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A Statistical Analysis of the Incidence of Tumour-Bearing Animals in Janus Experiment B6-B7
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- WILKES EB
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A ST&T'rSTZCAL ANALYS'rS OF THE INCIDENCE OF
TUMOUR-BEARING ANIMALS IN
JANUS EXPERIMENT B6/B7
REPOET NO. RD.1212-R
9.5.1975
~UTHOE: E.B. Wilkes
ZSSUED BY: M.E. Willis
PROJECT JOB NO. ~720
DZSTRIBUTTON:
Dr. S.J. G=aen C~py N~. 1
Dr. D,G. FalCon 2, 3
Librar7 " " 4, 5
File No. 46D-2 " " 6
COPT NO.
m
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EBW/SMH/46D--2
Group Research & Development Centre,
British-American Tobacco Co. Ltd.,
SOUTHAMPTON.
9th May, 1975
A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INCIDENCE OF TUMOUR-R~AR!Nn
ANIMALS IN JANUS EXPERIMENT B6/B7
(Report No. ED.1212-R)
SUMMARY
The major conclusions to be drawn from this analysis are:-
1. Using the all-cumour dana, no siKnlficanc difference between the
tumorigenic &cnivities of tobaccos B6 and B7 was found, nor did changing
~he cuts per inch s~gniflcantly effect the ~morigenici~y of the condensates.
2. usinE the maliEnanc tumour data, both the B6/B7 effect and the cuts
per inch effect were siEn£ficant.
3. AC the dose Zevels used. both condensates (B6 and B7) were h£Khly
~XiC.
A. A marked high dose anomaly i8 present in Ehe dana. making it /mposslble
~o compute a tu~origeu/c ratio ~ith any precision.
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0eJ~CTZVES
The objective of this experiment was co assess the effect of two
different modes of tobacco preparatlou on the tumoriKenic activity of
the condensate produced by ciKarettes concain~nl the tobacco. The e~fecc
of various levels of the cuts per inch used durin8 the muu£actuxe of
the cilarectes on the tumorigenic activity o£ the conde~ate8 was also
Luvestisaced.
2. DESTGN OF EXPE~
Two modes o£ tobacco -~nu£acture, three level8 oF cuts per /~ch,
and three levels o£ condensate application warm used, a total oF 18
tobacco/c.p.i./dose level combinations. Thus the experiment co~isted
o£ eighteen Stoups o£ animals, each K~roup contai~4n8 8A animals in the
ociK~al desiKn, a total of 1512 animals. These animals were unmated
female albino mice o£ S.C.I. breed. When submitted to the exper~nenc
they were 8 to 9 weeks old and weiKhed on averase 20 $.
The three l~els o£ cuts par inch used were 30 c.p.i., 60 c.p.i.,
and 120 c.p.i. The ~hree condensate dose levels used were 25 mS,
SO m8 and 75 mK. The condensate gas applied every Tuesday, Thursday
and Set.day throuKhouC the period o£ the exper~nt in 0.3 ml o£ solution.
&11 animals in the exper/ment were shaved with the same sbearln8 rhythm.
The details o£ an~m61 husbandry and condensate production are to be
found Ln (I).
3. RZSULTS OF ~CPEKZMEHT
The practice at 3details, Fra~kJurt~ is to exAmlne each annual
weekly. Skin lesions ~rith~n the painted area are recorded as azure
/~ they have a diameter o£ at Isaac 2 m and protrude above the 8kLn
surface or have a firmer consistency than the 8urroundin8 skin.
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Tf at any subsequent exaalnaciou a cumour is judsed Co have disappeared
a reKression is recorded.
For the purposes of cabulaCin8 the ~nc£dence of tmnours, the time
of appe~arance of a Cumour is taken as the tlme of appearance of the
papilloma, recorded as described in the previous paragraph. The condition
o£ maliKnancy is noC diagnosed unCll autopsy; the time of onset o£
maliSnancy ~s taken as the t~me o£ death of the animal carryLng the cumour.
Tumours are resarded as malignant if they produce mmtastases, or Lf they
/~filtrate the dermis and penetrate the tunics muscularls, or i£ they
infiltrate the dermis and penatrsta the basal mmabrana of the epithelium.
Occasionally tumou=s sho~td 4u~iltracion oE the da~mis, but ~[t could
noc be cl~rly escabllshed thaC penmcration of the basal membrane had
occ~ed. Such turnouts were recorded as sho3r~a4 the f£~st siKns of
real £8~ancy.
The results o~ the expe=Lmmnt are shown in Tables I to 18. These
~bles show Che ~c~denca of tumour-bea:iuqL a~imsLs ~n the I8 emper/a~ntal
Stoups of animals. The c~sour-b4~r~ ma/~aSs /~ mn axp~r/~mncal poup
msy be allocated to the £oLlowiJ~ seven clasaas:-
1. kn~nals hey/Jag no lesion.
2. An~nals haviz~ lesions all of vhlch pex3naneuatly reSrassad.
3. An/~aZs having lesions all o£ which are uncharmcterlsed.
A:~Lma~s hevi~s lesions, sows o£ which penmmeuCZy :egressed
the :ama£nd~c bataK unchazacCe=£sed.
5. An~nals havlz~ at least one coutirmed amour.
6. An/s~Zs hev£nZ at least one turnout show~ng the £irsC siSas
o~ mli~ancy, but no malignant cumomr.
7. An/~aZs heviJzS at least one malignant t~ur.
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V
An animal must fall into one and only one of the classes 1 to 5.
Classes 6 and 7 are sub--divisions of class 5.
The lesions borne by an animal in an experimental Stoup may be
allocated to one of the follovinS five classes:-
1. Lesions which permanently resress.
2. Lesions which are tmc~eracterised.
3. Les~ons which are beniBn.
A. Lesions which show the first si~na of mal£Snancy.
5. Lesions which are maliKnant.
& lesion must fail into one and only one of these five eI&sses.
In order co analyse the incidence of t~nour-b~aring anlmals, the
t~ne of appearance of ttmour-b@ar~ animals in the ex?er/ment is tabulated
as in Tables I to 18. The firs= column shows the duration of the experimene
divided into 4-reek periods. The times recorded in the date for each
animal e.K- time of appea~anne of turnout, time of death, etc., are recorded
in weeks. The second column is defined as the number of animals alive
end tumourless st the beEinnln8 of the time period. The third column
is defined as the number of aIL'|.msls becoming tumour-boaring durinS the
4-week period. Col,~ A is defined as the number of animals dylng w~thout
becoming turnout-be&tins du=inS the #-week period. The fifth eolutn is
defined as the mmber of animmls allve vithout a maliE~ant turnout at
the belinnLng of the &-weak period. The sixth column is defined as the
ntmbe: of animals which have no mal i~Lnt t~mour at the bqi=ins of
the time--period and which produce at toast one maliKnanC turnout durinE
the 4-~sek period. Since the onset of mal~ancy is dafinld is the
date of death o£ an animal b~ar~ng a malignant turnout, columns six may
be equivalently defined as the number of an/male dying with a malisnant
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tcuuour during the 4-week t~ne period. (SLmilerly column 5 may be
equivalently defined as the total number of animals alive st the beginning
of the 4-week period. ) The seventh column is d~ined as the number
