Tobacco Documents Online

December 2, 1976 Mr. J. H. Sherrill, Jr. Mr. G. E. Harlow Attached are sulmnary sheets of incidence and rate estimates from 1965 to 1985. There are two sets of numbers. The first set is based on inoidenoe figures published by HEW for 1965 through 1975 and projected through 1985. These numbers were used to estimate rates based on known i~dust~y volume. -~he second set is based on MRD's Monitor for 1975 with estimates for 1965 and 1970 based on trends derived from other sources. According to the HEW projections, total incidence among the population fourteen years of age and older is declining. This is true for both men and women. However, smoking incidence among the younger females is increasing. Inoidence.a~ong women fourteen to fifteen years old increased from 1.7% in 1965 to 13.5% in 1975, while in the sixteen-nineteen age group, inci- dence increased from 11.0% to 21.5% for the same period. Young women eighteen to twenty increased in incidence from 30.0% to 33.0% for the ten year period. Conversely, inoidence of young males has declined over a comparable period, although the level of incidence was about the same or even a little higher in 1975. Smoking rate (number of oigarettes smoked per day) is increasing. Although there is no definite explanation for this, two hypo- theses could be considered. First, since inoidence is decreasing it could be assumed that those who would be most likely to quit would be the lighter smokers. This would tend to leave the heavy hard-core smokers behind thus inoreasing overall smoking rate. Another theory is that the trend toward high filtration cigarettes has caused people to smoke m~re i~ order to receiveequal smoking satisfaction. This, too, would increase the smoking rate. Thus far, neither of these theories has been substantiated. The second source of incidence, and rate estimates is based on Monitor. There is some disadvantage in using Monitor.da~s~nce the history does not span a very broad time frame. However, we feel that we can use Monitor to track incidence on a continuing basis over time in the future. Although Monitor data is not ourrently available by age breaks, we hope to compile this infor- mation on future runs. Monitor shows incidence about flat between 1973 and 1975. Smoking rate shows an increase as in the HEW data.

Mr. J. H. Sherrill, Mr. G. E. Harlow Page Two December 2, 1976 Jr 0 Both the HEW and Monitor incidence and rate values when combined with population figures were forced to yield actual and projected industry volume. Finally, in the course of examining the various sources of inci- dence information, I have tabulated a summary which provides inci- dence estimates from various studies for the time periods in which they were conducted. The level of incidence varies by study but all seem to depict a declining trend in incidence. If you have any questions regarding sources or methodology, please let me..know. John R. Hribar Marketing Research Department JRH:rac Attachments Mr. P. E. Galyan

INCIDENCE TRENDS * Male 1965 1970 197__5 198___~0 14-15 6.5 13.7 i0.0 9.5 16-17 19.0 27.3 24.0 23.5 18-20 46.0 45.0 36.0 32.1 21-24 64.3 49.8 41.0 38.2 25-34 59.9 46.7 44.0 43.2 35-49 59.5 ~ 48.5 47.0 46.2 50+ 38.2 31.7 30.4 29.1 1985 9.0 23.0 30.6 36.5 41.5 44.4 27.6 Total 14+ 47.3 39.7 36.6 35.7 34.8 Total 18+ 51.4 42.1 39.0 37.7 36.5 Total 21+ 51.9 41.8 39.3 38.2 36.9 Female 14-15 1.7 9.3 13.5 14.0 16-17 ii.0 17.0 21.5 22.0 18-20 30.0 26~0 '33.0 36.4 21-24 " 45.2 32.3 34.0 35.4 ~25-34 42.6 40.3 35.5 33.8 35-49 39.9 38.8 36.5 35.9 50+ 24.7 21.5 19.7 17.7 Total 14+ 31.6 Total 18+ 34.3 Total 21+ 34.6 14.5 22.5 38.0 36.0 32.5 35.0 16.0 29.0 28.1 27.6 27.0 30.7 29.2 28.5 27.7 31.1 28.9 27.9 27.0 Total 14+ 39.2 Total 18+ 42.6 Total 21+ 42.9 *Incidence for 1965 34.2 32.2 31.5 30 .7 36.2 33.9 32.9 31.9 36.2 33.8 32.8 31.7 through 1975 as published by ~EW with 1980 and 1985 projected by MRD.

