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Anne Landman's Collection

Industry Summary

Date: 1992 (est.)
Length: 195 pages
2051363425-2051363618
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snapshot_pm 2051363425-2051363618

Abstract

Buried inside this mostly-dull 195-page Philip Morris (PM) marketing report is some important information that should be noted by public health groups and authorities:

In noting the decline of smoking rates in the U.S., PM lists the major factors that have proven particularly effective at decreasing the demand for cigarettes: "the declining social acceptability of smoking, increased smoking restrictions, particularly in the workplace [and] rising excise taxes and prices..." Confirming that higher cigarette prices effectively decrease smoking rates, the report also says that lower-priced (discount) cigarettes help "keep some consumers in the marketplace" who otherwise would have quit.

The document also describes PM's opposition to fire-safe cigarettes:

"Anti-smoking groups endorse the 'self-extinguishing', or 'Fire Safe', cigarette as a way to...cause all cigarettes to look and taste the same. Such mandates could cripple the competitive advantage of leading brands and intensify the erosion of the overall cigarette market."

PM describes its strategy to fight fire-safe cigarette legislation on Page 150, Bates No. 2051363574:

"ISSUE: Efforts by anti-smoking groups to mandate a 'fire safe' cigarette could destroy the competitiveness of leading brands and increase the cost of manufacturing cigarettes. STRATEGY: ...PM-USA will expand coalitions among the fire prevention community and public policy makers to diffuse support for 'fire-safe' legislation at the state and federal level..."

PM also considered nicotine-replacement therapy aids (like the patch and gum) to be direct competitors. To fight the incursion of these products into the nicotine market, PM planned to develop a "proprietary alternative smoking product" called "Beta," which would "be marketed in direct response to such products as nicotine-releasing skin patches and chewing gum." [Page 37, Bates No. 2051363461]

The report also reveals the extreme importance of smoker databases to cigarette companies' continued ability to promote smoking--something public health authorities have largely ignored. As legal restrictions tighten on advertising and promotions, cigarette companies increasingly turn to huge databases of information that they gather on smokers to continue actively marketing cigarettes to large numbers of people:

"The marketing environment is likely to become more restrictive during the plan period, including additional restrictions on outdoor and event sponsorship. This necessitates creating alternative avenues of reaching the consumer. Developing a smoker name database will enable us to effectively reach a large number of smokers..."

Smoker databases are of such importance as promotional tools that PM girded itself to deflect any legislation that might restrict the company's ability to gather personal information on smokers:

"As the database becomes more critical to our marketing plans, it becomes essential that we protect it from legislated restrictions..." [Page 107, Bates No. 2051363531]

The document also makes it clear that PM fights restrictions on event sponsorship at least in part because these events provide the company with venues in whcih they can gather personal data on smokers (the company refers to gathering smoker information as "name generation.") The says PM should "Increase [the company's] presence at major events and use as source for name generation."

Also of interest to health authorities should be the information on Page 145 (Bates No. 2051363569) that describes PM's strategy to divert health department funds away from tobacco control and towards "support[ing] other health programs (pre-natal care, half-way houses, etc.)" (areas which don't threaten cigarette sales):

"Long Term Goals

• Counter ASSIST Program in 17 states: - Work with grass roots organizations to divert state health department funds, equivalent to the amount of ASSIST funding, to support other health programs (pre-natal care, half-way houses, etc.).

(Note: ASSIST was a widespread public health effort in the early to mid 1990's in the U.S. to reduce smoking rates in 19 states)

PM's plans also included efforts to eliminate public health restrictions on tobacco that were already in place:

"Rollback Program:

- Particularly in localities, introduce legislation to reinstate marketing activities, such as sampling and couponing, that have been banned or restricted.

- Pass state preemption."

The report also refers to African Americans as an "important volume opportunity" while simultaneously describing how to fight the idea that the industry targets minorities in their promotions,

This and much more information within this document shows that far beyond simply making and selling cigarettes, Philip Morris actively worked on a number of fronts to fight efforts to reduce the many public health threats the company poses.

