Tobacco Documents Online

u,",J lgI SIAII~ (,O%1 b.b, Ml~i DJ.:I'AKT,;II:NT Oi tlI.:AI.'J I[, I:l)UG../l JOX, AN'I) WI~LIJ.'.\I pIJ11LIC Ili %1"1 II SI A- T TO FKOM The Seqretary ,S;.., ' -'J/ DATE: SlI~][Cl": Pointer on pllyslcSan sri~oklng for ~0 on U.S. Nall trucks Tim pLLbIJc HealLh Service statement that I00,000 physicians have stopped !;.,!o'.'.ing c ,•~a~Ptte? ~s bavcd ~n l~rgO part on tll~ survey of practicing pl/ystc~nns conducted Cot the I']lS by tlle National Opinion Research Ceut~r ~t the UvgversJ.ty of Chicago. A sample of 5,000 practicing physicians was selected iron the 2?,2,569 listed in the American Ncdicai Association Directory, They were ~en~ ~aJ]. que~tioL~nalt•es mild. after the third ~k~fllng, 1,867 had responded. Of tile 3~133 nonrestloilden[s~ all attempt was vlade [a l'eoc]l a ran(]o~ sample of 682. Of these, 275 ~:erc, in fact, interviewed by telephone. The percentage of former s;:,okors among the mail resl, ond,~nts was 39.3%; amol~g the telephon~ rcspoudet~¢s, it Was 34,5~, ERtrapolating to the sample of 5,000 the proportloi~ of forr, l~r s~Ioke~s wa,, 36,3~. U~ug lowe~ ~ILd upper bounds, one standard orrot" he]OIl mild at,ov% resl, ect~vcly, the percentages rot. practicing physicians are 33.4Z (lower bound) to 39.2Y, (upper bouud) or 81,018 to 95~037. See l~ne one of the attached table, In order to broaden the popul0tlon base b~yond practlcinC physJcian8, it W3S est~mzited that a[Pong r~s~dtnts and interns the ilrol)orl.to~ of £ormcr sr~okers is 257° (l~u~s 2 and 3 of the table), ~'hi~, vstl ~ is based on a survey of the 1964 graduating class of l,edical students. ~'h~.~ ~,'a~ a _to.t:~ ful'vey~ not <1 salnplel IiJth ~ responae Iale of [~fll'~ than 807.. To reflect forlnor smokers a.losg the rc]atlvely shall number of rcilrcd physicians and others not in practice (about 1~,000), iI was estir~/ed that the proportion of fot~,~er ~r~o]:ors in these groups ~¢ould be the ~a~le as that for practicing physicians (liues h and 5 of the table shot~ this calculation). Because the retired and mlsce]]ancous groups at{ so small, no reasonable estimate would result in ~ shift of note than 1,O00 In the" flnal est~Hatc,. ............. mv z ................

- 2 - Adding tlle ex-smo~crs within tile five groups of physicians, an estit~lt~ of aver 10'~,000 ex-s~lo~ers Is calcu]nt.tl a~gong all physicians. The upper and loller bollnds of the co[,!bin~d est~m~Lc. t~l{~ll$, onn ~£nnd~rl d~vJ.qtio:] abuve ~nd bc]o:l the [2~n .[o~_~,1e4~ ~£f .L.hz._f~5[~ ejit:ij~atq% Jf appro.:iu,,/tcly 97,000 to lt2,0OO, t, von if CUe we]re [o aSSUlrO [tlat the pereellcago o~ ex-smohers amoi~g those ~'eptesented b~' the! tlo~l'es[baJoltts to tile telephot~e intervJe'~ uns as low as 297. (as eorapared CO the 39.37, tn the respondents to the lga]'] fitlrl.,ey~ or ~]lp 31~.~l, az, ang re~pottrl-~nh$ to tlle telep]lolle stlrvey)~ the tot~tl e.%tin3tt, !4utlld still re.~ct 100,000. The I00,000 est{l'~ate represenrios 33.1% or nl] p]lys~e~ans eotnpares with slmila~ surveys among physin~nns Jn Flor~da (45.1% for~e~ smokers based oil a 60~ reslJonga)~ In PJnode Island (35.87* based on a 70~ response); and in California (38.3~ based on t 677~ response° The Ca]ifern~a stlrvey ~nvolved a ot~e-otlt-of-eve~-y-~-~:~ Snlnp]e al/ong p]~ysJe~nns in th:~t S~nto. 3'he studies in Flot'ida and ~hnde ~s~and ~'cre ~.ot~] surveys nmotlZ the entire physiclal~ poptliation~ In addition, the gmer~eal* Cancer Society milllen-person stt~dy, [noludil~g 3,77[ physicians foilow0d [or six )'ears, showed approxi- mately 367. as ex-e~garetle smo]~ers it* 1965o The Pt~blJc ]II!alt]l Service fiottt'e of 100~O00, ~her(.[,ire, is ~¢el] ~tlpported as a reason:tble miltJ~}u~l estimate of tb( true nun:bet of former smo~er~ ~nlong physicial~s ill the Unlit4 States. E~osttrc