be made about the vast majority of marijuana users -- is that they are essentially indistinguishable from their non-marijuana using peers by any fundamental criterion other than their marijuana use"...
The use of marijuana today by 13 million Americans is socially the equivalent of the use of alcohol by some 100 million Americans. It is the recreational drug; the choice of a significant minority of the population.
The trend in liberalization of drug laws reflect the overall change in our value system. It also has important implications for teh tobacco industry in terms of an alternative product line. "(The tobacco companies) have the land to grow it, the machines to roll it and package it [and] the distribution to market it" (Reference 20). In fact, some firms have registered trademarks which are taken directly from marijuana street jargon. These tradenames are used currently on little known legal products, but could be switched if and when marijuana is legalized. Estimates indicate that the market in legalized marijuana might be as high as $10 billion annually...
- Company
- Brown and Williamson Tobacco Corp.
- Author
- Forecasting International, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
- Recipient
- Brown and Williamson Tobacco Corporation, Louisville, Kentucky
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