of ani:als dying vlthout a malignant turnout during the 4~eek period.
Thus if the rows of the table ere numbered from i to i then for
columns 2, 3, 4 and 5, 6, 7
Ni+I " Ni - DIi - D2i
where Ni is the number of animals ac risk aC the beginning of rime period
£, D1i is the number of Qls becoming ctanour-b~ar/ng during rime
period i, and D2i is the number of animals dying during eke period i
without becomins Cumour-bear£ng. N1 is the number of animals encer£ng
the experiment at the beginnins of week 1.
The animals ~n an axperin~ntml group enter ohm tables according co
their occupancy of the seven classes described above. Thus aninuals
from classes 3, 4 and $ will ante: column 3 of the Cable; az~mals from
classes 1 end 2 will enter column 4 of the table; animals in class 7 will
enter column 6 of the table. Columns 3, 4, 6 and 7 are totalled.
These tables form the basis of the statistical analysis. 5ubsidlary
tables of the numbers of --4m-ls in the seven classes and of the numbers
of lesions in the five class., are shown in Tables 19 to 38. Table 28
is • stamnary of Tables 19 Co 27, end Table 38 is 8 sugary of Tables 29
to 37.
Zt v~ll be noted Chat Tables i to 18 frequently show that the numbers
of animals in the experimental groups were greater Chart Chose stated at
the beginning of section 2. These extra animals are called "I~PLACZIEHT
AH~S" and were taken into the experiment Co replace animals dying
during the first 4 weeks of ceat~enc. The number of replacement animals
used in r_he 18 Kroups were as follows'-.
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25 m8
75
30 c.p.i.
i
I0
g6
60 c.p. £.
e,,
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4
3
120 c.p.i.
1
4
6
30 ¢.p.i.
4
2
3
B7
60 c.p.i.
120 c.p.i.
4
3
3
A torsi of 70 replacement animals were used, maki~ an overall total of
1582 animals uJed in the experiment.
4. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
Using the Weibull distribution, common values of k and w, and separate
values of b were fitUed to the da~a from the eighteen groups of animals.
A fit was obtained for all turnouts, and for malignant tumours. The est/-eates
of ~he parameters are shown in Tables 39 and 40. The associated values
of S and V ere shown in Tables 41 and 42 IS and V are the Weibull statistics
and arm defined at the £ooc of the tables], t goodness of fit test for
these parameter values was carried out, the results beinE shown in
Tables 43 and 44. Inspection of Tables 43 and 44 shove that the values
of the parameters given in Table 39 do not fit the data too well
(X2 " 27.63 with 6 degrees of freedom, significant at 99.98Z) whereas
the parameter values given in Table 40 do fit the data re~eouably well
(X2 m 11.43 with 6 degrees of freedom, not siEnificanC). A closer
inspect£on of Table 43 shows that the lack of fit is occurrlnE dur£~
the experimental weeks 65 to 80, Coo few ct~our-baarinll animals being
expected duxin8 weeks 65--72, and coo -,any being expected in weeks 73 Co
80. The total expecLation for this time period, 191.4, is however
fairly comparable wi=h chose observed, 214.
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It is difficult to identify reasons for the lack of fit of the
parameter values of Table 39 co the a11-tumour data. Inspection of the
data (Tables I to 38) shows that a feature of this experiment is the
high toxicity of the col~Ita~,sllUeS used, as Lnd£cated by the death rate in
the first 8 weeks of the experiment. The deaths in the first 8 weeks of
the expeximent are shown in Table 45 and these deaths expressed as a
percentage of the number of animals at the beginning of the experiment
(including replacements) are shown in Table &6. Analyses of variance of
the dace of Tables A5 and 46 were carried out, the results being shown
in Tables A7 and A8 where it can be seen chat ali the main effects
(tobaccos, cuts per inch, dose levels) are highly significant. Also, as
would be expected, comparison of Table 47 with 48 shows thaC expressing
the numbers of deaths in the first 8 weeks of the experiment as a percentage
of the s~arting number in each group increalmS the significance levels
(the F-ratios) of the main effects. The partitioning of the m,,,in effects
indicates than the dose effect is m-tlraly log linear, and that the
c.p.i, effect is h~hly Iog linear but with a significant degree of non-
Einearicy.
This analysis of the early deaths shows that
(a) ~he condensates used were unexpectedly toxic, giving rise
to very high death races (up to 64.5Z; see Table 46) in the
first 8 weeks of the experiment.
(b) the condensate from cigarettes contalnln6 tobacco B6 was
sisw/ficmntly more toxic than that from cigarettes containing
tobacco BT.
(c) decreas/~g the cuts per inch siEuificantly increased the
toxicity of the condensates produced by the cigarettes.
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Thus the situation is that the high mortality is proportiona~ to
the main effects under consideration i.e. a situation wherein the
mortality is strongly influencing the observed tumour rates.
The extent to which mortality has influenced cumour races can be
judged by comparing Tables 49 and 50; the former shows observed percentages
of tumour-bearing animals (all turnouts) and the latter shows age-standardised
percentages. Lee's m~thod of aEe-sCandardisation was used (2). Table 51
shows the ratio of standardised to observed turnout rates for each experimental
Stoup, i.a. the weighers applied to the observed tumour rates co obtain
the scandardised races. Obviously some of these weights are far too high.
Table 52 shows an analysis of variance of the data of Table 50.
The arc sin square root transformation of the age-standardised turnout
rates was used during the analysis of variance. From Table 52 it can be
seen that, using agrstandardised turnout rates (all turnouts), only the
dose levels have a slgn/ficant effect on the tumour races. There is no
sigu/ficanC difference between the ~ tobaccos B6/BT, and no slgnLficant
e-Ffecc due co changes +tn c.p.i. The dose effect ks more nearly linear
if the logarlCtms of the dose levels are used in the analysis (in place
of the actual dose levels) but a significant degree of non-lintarity is
still present. The form of this non-llnnaricy in the dose-response curves
can be seen in Figure l; the da~a display a hilh dose anomaly, the response
rates at the highest dose l~vel. 75 ~, being rather loss ~han those at
the middle dose level (50 ~).
Overall it would seam that the lack of fin of the Wmibull parameters
to the all-turnout dace has arlsan as a result of the excessive morCallty
durin8 the first few months of the experiment. The malignant turnout
dace, produced aminly by the animals which survived this early period,