Fields

Quotes

Industry volume of 509.2 billion in 1991 was down 12.6 billion versus 1990, continuing a declining trend which began in 1982. Over the past five years, U.S. cigarette volume has declined at a compounded annual rate of 2.6%. Factors which continue to negatively influence volume include the health controversy, the declining social acceptability of smoking, increased smoking restrictions, particularly in the work place, rising excise taxes and prices, and the decline in the number of new people reaching smoking age.

During the upcoming five years, we anticipate cigarette volume to continue to decline based on an additional excise tax increase in 1993 and the continued hostile smoking environment. Sales of cigarettes in the U.S. are projected to decrease an average of 2.7% per year between 1991 and 1996, reaching 443.5 billion in 1996...

Notwithstanding the forecasted industry decline, PM-USA will continue to address the challenge this forecast provides in order to lessen the effect on our volume and share. Corporate Affairs will continue to provide information and support issues concerning social and work place restrictions which have been placed on smokers. They will also continue to lobby for minimal state and federal excise tax increases, so as to lessen retail price increases. From a product development perspective, PM-USA will develop new products to meet the continued demands of our changing market, e.g. more flavorful, ultra low tar products. We will also continue to develop new and innovative products to address the perceived health and social issues surrounding the cigarette industry. Finally, PM-USA will continue to moderate price increases of our premium brands in order to make smoking less cost prohibitive.

[From page 6]:

These sociodemographic trends highlight the importance to PM-USA of maintaining its historic strength among entering smokers, retaining smokers as they age, and gaining share among older age groups so that we can continue to increase our market share to reach 49.7% in 1996.

Race/Ethnicity

...While smoking incidence varies considerably among these groups (ranging from 16% among Asians to 29.7% among Blacks), it is evident that they represent an important volume opportunity. During the plan period PM-USA will hold its near 50% share of Hispanics, and will increase its 19.8% share among Blacks primarily via the launch of B&H King Size. In addition, we will build upon our 61.3% share among Asians through intensified marketing programs.

[From Page 7]: INDUSTRY VOLUME DECLINES BY NIELSEN COUNTY SIZE

This industry erosion in major metros is being driven by smoking incidence declines and broader smoking restrictions, acting to offset population shifts which have favored cities and suburbs...

[From Page 9]: Smoking continues to be skewed more heavily toward the less educated. Approximately 38% of smokers (age 25-54) have attained some college education, whereas approximately 55% of non-smokers in that same age group have some college education. Similarly, 20.9%, of smokers (age 25-54) did not graduate from high school compared to 10.7% of non-smokers.

[From Page 24]:

SOCIETY SUMMARY

Cigarette smoking has evolved from a majority adult habit to a minority act, enjoyed by a weakened social constituency. Consequently, the political and social base of the smoker has eroded and opinion leaders have begun turning against the industry, supporting legislation, litigation, and non-profit anti-smoking groups that seek to restrict smoking. During the plan period, the cigarette industry will be required to defend and protect its rights as a result of:

• States increasing state excise taxes to compensate for weak local economies and fiscal budgets.

• Employers adopting employment practices that discriminate against individuals based on legal lifestyle decisions pursued off premises during non-working hours.

• Anti-smoking forces continuing using the environmental tobacco smoke controversy to restrict people's right to smoke.

• States and local governments legislating restrictions and bans on the sales and marketing activities for tobacco products.

• Legislations requiring that cigarettes be self-extinguishing.

• Environmentalists mandating product specifications on the marketplace.

• Attitudes towards smoking.

[From Page 27]: SMOKING RESTRICTIONS

The environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) controversy continues to be used by anti-smoking forces to restrict the opportunity to smoke. In recent years, despite success in defeating state-wide bans, the number and scope of these restrictions have increased significantly in the private sector and they are expected to continue to grow. Because of this success at halting or modifying state legislation restricting smoking, anti-smoking activists have turned to federal agencies and localities to push for additional restrictions.

[From Page 30]: MARKETING RESTRICTIONS

During the plan period, attacks on the tobacco industry's marketing practices will focus on the allegations that industry marketing activities are aimed at encouraging youth to smoke, as well as women and minorities. Also, federal funds will be used to force local communities to restrict tobacco marketing practices. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Louis Sullivan's American Stop Smoking Intervention Study program (ASSIST) will provide $135 million over seven years to seventeen state health departments "...to change attitudes about smoking and counter the sinister marketing strategies of the tobacco industry. "ASSIST will be augmented by the American Cancer Society which will provide $25-$30 million in additional funds for lobbying and smoking cessation campaigns.

