Anne Landman's Collection
Technological Forecasting for Tobacco to 900000
Abstract
This curious 1976 Brown & Williamson (B&W) forecasting document appears to list factors that B&W believed could affect tobacco sales through the year 1990. Page two of the document (Bates No. 670118374) contains mathematical equations such as
N = NO + (NS-ND)
...where "NO" = "number of users in prior period", "NS" = "number of new users" of tobacco products), "ND" (number of product "dropouts"). Another factor mentioned is "Q," which stands for "tobacco per dose" and "doses per day." The category "New users" was defined by "number relapses, number teenagers, product characteristics, alternatives...parents peers, opportunity..." Number of doses per day was determined by factors such as "[smoking] opportunities, satiation, price, consumer income..."
The category of "dropouts" (from using the product) is described as "number deaths, anti-smoking graduates, alternatives, propaganda..."
Subsequent pages list lifestyle factors that could potentially affect tobacco use, including:
"ghetto culture (drug use, etc.), transcendental meditation...drug habits, attitudes...compatibility of future drugs...moral outlook...hedonism (immediacy of pleasure)"
A category called "Use System" (Bates page 670118182) lists existing and predicted forms of tobacco administration including things like "chewing gum, toothpaste, shavecream, suppository, syringe kit, implant, cooking..." The next page, entitled "Method of drug application" includes "injectible, aerosol, spray, smoke, lotion, solution, implantation," and "ingestion." Below that, an amount of drug (nicotine) is listed,
"1.6 mg for non-smokers (causes dizziness, nausea, vomiting) 6.5 mg for smokers (causes no untoward effects)" (The above appears to indicate knowledge of development of a tolerance level for nicotine, considered by many to be a hallmark of addiction.)
"Body entry points" proposed by the list include "mouth, nose, armpit, knee joint, elbow joint" and "skin." "Absorption point[s] for Systemic Effects" include "mouth, lungs throat, nose, anal, vaginal, intestinal, skin" and "bloodstream."
"Action Point[s]" include the "brain...bloodstream, respiratory system" and "central nervous system (CNS)."
"Physiological utilities and functions" include "dependence, tolerance, antiobesity...cardiovascular effects (constriction), mobilization of blood sugar...slowing of reactions...addictive (nicotine)..."
The list of "Medical diseases" includes "emphysema, asthma...coronary artery disease...cancer of tongue, lip...miscellaneous..accidents-fire, allergies, withdrawal symptoms...Problems of Pregnancy...spontaneous abortion, low birth weight, infant mortality, infant neurological damage..." and much more.
Other categories listed include physiological and psychological utilities and functions of tobacco (the latter list includes "wish for adult status" and "rebellion against authority,") techology affecting growth, processing and forumlation of "dose-forms" of tobacco and alternatives to tobacco (which include marijuana, "synthetic drugs," "Zen Buddhism," "self-hypnosis" and "Yoga.")
The entire document is fascinating and offers an intimate view of how the tobacco industry views its own products, the position that tobacco products hold in human culture, they industry's knowledge about their products' physical, physiological and psychological effects on consumers, and how and why tobacco products appeal to consumers.
Fields
- Notes
A second set of Bates numbers is printed horizontally along the bottom of each page of this document. I referenced the Bates numbers printed vertically along the lower right edge of the pages.
- Quotes
See document images.
- Company
- Brown & Williamson
- Author
- Presumed corporate author Brown & Williamson Tobacco Company
- Recipient
- Presumed corporate recipient Brown & Williamson Tobacco Company
Document Images