does follow the expected Wsibull dlstribucion.
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Even though the We£bull parameters did not fit the data too well
it was decided to construct an analysis of variance based upon the
likelihoods of the Weibull parameters of the all-tu~our data. The results
are sho~n in Table 53, and comparison with Table 52 shows that the results
of the analysis of variance of the age-standardlsed tumour races are
con£iraed i.e. chert is no significant different beaten the incidence of
all tumours for tobaccos B6 and B7, nor does changing the level of the
cuts per inch dur~ tobacco manufacture produce a signlficant effect
on the incidence of all turnouts. It is to be noted however that the
significance levels for the betveen-tobacco effects and the between c.p.i.
effacts are considerably hisher in Table 53 ~mn in Table 52, the between-
tobacco significance level of 92.6Z in Table 53 being nearly significant.
Usin8 the Weibull analysis, the dose-response curves remain siEnificantly
non-linear as can be teen in Figure 2.
The incidence of animals bearinK malignant turnouts was analysed using
the Welbull disurlbution. The goodness-of-flt test showed that the
parameter values of Table 40 provide a satisfactory description of the
incidence of ~ls bearing malignant turnouts and and analysis of varLance
was constructed based upon the likelihoods of the We£bull models of the
malignant tumour data. The results are shown in Table 54, where i~ can
be seen that there is a slgnlflcant dlfEerence between the two types
of tobacco B6/B7 (significance level 95.7Z), B6 being less t~morisanic
than ST, and that the chanse in c.p.i. levels during tobacco manufacture
significantly reduced the tumorigenicity of both condensates (slgnificance
level 97.9Z). The partitioning of the e.p.i, effect into its linear and
non-linear components shows that the c.p.i, effects is almost perfectly
linear, the non--linear component being vanishinEly small. The amalysis
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also shows that the dose/response curves are markedly non-linear. This
non-linearity is shown in FiEure 3 where it can be seen that, as for the
all turnout da~a, the malilnant turnout da~a shows a high dose anomaly.
HavinK shown that, for the maliEnant t~nour data, the two tobaccos
(B6 and B7) were significantly different in their tumorisenic activity,
the tumorisenic ratio was computed and found to be 1.14 with 95Z confidence
limits of 0.99 to 1.33. These confidence limits show the tu--oriEenic
ratio (based upon maliEnant turnout data) to be just not siEnificann,
whereas the analysis of variance shown in Table 54 shows the between
tobacco iffect to be just sit~/fioant an the 95X level. (Actual sisnificance
level 95.7Z.) This sliEht inconsistency in the siEn£ficance tests arises
because the siEnificance nest for the between tobacco effect used in the
analysis of var/~nce table uses both the dose In linear and dose in
quadratic terms in the model, whereas the computations leading to the
tumoriEenic ratio and its confidence ration use only the dose In linear
term. Zt is to be expected that in the presence of marked non-llnearlty
of dose/response (as in this case) the inclusion of the dose In quadratic
term would improve the sensitivity of the siEnificance test. Thus the
overall situation is that, usiD~ the maliBnant turnout data, a sisnlficant
dLfforance between the tobaccos can be found (B7 beln~ more tumori@enic
than B6) hut the tmnorisenic ratio cannot be determined with any precision
because of the marked wn-linearity of the dose response curve. Using
the all-turnout data no siKnificant between-tobacco effect was found.
The effect of cuts per inch on the tumorilenicic~ of the condensates
is shown in FiEuze & where the values of In(b) for maliKnaut turnouts
are plotted aKainst cuts per inch. As has been noted earlier, the cuts
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significant c.p.i, effect was found.
dace are shown plotted in Figure 5.
5. CONCLUSZONS
per inch linear term is highly significant and accounts for virtually
all the c.p.£, effect. The magnitude of the c.p.i, effect in terms of
the tumorigenicity of the condensates may be assessed by noting Chat
a change in c.p.i, of 51 (say from 50 Co 81) is equivalent co the difference
between the B6/B7 condensates. Again, using the all-tumour dace no
For completeness the a11-tumour c.p.£.
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The conclusions Co be drawn from this work are:-
Using the all-cumour dace no significant difference could be found
between the tumorigenic activities of tobaccos B6 and BT.
Using the all-cumour data no sisn/ficant effect of changinS the
cuts per inch could be found on the tumorigenic activity of the
condensates.
There was a slgnificant lack of fit of the We£bull distribution
function to the all-cutout ctaca if the Weibull parameters were
esclmated under the restriction of con~on k, w for all groups,
separate b for each group.
Conclusions 1 Co 3 have been greatly influenced by the CoxiclCy of
the condenmaces, this toxicity leading co high initial death races
in the groups of animals.
Both the type of tobacco (B6/B7) and the level of cuts per inch
had a slgniflc~ut effect on the toxicity of the condensate as
measured by the death rate in the first 8 weeks of the experiment,
B6 being more toxic Chat B7, and increasinE c.p.i, giving lower
Coxlci~y.
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6.
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UsinS mali6mznt turnout dmt&, • slgni£icent di££ere~ce was found
between the tumorigenic activities of tobaccos B6 and B7, B6 being
less tumoriSenic than B7.
Due co the s~Sz~flcant non-lin~szity of the dose~response curve it
was not possible co determine the B6/B7 tumorilen£c ratio vith an7
precision.
Using the malia~auc t~ur data, increaslng the cuts per inch
s£gni£1cantly reduced the tumor£seniciCy oF the ¢ondeusates.
1. "Long-term skin painting experiments. General report on project JANUS".
J. ~endl, G. FJJn~smaun, a. ~ramer. Report B.18. June 1970.
2. "The simulated population method of analysis of nnimal painting
experiments in cancer research". P.N. Lee. Biometrics 26 No. 4, 1970.
Computer Softvare used im this analysis;-
"Syste: Definition to produce an analysis suits for JANUS post-rooftree
T.B.A. dace". Syst~ Definition No. BR(J)/OO3. J.N. Davey, E.B, Wilkes.
"System for the analysis of JANUS sk£u pa£nciuS experiment
(Gener&l L~eAr itypothesis)". STstem Deflation No. BE(J)/OOA.
J.M. Devey.
memm~
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les~
"I0eLN03 ld3HI I.~L (O "le'f] Sit ¢L0 JN)~Io3¢/3
S3VNIHV ~ldlll~l-~L JO S3vL01
lNOd]l~ ¢~IkVP 13]TOHd "Q'O OkVoH "03 "L*V*O
-p/-