[From Page 144]: Marketing and Sales Restrictions

The organized anti-smoking movement is attempting to restrict or ban our ability to reach existing smokers with marketing and sales vehicles considered legitimate tools for virtually all other products. Restrictions on advertising, sponsorship, sampling, couponing and sales practices limit our efforts to increase market-share. By restricting the industry's ability to use widely accepted marketing and sales techniques, the anti-smoking forces are attempting to reduce public acceptability of cigarettes.

PM-USA's goal is to defeat proposed marketing and sales restrictions or bans. PM-USA is proactively supporting state legislation to preempt local restrictions, as well as to establish tobacco industry marketing and sales guidelines as state law...

ISSUe:

The anti-smoking movement is using false charges about the targetting of youth, women and minorities to advance legislation restricting or banning the marketing and sale of cigarettes.

Strategy:

| !

PM-USA will use two strategies to combat marketing restrictions. First, we will advance our position that smoking is an adult custom, that PM-USA does not want minors to smoke and is working in cooperation with retailers to prevent minors from purchasing cigarettes. Second, we will demonstrate to elected officials, public policy decision makers, the media and consumers that advertising, sampling and sponsorship are forms of free speech protected by the First Amendment. To increase awareness of company/industry initiatives we will use advertisements on the Youth Initiative in selected publications..

1992-1994

Marketing Freedoms

Develop state legal fellowship programs with the American Civil Liberties Union and

• Washington Legal Foundation to oppose bans or restrictions (Freedom of Speech).

Develop Sports Sponsorship Coalition to promote/defend corporate right of sponsorship.

• Coordinate with minority interest groups to counter anti-smoker's claims on "targeting".

Long Term Goals

• Counter ASSIST Program in 17 states: - Work with grass roots organizations to divert state health department funds, equivalent to the amount of ASSIST funding, to support other health programs (pre-natal care, half-way houses, etc.).

Rollback Program: - Particularly in localities, introduce legisla- tion to reinstate marketing activities, such as sampling and couponing, that have been banned or restricted. - Pass state preemption.

