Tobacco Documents Online

Note for Dr. L.C.F. Blackman ADVERTISII~ BA~ L.C.F.,S. • L 4 AI.IGIg$1, ~._~ .~.-:~::~.~=. e~ ,~.-~ ....................... .(~,;.;:., ....................... ................ • o~ ............. °..o.°o-o, ........................ J Gerry Si~lall has asked ~e to gi~ you a List of countries in whid~ total amrket sales have ~ at about the samm l-re1 after a tan or seriom restricticm have b~n ~. As I am sure ~0u appreciate, many factors are q~rating at any cz~ tim to influence total market sales e.g. price and inumm advertising, and it is rot always p~sible to distinguish betwen the separata impact of these varL~bles. Statistical methods seek to establish relationship, but they can often conceal as mud% as they reveal e.g. the ~ report cn the U.K. ~mrket. Furthermore, the impact of restricticms whether they be ~v~mtional media orientated cr total ~ans never have an im~dlate impact but ~ only reasonably be expected to affect markets over the icnger term. Notwithstanding the above, ~here are a number of mLrkets with either complete bans or severe restrictiuns~whid~ can be examined viz: Finland Eastern Bloc Iceland lran Jordan Norway Saudi Arab~ Taiwan Thailand - ~ ~ z/3/'~ - bars but no reliable sales data available - ~ ~m zliln - bans hut no reliable sales data availabZe - a tanbut ways round it exist - a ban but no reliable sales data available - a ~n ~= z/7/~s - a ban but no relaible salm data available - ahanbutways round it exist - a partial tan Bogeyer, far a variety of reascr~ e.g. ro data available far l~p~tion of a ~n, only FinlaM, ~y, Italy and S~ lend them- selves to any sort of analysis for your purposes, and really, of these only FL-/and is truly appropriate. A Summary of these four appears cn page 2 of this note. <:D 0 t2q ~D m

-2- Total Cigarette ~ Sales (Billions) Ban 1970 Ban 1962 Ban 1975 (Milli s) Ban 1978 1968 2.7 1960 48.3 e 1968 2.7 1961 51.9 e "1970 2.8 "1962 55 • 8 e 1965 66.1 • 1975 3.2 1975 88.7 1980 3 • 4 1980 98.6 1973 1,746 1976 8.1 1975 1,780 1977 6.4 "1975 1,781 "1978 6.6 1976 1,685 1979 6.9 1977 1,901 1980 7.1 1978 1,841 1979 2, (350 1980 2,227 * Year of the ban e ~sti~ted "me o=nclusion from the above, cn a sisplistic level cnly, is that the bans have had no impact in any of the four o~untries. Perhaps more i~3~rtantly, in the t~) countries ~here the hans have theoretically existed for over ten years, (Singapore and Italy) the market has cont/nued to s adily. If this data is g~ing to be used ~r any purpose other than general ha~ information, a muoh mere detailed analysis will be required in order to account got the in~act of the external w~iables ol~ratirg si.ultaneously with the ed M. c.c. Messrs. G.J. Si~lall T.R. Bates .-Im~