(
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-+
|
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Z
Z
++
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(3
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O.
Z
61 i~d
0°m
tgq~
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Illllll2
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I+lI
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I
qg£
101
lVl01
iim
IlL
e'lHlII
t
611
¢
II
$uOI+]~ +lvI01
io.~iIW
Sl+01S+l
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N~bnl IMVmII3W ~0 ISV]l IV "L
~OM~I lkv~l+U'ON i~ "A)kv~l*l~d
JI) SMSIS ISlld ~l+l ~ilmltmS ~+l,ml )1~ j5~)1 IV "9
0KI+iI~I, nI~,411 9NI)O st01S)3 9.lql~sli
QKll]I~V~I~ SN01S]I 11V "C
0~SS~gN AIIN~I~tMI~]IISNOIS]~ +'1~ *t
sqOlsi~ ~ "I
NOIAv)I31SSII+
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10Smi L~O~J~
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S~VP 133PO~ *I*O O~v'~ "03 *£*v-g
n( ~lly.t
• ' ++0+++GoI

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-51-
~LE 39
ESTIHATES OF WETBUI,L PARAHETERS
Tobacco Dose
B6 25 30
B6 50 30
B6 75 3O
B6 25 6O
B6 50 60
B6 75 60
B6 25 120
B6 50 120
B6 75 120
37 25 30
• 7 5O 30
B7 75 30
B7 25 60
17 .5O 6O
B7 75 60
$7 25 120
B7 5O 120
B7 75 120
ALL TUHOURS
b
c.p.f., x 106 k v
1.3198L5
5.242655
4.351070
1.629949
3.989866
3.587721
1.016096
4.149186
4.303343
1.634081
5.361834
4.498700
1.443989
4.569741
5.667275
1.137230
5.939105
4.389773
3.004374
3.OO4374
3.OO4374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.004374
3.0O4374
3.0O4374
3.004374
3.004374
3. OO4374
3.004374
17.44824
17.44824
17.46824
17.44824
17.44824
17.44824
17.64824
I7.448Z4
17.44824
17.44824
17.64826
17.44826
17.44824
17.64824
17.64824
17.44824
17.44824
17.44824
,M:,,.
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

