Tobacco Documents Online

m_en ~na-~.~mok~ z-,--~noth~r - ~-n~..~ ker;, --wh~er ~ -&l.ike--~.-~k-- ,.Ozl-a~l,-thes~, other, thi~gs~ ~.~ . ,..,. .................................... , At the end of 44 months, there were 600 ~d some deaths in the nonsmokers ~d 1300 ~d some deaths in the smokers. ~out 15 or 20 times as m~y smokers as nonsmokers had died of l~g c~cer. . [m~[ highly respected m~ers.of the scientific co~un~ ~rom the Ve~ ok-v~gorous exception to the statistic~ methods ~d how the n~ers were use~. For. ~ were from ~! .cz~n_i~~ ~, .... ~ '.~Z"~ ~-l .... " ...... " ' -, Z~!~ ~ ~tazt~n--:~--- fc~ the ~dustrial northeast ~d midwest ~d virtually none from the ~tain states. ~R. 0BERt L~g c~cer is predo~n~tly.a disease of people who live in large cities or in industrial ar~as, whereas people who live in ~ral co,unities have a much lower incidence of lung c~cer. CO~ENTIAL • . ~00a~S4 M~OTA TOBACCO LI~GATION TI N 0077936

.PR.OF. BROWNLEE: The Hammond Survey for the American Can.cer Society suffers from the defect there was no/ a / properly defined population. So we just don't kn~w what the population was. / • .. / | / DR. EYSENCK: The ordinary statistical met s that have been use~. are really quite worthless. The/y don' t prove | anything a~ all, except that there may/. may not be a / relationshipJ _ , / ., DR. ,OBER: The actual number of cases of lung cancer-- . although recognizable and significant--is not terribly,. ~/~ / t.erribly.large, ,whereas the ~umber. of. people who smoke / ~lgarettes is extremely larg~_. And any theory which '(~~~"~'. ' explains why A causes B also has to "explain why A does ~ ~¢~ not'cause B in the people in whom it does not occur. • And this is the one thing which these people have not ~ ~ explained. It's an incomplete theory. .N RRATC,~. ~ ~7~ ,,=~ -expia~neu.,wny une ~'~rted death. rate from all~ypes of respiratory, diseases has steadily. declined sin/e 1900, while cigarette consumption has d/n " "" increase almost directly opposite~ proportions. / ' " "' " ny.~. low.nce is made by proponents of the smoking-lung ~for other possible causes of cancer'of~t~h~ CO~ENTIAL • MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION ~r'00213~

.. . PRIVILEGED AND CONHDE~ " - i."~iced as required by t1~ ~ourt's March 7,1998 Order State of Minnesota, et al. v. Philip Morris, et aL - 12- ~ Corot File No.: C1-94-856~ ,DR. LEVINE: There are substances in the air in every city in the United States--and I suspect in every city in the world-=which are.known to produce cancer. ~ Herbert ~ Rateliff~has noted a si~ifie~t inergase in the fre~en~ of l~g c~cer ~ water fowl--especially in two species of ducks at the Philadelphia zoo--located in a t~ic~l city air pollution ~ea. s s~le ~at they were ingesting materxal ~at has be~ deposited in this mud ~d that ~cretion by way of ~e lungs is a possible ~it of the carcinog~s ~at are t~en in through the mouth. CO~ENT~: T~ 0077938 M~SOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

The other possibility is that they are inhaling it. If SO~ they seem to be peculiarly susceptible to inhalation Of carcinogens. Siberi~ tiger died in the Philadelphia zoo. Cause of death as dete~ned by autopsy: c~cer of ~e lung. Others point out additional factors statistically associated with the disease. ~ere's the matter of a. marked differ~ce of the rate by sex. ~G~TON: ~is disease is a male disease. It is DR. six or eight to one in favor of m~es. Wom~ do get the disease, it is t~e. But £hey do not get it wi~ the s~e fre~ency as the m~e. ~~ .... =~ain~-rather constant. It has .not increase, ~d ~~n~.~s-.t~ng ~out the m~ked ri~e in th~ incid~ce- ,. M~SOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

'"-, ~ D-~dT,'. . ,~, .'d'-li :~--I~,| ~e same " w~agent, that one has ass~ed--~ote--~epid~ic .... NAR~TOR:. ~other ch~lenge has be~ base,on how you measure what really caused a person's dea~. Dia~ostic ' cap~ility wi~ respect to c~cer of th/l~g is a re- latively recent develo~m~t. " y . " g~ools .now for diagn " as to what ~e prev~ce~f l~g c~cer was at ~at. . p~cul~ t~e. . . • . / .. ..• . . . ~TOR" Most mot ity stat~ti~ in ~e cig~ette' . . ~ity ~tat~ti~ in ~e cig~ DR. OBER: / dea~ ce~ficates ~otoriously ~less akrerson ~as ~een ac~rate./~ ~e first place, ~ffi~l~e~ sure antopsi~, somet~es it' s v~ whiP, died of. ~ " ~ ~" ~TOR: ~at ~st~es ~ght occ~ ~ d~a~o~s "of /g c~cer based only £n death c~ifica~es?. ~ CO~E~I~ ~~so~ ~o.~cco u~,6~,o~ T~N ee7794e

