Tobacco Documents Online

July 26, 1980 Re: Dr. Carl Seltzer Dr. Carl Seltzer is interested in doing re- search Jn connection with the constitutional hypothesis, i.e., the smoker, and not the smoking, is responsible for the reported statistical association between smoking and various diseases. During the last several years he has collaborated with Dr. Gary Friedman and others in analyzing data at Kaiser-Permanente in Oakland, California. The study was designed to investigate cardiovascular risk factors; however, Dr. Seltzer's ~ain interest was in testing the constitutional hypothesis. His idea was to study cardiovascular risk factors in smokers and ex-smokers prior to their quitting. Dr. Seltzer completed his re- search last year and the results were published in The Journal of Chronic Diseases, a copy of which is attached hereto. In essence, he found that ex-smokers, before they quit smoking, had lower risk factors for coronary heart disease than for smokers who persisted. Dr. Seltzer would now like to do a similar study of possible differences between smokers and nonsmokers but needs a data base which includes biological, psychological and health characteristics of a sizeable group of young

-2- people prior to the time they choose whether or not to smoke. His idea is to see if smokers differ significantly from nonsmokers prior to the time they decide to smoke. Obviously it is not easy to find such a population. One such population is the Child ]lealth & Devel- opment Studies (CHDS) in Berkeley, California, which is now headed by Dr. Bea van den Berg. CHDS was begun by the late eminent biostatistician, Dr. Jacob Yerushalmy, who was also interested in ~udying the constitutional hy- pothesis. In fact, several years before his death Dr. Yerushalmy expressed interest in doing the kind of study that Dr. Seltzer would now like to undertake. About 20 years ago Dr. Yerushalmy began regis- tering pregnant women at CHDS with a view towards study- ing their pregnancies, birth experiences and later develop- ment of their children. Over the years he was able to enroll approximately 20,000 women in CIIDS an~ CHDS has been able to maintain contact with approximately 15,000 children who were followed through prenatal gestation and delivery. Moreover, a sizeable number of these children were ex~nined at about the age of 5 years, again at about the age of I0 years and most recently at about the age of 15 years. As a result of these examinations, CHDS hes obtained extensive information about these children and

"'3-- their parents. The information incl~des biological and psychological characteristics of the children, as well as their medical histories. At the time of the adolescent examination in 1977-78, 273 had begun to smoke. Recently Dr. Seltzer approached ~r. van den Berg to see if she would allow him to study these children, particularly the 273 smokers and any others who may have taken up smoking since the last exam. Dr. van den Berg, who is currently receiving research funds from The Council for Tobacco Research -- U.S.A., Inc. for other research, has agreed to let" Dr. Seltzer use her study population and to work with him on this research, provided CHDS is reimbursed for its expenses, including time. Accordingly, Drs. Seltzer and van den Berg have agreed to undertake a feasibility study to see whether or not the smokers, prior to their beginning to smoke, differ significantly from the nonsmokers in such matters as psychological characteristics, biological markers and health experiences. They estimate this study to take one year and to cost $56,000 ($26,000 for Dr. Seltzer and $30,000 to reimburse CHDS.) This project has been dis- cussed on several occasions with Dr. Alvan Feinstein {who has long had &n interest both in this subject and this data), who will continue to provide assistance to the project.

BUDGET SELTZER Salary Travel Overhead $ 15,000 5,000 20,000 6,000 $ 26,000 CHILD HEALTH & DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Statistician 20% Programmer 25% Computer time Secretary 50% Overhead 6,000 5,000 i0,000 5,000 26,000 4,000 30,000 TOTAL . . $ 56,000