Company
Philip Morris
Author
Presumed corporate author, Philip Morris
Recipient
Presumed corporate recipient, Philip Morris
Region
United States
Named Organization
Abco Markets
Alza
Amcon Dist
Amer, American Tobacco
American Cancer Society
American Lung Assn
Assist, Assist
Bakery Confectionery + Tobacco Workers I
Bat, British American Tobacco
Big D Drug
Brooke Group
Brooke Partners
Business Week
Bw, Brown & Williamson
Carolina Cigarette
Chicago Tribune
Church Dwight
Ciba Geigy
Circle K
Citicorp Consumer Banking
Clark Oil
Coalition for Solid Waste Solutions
Colonial Heights Packaging
Conference of North East Governors
Core Mark
Cygnus
Dmk Holding
Dominicks Finer Foods
Eagle Star
Eby Brown
Elan
Eli Witt
Emro Marketing
Epa, Environmental Protection Agency
Executive Steering Comm
Fareway Stores
Fays Drugs
FDA, Food and Drug Administration
Fleming Companies
Ftc, Federal Trade Commission
Gallaher
General Foods
Globe
Grand Union
Grocery Mfg
Hhs, Dept of Health and Human Services
House
Impel Marketing
Japan Tobacco
Kmart
Kohlberg Kravis
Kroger
Lederle
Liggett Ducat
Lm, Liggett & Myers
Loews
Lor, Lorillard
M Sosnick
Ma Legislature
Mai Basic Four
Managed Care Networks
Management Steering Comm
Marion Merrill Dow
Maverick Markets
Mays Druag Stores
Mclane
Medic Discount Drug Stores
Mitsubishi
Mobil
Mobilizations
Moodys
Msa
Natl Assn Mfg
Natl Conference of State Legislatures
Natl Consumer League
Natl Waste Management Assn
New Valley
Nielsen
Niosh, Natl Inst for Occupational Safety & Health
Ny Times
Old Dominion
OSHA, Occupational Safety & Health Administration
Pace Membership Clubss
Pharmarcia
Piggly Wiggly
Pillsbury
PM Customer Advisory Council
PM Magazine
PM-Eec, PM-Eec
Price Chopper
Public Interest Research Group
Quaker Oats
Quick Trip
Rh Macy
Richmond Blue Cross Blue Shield
RJR Nabisco
RJR Nabisco Holdings
RJR, R.J.Reynolds
Roper, Roper Org
Samelson Leon
Sams
Save Mart
Scientific Advisory Board
Sheetz
Simon Schuster
Smokers Advocate
Smokers Caucus
Solid Waste Task Force
Southland
Spectrum Stores
Standard Poors
Steering Comm
TI, Tobacco Inst
Time
Trade Council
Tripfoods
Tropicana Products
Tsg, Technical Study Group
US Census
US Congress
US Senate
Volk Group
Walmart Stores
Warner Lambert
Western Union
Wetterau
White House Competitiveness Council
York Engineering
Litigation
Stmn/Produced
Named Person
Allen, R.J.
Anderson, D.
Buno, T.
Campbell, W.I.
Dangoor, D.
Dimarco, R.
Fitzmaurice, R.A.
Ford, Y., J.R.
Gorden, R.
Griscom, T.
Gunzenhauser, G.R.
Halset, W.G.
Hendrix, R.S.
Higgens, H.E.
Iauco, D.
Isbister, D.
Jarett, J.
Johnson, C.
Johnston, J.W.
Juchatz, W.
Kauffeld, R.W.
Laux, F.
Lebow, B.S.
Mau, T.
Merlo, E.
Moore, W.
Nelson, J.
Newlin, L.
Ockers, J.M.
Oglesby, M.
Orlowsky, M.
Ridgeway, S.
Robinson, R.W.
Schindler, A.
Schindler, A.J.
Schroer, J.
Spears, A.W.
Steele, H.
Stewart, M.
Surgeon General
Szymanczyk, M.
Tedder, D.R.
Tisch, L.
Turner, J.C.
Volk, S.J.
Welsh, D.M.
Wexler, L.
Type
REPT, REPORT, OTHER
CHAR, CHART, GRAPH, TABLE, MAPS
DRAW, DRAWING
Subject
marketing
marketing strategy
Corporate strategy
legislation
public health policy
public smoking law
Fire Safe Cigarettes (Products)
promotions
marketing restrictions
advertising
Youth Smoking Prevention Programs (Industry-sponsored youth smoking prevention programs)
Designed to stave off further legislated marketing restrictions