, ~d m~y c~cers arising in other parts of ~ body ~el I filtered ou~ ~d ~ deposits--~hieh are ~alled , metastatic c~cer--in the lung. ~at are diagnosed as ~ c~c~r without ~utopsy may not be lung c~cer ~all, but c~cers in o~er org~s.. .~R. OBER: ~n I read ~ article in the medical litera~re whlch i~..~ased upon death certifZcates I stop readifig it'~ ~ bec ere's no point in my wasting my t~e. ~"~ve ,.,I/er thlngStion, to read which, are based on. . a fi=er founa~-; ~R~TOR: 'Though th: mo~t :t::klng associatlu** One =zaz_~:z=:.:i.. -- corona~ illness. ~ we fo~d that there were2more th~ twice as m~y s~kers ~at died of heart disease as nonsmokers. " N~TOR:/ M~y ~dversaries of smoking support~ '~ view. Oehers ~e not satisfied with ~his s~ple conclusion. ' 007794 CO~E~L ~ , M~SOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

~: Few people ~e~i~e that actually the.j..~ ,~tatistic~l risk so-called which has been given~it by "~~lic He~th Se~ice of heart disease o~'~i~okers t~ States, J~p~ ~d Switzerl~d--~h ~rom arteriosclerosi~ ~t~ 1955~~- ~hile it was rising by more~ 30 percen~ ~ such/. "~ow-cig~ette-cons~ption. . . . coun tries~weden,. "~ " ~ ~s we've seen w~ ~espec~ ~o lun~ ~ce~,~e of statistics ~ l~ted. ~e . S~geon General's repo .... had a& much specific~ly stated that statistical methods c~ not est~lish proof of a causal relationship in ~ associa- tion. Yet ~ere were some whosy n~tural desire to fi~ ~. ~% .... ~t~j' z-1~z.- 1 Aii~h~zrt fizt--- ~ay have led ~ to disreg~d ~is caution. " el aft .... _~9"~ ~~d .ee~.. hea=%- dlseas~. . - TI N 0077942 CONFmENTIAL ~ 00Z~S0 M~SOTA TOBACCO LI~GATION

/~ ............................ Natlonal Heart and Lung Institute points out that we've learned so much ~bout how to treat heart ailments that we overlook how little we "know about their causes. "We tend to obscure our ignorance, " t~e Institute says, "by making it seem that a problem has been so'ived when it has, in fact, Only been half-solved." FFdV~EGED AND CONFIDENT!~.y. ~ as required by the Cohort's ~',.~,~ ~ . State of Minnesota, et al. v. Philip Court File No.: C1-94-8565 CONFIDENTIAL MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION TIMN 0077943

~igarette. smoki~and corona~isease,- I. think we~ . . -1969 -- The~eric~'Hea~ ~s earch director . ',told Congress~/ "Let's be sure we ~derst~.the. Heart ~Associati'o/~osition: We do not .say that we ~ave • . . . ,data says. cigarett~ smoking causes coron~ / ~ui~.~).. ', ..... -. ~ ... ~.~uk'-::~? What avenues 'of meaningful research should be explored if the answers aren't all in? ,. Many authorities feel that more attention should be given to the smoker rather .than the smoke. What kind of people smoke and why? Do they differ from those who don't smoke? DR. SELTZER: Smokers tend to be more agressive, outgo£ng, - extroverted people--hard driving, full. of tension. They tend to marry more often, divorce more often, move their houses more often, change their occupations more often ~han do nonsmokers. TIN~N 0077944 CONFIDENTIAL .'~-00~139Z MINN~OTA TOBACCO LITIGATION ?RI~LEGED _Cou~ File No.: C1-9@BF6~

DR. SELYE: The human being smokes only because he likes to smoke. Nobody smokes because he .h,as, to smoke. "J~L~d ,~-~-~ emmet.-.-~ ~o~ ~o smoke. Su £~ l-~i~,, i-~-i~ ~ d~~ ~:to~l oth~~~~~ .... ~---,~ ..... , .... ~' .~,' DR. CEDE~OF: Say that you are a certain t~e of person ~d you like to..s~ke. You may also then be:.more apt to start driving or more apt to h~ve a stressing job or something like that. . NAR T~R: ~or the past several years, Dr. R~e Cederlof of Sweden's National Institute of P~lic Heal~ has studied the effect of smoking ~d ..... -- . ~ , ~ % ~. C~E~OF:~ Ye~ ~w. we did ask for a lot of other ~~a~-~.~.~~ ex~ ~a for.. d~e,~. smok~r,,.i~,monozyg~ca=that is id~tical-~twi~s ~i1~-"~ " ... . ~would. ~"up what we have found here in such a ~ay ~at ._S_~k~ng.does not se~ to cause he~t disease, that is the' ~d_.~-heart disease we are studying--u6rona~ heart - ~.' CONFmENTI 00 13 3 M~SOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION TIMN 0077945