RATE TRENDS * Male 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 14-15 12,0 14.9 17.0 14.8 13.0 16-17 15.6 17.9 19.7 18.8 18,5 .18-20 19.1 21.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 21-24 25,0 26.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 25-34 26.0 29.0 33.5 33.7 34.0 35-49 32.4 34.2 37.4 37.7 38.1 50+ 28.1 30.0 33.2 33.4 33,6 Total 14+ 27.7 29.1 32,5 32.9 33.5 Total 18+ 28.1 29.8 33.2 33,6 34.1 Total 21+ 28.8 30.7 34.0 34.3 34.7 Female 14-15 9.4 10,0 12.4 10.8 10.5 16-17 15.2 14.9 17.6 21.4 23.6 18-20 15.9 18~0 21~8 22.4 23.1 21-24 ' 19.7 21.9 25.8 26.5 27.3 25-34 22.1 24.6 28.9 29.7 30.'6 35-49 25.7 27.4 31.0 31.8 32,8 50+ 23.1 24.9 28.4 29.1 30.0 Total 14+ 22.7 24.4 27.6 28.4 29.3 Total 18+ 22.9 24.9 28.4 29.0 29.9 Total 21+ 23-4 "25.4 29.0 29.8 30.5 Total 14+ 25.7 27.0 30.3 30.8 31.6 Total 18+ 26.0 27.6 3i.0 31.5 32.2 Total 21+ 26.5 28.3 31.8 32.2 32.8 *Rates have been calculated to force to industry volume.

MONITOR * XNCIDENCE TRENDS 1965 1970 1975 198____~0 198__5 Male (18+) 48.1 38.8 38.6 37:3 36.1 Female (18+) 31.0 27.4 27.7 27.0 26.2 Total (18+) 39.5 33.1 33.1 32.1 31.1 RATE TRENDS Male (18+) ~2.8 32.8 34.9 35.2 36.4 Female (18+) 27.4. 27.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 Total (18+) 28.0 30.2 31.8 32.3 33.0 VOLUME TRENDS ~ Male (18+) 318.2 300.4 343.6 365.0 387.6 Female (18+) 183.8 192.9 222.7 239.0 247.7 Total (18T) • 502.0 493.3 566.3 604.0 %35.3 are estimates based Rates aEe forced to produce indust[y volume. *Year 1975 incidence is actual, while 1965 and i970 on other sources.

lg 5__~5 ~-astman Male 16+ Female 16+ Total 16+ Male 21+ • Female 21+ Total.21+ Male 17+ Female 17+ Total 17+ ~EW Male 21+ Female 21+ Total 21.~'" Male 12-18 Female 12-18 Total 12-18 Male 18+ 53.8 Female 18+ 27.4 • Total 18+ 40.6 Male 18+ Female 18+ Total 18+ ~onitor Male 18+ Female 18+ Total 18+ 1964, 53.1 31.9 42.5 52.4 32.5 42.4 196~6 44.0 26.0 34.0 51.9 34.1 43.0 49.3 32 ..i 40.7 196'7 47.0 35.0 41.0 14.7 8.4 11.6 INCIDENCE 1969 1970 41.0 28.0 34.0 50.6 35.5 ~2.7 44.0 34.0 39.0 42.2 30.5 36.4" 18.5 15.2 43.0 35.0 39.0 15.7 13.3 14.5 32.4 32.2 25.3 24.7 28.7 28.3 15.8 15.3 15.6 33.-5 33.6. 25.9 25.6 29.6 29.4 38.8; 37.51 28.9 I 28.7 197___~5 39.3 28.91 34.11 33.8 26.8 30.2 38.6 27.7 33.1 31.0 25.3 28.0