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INDUSTRY SUMMARY The tobacco industry is characterized as mature and declining, yet with high margins for a low cost consumer product. During the plan period, the industry will be affected by changes in volume, demographic, product category, trade channels, marketing mix, and pricing. Industry Volume Trends Volume trends will continue to be impacted by the health controversy, the declining social acceptability of smoking, increased smoking restrictions, particularly in the workplace, rising excise taxes and prices, and demographic changes. Population Trends By 1996, only 12% adults under the age of 25 and over two-thirds will be 35+, as compared to 1986 which had 16% adults under the age of 25, and slightly over half the age of 35+. This sociodemographic trend highlights the importance of PM-USA's ability to maintain its histcric strength among entcring s.mcker.t, ;eiain srr:oicers as they age and gain share among oiG'ar c~e rr::°`- ; ~~ : _st °d?e can °.i;¢inY!a !J 1rGrvsae our r; ar:{Gt share. ~itiler socioderriographic trends that will impact PM-USA over the plan period are: • Changing racial/ethnic mix of the U.S. population. • Decline in smoking incidence in urban environments. • Decline in smoking among white collar workers. Product Category Trends The discount category will continue to be a dynamic segment in the tobacco industry, supported by growing legitimacy, advertising support, brand/packing proliferation and/or repositioning, and couponing. In addition, reduced tar cigarettes will continue to grow. Product concepts and research that may lead to new products include: low tar/high flavor, reduced nicotine, low smoke, sc:rrated smoke aroma, flavored cigarette and new devices. Tr,qrfe- CharTneis Competitive pressures, rising costs and thin profit margins will continue to affect wholesalers resulting in consolidations, mergers and liquidations. In addition, retail environments will continue to be affected by consumer's buying patterns which are in response to their lifestyles and economic circumstances. f>rlarketing Mix Non-media expenditures for merchandising and couponing have steadily risen over the last five years. During the plan period, this increase is expected to continue as competition reinvests a substantial portion of price increase revenue into retail promotional programs to stabilize premium brands and to gain share in the growing and intensely price competitive discount category. Retail Pricing Over the plan period, premium retail prices (cartons) are forecasted to increase 9.1 % annually. The average retail price of 85mm premium products (without coupons) is projected to approach the $20.00 per carton mark in 1992-93 and the $3.00 per pack mark in 1995- 1996. . 2
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INDUSTRY VOLUME TRENDS Industry volume of 509.2 billion in 1991 was down 12.6 billion versus 1990, continuing a declining trend which began in 1982. Over the past five years, U.S. cigarette volume has declined at a compounded annual rate of 2.6%. Factors which continue to negatively influence volume Include the health controversy, the declining social acceptability of smoking, Increased smoking restrictions, particularly in the work place, rising excise taxes and prices, and the decline in the number of new people reaching smoking age. During the upcoming five years, we anticipate cigarette volume to continue to decline based on an additional excise tax increase in 1993 and the continued hostile smoking environment. Sales of cigarettes in the U.S. are projected to decrease an average of 2.7% per year between 1991 and 1996, reaching 443.5 billion in 1996. While premium brands will continue to fuel the decline, decreasing an estimated 5.8% per year, discount brands will continue to grow, albeit more slowly, presumably keeping some consumers in the marketplace. INDUSTRY VOLUME TRENDS Total m=~~~--=Prerniurn ~ ~ ~ `~ D;SCOL'nt 600 400,' 200-; 626.5 0 '81 '83 '86 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '96 ~n•ce; PM-USA Marks'ing Research . COMPOUNDED ANNUAL VOLUME GROWTH (9/0) 1986-1991 1991-1 ~ 1a Total Industry (2.6) (2.7) Premium Brands (6.3) (5.8) Discount Brands 19.7 4.7 3 L
