Tobacco Documents Online

8102 Young Smokers Prevalence, Trends, Implications, and Related Demographics

Abstract

This 1981 Philip Morris (PM) marketing research report discusses the importance of teenage smokers as young as 12 to PM's financial future. It has been used as a trial exhibit in Florida, Missouri, Minnesota, and Texas. The document discusses smoking rates among children as young as 12. It was authored by Myron Johnston of PM's marketing research department, and was approved by Carolyn J. Levy, who in the mid-1990s was appointed to head PM's Youth Smoking Prevention Department. Johnston states,

"For over fifteen years certain demographic and social trends have been moving in a direction favorable to industry growth. No, one by one, these powerful social and demographic factors are turning against us...

The trends are:

1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage smoking is now declining sharply.

2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of teenage smokers is declining sharply....

...While this news is not good for the industry, I believe we can use these data and other data I plan to report on to good advantage in order to minimize the adverse effect on Philip Morris."

Johnston concludes that "the industry can no longer rely on an ever increasing pool of teenage smokers to replace adult smokers lost through natural attrition."

He says, "It is important to know as much as possible about teenage smoking patterns and attitudes. Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer, and the overwhelming majority of smokers first begin to smoke while still in their teens..." Johnston concludes that peer pressure among teens NOT to smoke is a major reason why so many teenagers were staying nonsmokers, and states that perceived peer disapproval of teenage smoking had increased sharply in 1980. He also attributes this public health success "in large part to the anti-smoking propaganda," which had apparently been successful in convincing teens that they incur great risk from smoking. The document clearly portrays the decline in teenage smokers as a threat to the industry, and discusses positioning Philip Morris to incur the least harm by gaining the most market share. This document may indicate reasons why PM became such an aggressive company at gaining market share worldwide.

The document shows the importance of young smokers to the industry and particularly to Philip Morris, who manufactures the leading starter brand among youth(Marlboro). It also shows how well public health efforts to cut smoking were working (particularly among youth) prior to the industry's becoming involved in youth smoking prevention issues (in the mid-1980s). It also shows the importance to the industry of continuing to collect data on trends, attitudes and preferences among youth, which the industry's current multitude of "youth smoking prevention" programs now allows them to do openly.

Fields

Notes

This document was first posted to Doc-Alert in 1980. The links have been updated. Thanks to Kirsten Nielsen for suggesting a re-post.

Quotes

For over fifteen years certain demographic and social trends have been moving in directions favorable to industry growth. Now, one by one, these powerful social and demographic factors are turning against us, and by 1985 all will be operating against us.

The trends are:

1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage smoking is now declining sharply.

2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of teenage smokers is declining sharply.

3. After increasing 18 percent from 1967 to 1976, the absolute number of 15-19 year-olds will decline 19 percent during the 1980s, with the period of sharpest decline beginning in 1981.

4. Beginning in 1981 the absolute number of 20-24 year-olds (the ages during which average dai1y cigarette consumption increases most rapidly) will begin to decline, after increasing for the past 20 years.

5. For the first time in a decade of polling, average daily cigarette consumption as reported on the National Panel has declined.

6. In 1985, after declining for nearly a decade, the number of people in the age group most disposed to quit smoking (ages 45-54) will begin to increase dramatically.

It is inevitable therefore, that industry sales Will begin to decline within the next few years. Thus, Philip Morris USA can sustain its past rate of growth only by an acceleration of the rate of increase in market share. While this news is not good for the industry, I believe we can use these data and other data I plan to report on to good advantage in order to minimize the adverse effect on Philip Morris.

This report deals with only one of these trends--teenage smoking and attitudes toward smoking, together with related demographics. Subsequent reports will cover the social, economic and psychographic characteristics of teenage smokers and the demographics of other significant age groups. Because the major data sources have just become available, and because of the importance of these data to the company, I have elected to report the data in a series of memoranda rather than wait andi issue all of the material at once.

[From the Summary, on Page 1000390808]:

It is important to know as much as possible about teenage smoking patterns and attitudes. Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular cusomter, and the overwhelming majority of smokers first begin to smoke while still in their teens. In addition, the ten years following the teenage years is the period during which average daily consumption per smoker increases to the average adult level. The smoking patterns of teenagers are particularly important to Philip Morris...Furthermore, it is during the teenage years that the initial brand choice is made: At least part of the success of Marlboro Red during its most rapid growth period was because it became THE brand of choice among teenagers who then stuck with it as they grew older. Bewteen 1967 and 1976 thenumber of 15-19 year olds in the U.S. increased 18 percent, and there was also an increase during at least part of that period in the percent of teenagers who smoked cigarettes...Average daily consumption of these young smokers also increased, so that between 1968 and 1974 the number of 12-18 year olds who smoked ten or more cigarettes per day more than doubles. Industry sales were also aided by the fact that this period was one of rapid increase in the number of people aged 20-24 - ages during which average daily consumption increases...Beginning in 1985 there will be ain increase...in the number of people reaching ages at which people typically begin to quit smoking or cut down (ages 45-54). We will no longer be able to rely on a rapidly increasing pool of teenagers from which to replace smokers lost through normal attrition...

...Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers, Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline in the number of teenage smokers...

[From Page 1000390827]:

Reasons for the Decline in Teenage Smoking

There is no question but that peer pressure is important in influencing the young not to begin smoking. A decade and more ago it was a major reason why teenagers began to smoke. Now it is a major reason for their not beginning to smoke. Perceived parental disapproval of teenage smoking has remained constant over the past five years, as has the level, of teenagers' own disapproval of adult smoking. Perceived peer disapproval of teenage smoking, however, has increased sharply in 1980 (Chart 16). This decline in teenage smoking is also attributable in large part to the anti-smoking propaganda: The high school seniors were asked "How much do you think people risk harming themselves (physically or in others ways), if they...Smoke one or more packs of cigarettes per day." The percent answering "great risk" increased from 51 percent in 1975 to 65 percent in 1980, with the sharpest increases in 1976 and 1979. The perceived risk of smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day is now 20 percentage points higher than the perceived risk of smoking marihuana regularly, and is higher than the perceived risk of trying heroin once or twice (Chart 17).

Company

Philip Morris

Author

Daniel, Harry G. (PM R&D Planning Coordinator c. 1975-82)

Research Professional

Johnston, Myron E., Jr. (PM Marketing researcher)

Levy, Carolyn J., Ph.D. (PM Youth Smoking Prevention Sr.VP (1998-2002))

Carolyn Levy is a long time Philip Morris scientist who has intimate knowledge of smoker behavior, psychology and PM's addiction studies. Studied and reported at PM on smoker psychology, 1974-75. Studied the role of nicotine in reinforcing smoker behavior in 1976 (1003293201). Levy also has knowledge of the importance of the youth market to future cigarette sales. In a Mar. 31, 1981 PM report Levy wrote, "Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer...The smoking patterns of teenagers are particularly important to Philip Morris." (1003636640) Appointed Assistant Director of Consumer Research at PM in 1988; Sr. VP Marketing and Sales Information in 1995; Was Sr. VP of PM's Youth Smoking Prevention Programs 1998.

Recipient

Daniel, Harry G. (PM R&D Planning Coordinator c. 1975-82)

Research Professional

Goodale, Thomas T. (PM Marketing Mgmt., Marketing Services 1977-93)

(PMI's Introduction to Privilege Log and Glossary of Names, Estate of Burl Butler v. PMI, et al, April 19, 1996)

Levy, Carolyn J., Ph.D. (PM Youth Smoking Prevention Sr.VP (1998-2002))

Carolyn Levy is a long time Philip Morris scientist who has intimate knowledge of smoker behavior, psychology and PM's addiction studies. Studied and reported at PM on smoker psychology, 1974-75. Studied the role of nicotine in reinforcing smoker behavior in 1976 (1003293201). Levy also has knowledge of the importance of the youth market to future cigarette sales. In a Mar. 31, 1981 PM report Levy wrote, "Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer...The smoking patterns of teenagers are particularly important to Philip Morris." (1003636640) Appointed Assistant Director of Consumer Research at PM in 1988; Sr. VP Marketing and Sales Information in 1995; Was Sr. VP of PM's Youth Smoking Prevention Programs 1998.

Meyer, L.

Thomson, R.

Zoler, Jon N. (PM Director of Marketing Research, c. 1982)

Region

United States

Litigation

Stmn/Produced

Broi/Trial Exhibit

Flag/Trial Exhibit P-2033

Morm/Trial Exhibit

Stmn/Trial Exhibit P-10339

Txag/Trial Exhibit P-12354

Txag/Trial Exhibit P-2033

Stmn/Selected

Named Organization

Chilton Research Services

Natl Clearing House on Smoking & He

Natl Inst of Education

SGC, Surgeon General's (Advisory) Comm

Survey Research Center Univ of Mi

Univ of Ca

Univ of Richmond

Type

MRRT, MARKET RESEARCH REPORT

CHAR, CHART/GRAPH

Subject

youth

youth initiation

target market

Target/Youth (pre-18) (Target Groups)

market forecast

market segment

market trend

marketing research

smoking initiation

smoking prevalence