-52-
TABLE 40
ESTXHATES OF WEIBULL PARAI~TERS
MALIGNANT TUMOUES
Tobacco Dose c.p.£.
B6 25 30
B6 50 30
B6 75 30
B6 25 60
86 50 60
86 75 60
86 25 120
86 50 120
86 75 120
b
x 10e k w
1.5&4979 4.011293 38.58548
7.229687 &.011293 38.58548
8.843913 4.011293 38.58548
1.667290 &.OL1293 38.58548
4.184315 4.011293 38.58548
6.715455 4.011293 38.58548
1.077183 4.011293 38.58548
4.961088 4.011293 38.58548
4.829332 4.011293 38.58548
87 25 30
57 5O 3O
87 75 3O
87 25 60
87 50 60
87 75 60
37 25 120
37 5O 120
37 75 120
1.894522 4.011293 38.58548
7.502955 4.011293 38.58548
8.015643 4.011293 38.58548
1.696823 4.011293 38.58548
7.500196 4.011293 38.58548
8.125522 4.011293 38.58548
1.388213 4.011293 38.58548
5.966336 4.011293 38.58548
5.514798 4.011293 38.58548
BAT Co LTD - MINN~TA TOBACCO LITIGATION
J
41,

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-53-
TABLE 41
v~o~s oF s ~ v .ERIWD rZOM T~ P~U~S
"' OF Z.~ a9
ALL TUMOURS
Tobacco Dose c.p.i. S V x 10-6
im i, i
B6 25 30 41 31.0650
B6 50 30 36 6.8668
B6 75 30 9 2.0685
36 25 60 42 25.7677
B6 50 60 34 8.5216
36 75 60 21 5.8533
B6 25 120 38 37.3980
36 50 120 41 9.8815
56 75 120 32 7.4361
37 25 30 49 29.9863
~7 50 30 60 7.488I
R7 75 30 29 6.4463
37 25 60 t3 29.7786
37 50 60 63 9.4097
37 75 60 34 6.2188
67 25 I20 35 50.7765
B7 50 120 52 8.7555
m7 75 120 40 9.1121
s- ~ DIi v- Y (nlx ÷D2£)(tx-w)k
£
The vtlues of DI~ tnd D2~ are given in
T&bles 1 to 38. t'The val~es of k and w
are given £~ Table 39.
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
w
k.A

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-54-
TABLE 42
V, kT.,I.~S OF S AND V DERIVED FROM THE PARANET~RS
OF TABLE 40
HALZG~qNT TUHOURS
Tobacco Dose c.p.i. S V x 10-7
=
B6 25 30 22 142.3970
B6 50 30 24 33.1965
B6 75 30 5 5.6536
B6 25 60 24 143.9A60
B6 50 60 18 43.O178
B6 75 60 13 19.5583
B6 25 120 19 176.3860
B6 50 120 24 48.3767
B6 75 120 20 41.4136
B7 25 30 32 168.9080
B7 50 30 20 Z6.6562
B7 75 30 17 21.2085
B7 25 bO 26 153.2280
B7 50 60 34 45.3321
B7 75 60 17 ZO.9217
B7 25 120 22 158.6770
B7 50 120 29 48.6060
B7 75 120 22 39.8927
S m
~. DIl - V ,,, ~ (DL:L ÷ D2i)(c:l" - v)k"
:L :L
The values of DI{ and D24 are S£ven in
Tables 1 Co 38. "The valaas of k and w
are given in Table 40.
mmmmh
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-55-
TABLE 43
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR THE PARAMETER VALUES OF TABLE 39
Time Period Observed Expected ×2
4 - 48
49 - 56
57 - 64
65 - 72
73 - 80
81 - 92
93+
94
75
107
144
70
98
71
ill.6
83.2
98.1
101.4
90.0
94.5
78.8
2.77
O. 80
O.81
17.90
4.45
O.13
0.77
Tocal X2 - 27.63
The cable shows observsd and expected numbers of tumour-bearinS an~naXs.
The value of X2 of 27.63 wlcb 6 degrees of freedom iS s£gnlflcanC aC
the 99.98Z level of confidence.
TABLE 44
GOODNESS-OF-FI"E TEST FOR Tm~- PAEAMETER VALUES OF TABLE 60
Time Period
• , ,, ,,
4 - 72
73 - 84
85 - 88
89 - 96
97 - 104
105 - 112
113"
Observed
J,
47
I00
32
64
44
4O
61
Expected
56.2
83.0
32.7
65.9
57.2
61.8
48.4
J II
Tonal X2 =
X2
1.50
3.48
O.01
0.06
3.05
0.08
3.25
11.63
The cable shows observed and expected numbers of animals bearinE a
ml£ananc Cumour. The value of X2 of 11.43 w£cb 6 desrees of freedom
is sianificant at the 88.58Z level of confidence.
BAT Co LTD - M1NN~TA TOBACCO LITIGATION
¢...rl
O
c~

