Tobacco Documents Online

To: M.P.D.C. Members ACK ..................... FILE .................... ~rom: W.~. Fordyce LONG-F,.ANGE FORECASTS (I 986) Product-related assumptions abstracted from tl~ree recent papers are listed below. The papers were written by C.I. Ayres (1), Messrs. Short & Kalhok (If), and by a Team from the Wrapping Materials Study Group {Ill), and this list of assumptions was asked for in M.P.D.C. Min.ute 17 of 19th May, 1976. Presumptive or conjectura3, statements are included though the authors may not have described them formaLiy as assumptions. M. F. D.C. ,,,~;nbez'~, or the a,~hors, ,nay wish to'restructure the quotations in order to create statements which are, in assumptions. From I (Product) • I) The ~reatest threat lies not in further evidence of a direct llnk between smoking and disease, but the increasing tendency to portray smoking as a socially undesirable habit ...... It will not be ea'sy to combat this threaL 2) There is danger in the current trend of lower and lower cigarette deliveries - i.e. the smoker will be weaned away from the habit. 3) -- ...... Opportunities are opened up in the market for low-tar-with-taste cigarettes {i. e. by league tables and by pressure towards "across-the-board tar reduction"). - ..... we should beware of following the crowd into ultra-low nicotine deliveries. .. 4) B-A. T. should accelerate any market testing in new markets of distinctive flavours before the possibility is foreclosed (i. e. by IIunter-like activity). 5) Smokers will polarise into low-nicotine and high- nicotine groups. 6) The need to control other (i. e. othdr than CO) vapour phase materials will lead to the use of more complex filters. BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 14 November 2000 -- .......... 00290482 BAT INDUSTRIES

-2- 7) The next ten years will see continued attempts to develop new smoking materials, and their incorporation at increasing levels in the cigarette. 8) The trend in product design over the next ten years will be towards cigarettes with porous or ventilated wrappers, incorporating increasing amounts of sheet materials (both tobacco= and non-tobacco-based), carrying more efficient or selective filters. | From II (Marketingj I} It is possible that a "total index of safety" may emerge if recent attempts by Herzfeld are validated elsewhere. 2) Marketing reviews ......... reveal the need to vigorously maintain the growth and development of full- flavour, relatively high delivery brands. Looking to the future, it would be desirable to find techniques for " retaining the nfu11-flavour" of a brand like I-IB, while" achieving lower T.P.M. deliveries. 3) In due course, however, we may well reach the point where own and competitive nctivity in the news media reaches the point of saturation for the consumer, a~id the effectiveness of mnnifold "Hi-Fi" product marketing wiZl be greatly diminished. From III (Packaging) 1) The basic product will remnin the same (other than in dimensions). W. B.' FORDYCE BAT Industries document for Province of British Columbia 14 November 2000 BAT I~usTRIES ........ 00290483