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De~_.mber 8, 1981 ~,...i~{"~:~. : .H s . E . N. M o n aha~/ / :~""'%~OM : Midge Barnes .{~]I~{~BJECT: AGING 18 YEAR OLD S:,OKERS INTO NFO P.%)~'L D=TA : ;::';:::~[i~J~J[~':i[!~::i~i~e ourpose of this memo is to reco~rm~end aging all known under 18 year old smokers into the NFO Panel Data at age !8 and classifying them as "Continuing Smokers, with only ~n~se smokers new to the ........ business classified as "new" smokers. This represents maintenance ~:~::~:::~:::[:~.[~[~:.gf the current method of tabulation. .... ~i~:'::~::i::~ ~b G ROUND: ........... ~s you are aware, NFO conducts a Mass Screening of panel members on a quarterly basis. One-half of the oanel is mailed to in ] ]]]b~nuary and July, the other half in April and October This screen-@ ~ ...... ing produces on a semi-annual basis: ~::f:.~:::.::~fi~[i~::::::~i:.i:.::~::~ 100,000 r e s p o n d e n t s ( 65,000 f a m i I i e s ) ::[~ ...... 28,000 smokers ~i:'~%~i::::~::~::~::::~ . 18,000 matched smokers ~ ........................... {~ (smokers in two consecutive 6 month ~:~ ..... '":~ p e r i o d s ) :::~:.~.:~.::~.::~:.~:~:~tched smokers provide yearly averages on switching gains and losse~ :~ ...... [::~::~ong with other pertinent information. ..-:~}~[:~::[[[:'~[:'::~.. the quarterly mail-out auestionnalre. , a census is taken of the ~ ........... ~tal household to determine the household size as well as the sex :::~:~[hd age of each household member. Additionally, informatfon on the .{~::::~::[::::~%~:~e of tobacco products is obtained from each household member. As ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: result, information is included, although not solicited, on house- ........... hold me~ers under 18 }'ears of age ~":~computerized questionnaire will be used in January, 1982. The age and sex of each £amil'] mer:,Ler will be shcwn across the top of the questionnaire with {r:~'-~-ucticns .... to add r.ew ' -e~.~-~,-__s or delete members no longer in the household. 'Fh{s will allow us to track individuals over time and distinguish new s:,ok<./s and .4uitters from other smokers. Thus we will be tt-scking all indivJdue!s <z<:_~J].~ss of a~e or incidence. CX 69-A RM033565

"Is. E. X. Monahan December S, 1981 Pace 2 :~::~%~:.:%'.:}~ince our policy is to orocess only those adult smokers 18 },ears !'~.:~:~l~:i~::.gf age or older, a determination was needed on aging the 18 }'ear Olds smokers into the Panel data. Two alternatives were considered. • smokers n = .::~:~...:~!il 1 Ac c e p t a i i 18 v e a r o i d • ' i t o ~ ~~""::iiI::~:''. the Panel data as new smokers. ~ 2. Classify only those smokers new to the business as "new smokers" and classify the under 18 }'ear o]ds aging into the ii?'i ............. panel at 18. as continui, ng smokers. =================================== assist in this determination a review of the NFO Panel data was~ .... ~onducted to assess the imoact of 18 \'ear old smokers on the switch'~ ============================= - ~ ................. lng results. -:....:..............Currently about 5% of all smokers considered new to the business :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::8 years of age and about 3% of all switchers are 18. iiii::~!::~!i:.::iiii:.::iii!~f we accept all 18 }'ear old smokers into the Panel data as 'new' i::~ ...... %hose proportions shift as follows: 11.5% of smokers considered .:~i~::~!~!~..::~:~!~o the business would be !8 years of age and there would be no 18 i?" "ii!ii:::: . i::iiiiii::i::i~iiii::i::i::i::i~ear old switchers on the panel. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :~Ii~I~I::~BASE - NEW SMOKERS :::gi~}.!~!:,.:~ii~ 8 YEAR OLD SMOKERS ~::~::~::~::~::~::~ ~ YEAR OLD SMOKE RS CURRENT ACCEPT ALL 18 YEAR OLD SMOKERS AS NEW METHOD 2160 2322 106 268 4.91% ~ 11.54% 5518 ~ 5356 162 ~ 0 2.94% 0% SOURCE- NFO SWITCH]N~,= DATA CX 69-B RM033566

Dece:ber S, Pa:e ] i~:"~Additionally, the ~atio of total 'news' to switchers increases by CURRENT ACCEPTING ALL 18+ AS NEW SMOKERS :.Is. HOD TOYAL NE~~S/SWITC!{ERS TOTAL NEWS 39% 43% TOTAL SWITCHERS 61% 57% ....... Because switchers as a proportion of total smokers is about 25%, 18 ~!~:~.i~r old switchers represent less than 1% of total smokers. Never- " .:~.::~:::~he!ess, when we look at the switching results at the brand or style :~::ii::::~:::::~:i:~e],~ we could sic~n~ficant]y chan~e our ex]stin~ trends. If you have no objection to the recoms'.endation, we wi_] add under 18 [~ ........... year old smokers into the Panel data at age 18, classified as i ...:iii!~i~bntinuing smokers' !!~':":..,....~RK E T I~I'G D E V E LO PM E N T DEPARTMENT ====================== CX 69-C RM033567