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-56-
TABLE 45
NUHBERS OF DEATHS IN THE ZST 8 WEEKS OF EXPERLI4ENT B6/B7
25 mg
.5Ou~
75 ms
B6
mm
30 c.p.£. 60 c.p.£.
4
1
39
6O
23
32
120 c.p.£.
3
21
30c.p.i.
6
25
39
60 c.p.i.
3
15
18
120 c.p.J..
9
14
18
TA.BLE 46
NUHBERS OF DF..ATHS Zlq THE LST 8 WEEKS OF EXPER, XI~HT B6/B7
EXPR~SSZD AS A PEF.CF.I~AGE OF ~ '3~'rTZAL HI.MBER
OF Alq~$ ~ EACH GROUP
25
5O mg
75 ms
30 c.p.i.
1.19
41.49
64.52
B6
60 c.p.i.
4.71
26.1A
35.78
120 ¢.p.i.
3.53
23.86
37.78
30 c.p.i.
6.82
29.07
44.83
B7
60 c.p.i.
3.49
16.67
20.22
120 c.p.i.
].0.23
16.09
20.69
BAT Co LTD - MINNF.,SOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-57-
TABLE ~7
AIqALYSIS OF VA~ZAI~CE OF THE DATA OF TABLE ~3
Source of Variance
BeCwmez~ cobaccos
Becween c.p.i,
Ke~weext doses
Tobacco x c.p.i.
Tobacco x dose
Sum squ.
272.222
593.444
2613.4~
14.111
318.111
TOTAL
438.222
27.556
4277.111
d£
1
2
2
2
2
4
4
17
Mean squ. F S£g. Z
272.22
296.72
1306.72
7.06
159.06
109.56
6,89
39.52
43.07
189.68
1.O2
23.09
15.90
>99.5
>99. $
>99..5
t
>99.0
>97.5
The c.p.£, e~£ecc may be parciC£oned as:-
C. p. ~ • linear
C.p.i. non-linear
OX" as : --
C.p.i, 1= linea=
C. p.i. In non-l~ear
311.111
282.333
420.083
173.361
3LI,11
282.33
1 4ZO.08
1 173.36
The dose e££ecC amy be parCiC£oued as:-
2512.083
61.361
1
1
2613.41
.03
Dose l£near
Dose non--1 inca=
O~ atS :-
Dose In linear
Dose lu z~on-l~esz
&5,16 >99.5
40.98 >99,5
60.98 >99.$
2S.16 >99.0
370.46 >99.5
8.91 >95.0
379.36 >99.5
.O1
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
0

