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MEMORANDUM TO MR,. AUSTERN October ii, 1968. • ~ Re: MateriaLs Rieceived on. • ~ September 2'3 from. Dr o Horn By. letter datedl S~ptemb,er 23, 1968,. Dr. Daniel Horn o:f the National Clearinghouse for Smoking and Health transmitted to u,s three pieces, of material: (i) a copy o:f the. Interviewer Inst:ruction Booklet for the C.hilton. Survey among teenagers; (2)a copy of the September 1968. edition -of the magazine Diseases of the Chest, which contains a transcript of proceedings of the National Forum on [Doctor'~s] Office Management of Smoking Problems; and (3) a copy speech entitled Physicians' Attitudes Toward. Their Involve- ment in smoking Prob:lems of Patients, delivered by Drs. Horn and Green at the Nationa,1 Forum, mentioned above. These~ ma-. terials have all been carefully analyzed,, and their pete:n- tlal ~s.efulness ~s suggested in this memorandum° 0nly the speech by Drs. Horn and Green appears to: conta, in materials useful to. u:s.. The speech, is supported by. iI t~bles wh.ich contain tabulation:s of add~t$onal results from the National Opinion Research Center's. survey of smok-. Ing by physician,s. It will. be recalled: that. this survey was use~d as a basis for' the widely p'ub:liciz.ed allegation that. lOO,O00 doctors have quit smoking. We have been en- dieavoring, for almost a year' to obtain the full resu,lts of the survey, but until now. have been. successful ~n procuring a, tabulation of results as to only one ques.tion~. The new materials supplement the results already ob~ain,ed, but stil~ d,o not constitute a. full set of results for the survey, Table i is of particular interest. It sets forth. the breakdown between current, fO~rmer, and never sm,oke.rs obtained on each of the three separate mailings,, an,d the telephon,e interview, the results of all of which were combined to arrive a,t the 100,O00 doctors estimate. Th,fs table s.tronEly supports the hypoth,esis suggested in my Memorandum to. Mr. Clagett da,ted February 2, 1968!,. the{ "the docto:rs most likely to respond to I.a mail survey] would be those who had stopped smoking. ... The table shows that of th,o:se respcmding to. th,e first mailing only 22..5% were current smokers, while 4!0o8% were fOrm,er' smokers.. The

second mailing produced, 26.6% current smokers and 39'..0% former smokers.. By the third mailing the number of cur- rent smokers had risen to: 28%,~ while former smokers had declined to. 33,8%1. A.nd: of those interviewed by tele]~_hone, 32°7% were current smokersj while 33@8% were former smokers. These resu.lts certainly, provide a rational basis for postu-. lating that. the percentage of former smokers among the re- mainder of the non-respondents would be even. lower than that for the telephone interview respondents.. Table 3 categorizes physicians as never, form,er, and cm,rren.t smokers by age group@ Int;erestin;gly, there are more never smokers (48.8%)i an,d fewer current, smokers (1231.:3%) among the under 30 age group than in any other category. These figures suggest that the reported declin~e in smoking among young people is reflected in the smoking habits of phys icians~, Table T' tabulates thee length of time which, has. elapsed since each of the former smokers last smoke~d ciga~ rettes. It is striking that 26.4% of the former smokers last smokedl cigarettes more than 1B years before the survey, and that 14.7% last smoked between l0 and 131 years prior to the survey. Thms,. over ~1% of the former smokers had ceasedl smoking well before the current furor over smoking and. health arose o. Table ii consis~ts of a tabulation of physicians beliefs "Concerning the relationship between cigarette smok- ing and a number of specific diseases." A copy of this table is a~ttache~d to the original of this memorandum; it is suggested that the table be forwardedi to Dave Hardy for possible use by the Ad Hoc group,. . ~Michael J°: Henke hl CC : Mr. Clagett Mr. Topol Mr. Morey