Tobacco Documents Online

~,cv v 7. ~ ~;~ n~ f AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Room 703 • 810 - 18th Street, N.W. •Washington, D. C., 20006 (area code 202) 393-3253 EXEc:UTIVE DIRECTOR DUI:ALD C. RILEY February 24, 1964 Mr. John E. Leard Managing Editor Richmond Times Dispatch Richmond 11, Va. Dcar Mr. Leard: As President of the American Statistical Association, I am re- plying to your .letter of January 20. I am sorry to be so long in replying, but I have wanted to take a look at the Surgeon General's report, to talk to several of the officers of the Association, and to think about the problem. As the new head of a big educational institution, I have many unavoidable and time-consuming commitments. In any case, no official action could be taken until May 1, when the Board of the Association has its next meeting. To Mr. Donnahoe's proposal that the ASA appoint an official com- mittee to review and evaluate all statistical evidence on the subject and to set guidelines for future studies, I have uncovered both gen- eral and specific objections. There is a strong feeling in the ASA leadership against panels of experts who give an official stamp of approval on statistical quest.ions. The better way to arrive at the truth is to submit results, particularly controversial ones, to the critical evaluation of colleagues through submission for publication in scholarly journals. Before publication there is competent refer- eeing; after publication there is extensive review, discussion, crit- ical comment, often rebuttal. The regular process of exposing studies and conclusions to review by•your colleagues is the best way to settle scientific controversies. . Those who feel this way, and I am among them, would oppose the appointment by the Surgeon General of an advisory panel on smoking and health. However, it was done and indeed the American Statistical Association on two occasions within the last ten years appointed small "blue ribbon" committees to look at questions of public interest. One such group commented on Dr. Kinsey's studies at the request of the officers of a major foundation, and one studied television ratings at the request of a Congressional committee. In both of these circum- stances it is fair to say that a large number of leading statisticians in the country had not participated in the work under review. The BOARD OF DIRECTORS ALBERT H. BowKER, President Vice Presidents Directors JOHN I. GRIFFIN T. A. BANCROFT Louis J. PAxa,Dlso RAYMOND T. BOWMAN, Past President ROBERT E. JOHNSON ROBERT E. BECHHOFER ALMARIN PHILLIPS W. ALLEN WALLIS PresicZent-Elect GERALD J. LIEBERMAN , RALPH A. BRADLEY FREDERICK F. STEPHAN DONALD C. RILEY, Secretary-Treasurer FREDERICK MOSTELLER SEYMOUR GEISSER ~KEN,NETH B. WILLIAMS

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR DUtiALD C. RILEY AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Room 703 • 810 -18th Street, N.W. • Washington, D. C., 20006 (area code 202) 393-3253 Mr. John E. Leard, February 24, 1964 - page 2 smoh;ing and health issue has been before the profession since 1956; most experts on medical statistics and biometry have participated in the stud- ies or already taken a look at the data. Some believe smoking increases mortality from various causes; others are skeptical. Indeed, as Mr. Donnahoe says, many of the questions he asks have been raised by Dr. Jo- seph Berkson in the ASA publications. Even if the Board shou ld decide against my better judgment to have such a committee appointed, I would be hard pressed to find a distinguished group who could take a fresh look at the problem. What I can do is to make sure that critics of the Surgeon General's report have ample oppor- tunity to express their views in our publication and in our meetings. I will try to see that a specific critical review article of the report is solicited for an early issue of the Journal. Sincerely yours, Albert H. Bowker President AHB/fjb BOARD OF DIRECTORS ALBERT H. BOWKER, President Vice Presidents Directors JOHN I. GRIFFIN RAYMOND T. BOWmAN, Past President ROBERT E. JOHNSON T. A. BANCROFT Louis J. PARADIso ROBERT E. BECHHOFER ALMARIN PHILLIPS W. ALLEN WALLIS, President-Elect GERALD J. LIEBERMAN RALPH A. BRADLEY FREDERICK F. STEPHAN DONALD C. RILEY, Secretary-Treasurer FREDERICK MOSTELLER SEYMOUR GEISSER KENNETH B. WILLIAMS r