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-58-
TABLE 48
ANALYSIS OF VARiaNCE OF THE DATA OF TABLE 4&
Source of Varian=e
Between tobaccos
Between c. p. i.
Between domes
Tobacco x c. p. i.
Tobacco z doge
C.p.£. x dose
ge s idua 1
TOTAL
S,-- squ.
287.Og2
674. 335
3238. 837
8.459
354.178
510.470
18.323
|, | ,,
5091. 694
. Jl, ~m. J u,
df Mean squ.
1 287.09
2 337.17
2 1619.42
2 4.23
2 177.O9
4 127.62
4.58
17
J
The c.p.i.
C.p.i.
C.p.i.
or aS:-
C.p.i. In
c.p.i. In
i |l
egfecc may be
linear
non-linear
linear
non-linear
jl
35~.177
320.158
partitioned ms:-
I 354.18
i 320.16
The dose effect may be
Dose line~r
Dose uon-li.esr
or .8=-
Dose in linear
Dose In non--lineLr
477.943
196.392
Hi
477.94
196.39
|, i
partitioned
316A.133 1
74.704 1
3238.822 1
.O15 1
&&:--
3164.13
7k. 70
3238.82
.O2
F "
62.67
73.60
353.52
0.92
38.56
27.86
77.32
69.89
104.34
42.87
69o 74
16.31
707.05
.OO
S£g. Z
,i
>99.5
>99.5
>99.5
e
>99.5
>99.5
>99.5
>97.5
>99.5
t
w
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-59-
25 mg
50lag
75 mgI
TABLE 49
OBSERVED PERCENTAGES OF TUMOUR-BEAXZNG ANIMALS IN
JANUS EXPERZMENT B6/B7. ALL TUMOURS
B6 B7
30 c.p.i. 60 c.p.£. 120 c.p.i. 30 c.p.i. 60 c.p.i. 120 c.p.i.
m
48.81
38.3O
9.68
49.41
38.64
24.14
44.71
46.59
35.56
55.68
46.51
33.33
50.00
47.78
38.20
39.77
59.77
45.98
TA3LE 50
AGE-STANDAEDISED PERCENTAGES OF ~J~J~UR-~Z2qG A~IZMA/.S IN
OANUS EXPERIMENT B6/BT. ALL TIA~URS
2~mg
SOmg
75 mg
|,,
25 mg
3Oag
75
30 c.p.i.
52.84
82.33
79.70
m6
60 c.p.:L. 120 c.p.i.
58.77
78.84
77.20
48.23
77.32
79.31
30 c.p.i.
60.29
81.38
78.05
5z
B7
60 c.p.L. 120 c.p.£.
57.21
77.27
82.82
49.28
84.05
79.89
,,
30 c.p.:i.
1.08
2.15
8.23
60 c,p.i.
1.19
2.0~
0
120 c.p.£.
1.08
1.66
2.23
30 ¢.p.i.
1.08
1.75
2.34
B7
60 c.p.i. 120 c.p.i.
1.14
1.62
2.17
|1 i
1.24
1.41
1.74
BAT Co LTD - MINNF_5OTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-60-
TABLE 52
ANALYSXS OF VAEEANCE OF THE AGE-STANDARD~SED PERCENTAGES OF
Tm~OUR-BEARL~C A~LV~LS LN JANUS ~XPERL~r 86/B7
x~ TUMOURS. ~ XZC S~ SqU~ ROOT
TRANSFORMATZON WAS USED
Source of Variance
Between ~obaccos B6/B7
Between ¢.p.i.
BeCweendoses
Tobacco x c.p.i.
Tobacco x dose
C.p.i. x dose
residual
i •
TOTAL
The c.p.£, effect may
C.p.i. linear
C.p.£. non-llnear
Or aS:"
C.p.i. In linear
C.p.i. In non-l£near
The dose effect may be
Dose linear
Dose non-1~lear
or as:-
Dose In linear
Dose ln non-llnear
Sum squ. df
6.008 1
8. 356 2
999.878 2
1.513 2
O.075 2
32.957 4
24. 023 4
i • m
1072. 810 17
be par t:£cionad
8. 232 1
O. 124 I
7. 567 1
O. 789
partitioned
724.520
275.358
846. 525
153.358
1
mS :--
1
1
Mean squ.
6.01
4.18
499.94
O. 76
0.04
8.24
6.01
aS: --
8.23
O. 12
7.57
0.79
m
724.52
275.36
846.53
153.36
¥
1.00
O. 70
83.24
O. 13
0.01
1.37
1.37
0.02
1.26
O. 13
J
120.64
45.85
140.95
25.54
S£g. Z
>99.9
m
o
>99.9
>99.5
>99.9
>99.0
,remain
QD
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-61-
I
TA.BI~ 53
__ _ |,
ANALYSZS OF VARIANCE BASED UPON THZ LZK~LIHOODS OF THE
~:LSULL NODELS OF TUMOUK INCIDENCE IN JAI~US F.XPEKINEI~
Source
Between condensate dose levels
Between tobaccos B6/B7 Doses
Betveen c.p.i, levels Doses and Tobaccos
Zo~el Hahn Effects
1so order inceractlons Haln effects
2nd order inceracc£on Main + lsc order
I~TAL
x2
250.73
3.18
2.02
255.93
6.41
3.74
266.09
df
2
1
2
$
8
4
17
The between d01e level e~fect .my be perticLoned as:-
Dose level e~fffecc (ln-Z£near) 212.79 1
Dose level egfscv (non In-linear) 37.94 1
|
The be t'ween c • p. i.
m,,
level effect may be partitioned Is:-
Sig. Z
100.0
92.6
63.6
100.0
39.9
55.8
lO0.O
100.0
100.0
C.p.i. level e~£ect (linear)
C.p.i. level effect (non-l£near)
1.98 1 86.1
.04 1 15.4
BAT CO LTD - MINN~TA TOBACCO LITIGATION
C~

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-62-
TABLE 94
AI~A.L,YSIS OF VAR£AiLqCE BASED UPON THE L'rEELTHOODS OF THE
'" ~r.lSULL MODELS O~ 'na4ou~'n~cz~v~CE z~ J~US
ZXeE~Z_~4~ SeIBT. ~.r.z~u~T ~4otn~s
Source
Between condensate dosa levals
Between tobaccos B6/B7 Dose levels
Between c.p.i, levels Doses and Tobaccos
Total Nain Effects
1st order interactions Hain effects
2nd order interacC£c~s Main + Zst order
TOTAL
J,, ,,, ,, ,
182.63
4.11
7.68
19~.A2
2.18
1.97
198.56
df Sig. Z
2 1OO.O
1 95.7
2 97.9
$ 100.0
8 2.5
4 25.8
17 1OO .O
The becveen dose levels affect may be partitioned as:-
Dose level e~fect (In-linear) 163.64 1
Dose Zevel e~£ecC (non In-linear) 18.99 1
The bscvaen c.p.i, leveZs ef£ecc may be pagt£cioned ae:-
C.p.i. level effect (l£near) 7.68 1
C.p.i. level effect (~on-linea:) .OO 1
100.O
1OO.O
99.&
1.6
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
r',o

