FTC Joe Camel Documents
Smoking Incidence Has Been on a Decline Since 1965 (Attachments)
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• Smoking incidence has been on a decline since 1965.
1980
1981
!:!::~:~:: i i1:~:8 2
ii~ ..... 1986
......... I~.87
L...i.iiiii:.~alU ~
Smoking 18+ U.S. Total Number
Incidence Population Of Smokers
(000) (000)
42.6
36.2
33.9
33.1
32.4
31.1
30.6
29.5
28.9
28.0
27.3
124,573
135,290
148,804
163,997
166 647
169,266
171,683
173,805
175,792
177 669
179,623
Population Estimates - U.S. Census
Smoking Incidence - HEW (1965-1975)
RJR Tracker (1980-87)
53,024
48 964
50,377
54,281
53,960
52,706
52,475
51,214
50,739
49,685
49,025
CX 34-A
RM050017
0
(D
0

INCIDENCE
4.5
40-
35-
30-
o 25- , t ~ ~ I ~ ~
o 65 70 75 80 81 82 85 84 85 86
-' YEAR
~990 ~90~
Produced to Federal Trade Commission pursuant to subpoena
dated June 6, 19ff7.
CX 34-B

200
POPULATION
18+ Years Old
180 -
160-
140 -
120 -
o-, 65 70 75 80 8182 83 84 85 86
o YEAR
87
g990
I#90£
Produced to Federal Trade Commission pursuant to subpoena
dated June 6. 1907.
CX 34-C

TOT # OF SMOKERS
56
52
5O
0
0
0
48
I I I I l I
I I
75 80 81 82 85 84 85 86 87
YEAR
~'990
I#90£
Produced to Federal Trade Commission pursuant to subpoena
dated June 6, 19~7.
CX 34-D

TEENAGE SMOKING
The numl~r of teenagers ~o smoke has substantially and continually declined
since at least 1974 (See Chart i).
- In 1982, Line numl~r of teenage smokers was about 50% t~e 1974 level.
:{i~,:- This decline in the number of teenage smokers is almost entirely a result
of the dramatic decline in teenage smoking incidence.
- The decline in the incidence of teenage smoking holds for individual
age and sex breaks as w~ll as for total 12-17 year olds.
This downward trend in total teenage smoking is substantiated by the trend in~
smoking among high school seniors. In 1985, only 19.5% of high school
seniors smoked daily - a nearly 30% drop in incidence versus 1975 (See Cha~t
Study concluded in 1982.
this subject.
RM050021
AS of 1/20/88, no further information available on
CX 34-E
o
o

CIGARETTE USE BY TEENAGERS
~!~I Population (mm) (12-17 years)1
ii!~:ii~!~al Smoking Incidence ( 12-17 years )2
To~l Smokers (mm) (12-17 years)2
Smokin~ Incidence by A~e/Sex2
1974 1976 1977 1982
25.5 25.3 25.0 22.3
25.0 23.0 22.0 15.0
6.4 5.8 5.5 3.3
12-13
13.0 Ii.0 i0.0
25.0 20.0 22.0
16-17
38.0 39.0 35.0
3.0
i0.0
30.0
27.0 21.0 23.0 16.0
24.0 26.0 22.0 13.0
Ipopulation Estimates - U.S. Census
2Health, United States, 1985, - U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services. Percentage reporting used in past month.
Study concluded in 1982.
this subject.
RM050022
AS of 1/20/88, no further information available on
CX 34-F
0
O~
o

CIGARETI~ USE BY HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
26.9 28.8 28.8 27.5 25.4 21.3 20.3 21.1 21.2 18.7 19.5
S~(3URCE: University of Michigan Study, "Monitocing the Future: A Continuing
%::::~i~i~::~::ii~,~? Study of the Lifestyles and Values of Youth" -- 1985.
RM050023
Study concluded in 1985. As of 1/20/88, no further information available on
this subject.
CX 34-G
(.n
o
0

Profile data by age indicates that ULT category skews 50+. Importantly, less
than 5% of 18-24 year olds smoke ULT brands.
FFLT
i:::::::::~!i:~i:i::i:~iii~i:~:i::i::i Index to total
ULT
ii~ ..... Index to total
":'::::::::::~ Oil rce "-
RJR Tracker (1987)
CATEGORY PROFILES
Total 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
41.0 50.3 44.3 40.9 33.2
i00 123 108 I00 81
39.6 42,8 43.5 37.9 36.1
I00 108 II0 96 91
12.2 4.7 9.8 13.8 16.3
i00 39 80 113 134
RM050024
0
O~
o
C~
CX 34-H

The Profiles of major ULT/FFLT brands positioned on "low tar" also indicate
an older skew.
NOW
Zndex to total
'::ii:!:i:::::::::i:!:~!~M
VANTAGE
i~ ...... Index to total
.:SIS:..
:i:::::::~i SOurce: R JR Tracker (1987)
CATEGORY PROFILES
Total 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
1.8 .2 .9 1.9 3.4
iO0 II 50 106 189
1.0 • .2 .6 1.0 1.6
i00 20 60 i00 160
3.2 1.2 2.8 3.8 4.1
I00 38 86 119 128
4.1 2.3 5.5 4.9 2.8 ~
I00 56 134 120 68 ~
RM050025
o
o
............... CX 34-I