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Notwithstanding the forecasted industry decline, PM-USA will continue to address the challenge this forecast provides in order to lessen the effect on our volume and share. Corporate Affairs will continue to provide information and support issues concerning social and work place restrictions which have been placed on smokers. They will also continue to lobby for minimal state and federal excise tax increases, so as to lessen retail price increases. From a product development perspective, PM-USA will develop new products to meet the continued demands of our changing market, e.g. more flavorful, ultra low tar products. We will also continue to develop new and innovative products to address the perceived health and social issues surrounding the cigarette industry. Finally, PM-USA will continue to moderate price increases of our premium brands in order to make smoking less cost prohibitive. Assumptions This industry forecast is based on the following assumptions: • During the plan period there will not be any major socio-political or technological upheaval affecting the industry. • The federal excise tax will rise $2.00/M in January 1993 to $12.00/M per the budget acc°'~rd r^?chcd in f.overnsJvr 1990. There are no further increases in fcueral yxcise taxes expec;vd duririg siyp 1992-1996 eian penod. ~ Wtzte excise taxes will rise approximately 7-10% per year. The 1991 weighted average state excise tax was 25.4 cents per pack, a 6.9% increase over 1990. Assuming a growth rate of 10% per year, state excise taxes are forecasted to increase to approximately 40.9 cents per pack by the end of the plan period. • The industry continues to remain relatively price inelastic due partially to the availability of lower priced alternatives, such as Bristol, which had an average retail carton price (85mm) of $13.18 in 1991, compared to $17.48 for a premium brand. Elasticity is assumed to be -.37. This means that for every 10% increase in price, industry volume will decline 3.7%. 4
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POPULATION TRENDS Age An important trend continues to be the aging of the U.S. population. By 1996, only 12% of adults will be under the age of 25 and over two-thirds will be 35+. 18-24 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 25-34 ADULT POPULATION AGE PROFILES 1981-1998 35-44 45-54 55+ Although there will be 6.3 million more smoking age adults in 1996 relative to 1991, the gains will occur among adults in older (over 35) age groups. ADULT POPULATION GROWTH BY AGE GROUP 1991-1996 of People 6.5 3.7 -4.4 25-? A 35-44 5 45-54 VVT
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Incidence Historically smoking incidence has been lower among the older age groups, and smoking incidence overall is expected to continue declining due to health, social and price pressures. As a result, there will be 47.2 million smokers in 1996 compared to 52.6 million in 1991. I Smoking incidence By Age Group Incidence % 1991 1 g9g Difference Under 25 30.9 30.0 (0.9) 25-34 33.5 29.3 (4.2) 35-44 31.3 26.8 (4.5) 45-54 30.0 25.6 (4.4) 55-64 24.2 20.6 (3.6) 65+ 13.6 11.5 (2.1) Source: Roper (1991 Incidence) and PM-USA Business Planning Estimates (1996) A demographic model, built up with data from the U.S. Census, Roper and Consumer Tracking sources, indicates industry losses due to sociodamocraphic effects such as aging iquating. ;'very five jp:°:r v;~riod s;ncs 1981, the irdustry has ;ast over ':C0 bialion units 41 tZlei4 (e.g., 3,23.7 biiiiocl "t,:llits ii1 1981 519.0 bill'ion units in 1986). Cigarette volume from new adults (18-22 years of age) entering the market has not compensated for these losses, and the volume contribution from this group is declining. In 1981, smokers in this age group contributed 73.6 billion units to the industry; however, in 1996 this group of new smokers will only contribute 41.7 billion units. SOCIO/DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON INDUSTRY VOLUME 13 Existing Smoker Volume ® New Smoker Volume 1981 Existing Volume CAG% Source: Business Planning Estimates 1986 (3.70) 1991 (4.61) 1996 (4.63) The :;qe composition of inc'r,try vOitIrrle will by ?.fferted by these chairfgvs in the po;^.°'°.`.ion so that by 1996, 62.8% of volume will come from smokers over the age of 34 vs. 56.3% in 1986. 6
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Industry Volume By Age Group (%) 1 S91 j 99g Diff r~ence Under 25 13.9 13.4 (0.5) 25-34 26.9 23.8 (3.1) 35-44 24.6 25.9 1.3 45-54 16.6 18.9 2.3 55-64 10.5 10.2 (0.3) 65+ 7.5 7.8 0.3 ISource: PM-USA Business Planning Demoqraphic Model (1996) These sociodemographic trends highlight the importance to PM-USA of maintaining its historic strength among entering smokers, retaining smokers as they age, and gaining share among older age groups so that we can continue to increase our market share to reach 49.7% in 1996. Race/Ethnicity r~iother trend ~vh`rlh will Increase in importence over the plan period is the changing mix r i-he U.S, population. By 19U'3, v;e estimate ahere will be 2 tni;iio;7 ;.D ac Bia~,~, Asian or i ~is; ar ic. The Asian Adult population will increase 48.~% compared to 1981; the number of Hispanics will grow 34.4% and the number of Blacks will increase 22.5%. ADULT POPULATION INCREASE 1981 vs 1996 White Black Source: U.S. Census Bureau and PfN-USA Business Planning Estimates Hispanic Asian While smoking incidence varies considerably among these groups (ranging from 16% among A.3ia^s to 29.7% amorig Blacks), it is evident that they represent an important volume uppcrtuntty. During the plan period PM-USA will hold its reLr 6G;o sihara of H,spanius, and will increase its 19.3% share among Blacks primarily via the launch of B&H King Size. In addition, we will build upon our 61.3% share among Asians through intensified marketing programs. 7