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-63-
APPEND IX
Included in the JANUS experiment B6/B7 were 4 groups of calibration
animals. The anJmmls each received 20 ug of carcinogen in O. 1 ml of
acetone:water solution (ratio of acetone to water 9:1 by volume) applied
The carcinogens used were 3,4-benz-a-pyrene and 1,2,5,6-
The treatments of the four groups was as follows:-
3 times weekly.
dibenzanthracene.
Group i.
Group 2.
Group :5.
Group 4.
D £benzanthracene
Dibenzanthracene
Benz-a-pyrene
Benz-a-pyrene
13 weeks duration
25 weeks duration
13 weeks duration
26 weeks duration
The results of these A groups (incidence of tumour-bearlng animals) are
shown in Tables LA to 4A. Tables 5A to 9A show summary tabulations of
the numbers of Eeslons and the numbers of animals bearing various classes
of lesion in these 4 groups.
The Welbull discributionwas finted to the data of Tables LA to 4A.
The results are shown £n Tables IOA and llA. As can be seen from these
t~o tables, the BP and DBA groups were treated separately, co~n values
of k and w being used for the 13/26 week groups for each carcinogen.
Goodness-of-flt teens were applle~ to the estimates of the Weibull parameters
and the results are shown ~ TabLe 12A where it can be seen that the
all-tumour data is fitted reasonably well by the Weibull function, but
that the maliEnant derma is a poor fit to the function. In view of the
fact that the parameter w was at a boundary i.e. the parameter est/Jnation
was not at s true maximum of the likelihood gunct~on it Ls perhaps not
surprlsing that the da~s do not fit the function with these parameter values.
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
O',,

( (
TABLE IA
t~
N
@
t-
C~
I
z
z
0
t"
O.
Z
IF-4.1. ¢0. II.iNO O,O. PIIOJECT JilNU3
INCIOIL'NC[ CNr HEW lruNuA.,N[iUItHO ANImaLS
tlUqtet'~Xl' elba It3 KSPT. Ill BoP, 13 W(ItS
lrlq iLL ImmuAS
MAIN N 01 01
I* 6 tY 0 O
i. | tT 0 II
e- ti ST e I
13- i6 H I I
el* ~ L~J e e
~9- 3! |6 0 e
33- 36 ~ ! I
31- 40 t4 I e
LI* 46 ~4 O O
4g* *ka ImQ O I)
4~* 111 84 • I
S~* S6 14 I I
ST* +e 13 1 l
61+ 41~ L~ I I
6e+ u IS I t
1,9- TI 16 I e
?]* Yl 16 I t
TT* M 14 O I
It- I+ II I |
15- II IS I I
IM- 9Z 14 e 0
+1. ql~ 14 e t
+I*III II I 3
llt-lm • I I
llm*ll4 I e ]
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-69-
TABLE 6A
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T^BLE 7A
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TABLE 8A
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-73-
TABLE IOA
ESTIMATES OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE WEZBULL DISTRIBUTION
FOR THE DATA OF TABLES 1a% TO 4A. ALL TUMOUES
Group b k
DBA 13 weeks
DaA 26 weeks
5.58929 x 10-3
4.30786 • 10-2
w S V
0.8852 20 6 1073.48
0.8852 20 22 510.694
5 232.291
5 172.716
s- v- (Dli÷D21)(ti_.)k
The valuee of D1. and D2. a~e 8iven in Tables 1A co kA.
Note ~hat the valuee of v liven in the above table ere
boundary values i e w - ~ima of appearance of let tumour.
L/3
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-74-
TABLE 11A
ESTIMATES OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE WETBULL DISTRIBUTION
FOR THE DATA OF TABLES IA TO 4A. MALTGNANT TUMOURS
Group
BP. 13 weeks
BP. 26 weeks
DBA 13 weeks
DKA 26 weeks
• |
8.840312 x 10-3
1.336125 x I0-I
k w S V
| m |
0.5532 44 2 226.235
0.5532 44 20 149.687
0.4407 48 2 142.078
0.4407 48 4 98.076
S- ~DI. Vm
i
.~ (DIi + D2i)(ci - w)k
1
The values of DI. and D2. are Kiven in Tables IA Co 4A.
l 1
Note chat the values of w given in the above Cable are
boundary values i.e. w - time of appearanct of lec c,--~ur.
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
-.O:

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

-75-
TABLE 12A
GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST OF THE PARAMETER VALUES
SHOWN IN TABLES IOA AND llA
Group
BP. 13 weeks1
BP. 26 weeks
o
DBA 13 weeks1
DBA 26 weeks
All Tumours
×2
8.99
4.74
SiEnif icance Z
73.84
63.57
Malisnanc Tumours
X2
17.66
12.69
Significance Z
98.93
92.75
m
BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

IrlG, I RD 12~E-R
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BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

• °
PLOT OF' £, C b') VERSUS ~n ('CLOSE) ,TANUS ~')(PERIMENT Bb/B'/
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BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

MALIGNANT TUMOUR$
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BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

FIG. 4 RD =2~a-R
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BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION

FIG.S RD ~2J2-~
PLOT OF" .OnCb~ VERSUS CUTS PER INCH. ,TANU5 EXPERIMENT B/o/B7
ALL TUMOURS
£n(b~
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BAT Co LTD - MINNE._,C~TA TOBACCO LITIGATION
CO
c..,-i

INDEX
HAS
INDICATED
GAP IN
BATES
RANGE
HERE

BAT Co LTD - MINNESOTA TOBACCO LITIGATION