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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SMOKING INCIDENCE BY RACEJETHNICITY (1991) White Black Hispanic Source: Roper, Hispanic Tracking and PM-USA Business Planning Estimates 28.1% 29.7% Asian Nielsen County Type Population density, characterized by Nielsen A,B, C and D counties, is a strong determinant of industry performance. Industry volume has been declining in urban environments at a rate several times that of non-urban counties. INDUSTRY VOLUME DECLINES BY NIELSEN COUNTY SIZE Source: SPACE: 3 Month Average Nielsen A Nielsen B Nielsen CJD This industry erosion in major metros is being driven by smoking incidence declines and broader smoking restrictions, acting to, offset population shifts which have favored cities and suburbs. 8
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CHANGE IN SMOKING INCIDENCE BY NIELSEN COUNTY SIZE 1986 vs 1991 %Char aej 1.5 -6.0 Nielsen A Source: Roper I I I I -3.0 Nielsen B Nielsen C Nielsen D During the plan period it is anticipated that the pressures and restrictions in urban areas will continue to mount, potentially affecting PM-USA's business since 68% of our smokers reside in Nielsen A & B counties. Occupation Since 1981, smoking prevalence has decreased among all occupations (white collar and blue collar) for males. Among females, decreases were generally smaller, with the smallest decline occurring among the blue collar workers. SMOKING INCIDENCE BY OCCUPATION (%) Males Females 1>3$1 1m SiJ1S. 1$$1 1m t'i119i* White Collar: Professional, Top 29.3 21.6 (7.7) 28.1 21.8 (6.3) Management Small Business 40.6 29.9 (10.7) 38.6 28.0 (10.6) Owners Clerical and 35.0 28.5 (6.5) 33.9 23.7 (10.2) Sales Blue Collar: Skiiied/Unskilled 44.6 37.7 (6.9) 37.1 34.8 (2.3) Laborers Service Workers 41.1 36.2 (4.9) 35.4 31.0 (4.4) Source: Roper I I I I I I i I I I I I 9 I
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Education Smoking continues to be skewed more heavily toward the less educated. Approximately 38% of smokers (age 25-54) have attained some college education, whereas approximately 55% of non-smokers in that same age group have some college education. Similarly, 20.9% of smokers (age 25-54) did not graduate from high school compared to 10.7% of non- smokers. Smokers (25-54) 13.9% 24.5% 40.7% Source: Roper ~ Non H.S. Grad H.S. Grad ~ ~ Some Cc!lera El College Grad 10.7% in general, since 1981 Incidence has declined more among men than women: • Smoking among males has declined -at all education levels. • Among women who did not graduate from high school incidence has remained flat. • Among female college graduates smoking incidence has declined less than among men, possibly due to a lower base incidence in 1981. 'OK:~a ATT,t;:N°rEna•t' W ~. - ... . . . . ~....-. ~ (%) Males Females 1$81 j.i3$1 S'ch44 1i38j j.$$1 SrhQl. Non-High School 42.3 37.4 (4.9) 32.0 32.6 +0.6 Gr.;duate High School 40.1 33.1 (7.0) 33.9 28.0 (5.9) Graduate Some College 34.4 29.0 (5.4) 30.2 24.1 (6.1) College Graduate 26.8 19.7 (7.1) 20.8 17.0 (3.8) Source: Ro er These changing profiles, coupled with an aging population, may have particular irnpact on PM-USA, whoGe c°<<noqraphic riroi:le is skewed to younger, better educated and hi^:ier income smokers. 10 EDUCATIONAL PROFILE 1991- Non-Smokers (25-54)
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PRODUCT CATEGORY TRENDS Discount Category Demographics The discount category will continue to be a dynamic segment in the tobacco industry, supported by growing legitimacy, increased advertising support, brand/packing proliferation and/or repositioning, and aggressive couponing. During the upcoming five years, discount brands' share of the industry is expected to increase approximately 11.1 points over the plan period, to 36.1% in 1996. During the past five years, the discount category has grown 16.1 share points to 25.0% in 1991. This market category has grown in every demographic segment, even among groups that historically have been less price conscious, for example, smokers under 35 and those living in Nielsen A counties. Discount Penetration By Demographic Group 1986 vs. 1991 Men 3.8% 13.2% Vlo m e n 4.6 16.5 ' i r:" Under 25 1.5 5.3 25-34 3.3 12.2 Over 35 U 1$-4 35-44 5.3 16.2 45-54 4.9 19.5 55+ 5.7 20.9 No College 4.7 16.9 Some College 3.9 13.0 Nielsen A 2.5 8.7 8 4.5 14.6 t~ 5.2 20.0 D 6.3 23.1 Source: PM-USA Consumer Tracking Read: In 1986, 3.8% of all male smokers smoked a discount brand. 11

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